I’ve changed my mind about going long gold. While the possibility still exists that they “could” do the dollar devaluation over the weekend and cause gold to soar up 40% the odds don’t favor it. Nor do the facts I’ve accumulated over from prior history.
Therefore, after much soul searching last night, I’m going to stick to my original plan and do nothing today. I will not take any position at all until Monday or Tuesday, and that position will be a short position on the market.
I can not let myself get distracted from the evidence even if it is accurate information. While many people with the best intentions come forward and share information that they believe is credible I can’t take it as fact. It could be inaccurate, and even if it is correct I don’t know the time frame.
I’m only concerned about the short term (meaning the next couple of weeks) and I must stick with the facts I have at hand. Those facts are: Legatus, FOMC, and ritual “elevens”.
While the market hasn’t always turned during or just after a Legatus meeting it has do it about 80% of the time over the past 4 years. And while all significant tops don’t happen on “eleven” days the past 3 important ones have.
The same holds true for FOMC days as many (not all) are important turn dates. When you combine all three together into the same time frame you have very high odds for a big turn in the market. So while I can’t know which direction that turn will be the extremely overbought conditions say it should be down.
So if all goes as planned we should have one more important top on Tuesday the 23rd and then we should sell off similar to the May 1st, 2012 drop. That was about 13 down days with only 1 positive close in the middle of the sell off. I’m expecting something to happen just like that, and it could be worst.
As for today, I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t turn this back up by the end of the day and possibly close in the green or even. Then Monday could (and should) be a nice “all up” day… leaving Tuesday to put in the “topping tail” and allow the real sell off to happen.
So, I’m not wasting my money on a gold hedge as I don’t think we are going to have that bank holiday over the weekend causing gold to soar and the dollar to get crushed. I’m staying in cash until I’m ready to short on Monday or Tuesday.
I’ll keep an eye on volune of gold tommorrow… it certaibly isi odd, but I think someone would be blowing a lot more then 100k on it if they knew that was about to happen.
That “IS” the plan Anthony. I will only buy the gold longs as a hedge against a possible dollar devaluation over weekend. If nothing happens then I’ll sell them on Monday and go short the market.
Red, if you think they’d do the devaluation over the weekend, and sell off after the 23rd, then why don’t you bet heavily for the devaluation tomorrow, and if it doesn’t happen, you close out and open your shorts when your funds clear on Tuesday?
The Legatus Tigers just swept the Yankees out of the playoffs. Maybe they’re just the semi-Legatus Tigers now since the previous owner was the Legatus founder. He sold the team in 1992 but they’re both pizza biz bros from the Detroit area and then throw in Mitt whose Bain Capital bought Dominos from the L.founder back around 1987 and it’s just a small little world with many coincidences.
I’ve changed my mind about going long gold. While the possibility still exists that they “could” do the dollar devaluation over the weekend and cause gold to soar up 40% the odds don’t favor it. Nor do the facts I’ve accumulated over from prior history.
Therefore, after much soul searching last night, I’m going to stick to my original plan and do nothing today. I will not take any position at all until Monday or Tuesday, and that position will be a short position on the market.
I can not let myself get distracted from the evidence even if it is accurate information. While many people with the best intentions come forward and share information that they believe is credible I can’t take it as fact. It could be inaccurate, and even if it is correct I don’t know the time frame.
I’m only concerned about the short term (meaning the next couple of weeks) and I must stick with the facts I have at hand. Those facts are: Legatus, FOMC, and ritual “elevens”.
While the market hasn’t always turned during or just after a Legatus meeting it has do it about 80% of the time over the past 4 years. And while all significant tops don’t happen on “eleven” days the past 3 important ones have.
The same holds true for FOMC days as many (not all) are important turn dates. When you combine all three together into the same time frame you have very high odds for a big turn in the market. So while I can’t know which direction that turn will be the extremely overbought conditions say it should be down.
So if all goes as planned we should have one more important top on Tuesday the 23rd and then we should sell off similar to the May 1st, 2012 drop. That was about 13 down days with only 1 positive close in the middle of the sell off. I’m expecting something to happen just like that, and it could be worst.
As for today, I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t turn this back up by the end of the day and possibly close in the green or even. Then Monday could (and should) be a nice “all up” day… leaving Tuesday to put in the “topping tail” and allow the real sell off to happen.
So, I’m not wasting my money on a gold hedge as I don’t think we are going to have that bank holiday over the weekend causing gold to soar and the dollar to get crushed. I’m staying in cash until I’m ready to short on Monday or Tuesday.
APPLE Testing the cloud: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/10/apple-chart-analysis.html
GOOGLE Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/10/google-chart-analysis.html
Pastor Williams points to momentous events in monetary geopolitics that slipped with little notice while the political class was holding their dog and pony show.
http://lindseywilliams101.blogspot.com/2012/10/lindsey-williams-on-radio-liberty-10-06.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EZLqkT-IzzQ
I’ll keep an eye on volune of gold tommorrow… it certaibly isi odd, but I think someone would be blowing a lot more then 100k on it if they knew that was about to happen.
That “IS” the plan Anthony. I will only buy the gold longs as a hedge against a possible dollar devaluation over weekend. If nothing happens then I’ll sell them on Monday and go short the market.
Red, if you think they’d do the devaluation over the weekend, and sell off after the 23rd, then why don’t you bet heavily for the devaluation tomorrow, and if it doesn’t happen, you close out and open your shorts when your funds clear on Tuesday?
Driskell’s #==6 to Tebow’s #15(6).
The Legatus Tigers just swept the Yankees out of the playoffs. Maybe they’re just the semi-Legatus Tigers now since the previous owner was the Legatus founder. He sold the team in 1992 but they’re both pizza biz bros from the Detroit area and then throw in Mitt whose Bain Capital bought Dominos from the L.founder back around 1987 and it’s just a small little world with many coincidences.
Nothing is ever easy I guess… but we’re getting better I think.