The average move down lately has been 65 points or so on the SPX before any real bounce. So if we do the same here then all intraday “brief” bounces are just shorting opportunities until we reach 65 points or so. Of course “if” this really is a wave 3 down then we could expect a deeper move down then just 65 points, but that’s a starting point.
Yes, I think we will go down first. Not sure about the rally yet as the high may already be in. Let’s see how far down we go before we forecast the rally. If it stops around 1350 and then goes back up then we could take out the recent high.
But if it continues down then we could have put in the high on the 19th. Remember that the 19th was a ritual “eleven” day and many (not all) previous highs were put in on an “eleven” day.
With the Olympics starting this week it would make sense to have already put in the high and to start the first smaller wave 1 down inside this larger wave 3 down. Then bounce back up for the smaller wave 2 up during the Olympics.
This all sets up the market for a multiple wave 3 down on some day during the 2 week period that the games are going on. So, “if” they do actually pull off some type of False Flag event then the market will be perfectly setup for a nasty sell off.
As far as ritual days during the Olympics, I’m looking at July 29th and August 11th… the most obvious dates. But, August 9th is an “eleven” date too… which isn’t obvious to everyone, and it’s a date that the market is open on too.
Hard too say for sure as I’m really leaning toward nothing bad happening during the games as I think it’s gotten too much attention on the internet. But that still doesn’t change what the charts are lining up for from a technical point of view and EW count.
ES Update:
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/07/es-update.html
Possible FP of 135.78 SPY as the target for this bounce…
http://screencast.com/t/nKYFpXCrB8AO
Refresh page for new video…
I’m doing a new technical analysis video now. It should be up in less then an hour.
The average move down lately has been 65 points or so on the SPX before any real bounce. So if we do the same here then all intraday “brief” bounces are just shorting opportunities until we reach 65 points or so. Of course “if” this really is a wave 3 down then we could expect a deeper move down then just 65 points, but that’s a starting point.
I think the high is in Anthony. 🙂
ES Chart analysis:
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/07/es-near-channel-bottom.html
futures selling off pretty hard
GOLD Chart analysis:
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/07/gold-chart-analysis.html
Yes, I think we will go down first. Not sure about the rally yet as the high may already be in. Let’s see how far down we go before we forecast the rally. If it stops around 1350 and then goes back up then we could take out the recent high.
But if it continues down then we could have put in the high on the 19th. Remember that the 19th was a ritual “eleven” day and many (not all) previous highs were put in on an “eleven” day.
With the Olympics starting this week it would make sense to have already put in the high and to start the first smaller wave 1 down inside this larger wave 3 down. Then bounce back up for the smaller wave 2 up during the Olympics.
This all sets up the market for a multiple wave 3 down on some day during the 2 week period that the games are going on. So, “if” they do actually pull off some type of False Flag event then the market will be perfectly setup for a nasty sell off.
As far as ritual days during the Olympics, I’m looking at July 29th and August 11th… the most obvious dates. But, August 9th is an “eleven” date too… which isn’t obvious to everyone, and it’s a date that the market is open on too.
Hard too say for sure as I’m really leaning toward nothing bad happening during the games as I think it’s gotten too much attention on the internet. But that still doesn’t change what the charts are lining up for from a technical point of view and EW count.