Nice chart San. I’m expecting a false breakout through the resistance line on that triangle you’ve drawn. Up to the FP on the SPY of 138.41 is totally possibly but it’s going to be tough getting through the 1370 SPX area (about 137 SPY).
That whole area looks to me to be the best place to go short. It’s common actually to see false breakouts as they are designed to clear out the bears’ stops and trap the bulls. With that prior SPY high of 137.51 several weeks back a quick move up to 138.41 would certainly clear out the stops.
By that time the short and medium term charts will all be very, very overbought and a nice wave down should follow. The support levels on the way down are far and few between too… so the move should gather a lot of steam once it gets started.
Add in the fact that this Thursday is another ritual “eleven” day (thanks to Leopisa for catching it… I overlooked it) and you have the makings for a bear feast here soon.
They do it all the time Anthony. The bears see the big up day and assume it will go down the next day. So they short at the close looking for a gap down that turns into a gap up (to take them out of their shorts) followed by the sell off they expected (but of course they aren’t short anymore and miss it).
And you might get your chance if Bernanke causes a rally tomorrow where the daily chart closes out with a “solid white candle”. The reason is that past history shows that there is usually a “slightly” higher high the next day following an “all up day”… which would give you a chance to short Thursday morning at the “pop” open.
Yeah lets see.. tend to like the weekly options. so that would be a big risk, but I’ll probably do a small position. waiting to see how the games play out…. After that, I’ll throw a nice donation your way for the insightful posts/thoughts
But don’t be surprised if we see a big down day on Thursday. It’s a ritual “eleven” and the charts are way overbought therefore supporting the move down. After that… who knows?
we’ll see how it plays out, but I’m thinking we hit, and maybe pass?, that FP next week… Too early to tell right now though. We’ll see what crap reptilian Bernanke has to say tomorrow.
We still have the 138.41 SPY FP to keep an eye on too, as although I see the next level of resistance at 1368-1370 SPX… so does all the other bears. Rarely do they let them in on a big move down, which means all those bears that have stops just above 1370 will be cleared out first.
Nice chart San. I’m expecting a false breakout through the resistance line on that triangle you’ve drawn. Up to the FP on the SPY of 138.41 is totally possibly but it’s going to be tough getting through the 1370 SPX area (about 137 SPY).
That whole area looks to me to be the best place to go short. It’s common actually to see false breakouts as they are designed to clear out the bears’ stops and trap the bulls. With that prior SPY high of 137.51 several weeks back a quick move up to 138.41 would certainly clear out the stops.
By that time the short and medium term charts will all be very, very overbought and a nice wave down should follow. The support levels on the way down are far and few between too… so the move should gather a lot of steam once it gets started.
Add in the fact that this Thursday is another ritual “eleven” day (thanks to Leopisa for catching it… I overlooked it) and you have the makings for a bear feast here soon.
🙂
SPY Chart update:
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/07/spy-chart-analysis.html
They do it all the time Anthony. The bears see the big up day and assume it will go down the next day. So they short at the close looking for a gap down that turns into a gap up (to take them out of their shorts) followed by the sell off they expected (but of course they aren’t short anymore and miss it).
Ha. That would be pretty nice, and a good way to trick people.
Thanks… 🙂
And you might get your chance if Bernanke causes a rally tomorrow where the daily chart closes out with a “solid white candle”. The reason is that past history shows that there is usually a “slightly” higher high the next day following an “all up day”… which would give you a chance to short Thursday morning at the “pop” open.
Yeah lets see.. tend to like the weekly options. so that would be a big risk, but I’ll probably do a small position. waiting to see how the games play out…. After that, I’ll throw a nice donation your way for the insightful posts/thoughts
But don’t be surprised if we see a big down day on Thursday. It’s a ritual “eleven” and the charts are way overbought therefore supporting the move down. After that… who knows?
we’ll see how it plays out, but I’m thinking we hit, and maybe pass?, that FP next week… Too early to tell right now though. We’ll see what crap reptilian Bernanke has to say tomorrow.
We still have the 138.41 SPY FP to keep an eye on too, as although I see the next level of resistance at 1368-1370 SPX… so does all the other bears. Rarely do they let them in on a big move down, which means all those bears that have stops just above 1370 will be cleared out first.
yeah.. They usually come out thursday