I’m agreement that we should see the low either today or tomorrow. I personally think we’ll hit that 1310 area before we rally into next week, but the low could already be in? If they sell off into the close today then we should continue into Friday morning with a gap down. Then by midday we could see the low and a rally should start to close Friday out with a bottoming tail candle (assuming that doesn’t happen today?)
So what are you thinking Donnie? You saying that you are suspicious of more selling, or suspicious of any rally? Doesn’t the tick usually go well below -1000 before the selling stops?
as of 10:30 EST the adv-dec ratio and uvol-dvol ratio is looking ok/good for continued sell off today. However, the tick hasn’t hit -1000 yet today and the trin is not acting the way it should on a down day – YET! Trin may come around if the sell off continues but for now it’s suspicious. JMO
Doesn’t look like we are going to have that brief bounce after all. In fact, today is looking like it’s going to be a solid down day. We had our “pause” day yesterday as we closed with a doji candle on the daily chart. So today we should have a long red candle.
Sure we could rally up too and start the short squeeze, but we haven’t had any real volume on these daily down moves. Without a “capitulation” day (heavy volume) I just don’t see yesterday (or a quick gap down and reversal today) being the end of the selling.
And unless I’m missing something, I don’t see any real support until around 1310 area. That’s quite a bit further down yet. Also, the previous move down from the 1422 high on April 2nd to the low on April 10th was 65 points. If we do something similar then the from the top at 1375 on July 5th should put the bottom at 1310. So, shorting the bounce seems logical to me…
So far all I see is a bear flag forming with more downside likely to happen. Sure we should rally up some, but if we just chop sideways all day tomorrow we will fall hard once the short term charts work off the oversold conditions.
I don’t think they went up far enough, yet, to stop out the bears…. So, I say we still push up a bit tomorrow and line up for one nice start to a wave down for Friday the 13th- go figure
Sheesh… that was scary! Looks like the PPT is coming in to save the day now as the selling seems to have died down. However, this could change the outlook a little. They could rally up tomorrow much less then previously expected and only ride just below the rising trendline of support (now turned resistance as it’s clearly broken now).
This could take most of the day tomorrow and just put in another bear flag allowing for a hard drop into the close or on Friday. The market now has too recapture the broken trendline of support and go through the downward sloping trendline of resistance.
Mr. TopStep….
http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/07/07-12-2012-mid-day-update/?utm_source=wordtwitpro-onwebsite-s&utm_campaign=wordtwitpro-onwebsite-c&utm_medium=wordtwitpro-onwebsite-m
I’m agreement that we should see the low either today or tomorrow. I personally think we’ll hit that 1310 area before we rally into next week, but the low could already be in? If they sell off into the close today then we should continue into Friday morning with a gap down. Then by midday we could see the low and a rally should start to close Friday out with a bottoming tail candle (assuming that doesn’t happen today?)
So what are you thinking Donnie? You saying that you are suspicious of more selling, or suspicious of any rally? Doesn’t the tick usually go well below -1000 before the selling stops?
as of 10:30 EST the adv-dec ratio and uvol-dvol ratio is looking ok/good for continued sell off today. However, the tick hasn’t hit -1000 yet today and the trin is not acting the way it should on a down day – YET! Trin may come around if the sell off continues but for now it’s suspicious. JMO
Just a reminder…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/fp-dollar-86-47-on-04-28-2011-date-one-day-in-the-future.png
When hit I’d say the sell off in the market is over with.
Good morning all…
Doesn’t look like we are going to have that brief bounce after all. In fact, today is looking like it’s going to be a solid down day. We had our “pause” day yesterday as we closed with a doji candle on the daily chart. So today we should have a long red candle.
Sure we could rally up too and start the short squeeze, but we haven’t had any real volume on these daily down moves. Without a “capitulation” day (heavy volume) I just don’t see yesterday (or a quick gap down and reversal today) being the end of the selling.
And unless I’m missing something, I don’t see any real support until around 1310 area. That’s quite a bit further down yet. Also, the previous move down from the 1422 high on April 2nd to the low on April 10th was 65 points. If we do something similar then the from the top at 1375 on July 5th should put the bottom at 1310. So, shorting the bounce seems logical to me…
ES Chart update:
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/07/es-chart-update.html
So far all I see is a bear flag forming with more downside likely to happen. Sure we should rally up some, but if we just chop sideways all day tomorrow we will fall hard once the short term charts work off the oversold conditions.
I don’t think they went up far enough, yet, to stop out the bears…. So, I say we still push up a bit tomorrow and line up for one nice start to a wave down for Friday the 13th- go figure
SPX Analysis after close:
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2012/07/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_12.html
Sheesh… that was scary! Looks like the PPT is coming in to save the day now as the selling seems to have died down. However, this could change the outlook a little. They could rally up tomorrow much less then previously expected and only ride just below the rising trendline of support (now turned resistance as it’s clearly broken now).
This could take most of the day tomorrow and just put in another bear flag allowing for a hard drop into the close or on Friday. The market now has too recapture the broken trendline of support and go through the downward sloping trendline of resistance.