So far all is going as expected. I think we just had a “B” wave down with “A” wave up being from the 7/10 low of 1330.50 (ES) to the 7/11 high of 1342.50 (yes, I realize that we actually violated EW by going a little lower on this “B” wave down and making a new low of 1330.25, but I think the gangsters do that to trick us).
At this point we need to see a “C” wave start into the close and into tomorrow morning that shouldn’t go past the downward sloping trendline that is currently just below 1350 ES and falling.
You can say that they took out all the bulls’ stops that we’re hoping for QE3 just now with this “B” wave down, and the “C” up will take out all the bears’ stops that seen the bear flag and shorted the market at the top of the “A” wave up.
Once both bulls and bears are out of their positions the market will be free to fall hard into a nasty wave 3 of 3… which I see happening tomorrow sometime. The only thing that would change my mind is a gap up over that falling trendline of resistance. It should fall to “just above 1345” by tomorrow morning if I guessing.
Gap over that and this forecast is wrong. Fail to gap up and I see an 80% chance that the falling trendline will stop the bulls and allow for another wave of selling to start.
Bernanke speaks today at 2pm of the rehash of Junes’ FOMC meeting. Assuming he says nothing again, and just has “promises” of QE3, but not actually implementing it… then we should see a brief rally on “hopes” into the close, then reality sit in tomorrow morning… and finally, down we go!
Looks like the spiral charts agree that a turn should happen tomorrow… http://spiraldates.com/ My thoughts are the same… quick rally to 1350-1353 area, followed by a wave 3 of 3 down.
I’d agree. The sub 1,000 level makes sense to really milk the impact of another easing. No matter what’s said today, i still see QE3 in August, so they’re going to have to make things look pretty ugly first.. Shedding 3-400 points off the s&p would be pretty ugly. Possible? I think so
I think we are going to rally up to about 1353 SPX (1350 ES) tomorrow followed by a nasty wave 3 of 3 down. That FP of 138.41 is going to have to wait as I don’t see it hitting anytime soon.
There is a downward sloping trendline that should stop the bulls around that 1350-1353 area, which also makes a triangle when you include the rising trendline of support that the market is currently riding.
If this rally does happen then what follows will be very ugly. So maybe my rally call will play out tomorrow morning followed by the wave 3 of 3 call as I explain in the video?
Uh oh… looks like wave 3 of 3 could be starting now! Not sure yet? They love to fake us out…
So far all is going as expected. I think we just had a “B” wave down with “A” wave up being from the 7/10 low of 1330.50 (ES) to the 7/11 high of 1342.50 (yes, I realize that we actually violated EW by going a little lower on this “B” wave down and making a new low of 1330.25, but I think the gangsters do that to trick us).
At this point we need to see a “C” wave start into the close and into tomorrow morning that shouldn’t go past the downward sloping trendline that is currently just below 1350 ES and falling.
You can say that they took out all the bulls’ stops that we’re hoping for QE3 just now with this “B” wave down, and the “C” up will take out all the bears’ stops that seen the bear flag and shorted the market at the top of the “A” wave up.
Once both bulls and bears are out of their positions the market will be free to fall hard into a nasty wave 3 of 3… which I see happening tomorrow sometime. The only thing that would change my mind is a gap up over that falling trendline of resistance. It should fall to “just above 1345” by tomorrow morning if I guessing.
Gap over that and this forecast is wrong. Fail to gap up and I see an 80% chance that the falling trendline will stop the bulls and allow for another wave of selling to start.
The first move is “usually” the “fakeout” move…
Probably (possible) future outcome…
http://screencast.com/t/voN8c6frcxd
That’s one way to make sure the vast majority lose money on this…wouldn’t surprise me
Bernanke speaks today at 2pm of the rehash of Junes’ FOMC meeting. Assuming he says nothing again, and just has “promises” of QE3, but not actually implementing it… then we should see a brief rally on “hopes” into the close, then reality sit in tomorrow morning… and finally, down we go!
You think we’ll start dropping tomorrow? or begin on friday?
Looks like the spiral charts agree that a turn should happen tomorrow…
http://spiraldates.com/ My thoughts are the same… quick rally to 1350-1353 area, followed by a wave 3 of 3 down.
I’d agree. The sub 1,000 level makes sense to really milk the impact of another easing. No matter what’s said today, i still see QE3 in August, so they’re going to have to make things look pretty ugly first.. Shedding 3-400 points off the s&p would be pretty ugly. Possible? I think so
I think we are going to rally up to about 1353 SPX (1350 ES) tomorrow followed by a nasty wave 3 of 3 down. That FP of 138.41 is going to have to wait as I don’t see it hitting anytime soon.
There is a downward sloping trendline that should stop the bulls around that 1350-1353 area, which also makes a triangle when you include the rising trendline of support that the market is currently riding.
If this rally does happen then what follows will be very ugly. So maybe my rally call will play out tomorrow morning followed by the wave 3 of 3 call as I explain in the video?