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... Red Dragon Leo

This is the week prior to the monthly options expiration and there is typically a low put in on the Thursday or Friday prior to it, which is this week. So I’m inclined to believe we are still range bound with another move down yet to come. After a low this coming Thursday or Friday then I’d expect next week to rally up strongly with better chance at making a new higher high.

However, we still need to hold the rising trendline on the weekly chart that started in 2011 which is around 2050 SPX from the looks of it. So this Friday needs to be above that area by the close of that day. It’s entirely possible that we’ll go down 10-20 points below that on Thursday or Friday morning and then rally up to save the weekly chart for a close on/above that trendline.

So I’m not sure if we’ll get a gap up Tuesday (tomorrow) or not, but if we do I think we’ll run into a strong resistance level and start our trip back down the rest of the day into Thursday/Friday. There’s not been any real “washout” on the bottom area yet and I really think we’ll take out all the bulls that are long with stops under the 2039, 2040, 2045, and 2048 quad bottom levels recently.

Meaning around 10-20 points below those levels seems likely so all those bulls will be taken out and then we’ll start a powerful rally into the rest of this week and next week. New highs then can happen as there will be plenty of bulls not long (as they got their stops hit) and will have to buy at higher levels, which will hit more bear buy stops and of course that’s how you get a fire going strongly on the bull side.

SkyNet hasn’t been giving us traders (bulls and bears) many chances on gap ups to short so we could top today? Today was the first gap I’ve seen in awhile that was a buying opportunity. Lately all the gaps (up or down) have been a continuation in that direction the rest of the day. This time they reversed and went the other direction.

So I think SkyNet is flipping back to gaps and then a reversal in the other direction for awhile. Up until today the program has been set to gap and go as we’ve seen many times in the recent past. I recall a day where we went up about 30 points, closed around the high and then gaped down the next day and continued down the rest of that day and into the next day.

I think that’s change now back to the old program of a gap and a reversal instead of a gap and go. So if we gap up tomorrow and hit around 2100 SPX or 210 SPY I think we’ll reverse and go back down the rest of the day.

Today it happened right at the open but it really happened on Friday with the NFP report and the sharp move down in the future. Tomorrow I doubt that we’ll see some perfect short entry with a gap up to 2100 right at the open, as I’m sure it will be trickery then that.

Possibly a small gap down and then a rally into midday to top out around 2100 and then a rollover the rest of the day to start the move down into the Thurs/Fri low? I’ve seen that pattern a lot recently, but I don’t know if it’s still in play or not? I do think SkyNet runs certain patterns for several weeks and then switches to a new game book.

Regardless of the way it happens I don’t see any short from the current levels as we aren’t up high enough in my opinion. But I also don’t see any gap down tomorrow being a “continuation” move either. Meaning it will likely be bought up this time as later comer bulls buy and bears exit… which should give us another push up in the market.

... Red Dragon Leo

Bear squeeze… typical I guess when you have such light volume.

... Geccko23

Most of those guys on the Wisconsin team looked like they were straight out of the 1986 Hoosiers flick (50s era crew cuts etc.)..which might have been intentional…..never seen the movie though, only clips. They played a very Bobby Knight disclipined style….no point gaurd dominating the ball, moving the ball round, playing strong fundamentals, defensive positioning and rebounding.

... Geccko23

Well, I am glad that I am wrong and that the KU 1 and Doners were eliminated by Wisconsin tonight because I really wouldn’t have enjoyed a Duke-Kentucky final.

Watching Wisconsin play, it is apparent that they are the surrogate team for the 1987 champ Indiana Hoosiers. A Big 10 team from a small rural Midwest state led by a college Player of the Year (#44), they play almost identical to the Hoosiers team from the 1986 flick Hoosiers (which I guess served a double purpose as a grand ritual and lesser grand ritual flick—predicting both the following year Indiana NCAA championship as well as the little #87 event). They play a pure fundamental, disciplined style in contrast to the free wheeling One and Doners. Lesser athletes, they held their defensive positions and pulled down defensive rebounds in the face of overwhelming athleticism and moved the ball around on offense keeping the 1 and Doners spaced across the floor where the defensive prowess was neutralized.

This matchup, I guess would be similar to Indiana’s first matchup in the 1987 Final Four against the Running Rebels of UNLV helmed by another coach with questionable ethics/ recruiting methods (although I believe Jerry Tarkanian has been overly maligned over the years) that should have demonstrated superior athleticism.

Wisconsin is a veteran team and I now expect them to handle Duke, another youngish team like Kentucky. Duke playing the role of Syracuse, the 1987 runner up. Syracuse having moved to the ACC recently.

Kentucky coach Calipari thought the operators had his back with the universal praise his team was receiving from the pundits. Their undefeated streak ended, the Indiana team from ’76 remains the last undefeated college basketball team. Of course, Kentucky was bound to lose because too much money was behind them ala the undefeated UNLV team from 1992 that lost to Laettner’s Duke team in the Final Four (after being destroyed by UNLV in the title game the year before) (with reports that a certain star player for UNLV had been bought off).

... Geccko23

Well, when you can’t bring 1987 champ Indiana to the Final Four, you bring the Final 4 to Indiana(polis) with an attendant political controversy attached to the site.
It’s been apparent for a while that they’re setting up a Duke-Kentucky final that harkens back to the infamous 1992 matchup between the 2 teams what with the 2 Christian Laettner documentaries and Laettner even appearing in a commercial that has been running non stop through the hoops broadcasts. It looks like they were doing sports pre-rituals even back then with my one time lookalike (I still look like that–he’s faded) Laettner #32 kicking Kentucky’s #25 during that infamous game with Laettner finishing it off later with his game winning shot. (On a side note, I read that Laettner had lost all of his NBA earnings so all this new work should be readily welcomed by him).
Of course, 1987 Final 4 coach Rick Pitino headed that Kentucky team. His current Louisville team nearly made it to the Final 4 this season. There was some blurb on yahoo, which I didn’t read, about Pitino repeating some similar experience back in 1987 with his Providence team.@@@
Bobby Knight, head coach of the ’87 Indiana team, experienced a mini ritual when it was announced that he will be announcing his final game for the 4 letter network (apparently they are not renewing his contract) with the upcoming NIT final game.

... Red Dragon Leo

If the transportation index leads the market then it’s not very bullish in my opinion: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/271819703;

... Red Dragon Leo

I see no clear direction in the market. Bulls should have broken out today, but they haven’t. That’s bearish going into next week.

... Red Dragon Leo

Tough call… but I still see a lower low tomorrow at some point. From there I’d expect a rally to squeeze out some bears. How high… don’t know? But if they don’t breakout to a new high next week then we are likely going to break that rising trendline on the weekly chart, and that should lead to a surprise sell off during a very bullish month of April.

... Scott Gifford

everyone bearish because of the blood moon as bad omen. The FED always make fools of us. I won’t be surprised a bit we move higher from Thu and into next week to see 2100. Hell we may see us hit all time high. for that reason i went long the SPX.