Forecasting this market has been nothing short of Hell lately! The market had every reason to sell off on Friday... yet it didn't? It should have sold hard on the bad un-employment numbers that were released. They didn't just miss... they missed Huge! 85,000 Non-farm Payroll jobs were lost, and the estimates were for zero or 4,000 gain! We should have have tanked!
This was one of those hands that you would have bet everything on, as you were holding 4 Ace's! Yes, we should have sold off on bad jobs numbers, and also good jobs numbers! If they were too good, that would have been looked at as negative too, as the market would have expected the government to raise interest rates. That would have also caused a sell off.
I can't express the frustration I'm feeling right now, as you can't forecast a market correctly when it's 100% rigged! Look... there has always been some manipulation in the market, every since it was created. But, this obvious manipulation is absolutely horrible for the market in the long run. It will cause a massive... and I mean massive sell off, when it finally starts! It not healthy for the market at all.
I really don't want to see the Dow at 3,000-4,000 in the next 2-3 years, but that's exactly where we are heading if we don't see some health corrections soon. I believe it's too late now, as they have printed too much money, which is going to destroy the market... and the dollar too! You may or may not have seen this video by Glen Beck? It's been around awhile now, (but it's worst now then what the graph show). Here it is again, in case you missed it...
This is truly a scary time folks! I mean like... worst then the great depression in 1929! Our dollar is going to be destroyed and replaced with the Amero Dollar... probably around 2012? These crooked government and wall street thugs are going to cause a civil war in America, because they are robbing everyone blind! What will 20-25% of the population do when they have no job and no money? Believe me... that's coming!
Go over the Chart Pattern Trader and watch his video for 01-08-2010. The real unemployment numbers are currently 17.4%, not the 10% that the government tells us. I don't want to see this happen anymore then anyone else, as it will not be a good place to live in anyone. Can you imagine the crime rate with so many people unemployed?
Yeah, I know... it sounds like I'm bitching again, but this isn't about me complaining any losses I have accrued. It's about the destruction of America as we know it. This is so "Not Healthy" for the market... that words can't describe it.
The best comparison would be that the market is a marathon runner. Each day the runner will run a little bit, with short breaks (intraday sell offs) throughout the day, and then a good rest at night when he sleeps. Then he gets back up the next day and does it again. He takes the weekend off, and gives his body time to repair itself (slight correction in the market).
Over time the runner will build up muscle (strong support levels), and achieve many miles on his long journey (healthy bull market). This is the way it should be done... but the government isn't allow this to happen. Instead, they are giving the runner shots of adrenaline to keep him running without stopping to rest. Then, they give him speed to keep him from sleeping at night too! How long can he run without a rest? What is going to happen when he finally comes down from his speed pills and adrenaline shots? Total Collapse is not a strong enough word to describe it!
I'm going to post some past statistics (from Pramod, on HOB... hope he doesn't mind?) about the week of Option Expiration for January. Not that I expect it to work, as the market is only going to go down when they let it. But, I'll post it anyway.
SPY performance during Jan OPX week-
Jan 2009: DOWN 6%
Jan 2008: DOWN 5%
Jan 2007: UP 0.5%
Jan 2006: DOWN 0.1%
Jan 2005: DOWN 1.7%
Jan 2004: UP 1.5%
Jan 2003: DOWN 3%
Jan 2002: DOWN 1.6%
Jan 2001: UP 1.8%
Jan 2000: DOWN 1.6%
Jan 1999: DOWN 2.7%
Since 1999, 8 out of 11 Jan OPX weeks were negative. Does that mean it will sell off next week? Who knows? (Answer: Obama, Tim Geithner, and Ben Bernanke... anyone got their phone number?)
I think that I might be better to throw every dollar I have in Gold and forget about the market for the next few years? It's going to be the only currency of value in the future, that's for sure. Of course gold stocks would be impossible to cash in if the market collapses in the next few years, so you really need to get physical gold coins in your hands... not paper IOU's! So, what's Gold going to be worth in the near future? Watch this video...
I will say this... I think a big move is coming next week. Question is... which way? Alex, over at AMBG Trading also has a "BIG" move coming, but he's not sure if it's up or down? Neither am I? If you are into Astrology then you should read Raymond Merriman's weekend update too. It sounds like he also believes a big move is coming. His updates are sometimes unclear, but reading it now it sounds negative.
With so much confusion in the direction of the market next week, I think people are going to all jump long or short and pile on hard. The move will surprise many... just like Friday did. I hear a lot of bulls out there now talking about 1155-1160 spx on Monday, and most of the bears are dead now. Friday drove the bears back into hibernation... myself included.
So, it's times like now that I'm just going to throw my hands up into the air and say "I don't know" what will happen next week. I'm short the USO, but that's it. If you haven't already taken a bullish or bearish position, I'd say it's too late. We will most likely gap one direction or the other on Monday. Just don't chase the tape. If it goes against you, get out when you can. If it goes in your favor, hang on as I think it will swing back and forth quite a bit before the week ends.
The bulls need positive volume coming into the market if they want to continue on up to 1250-1300, and the bears simply need to wake up and go short. Any large volume in the market now will almost definitely be selling... not buying. I just don't know how long the bulls can keep the volume low? Wake up Mr. Bear... it's feeding time!