Weekend Update…

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Forecasting this market has been nothing short of Hell lately!  The market had every reason to sell off on Friday... yet it didn't?  It should have sold hard on the bad un-employment numbers that were released.  They didn't just miss... they missed Huge!  85,000 Non-farm Payroll jobs were lost, and the estimates were for zero or 4,000 gain!  We should have have tanked!

This was one of those hands that you would have bet everything on, as you were holding 4 Ace's!  Yes, we should have sold off on bad jobs numbers, and also good jobs numbers!  If they were too good, that would have been looked at as negative too, as the market would have expected the government to raise interest rates.  That would have also caused a sell off.

I can't express the frustration I'm feeling right now, as you can't forecast a market correctly when it's 100% rigged!  Look... there has always been some manipulation in the market, every since it was created.  But, this obvious manipulation is absolutely horrible for the market in the long run.  It will cause a massive... and I mean massive sell off, when it finally starts!  It not healthy for the market at all.

I really don't want to see the Dow at 3,000-4,000 in the next 2-3 years, but that's exactly where we are heading if we don't see some health corrections soon.  I believe it's too late now, as they have printed too much money, which is going to destroy the market... and the dollar too!  You may or may not have seen this video by Glen Beck?  It's been around awhile now, (but it's worst now then what the graph show).   Here it is again, in case you missed it...

 

This is truly a scary time folks!  I mean like... worst then the great depression in 1929!  Our dollar is going to be destroyed and replaced with the Amero Dollar... probably around 2012?  These crooked government and wall street thugs are going to cause a civil war in America, because they are robbing everyone blind!  What will 20-25% of the population do when they have no job and no money?  Believe me... that's coming!

Go over the Chart Pattern Trader and watch his video for 01-08-2010.  The real unemployment numbers are currently 17.4%, not the 10% that the government tells us.  I don't want to see this happen anymore then anyone else, as it will not be a good place to live in anyone.   Can you imagine the crime rate with so many people unemployed?

Yeah, I know... it sounds like I'm bitching again, but this isn't about me complaining any losses I have accrued.  It's about the destruction of America as we know it.  This is so "Not Healthy" for the market... that words can't describe it.

The best comparison would be that the market is a marathon runner.  Each day the runner will run a little bit, with short breaks (intraday sell offs) throughout the day, and then a good rest at night when he sleeps.  Then he gets back up the next day and does it again.  He takes the weekend off, and gives his body time to repair itself (slight correction in the market).

Over time the runner will build up muscle (strong support levels), and achieve many miles on his long journey (healthy bull market).  This is the way it should be done... but the government isn't allow this to happen.  Instead, they are giving the runner shots of adrenaline to keep him running without stopping to rest.  Then, they give him speed to keep him from sleeping at night too!  How long can he run without a rest?  What is going to happen when he finally comes down from his speed pills and adrenaline shots?  Total Collapse is not a strong enough word to describe it!

I'm going to post some past statistics (from Pramod, on HOB... hope he doesn't mind?) about the week of Option Expiration for January.  Not that I expect it to work, as the market is only going to go down when they let it.  But, I'll post it anyway.

SPY performance during Jan OPX week-

Jan 2009: DOWN 6%
Jan 2008: DOWN 5%
Jan 2007: UP 0.5%
Jan 2006: DOWN 0.1%
Jan 2005: DOWN 1.7%
Jan 2004: UP 1.5%
Jan 2003: DOWN 3%
Jan 2002: DOWN 1.6%
Jan 2001: UP 1.8%
Jan 2000: DOWN 1.6%
Jan 1999: DOWN 2.7%

Since 1999, 8 out of 11 Jan OPX weeks were negative.  Does that mean it will sell off next week?  Who knows? (Answer: Obama, Tim Geithner, and Ben Bernanke... anyone got their phone number?)

I think that I might be better to throw every dollar I have in Gold and forget about the market for the next few years?  It's going to be the only currency of value in the future, that's for sure.  Of course gold stocks would be impossible to cash in if the market collapses in the next few years, so you really need to get physical gold coins in your hands... not paper IOU's!  So, what's Gold going to be worth in the near future?  Watch this video...

 

I will say this... I think a big move is coming next week.  Question is... which way?  Alex, over at AMBG Trading also has a "BIG" move coming, but he's not sure if it's up or down?  Neither am I?  If you are into Astrology then you should read Raymond Merriman's weekend update too.  It sounds like he also believes a big move is coming.  His updates are sometimes unclear, but reading it now it sounds negative.

With so much confusion in the direction of the market next week, I think people are going to all jump long or short and pile on hard.  The move will surprise many... just like Friday did.  I hear a lot of bulls out there now talking about 1155-1160 spx on Monday, and most of the bears are dead now.  Friday drove the bears back into hibernation... myself included.

So, it's times like now that I'm just going to throw my hands up into the air and say "I don't know" what will happen next week.  I'm short the USO, but that's it.  If you haven't already taken a bullish or bearish position, I'd say it's too late.  We will most likely gap one direction or the other on Monday.  Just don't chase the tape.  If it goes against you, get out when you can.  If it goes in your favor, hang on as I think it will swing back and forth quite a bit before the week ends.

The bulls need positive volume coming into the market if they want to continue on up to 1250-1300, and the bears simply need to wake up and go short.  Any large volume in the market now will almost definitely be selling... not buying.  I just don't know how long the bulls can keep the volume low?  Wake up Mr. Bear... it's feeding time!

Red

28 COMMENTS

  1. I can agree with everything you wrote and still I am bullish.
    Why?
    Because long term and in the macro view you are right but to make money trading you have to trade what you see not what you think.

    I think you are right……………….but I see a bull run and so I have to trade it.

    • I do still see the monthly chart as being bullish… on a technical basis. But, from a standpoint that the entire rally was manufactured by the PPT, with almost NO participation from the retail trader, it is just to dangerous for me to go long.

      It is also too dangerous to go short, as you know that the PPT will step in a stop any natural correction from happening… even if the technical picture says “Sell”.

      That's what makes it so hard too trade I guess? Everyone is too scared to go long or short. I'd love to go long… after a nice healthy correction. I think a lot of retail traders would jump on too, but no retail trader I know will buy at these levels. So, I guess the PPT and other crooked banksters can just continue to play ping pong with themselves.

  2. Great rant. All of the lines in the sand, all of the timing, all have been blown away. It is obvious that the PPT wants to use our tax dollar to continue the “con” game….i.e. if their is confidence, all will be good. The ramp of pimp is sad. It will result in so much more pain down the road…as you say. When will this occur? 1 week, 3 months, 7 months?

    • Yes Steveo… it's really sad when you think about. I want to make money in the market just like everyone else, but I really don't want to see 20-25% unemployment and the Dow at 3,000-4,000.

      But, I know it's coming. You can't continue to push up a sick market like this without a huge crash later on. I'm sure that the crooked banksters at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citibank, and everyone else in the “Good Ol' Boy Club” will already be positioned short when the crash comes.

      Since they ran it up to steal the trader's money mainly (aka the “Bears”), they'll crash it down too… and steal everyone else's money (aka the Bulls, and the poor Retail Investor).

      I can only hope that good people like Ron Paul and others win their courageous fight in congress and get the Federal Reserved audited… and SHUTDOWN.

      Then arrest Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, and every CEO of all these crooked banks. I fear that if these crooks aren't caught and punished, America will go to Civil War. The people will rise up and protest publicly so much that arrests will have too be made to stop the protesting… without it, I believe it will become violent.

      I hope not, but really… what do all those educated middle classed people have else to do with their time, once they no long have a job? Reading on blogs, and other news media about the corruption in the system is just going to add gasoline to the fire.

      These people aren't the stupid lazy bums who live off welfare because they are too worthless to get up and get a job. Those people are easily manipulated. Middle classed Americans are smarter, and won't be too happy when they don't have a job anymore.

      My biggest fear is that the mass riots do start happening and prison camps are established in every city in America to house these people. The government has already been preparing for this to happen.

      Why? Because they are going to let it happen, or make it happen I guess? It could be stopped if the right people were in control. I know that Ron Paul stated several times that he wouldn't have given any money to the banks.

      That (IMHO) would have been healthy as then the system would clean itself out, of all the crooked banksters…. as they would be forced into bankruptcy, and then the healthy honest bankers could fill in there shoes.

      Same thing for all the other companies that aren't healthy… like the car companies. Let them all fail, and some young blood entrepreneurs to step up to the plate with cars that people really want and will buy.

      In other words, throw out the bad apples and let the good one's breathe! Stop suffocating the good companies with high taxes, and stupid restrictions.

      Ok Steveo… that's enough ranting… again! (Sorry, but I'm passionate about saving what is left of America)

      Red

        • Yeah… they have Jerry Springer, Dancing with the Stars, America Idol, and dozens of “Reality Show” (what a joke that is) to watch to keep them distracted while the government takes away their rights and steals their money.

    • Thanks G…

      Anna is my buddy of course, but she sometimes thinks that I make my posts too long. She is a woman of course, and we all know that many women don't have the patience us guys do. They want to “get straight to the point”, and us guys sometimes like to explain things in detail.

      I've been guilty of that… as I commonly go into detail explaining something to someone when they ask. Of course that much detail isn't always needed. But, I can't help! (My mother was a teacher, so it's bread in me) LOL 🙂

  3. Hi REd,
    thanks for logging in over at jaywiz
    Venture to guess that just like the BUSH govt, Obama is leaning on GOVT figures which DONT TELL the real story.
    From about 2003 On to The HIGH in 2007, internally the COUNTRY was deteriorating, but some sectors were showing BIG increases thus SKEWING the REAL DECAY.

    Jay

    • Jay,

      Bush was just as dirty as Obama. I'm not a fan of either. I'd like to see Ron Paul for President, maybe Ross Perot for Secretary of Treasury (Someone who doesn't need to steal the taxpayer's money), and possibly someone like General Colin Powell for Secretary of Defense.

      Of we wouldn't need anyone to replace Ben Bernanke, because the Federal Reserve wouldn't be in existence any more. That power would be given back to Congress, where it belongs, as was originally setup by the Constitution (which doesn't seem to exist anymore now).

  4. Sorry to point it out to you Red but….those JAN OpEx week stats…looks to me like every third year was up…2010 up?

    But hell…I'm with you…been waiting for the next down move to begin and it's way too late to switch to the upside in my mind. Good luck.

  5. Here's my conspiracy theory for the week!
    Ron Paul people should try to take over a state, and then use a 90% state tax–
    The fed will have nothing to Tax, and after 90 days, the state can return the 90% tax as state grants.

        • Thanks K… where you been girl? Over at another blog I guess. You should stop by and say hi to Anna too (you do know I set that blog up for her?).

          I do a lot of complaining here on my blog. Especially since I'm not that good at charting, technical analysis, or forecasting… so I just bitch about corruption instead. LOL! 🙂

          • Yep, been helping DDT with the TTW blog. It's been a long time, buddy.

            I try not to complain but my thought bubble just won't let me stop lately. (wink) The corruption will necessitate a correction in the first part of February methinks. They like to control the vertical if you know what I mean.

          • I thought that's where I saw you last… (TTW). Funny how things change… it use too be mainly just Tim and Mole's blog as the primary sites that most traders go to. Now you have more separation as many of those “follower's” became leader's and started their own thing.

            David's site has grown tremendously since you went to it. Of Anna has it's own following too. Others have grown and developed their own group as well. I still go over to Alex's blog and read his forecasts (or “inverted” forecasts… LOL).

            What's even funnier is how small this community of traders really is. Although I don't have time to read the comments on all the other sites, I do know who the traders are.

            It's quite fun to talk with people all over the world, and to make friends with complete strangers. Of course it would be nice to be able to forecast this market correctly, so I could help others to profit too… but I guess everyone understands that no one has a crystal ball. 🙂

          • E-mail sent… someone has the crystal ball, but it won't be found in the usual places. 😉 This is going to bend your mind and then some.

  6. Hi Leo, I feel the powers that be will pump this mkt up some more. I have an options question for you. Do you consider butterflies to be directional trades? I have looked at a few stocks that I see more upside to. Books I read on options consider a butterfly to be a neutral trade but if you go slightly out of money they appear to have more profit potential than a straight call or put and they can be darn cheap. What is your opinion?

    • Well Suzor,

      I wouldn't want to give you my thoughts on butterflies when others are more qualified to answer that question. Keirsten is really good at complex option strategies and so is Anna, and Fujisan (if you can find her around?).

      Keirsten is here now… as you can see by the recent posts. I think she could answer your question better then me.

      As for the “powers that be” pumping the market… yes, I see more upside coming. Until they (the PPT, whoever?) gives “the word” to the big institutions to “Sell”, I think will we get a slow grind up to sideways market.

      When it comes down… Oh! It's going to surprise everyone! Just like the “Happy Thanksgivings Dubai” event. We'll see another one I believe…

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