So Far So Good…

Monica, if that happens… then 108 spy will be hit and a multi-day rally will occur. Then once it's done, you will have the perfect opportunity to get short.

Don't pay too much attention to after-hours, as the price can move a lot more then normal hours. I've seen it down 10 at night, and wake up in the morning and it is up 10.

Right now it's trading overseas, and that's why it's down. Wait to see what it's at in the morning. I don't see any big moves down until after the 2:30 pm est Wednesday FOMC meeting, and then later at night the State of the Union address… about 8 pm (I think?).

Then Thursday and Friday should sell off to 1080 spx, and maybe even pierce it intraday to lure in more bears. Don't be fooled. It's really good support at that level and should hold on the first hit (90% chance of a 2-5 day bounce).

If you want to get short, then look for the high on Wednesday. They might run it up into the FOMC meeting, and then go flat until Obama speaks at night. Of course the markets will be closed and you will need to get a position before the close.

They could sell off after the FOMC meeting, but I really think they will wait until the next day, so they can hear what Obama says.

Look for 111.50-112.00 spy as the high on Wednesday… if it gets there? I don't know if it does or not, but it shouldn't get through it. So, if it comes close to it and it's getting close to 2:30 on Wednesday, that might be the best place to go short for a move down to 108.00.

Be prepared to hold it until about Monday at the latest. If it hits 108.00 at anytime before then… get out and take your profits. Sit in cash for the following week as it will bounce higher… but not worth going long on.

I'm still short google and will get out when the market hits 1080 spx or so. The hardest thing for me to learn was to have patience and not to sell when I see the first little bit of profit.

You have to stick to your plan. I'm sticking to mine, and I know that 1080 has the highest probability of a bounce. Therefore, I will close my shorts only when it's hit.

You shouldn't go short unless you feel the market is high enough to profit from if it falls to 1080? If it falls tomorrow to 1080, then you missed your opportunity, and you should sit on the sidelines until the market retraces back up… which will take a week or so.

Don't chase this move down! Let me repeat that… Don't Chase this Move Down! If you miss it, stay out. If it retraces back up into the FOMC meeting, and you think it's high enough then you can go short, and hold until 1080.

Red

Monica, Nice play on the TNA. I know you are glad to be out. I still like TNA better for day trade.