Falling Dollar…

By Red, on March 3rd, 2010

The dollar sold off today pretty nicely, but the market didn’t rally by the same proportion. Does this mean that the dollar and the market are finally starting to disconnect? I not going to say that, but it does tell me that the selling of the dollar isn’t causing the market to rally as much as it used too.

That’s a clear indication that the market is exhausted, and ready to roll over. Look at the selling in the afternoon when the dollar was still flat (after selling off in hard in the first hour of the day), and look at the market. You will notice that the dollar never really moved much the rest of the day, but the market sold off.

Even with the light volume that the market has had recently, it is barely able to stay positive today. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and the Dow actually closed lower. However, I do believe it will go up to that 1127 level first, before any selling is going to happen. That gap needs closed, and who knows if the market will ever get back this close to it or not?

Of course after a 10-20%, we could rally back up in the summer and make new highs… as anything is possible when you can print all the money you want, and fudge any economic reports. But, that might not happen, as this market could continue down for the next few years.

Or, they really can stop “the great depression two” from happening… and I think I saw a pig fly by my window! Never mind, that was just a dream… just like the government’s plan to save the economy. The only thing I see them saving is their retirement accounts, as they are making sure those get inflated by lobbyist donations before they leave office to go to work for Goldman Sachs.

Anyway, I’m drifting off subject, as I don’t know what to tell you about tomorrow? Probably another choppy day ending flat to down, while we wait for Friday’s job’s data. That should produce a sell off if they are really bad. Of course you can’t really expect the government to release bad numbers, as they are quite easy to fudge (aka… Lie!). On the other hand… what if they want the market to sell off, as they are already positioned short. Just food for thought.

Red

Pop and Drop...

sundancer390

$SPX 60 min chart
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44057…

Yesterday afternoons reaction again backtested the controlling trendline that the market has been dancing with since 1/22/2010

with yesterday afternoons sell off that makes 2 consecutive afternoon sell offs, if we get one today then the probability of a trend week increases

sundancer390

Round 3 $SPX with controlling trendline
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44060…

LOD looks in to me, those with eagle eyes will note the low of the $SPX today

Diablos

Hi Sundancer,

Quick Q, you've mentioned tracking moving averages in multiples of 8. Do you place a higher importance on say, 640 vs 600 vs say 616, as an example.

I ask because the 1150 high seems to have bounced off the 616 and is currently at 1132.20.

Thanks in advance.

sundancer390

that's a great question, I don't place any more importance on 640 vs 600 vs 616, the sequence of MA is more important because of how the market moves between the MA in the sequence, my primary sequence involves the 640

if you remember a while back I spoke about how the controlling trendlines in the market are co-relational to MA with a multiple of 8. You just self-discovered this, if you remember a couple days ago I posted a chart with the controlling trendlines on the daily for the SPX and it showed the one that contained the market in January which is co-relational to the 616 ma and today the controlling TL is in the 1132 region.

Earl of

Carl just now;

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is again 1116-1130. I expect the market to reach 1200 over the next three months.

1116-1130 estimate today and yesterday
from here (1120.50) that's -4.5 to +9.5

Carl was flat overnight

gcocks83

Earl, are you still in TNA

Earl of

I got out yesterday.
Am back in this morning, scaling in.

gcocks83

Be careful!

Earl of

Out of TNA
gcocks83

I don't think either is a good play today.
Earl of

In TZA
gcocks83

Where is your stop? 8.26?
Earl of

about that — I have 8.27 as the pivot.

I sell on a whim though.
http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

TZA is up today, while the SPX is (barely) up and so is the dollar. Did I mention that all of this is nuts and I'm not trading it?
Earl of

I do remember that. I would do as well not to trade.
Earl of

Looks like you are right.

Earl of

Carl is Long one unit at 1119.50
sundancer390

pressure is building…

$TNX: ten year daily
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44070…
sundancer390

setup for tomorrow:

Gapping zones to watch:
SPY 112.72-112.85
113.15-113.22
above these 2 zones and it's likely to be a trend day
111.81 -111.90
below this zone and it's likely to be a trend day

remember the $SPX 1127.38 gap hasn't been filled

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

They have had the last 2 days to reach that 1127 level, yet they haven't went there? Why is that? Do they know that a lot of seller's are probably sitting at that level, and they don't want the market selling off hard yet?

It's like they are wait for something? Is it the jobs info tomorrow? Or something else? I know they could have taken it to 1127 within the last 2 days, as volume has been really light. I would really like to know what they are planning… as somethings' fishy.

Earl of

Carl at days end:

1116-1130 estimate today for /ES
1115.50 – 1123.50 actual today

Trades: Bought 1 unit of /ES 1119.50 (up 2.75 right now)
Holding it over night.

Grade: Incomplete
Earl of

TNA gapped up for the 4th day in a row. Unlike the prior three days, this time the gap was filled. The gap up was 0.5% and TNA closed up 1.1%. Lower High, Higher low.

We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA.
After four days, this trade is up 10.7%.

Volume for TNA has been trending down for 4 days now.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 2.9% lower with TNA up 1.1%.

TNA has been up 15 of the past 17 days.

The high for TNA today was 27 cents lower than yesterdays $48.98, which was the highest TNA since Oct 21st.

Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 eight trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 71. Indicating continued strength for TNA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle closed closer to the lower band and the lower Bollinger band is **off the chart**. Hard to read, but looks like $RVX is falling again, good for TNA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The candle for $RUT was beside the candle for yesterday, a sideways action after three rising candles. Pulled away from the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT might be pausing here. Indecisive.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle moved higher, in line with further upside for TNA.

http://www.americanbulls.com had TNA as a BUY on Feb 9th, and hold since then. TNA remains a hold for tomorrow.

Overall, it looks like TNA continues to move above an area of congestion and might continue rising tomorrow.

gcocks83

And the beat goes on!!!!!! Nice Post

Earl of

The ratio of TNA to TZA is now 6 to 1.

Unreal.

gcocks83

What do you make of that Earl?

Earl of

It's just a statement of which way this market has been going. UP.

I remember 1 to 1. That was a while ago.

5 to 1 didn't last very long. 7 to 1 seems to be coming soon.

bensjoyce

MID-DAY MINUTE BY MIKE PAULENOFF:
Here's Mike Paulinof today: see end

My educated guess for tomorrow is the following (Mostly about currencies)

Weaker than expected NFP (due to blizzards and forex TV yest said so) about -100K.

Typically the Euro bolts initially in a direction that is opposite to the trend that it establishes for the remainder of the day (Kathy Lien strategy). S&P drops heavily at some point perhaps due to weak employment, watch the Euro follow down.

This is hypothetical folks, but I thought I'd let you know how a really bad trader with no money operates. I'll let you know if I make a killing.

By Mike Paulenoff, http://www.MPTrader.com

It is that time again — for the bottoming of the 20-25 day cycle in the S&P 500 (SPX). The problem is that since the Feb. 5th pivot low at 1044.50, the ENTIRE cycle has been on the upside — so far. Usually, when a cycle is so lopsided to the upside, the final 1-3 sessions ahead of an anticipated low ushers in some intense weakness. Today is the 18th session off of the 2/05 low. If the current cycle proves to be 21 days in duration, then next Monday we should expect a low. If this cycle is 25 days long (like the Jan-Feb cycle), then the low could be Friday 3/12. With this Friday's Employment Report certain to create intense market volatility, and because it coincides with the “window” for a forthcoming cycle low, Mr. Market could be setting up for a serious bout of weakness starting THIS Friday into early next week.

Alternatively, if the SPX moves straight up into and in reaction to Friday's report, the technical work is warning me to sell into the news ahead of the anticipated cycle low. With the SPX up 6% since the last Employment Report (Feb 5th), the potential for a nasty correction would appear to be gaining steam. Purely from a price perspective, a decline in the SPX that breaks 1115.70 will be my first strong signal that the “downside” of the near-term cycle is in progress.
bensjoyce

forgot to mention concerning my scenerio below. The Euro bolts up due to weak employment then tanks due to a weakening (?sharply weakening) s&p
Earl of

The view from Americanbulls

Basically, the candle today resolved nothing, and the possible buy and possible sell of yesterday continue for one more day.

TNA is a SELL-IF (sell tomorrow if conditions are right). Today and yesterday formed a White Spinning Top after a Bearish (Doji) Star Pattern. Sell TNA tomorrow when it seems likely that TNA will close with a down day and with a black candlestick.

TZA is a BUY-IF (buy tomorrow if conditions are right). Today and yesterday formed a Black Spinning Top after a Bullish (Doji) Star Pattern. Buy TZA tomorrow when it seems likely that TZA will close with an up day and with a white candlestick.

monicadern

So buy TZA if it looks like it will be up and buy TNA if that looks like it will be up?!

Earl of

Monica,

I feel pretty good about buying TZA if conditions are right for the buy signal.

Buying TNA here because the sell signal failed feels awkward and iffy and 32% too late. Might work.

SC

Buying power is still exceeding selling power, as money continues to flow into leading sectors. Money is NOT flowing out. Thus, no basis for bearish position. That may change in a few days, but until then… When in doubt, follows the money.
sundancer390

setup for tomorrow:

Gapping zones to watch:
SPY 112.72-112.85
113.15-113.22
above these 2 zones and it's likely to be a trend day
111.81 -111.90
below this zone and it's likely to be a trend day

remember the $SPX 1127.38 gap hasn't been filled
Earl of

Carl at days end:

1116-1130 estimate today for /ES
1115.50 – 1123.50 actual today

Trades: Bought 1 unit of /ES 1119.50 (up 2.75 right now)
Holding it over night.

Grade: Incomplete
Earl of

TNA gapped up for the 4th day in a row. Unlike the prior three days, this time the gap was filled. The gap up was 0.5% and TNA closed up 1.1%. Lower High, Higher low.

We are in a Full Moon Trade, which favors TNA.
After four days, this trade is up 10.7%.

Volume for TNA has been trending down for 4 days now.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed 2.9% lower with TNA up 1.1%.

TNA has been up 15 of the past 17 days.

The high for TNA today was 27 cents lower than yesterdays $48.98, which was the highest TNA since Oct 21st.

Ultimate Oscillator for TNA peaked at 78 eight trading days ago and has generally fallen since then but has remained above 50 and is currently 71. Indicating continued strength for TNA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s candle closed closer to the lower band and the lower Bollinger band is **off the chart**. Hard to read, but looks like $RVX is falling again, good for TNA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The candle for $RUT was beside the candle for yesterday, a sideways action after three rising candles. Pulled away from the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that $RUT might be pausing here. Indecisive.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s candle moved higher, in line with further upside for TNA.

http://www.americanbulls.com had TNA as a BUY on Feb 9th, and hold since then. TNA remains a hold for tomorrow.

Overall, it looks like TNA continues to move above an area of congestion and might continue rising tomorrow.
gcocks83

And the beat goes on!!!!!! Nice Post
Earl of

The ratio of TNA to TZA is now 6 to 1.

Unreal.
gcocks83

What do you make of that Earl?
bensjoyce

MID-DAY MINUTE BY MIKE PAULENOFF:
Here's Mike Paulinof today: see end

My educated guess for tomorrow is the following (Mostly about currencies)

Weaker than expected NFP (due to blizzards and forex TV yest said so) about -100K.

Typically the Euro bolts initially in a direction that is opposite to the trend that it establishes for the remainder of the day (Kathy Lien strategy). S&P drops heavily at some point perhaps due to weak employment, watch the Euro follow down.

This is hypothetical folks, but I thought I'd let you know how a really bad trader with no money operates. I'll let you know if I make a killing.

By Mike Paulenoff, http://www.MPTrader.com

It is that time again — for the bottoming of the 20-25 day cycle in the S&P 500 (SPX). The problem is that since the Feb. 5th pivot low at 1044.50, the ENTIRE cycle has been on the upside — so far. Usually, when a cycle is so lopsided to the upside, the final 1-3 sessions ahead of an anticipated low ushers in some intense weakness. Today is the 18th session off of the 2/05 low. If the current cycle proves to be 21 days in duration, then next Monday we should expect a low. If this cycle is 25 days long (like the Jan-Feb cycle), then the low could be Friday 3/12. With this Friday's Employment Report certain to create intense market volatility, and because it coincides with the “window” for a forthcoming cycle low, Mr. Market could be setting up for a serious bout of weakness starting THIS Friday into early next week.

Alternatively, if the SPX moves straight up into and in reaction to Friday's report, the technical work is warning me to sell into the news ahead of the anticipated cycle low. With the SPX up 6% since the last Employment Report (Feb 5th), the potential for a nasty correction would appear to be gaining steam. Purely from a price perspective, a decline in the SPX that breaks 1115.70 will be my first strong signal that the “downside” of the near-term cycle is in progress.
bensjoyce

forgot to mention concerning my scenerio below. The Euro bolts up due to weak employment then tanks due to a weakening (?sharply weakening) s&p
Earl of

It's just a statement of which way this market has been going. UP.

I remember 1 to 1. That was a while ago.

5 to 1 didn't last very long. 7 to 1 seems to be coming soon.
Earl of

The view from Americanbulls

Basically, the candle today resolved nothing, and the possible buy and possible sell of yesterday continue for one more day.

TNA is a SELL-IF (sell tomorrow if conditions are right). Today and yesterday formed a White Spinning Top after a Bearish (Doji) Star Pattern. Sell TNA tomorrow when it seems likely that TNA will close with a down day and with a black candlestick.

TZA is a BUY-IF (buy tomorrow if conditions are right). Today and yesterday formed a Black Spinning Top after a Bullish (Doji) Star Pattern. Buy TZA tomorrow when it seems likely that TZA will close with an up day and with a white candlestick.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

They have had the last 2 days to reach that 1127 level, yet they haven't went there? Why is that? Do they know that a lot of seller's are probably sitting at that level, and they don't want the market selling off hard yet?

It's like they are wait for something? Is it the jobs info tomorrow? Or something else? I know they could have taken it to 1127 within the last 2 days, as volume has been really light. I would really like to know what they are planning… as somethings' fishy.
monicadern

So buy TZA if it looks like it will be up and buy TNA if that looks like it will be up?!
SC

Buying power is still exceeding selling power, as money continues to flow into leading sectors. Money is NOT flowing out. Thus, no basis for bearish position. That may change in a few days, but until then… When in doubt, follows the money.
Earl of

Monica,

I feel pretty good about buying TZA if conditions are right for the buy signal.

Buying TNA here because the sell signal failed feels awkward and iffy and 32% too late. Might work.
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Falling Dollar…

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