Housing Market Improving?

Contracts for pending sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in February, a survey from the National Association of Realtors showed, a rise the group said may be attributed to home buyers taking advantage of a soon-to-expire tax credit.

The Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January.  (Full Story Here… don’t waste your time).

Blah, Blah, Blah… the housing market is improving… let’s dance!

The media can spin anything into a positive… can’t they?  Believe me, the market didn’t rally because of the housing data.  Just another bullish Monday… like the last Monday, and the last Monday, and the last Monday (sorry, the record has a scratch in it… let me move the needle)

The volume was only 97 million shares on the SPY today.  Looking back, it looks too be the lightest day in the last 2 years.  Of course with such light volume, I could’ve pushed the market up with my $6.66 (from selling my dog, kid’s and wife last week… to go short with).

Volume volume volume… without it, the money in your piggy bank is enough to rally the market higher.  They should have just closed the market today, if they weren’t going to do any trading in it.  Maybe tomorrow will be the start of the coming down move?  It’s just a guessing game at this point.

The market will fall when the government wants it to fall… no sooner, no later.  It’s really that simple.  Looking back at the chart I posted on the weekend report, we do see that on just about every previous sideways trading range, the market popped higher just before the sell off began.

I thought that Thursday’s new high was enough of a pop higher before the selling, but now it seems like it still wants to go a little higher?  Was today’s new high enough?  Maybe?  I don’t know?  With the 1191-1193 spx level, and the Dow 11,000… just a hair above, it seems destine to go there.

Trying to think like they do is the hard part.  They are most likely trying to figure out what rest of the traders are thinking, so they can fool them and take their money.  So, what does the rest of us retail traders think?  I think most traders are now looking for the 200 ma above, as the next likely target.

And, since every trader has heard the old saying “Sell in May, and Go Away”… that leads me to believe that May will be an up month, which is the opposite of what most people are thinking now.  I also think that most blogs out there are now calling for more UP, mostly saying 1200 plus on the SPX.

Are they going to be right, or will the market fool them?  If they are going to be fooled again, I think it’s going to take another “big event” to get the selling started.  What will they stage this time?  When will it be?  Over the coming weekend, or sometime during the current week?  I do feel that they will surprise everyone, and a gap down on some opening day is highly likely.

So for now… we wait patiently for the big surprise to be announced.  Of course if you’re not already short, you probably won’t get a chance to get in.  You know how they pay that game by now.  I know I’ve said it before… but we are very very close now.

The Treasury notes rallied up to 4.0 % today… and that’s not something the market likes.  A reaction is coming soon.  Remember, looking back at the past 5 times this happened, 2 of the starting days were on a Wednesday, and 2 of the days were on a Friday… with only 1 on a Monday.

That leads me to think that Tuesday will be flat, and if the selling is to start this week… then Wednesday is more likely.   Let’s hope the Fed’s announce something unwelcome by the market tomorrow, as I’m really tired of this merry-go-around!

Red

Dead Bears...

No related posts.