Tic Toc Tic Toc…
Time is running out as the bulls are starting to weaken! Soon they will fall over from the poison that they’ve been given. The news out will become increasing worse, causing more panic too occur. Yes folks, the moment of reckoning, (for the bears at least), is now upon us.
One thing clear to me about today’s tape was that the big institutions are now selling. They of course know what is too come, and what news will be released in the coming days and weeks. Will it be the Job’s Claims numbers tomorrow, or some other event? I don’t know what it will be, but I suspect that we will wake up one morning to a large gap down, and the market won’t look back…
The reason blamed behind the selling around 2pm on Wednesday was that Tom Hoeing, President of the Federal Reverse Bank of Kansas, came out around 2pm est. Wednesday and stated that he thought they should raise the interest rates to 1%.
Are they preparing us for the coming meltdown? It seems so… We must keep our ears open, as they are now letting the market know ahead of time… that more bad news is coming.
So at this point, it doesn’t look like the Dow will reach the 11,000 mark, nor will the SPX reach 1200… YET! Remember, the summer months are still too come, and this current high is likely only temporary. I think we will form a rounded top on this current rally from the March, 2009 low. The real peak will probably occur in the summer, and every last bear will be dead by then.
I hope to still be around, and have successfully navigated these treacherous waters. I know many other’s will fall into the bulls’ meat grinder, as their master’s need to eat sometime… and of course they like bull steak just as well as bear steak.
Playing this game isn’t easy, as it’s designed for them to always win, and you to lose. So, you must learn to read what the dealers have in their hand, as they most definitely can see what’s in your hand.
Of course, there’s always a few who win at the table. If not, then the house couldn’t keep anyone playing the game anymore. So, beating the house isn’t an option… nor is it possible, but becoming the player that wins that hand is. You must use this knowledge to out play the other players… as they are the ones’ you can beat.
So it now seems that everyone has laid their bets on “black”, as it’s come up black for the last trillion days in a row… but I think it’s time for “red” to pop up. That’s why I’m short, and will add to my short position tomorrow, if I get the chance too.
If you are long, take your profits, and sit this one out. Give us bears a chance to dance with the pretty girl… will you?
Red
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about 5 months ago
I luv pain. In New York you have to pay for getting spanked. But you get it for free, when you trade.
I got rid of my TZA and bought some puts. Still short to the wazoo but only risking a very small % now. I am saving a ton of moolah on maalox and vaseline. Booyah!
about 5 months ago
I hope you did not give notice at the burger joint yet.
about 5 months ago
I did but ended up going back to beg for a second chance.
about 5 months ago
Dear Lord Almighty. Forget the lottery, just gimme a 200 dow pts gap down day before April OpEx.
about 5 months ago
ha ha!
about 5 months ago
your wish will probably be granted
tomorrow if the operators park the $SPX above max containment on the 60 around 1180 you'll able to sleep easy over the weekend
about 5 months ago
Hi Red, long time no talk LOL FWIW that was a serious reversal pattern today and my take is they pin the SPY between 117.01 and 119.99 most likely around 119 for OPX. After that who knows but you just have to be nimble and know your options! I have a video on a 80% winner I did on Monsanto on http://www.hotoptionbabe.com and http://www.optionsblackboard.com
about 5 months ago
once $SPX loses red containment, it's a long fall to yellow
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45033...
about 5 months ago
Gere64,
I believe the probabilities are derived from the trading history. I've found people on both sides of the issue.
I really don't believe the market is a coin toss, although that would explain why things seem so unpredictable
This is not a good place to slam someone for their belief system. Everyone here gets to believe whatever theory they like most, and we like it that way.
If you really hate the statistics aspect, it's ok to say so one time, but then let it go. Easier said than done.
about 5 months ago
Well, I can sleep well b/c my shorts are via puts and the capital at risk is small %. The thing is, I dont want to sleep well, because I would much rather be sooooo happy that I can't fall asleep! LOL
about 5 months ago
Hey Anna! You are raking it in, as usual. Bravo!
about 5 months ago
Carl at day’s end:
1165-1177 estimate for today (12 points)
1171 -1185 actual today (14 points)
Carl was low by 6-8 points today
Trades: no trades today
Grade: C didn’t lose any money
about 5 months ago
TNA opened down 0.9%. Monday’s gap from $55.95 to $56.03 was not filled. Today’s gap was filled. TNA was up 1.2% at the high, and closed down 0.17%.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls has TNA with a Confirmed Buy signal yesterday. This trade bought TNA at $56.50, and closed today at $59.45, up 5.2%.
Volume for TNA today was about average for the past 22 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was up 0.5 % today with TNA down 0.17%. No divergence.
TNA has now been up 5 of the last 11 days. Chop generally. Hard to read.
The high for TNA yesterday was $60.58, the highest TNA price since November of 2008. The high today was $60.26, off 0.5% from that high.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 58 to 60 today on a down day, a divergence. A reading of 60 is Good for TNA.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over to the upside 3 days ago and has been flat since. Mildly good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle touched the mid Bollinger line and closed below that line. MACD seems to be topping. Looks like $RVX might rise tomorrow. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s white candle for $RUT closed below the top Bollinger Band. It looks like $RUT may be topping. MACD may be working back up. Hard to read, but may be bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle closed below the upper Bollinger Band, after a close two days ago above that band. The upper Bollinger Band is rising. Looks like we are near a top for $RUT. Bad for TNA, but maybe not right away.
TNA had a lower high, lower low and slightly lower close – Bad for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $835 million flowing out of the market. Bearish – Bad for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TNA soon, perhaps tomorrow.
about 5 months ago
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA yesterday went from a hold to a low reliability SELL-IF signal. Today did not resolve that signal, so the SELL-IF extends to tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $59.43, up 5.2% since the buy. The candlestick today High Wave (a great amount of indecision in the market). The last two candlesticks yesterday formed a low reliability Bearish Harami Pattern.
TZA 2 days ago had a highly reliable SELL-IF, but got no confirmation so the SELL-IF was extended by one day to today, but failed to confirm today so is cancelled.
However, the TZA today has a new, not very highly reliable SELL-IF signal. The candlestick for today was Black Spinning Top. The candlesticks for the past two days form a not very highly reliable Bearish Meeting Lines Pattern. The TZA buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.51, down 8.1% since the buy.
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now down 8.1%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, up 5.2%
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive): +3
Hold: GOOG(up 0.1%), GS(up 3.8%)
New Confirmed BUY: AMZN
Transition to Market Positive: +3
Highly Reliable BUY-IF(2nd day): ERX(3x energy)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: TZA (-3x, down 7.5%)
Highly Reliable BUY-IF: SPY
Transition to Market Negative: -14
SELL-IF (2nd day): UCO (2x oil)
Low reliability BUY-IF(2nd day): DRV(-3x), SRS(-2x), RWM(-1x), TWM(-2x)
Low reliability SELL-IF: DRN(3x), QQQQ, IWM(1x), UWM(2x), TNA(3x), URE(2x), IYR(1x)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: DIA
BUY-IF: ERY(-3x energy)
Market Negative: -3
New Confirmed Sell: AAPL
Hold: DTO(-3x oil, down 12.7%), SCO (-2x oil, up 2.4%),
Comment: Bearish overall, Bearish Oil & Energy, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for tomorrow: Possible Sell of TZA, Possible Sell of TNA
about 5 months ago
Thanks, Earl.
about 5 months ago
Hi Anna! Hope you at least enjoyed your vacation?
about 5 months ago
Is red containment slightly higher now or is it still 117.60?
about 5 months ago
Looks like we might reach that SPY 119.35 #. Let me know if we get any other “fake” prints.
about 5 months ago
SPY currently has 3 consecutive gap downs, making it highly probable for a flat open or gap up tomorrow
bull structure remains intact after the $SPX danced with the 1176 area where max contain was @ on the 60 min. Given the amount of pressure building on that containment pt. it will likely be gapped below should the downward thrust be initiated.
It looks to me that the operators want a flat close for the week, $SPX 1180 ish?
Tomorrow is the 911th day after 10.11.2007 $SPX ATH
if you remember I pointed out the closing $DJI & $SPX numbers yesterday
$DJI -72.47 = -9.11
$SPX-6.99 = -6.66
tomorrow is 4.9.2010
4*9=36
Sum 1:36=666
Co-relational Date : Value
about 5 months ago
No doubt about it!
about 5 months ago
I saw that IYT set a new rally high today. I'm not sure this thing is done, yet!
about 5 months ago
Thanks Sundancer.
about 5 months ago
Thanks Earl. I keep an open mind. However, I have to wince when I read comments that we gapped lower 2 days in a row so we will gap up tomorrow based on probabilities.
How are we defining those probabilities. The stock market is not Gaussian. If I flip a coin and get 100 heads in a row, I still have a 50 percent chance of hitting a tail.
The study of 'runs' is very interesting and has preoccupied minds much brighter than mine.
about 5 months ago
I luv pain. In New York you have to pay for getting spanked. But you get it for free, when you trade.
I got rid of my TZA and bought some puts. Still short to the wazoo but only risking a very small % now. I am saving a ton of moolah on maalox and vaseline. Booyah!
about 5 months ago
I hope you did not give notice at the burger joint yet.
about 5 months ago
I did but ended up going back to beg for a second chance.
about 5 months ago
Dear Lord Almighty. Forget the lottery, just gimme a 200 dow pts gap down day before April OpEx.
about 5 months ago
ha ha!
about 5 months ago
your wish will probably be granted
tomorrow if the operators park the $SPX above max containment on the 60 around 1180 you'll able to sleep easy over the weekend
about 5 months ago
Hi Red, long time no talk LOL FWIW that was a serious reversal pattern today and my take is they pin the SPY between 117.01 and 119.99 most likely around 119 for OPX. After that who knows but you just have to be nimble and know your options! I have a video on a 80% winner I did on Monsanto on http://www.hotoptionbabe.com and http://www.optionsblackboard.com
about 5 months ago
once $SPX loses red containment, it's a long fall to yellow
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45033...
about 5 months ago
Gere64,
I believe the probabilities are derived from the trading history. I've found people on both sides of the issue.
I really don't believe the market is a coin toss, although that would explain why things seem so unpredictable
This is not a good place to slam someone for their belief system. Everyone here gets to believe whatever theory they like most, and we like it that way.
If you really hate the statistics aspect, it's ok to say so one time, but then let it go. Easier said than done.
about 5 months ago
Well, I can sleep well b/c my shorts are via puts and the capital at risk is small %. The thing is, I dont want to sleep well, because I would much rather be sooooo happy that I can't fall asleep! LOL
about 5 months ago
Hey Anna! You are raking it in, as usual. Bravo!
about 5 months ago
Carl at day’s end:
1165-1177 estimate for today (12 points)
1171 -1185 actual today (14 points)
Carl was low by 6-8 points today
Trades: no trades today
Grade: C didn’t lose any money
about 5 months ago
TNA opened down 0.9%. Monday’s gap from $55.95 to $56.03 was not filled. Today’s gap was filled. TNA was up 1.2% at the high, and closed down 0.17%.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls has TNA with a Confirmed Buy signal yesterday. This trade bought TNA at $56.50, and closed today at $59.45, up 5.2%.
Volume for TNA today was about average for the past 22 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was up 0.5 % today with TNA down 0.17%. No divergence.
TNA has now been up 5 of the last 11 days. Chop generally. Hard to read.
The high for TNA yesterday was $60.58, the highest TNA price since November of 2008. The high today was $60.26, off 0.5% from that high.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 58 to 60 today on a down day, a divergence. A reading of 60 is Good for TNA.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over to the upside 3 days ago and has been flat since. Mildly good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle touched the mid Bollinger line and closed below that line. MACD seems to be topping. Looks like $RVX might rise tomorrow. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s white candle for $RUT closed below the top Bollinger Band. It looks like $RUT may be topping. MACD may be working back up. Hard to read, but may be bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle closed below the upper Bollinger Band, after a close two days ago above that band. The upper Bollinger Band is rising. Looks like we are near a top for $RUT. Bad for TNA, but maybe not right away.
TNA had a lower high, lower low and slightly lower close – Bad for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $835 million flowing out of the market. Bearish – Bad for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TNA soon, perhaps tomorrow.
about 5 months ago
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA yesterday went from a hold to a low reliability SELL-IF signal. Today did not resolve that signal, so the SELL-IF extends to tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $59.43, up 5.2% since the buy. The candlestick today High Wave (a great amount of indecision in the market). The last two candlesticks yesterday formed a low reliability Bearish Harami Pattern.
TZA 2 days ago had a highly reliable SELL-IF, but got no confirmation so the SELL-IF was extended by one day to today, but failed to confirm today so is cancelled.
However, the TZA today has a new, not very highly reliable SELL-IF signal. The candlestick for today was Black Spinning Top. The candlesticks for the past two days form a not very highly reliable Bearish Meeting Lines Pattern. The TZA buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.51, down 8.1% since the buy.
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now down 8.1%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, up 5.2%
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive): +3
Hold: GOOG(up 0.1%), GS(up 3.8%)
New Confirmed BUY: AMZN
Transition to Market Positive: +3
Highly Reliable BUY-IF(2nd day): ERX(3x energy)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: TZA (-3x, down 7.5%)
Highly Reliable BUY-IF: SPY
Transition to Market Negative: -14
SELL-IF (2nd day): UCO (2x oil)
Low reliability BUY-IF(2nd day): DRV(-3x), SRS(-2x), RWM(-1x), TWM(-2x)
Low reliability SELL-IF: DRN(3x), QQQQ, IWM(1x), UWM(2x), TNA(3x), URE(2x), IYR(1x)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: DIA
BUY-IF: ERY(-3x energy)
Market Negative: -3
New Confirmed Sell: AAPL
Hold: DTO(-3x oil, down 12.7%), SCO (-2x oil, up 2.4%),
Comment: Bearish overall, Bearish Oil & Energy, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for tomorrow: Possible Sell of TZA, Possible Sell of TNA
about 5 months ago
Thanks, Earl.
about 5 months ago
Hi Anna! Hope you at least enjoyed your vacation?
about 5 months ago
Is red containment slightly higher now or is it still 117.60?