Time is running out as the bulls are starting to weaken! Soon they will fall over from the poison that they've been given. The news out will become increasing worse, causing more panic too occur. Yes folks, the moment of reckoning, (for the bears at least), is now upon us.
One thing clear to me about today's tape was that the big institutions are now selling. They of course know what is too come, and what news will be released in the coming days and weeks. Will it be the Job's Claims numbers tomorrow, or some other event? I don't know what it will be, but I suspect that we will wake up one morning to a large gap down, and the market won't look back...
The reason blamed behind the selling around 2pm on Wednesday was that Tom Hoeing, President of the Federal Reverse Bank of Kansas, came out around 2pm est. Wednesday and stated that he thought they should raise the interest rates to 1%.
Are they preparing us for the coming meltdown? It seems so... We must keep our ears open, as they are now letting the market know ahead of time... that more bad news is coming.
So at this point, it doesn't look like the Dow will reach the 11,000 mark, nor will the SPX reach 1200... YET! Remember, the summer months are still too come, and this current high is likely only temporary. I think we will form a rounded top on this current rally from the March, 2009 low. The real peak will probably occur in the summer, and every last bear will be dead by then.
I hope to still be around, and have successfully navigated these treacherous waters. I know many other's will fall into the bulls' meat grinder, as their master's need to eat sometime... and of course they like bull steak just as well as bear steak.
Playing this game isn't easy, as it's designed for them to always win, and you to lose. So, you must learn to read what the dealers have in their hand, as they most definitely can see what's in your hand.
Of course, there's always a few who win at the table. If not, then the house couldn't keep anyone playing the game anymore. So, beating the house isn't an option... nor is it possible, but becoming the player that wins that hand is. You must use this knowledge to out play the other players... as they are the ones' you can beat.
So it now seems that everyone has laid their bets on "black", as it's come up black for the last trillion days in a row... but I think it's time for "red" to pop up. That's why I'm short, and will add to my short position tomorrow, if I get the chance too.
If you are long, take your profits, and sit this one out. Give us bears a chance to dance with the pretty girl... will you?
Red
Or good looking boys! Thanks Red.
LOL… Sorry, I forgot about the ladies for a moment. Yes, you girls want to take your turn dancing with the handsome fellow. (And us guys will take the pretty lady of course). Start the record please, and turn up the volume.
Red, I don't think we see 1200 this year, it seems too obvious that we make another leg higher after a slight correction. I think the markets will fool the majority and grind lower with no new highs.
Remember everyone talking about a final leg lower after March 2009 that never came …
BTW : YOu have a great blog here. Keep it up !
We shall see Royal. We might get back to previous highs this year:) But thank g-d for the time being that we are going lower. I won't be around this morning to see what happens 🙁
well the operators are going to fool you
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44783…
Thanks for stopping by Royal…
And I appreciate the compliment. I try to make the blog entertaining, and informative. You'll notice that I don't post too charts here, as my skills in that area suck.
I focus more about the greed, corruption, and manipulation in the market… and most importantly, how to make money with that knowledge.
You could say that most people here took the Red Pill, and they understand how controlled the market really is.
Tim (on Slope of Hope, of course) focuses more on charts, and those that visit are primarily the Blue Pill takers. Don't get me wrong, I like Tim a lot, a respect his charting skills too. I like reading and following many of the people there too…
But, if you hang around here enough and read the comments, you'll find out that the depth of the corruption and manipulation is deeper then most are willing to believe.
So, while we are getting ready for a nice overdue correction, it isn't P3 yet. The target down has already been given to us. It's the 1078 minimum, to 1050 maximum range.
Once that area is reached, many people will go short, thinking that we are going lower. But that's when we make a slow grind back up to 11,816 Dow, over the following summer months.
That… my friend, is how you “fool the majority” of the people. Believe me, every bear will be shorting every push higher from the coming low.
The fall months should be the best, as all hell should break loose then. Of course every bear will be dead, so hang on to your cash and visit more often.
Hi Red!
Just found this site by following the cheese 🙂
Is there any way to search an archive to look up the meaning of the terms used. I see what looks like displaced moving averages posted, maybe volume weighted, but it is like you folks are talking in tongues. Now, I am in my early 50's and have been around for awhile. My trade is EE but my passion is the markets.
Do not want to impose, just learn.
Thanks!
LOL… “following the cheese”. Just don't get caught in the mouse trap being laid!
And yeah, you could say that we are talking in tongues. As for understanding the terms, you'll just have too read on a daily basis, as there isn't a dictionary available.
You can go back through the past posts and you'll understand more. But to get you up to speed a little, go read this…
http://reddragonleo.com/2010/01/11/97-point-drop/
Now look at today's chart and where we went on February the 5th. Next, go read this post, and look at the charts at in the post.
http://reddragonleo.com/2010/03/06/weekend-upda…
That is our coming target area…
Thanks for appreciating my sense of humor and taking the time to respond.
Will take this on as H.W.
It's a bit of a running comedy. Terms no one understands, constant references to some sort of price games, periodic slams of everyone else, plus references to sun and dancing.
Good Luck figuring it out.
Thanks Earl. I keep an open mind. However, I have to wince when I read comments that we gapped lower 2 days in a row so we will gap up tomorrow based on probabilities.
How are we defining those probabilities. The stock market is not Gaussian. If I flip a coin and get 100 heads in a row, I still have a 50 percent chance of hitting a tail.
The study of 'runs' is very interesting and has preoccupied minds much brighter than mine.
Gere64,
I believe the probabilities are derived from the trading history. I've found people on both sides of the issue.
I really don't believe the market is a coin toss, although that would explain why things seem so unpredictable 🙂
This is not a good place to slam someone for their belief system. Everyone here gets to believe whatever theory they like most, and we like it that way.
If you really hate the statistics aspect, it's ok to say so one time, but then let it go. Easier said than done.
Up or down, who cares? lol Just as long as it MOVES. A trader's hell is a stagnant market.
$SPX approaching the edge of the cliff
max contain on the 60 min is @ 1176, it has held the bull structure since the initiation gap on 2.16.2010
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45020…
That is an excellent chart.
Let's see what happens SC. Are you out of your positions now or still holding?
I just bought some May Puts. I luv pain…..
You can have mine then!
Monica, why don't you just close out the etfs and put like 5-6% of the capital in May Puts? That way, comes hell or highwater, 95% of your capital is still safe, and you are risking only around 5% and still be shorting the market to the tune of around 300%? You will have until the third Friday of May for Doomsday Pee 3 X3 whatever. IF that doesn't come, you are down 5%. No big deal, inlight of the beating you have been getting over etfs. If doomsday doesnt come by then, your etfs would probably have eaten up more than 5% anyhow…
What do you think? If you use spread, you can cut the capital commitment down to 2-3%.
You might have a good point and then maybe I can take capital losses on those ETFs. I just have very little experience with options and they make me nervous for that reason.
You used way too much capital on your last option trade. Had you used a properly sized amount, it would have costed only 2-3%.
yep. Check your email. I did a vertical spread last time but then I took that spread off which I think made it worse.
Would you walk me through it so I don't screw it up? I can send you my phone# through email?
I understand how that feel.
Email me : DCSmartCoin *at* G mail
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1165 – 1177. I think the drop from 1188 will amount to 20-25 points. After it ends the ES should rally to 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.
1173.25 -1186.25 actual yesterday (13 points)
1172 low last night
1165-1177 estimate for today (12 points)
1174 currently, so estimate is -9 to +3 from here (bearish)
Carl is wrong again. Yet another daily ramp job.
You going long? Carl's not trading (yet) today, and hasn't for days. Not sure if he is on a vacation of sorts, or just doesn't like the market.
I'm trying to figure out my next move. I'm in cash right now until something makes sense.
Looks like DTO has officially pulled away from the bottom Bollinger band, so looking for an entry.
Take a look at this chart before you start a relationship with DTO. Just sayin'
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
Dreadwin,
You make a powerful argument.
Perhaps I should postpone my DTO adventure until it doesn't appear to be an obvious catastrophe 🙂
Is there an inverse to DTO?
You could:
a) short DTO (the inverse used to be DXO, but that is gone)
b) long UCO (2x oil, SCO is -2x oil)
c) play ERX (3x energy, inverse is ERY)
Thanks. One of these should be a winner 🙂
If the DTO black candle magically becomes a red candle, that could change things.
They are all winners!…… for your broker for sure. LOL
Before you start a relationship with DTO. LOL!!!! Dread you have a way with words.
I quickly imagined DTO taking advantage of me, so to speak. Vivid imagery.
It's not hard to imagine.
I got violated and abused by ms TZA and had to dump her. I hooked up with ms Puts. She was all sweet at first, but ……
I saw that IYT set a new rally high today. I'm not sure this thing is done, yet!
I luv pain. In New York you have to pay for getting spanked. But you get it for free, when you trade.
I got rid of my TZA and bought some puts. Still short to the wazoo but only risking a very small % now. I am saving a ton of moolah on maalox and vaseline. Booyah!
I hope you did not give notice at the burger joint yet.
I did but ended up going back to beg for a second chance.
🙁
I'm generally relationship averse when it comes to my ETF's. I'll get involved, but only for a short time frame. It never seems to work out.
You saying you have commitment issues?
No doubt about it!
I'm back in DRV again, 4/5th loaded now.
Fly,
You called it. Carl now says the upside looks better (support at 1174-1175), but he's still not trading.
for those trading the XLF
Daily Containment Update
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45028…
rejected @ containment the past 2 sessions
It has a date with the light blue containment pt. that I circled in the chart
Thanks Dancer
Wow, it seems I missed some entertaining dialogue here today but Jason just won't die! Maybe you guys need a girl to take him out!
Looks like we might reach that SPY 119.35 #. Let me know if we get any other “fake” prints.
SPY currently has 3 consecutive gap downs, making it highly probable for a flat open or gap up tomorrow
bull structure remains intact after the $SPX danced with the 1176 area where max contain was @ on the 60 min. Given the amount of pressure building on that containment pt. it will likely be gapped below should the downward thrust be initiated.
It looks to me that the operators want a flat close for the week, $SPX 1180 ish?
Tomorrow is the 911th day after 10.11.2007 $SPX ATH
if you remember I pointed out the closing $DJI & $SPX numbers yesterday
$DJI -72.47 = -9.11
$SPX-6.99 = -6.66
tomorrow is 4.9.2010
4*9=36
Sum 1:36=666
Co-relational Date : Value
Thanks Sundancer.
Dear Lord Almighty. Forget the lottery, just gimme a 200 dow pts gap down day before April OpEx.
ha ha!
once $SPX loses red containment, it's a long fall to yellow
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45033…
Is red containment slightly higher now or is it still 117.60?
your wish will probably be granted
tomorrow if the operators park the $SPX above max containment on the 60 around 1180 you'll able to sleep easy over the weekend
Well, I can sleep well b/c my shorts are via puts and the capital at risk is small %. The thing is, I dont want to sleep well, because I would much rather be sooooo happy that I can't fall asleep! LOL
Hi Red, long time no talk LOL FWIW that was a serious reversal pattern today and my take is they pin the SPY between 117.01 and 119.99 most likely around 119 for OPX. After that who knows but you just have to be nimble and know your options! I have a video on a 80% winner I did on Monsanto on http://www.hotoptionbabe.com and http://www.optionsblackboard.com
Hey Anna! You are raking it in, as usual. Bravo!
Hi Anna! Hope you at least enjoyed your vacation?
TNA opened down 0.9%. Monday’s gap from $55.95 to $56.03 was not filled. Today’s gap was filled. TNA was up 1.2% at the high, and closed down 0.17%.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls has TNA with a Confirmed Buy signal yesterday. This trade bought TNA at $56.50, and closed today at $59.45, up 5.2%.
Volume for TNA today was about average for the past 22 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was up 0.5 % today with TNA down 0.17%. No divergence.
TNA has now been up 5 of the last 11 days. Chop generally. Hard to read.
The high for TNA yesterday was $60.58, the highest TNA price since November of 2008. The high today was $60.26, off 0.5% from that high.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 58 to 60 today on a down day, a divergence. A reading of 60 is Good for TNA.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over to the upside 3 days ago and has been flat since. Mildly good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle touched the mid Bollinger line and closed below that line. MACD seems to be topping. Looks like $RVX might rise tomorrow. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s white candle for $RUT closed below the top Bollinger Band. It looks like $RUT may be topping. MACD may be working back up. Hard to read, but may be bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle closed below the upper Bollinger Band, after a close two days ago above that band. The upper Bollinger Band is rising. Looks like we are near a top for $RUT. Bad for TNA, but maybe not right away.
TNA had a lower high, lower low and slightly lower close – Bad for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $835 million flowing out of the market. Bearish – Bad for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TNA soon, perhaps tomorrow.
Thanks, Earl.
Carl at day’s end:
1165-1177 estimate for today (12 points)
1171 -1185 actual today (14 points)
Carl was low by 6-8 points today
Trades: no trades today
Grade: C didn’t lose any money
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA yesterday went from a hold to a low reliability SELL-IF signal. Today did not resolve that signal, so the SELL-IF extends to tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $59.43, up 5.2% since the buy. The candlestick today High Wave (a great amount of indecision in the market). The last two candlesticks yesterday formed a low reliability Bearish Harami Pattern.
TZA 2 days ago had a highly reliable SELL-IF, but got no confirmation so the SELL-IF was extended by one day to today, but failed to confirm today so is cancelled.
However, the TZA today has a new, not very highly reliable SELL-IF signal. The candlestick for today was Black Spinning Top. The candlesticks for the past two days form a not very highly reliable Bearish Meeting Lines Pattern. The TZA buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.51, down 8.1% since the buy.
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now down 8.1%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, up 5.2%
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive): +3
Hold: GOOG(up 0.1%), GS(up 3.8%)
New Confirmed BUY: AMZN
Transition to Market Positive: +3
Highly Reliable BUY-IF(2nd day): ERX(3x energy)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: TZA (-3x, down 7.5%)
Highly Reliable BUY-IF: SPY
Transition to Market Negative: -14
SELL-IF (2nd day): UCO (2x oil)
Low reliability BUY-IF(2nd day): DRV(-3x), SRS(-2x), RWM(-1x), TWM(-2x)
Low reliability SELL-IF: DRN(3x), QQQQ, IWM(1x), UWM(2x), TNA(3x), URE(2x), IYR(1x)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: DIA
BUY-IF: ERY(-3x energy)
Market Negative: -3
New Confirmed Sell: AAPL
Hold: DTO(-3x oil, down 12.7%), SCO (-2x oil, up 2.4%),
Comment: Bearish overall, Bearish Oil & Energy, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for tomorrow: Possible Sell of TZA, Possible Sell of TNA
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA yesterday went from a hold to a low reliability SELL-IF signal. Today did not resolve that signal, so the SELL-IF extends to tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $59.43, up 5.2% since the buy. The candlestick today High Wave (a great amount of indecision in the market). The last two candlesticks yesterday formed a low reliability Bearish Harami Pattern.
TZA 2 days ago had a highly reliable SELL-IF, but got no confirmation so the SELL-IF was extended by one day to today, but failed to confirm today so is cancelled.
However, the TZA today has a new, not very highly reliable SELL-IF signal. The candlestick for today was Black Spinning Top. The candlesticks for the past two days form a not very highly reliable Bearish Meeting Lines Pattern. The TZA buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.51, down 8.1% since the buy.
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now down 8.1%
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, up 5.2%
Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive): +3
Hold: GOOG(up 0.1%), GS(up 3.8%)
New Confirmed BUY: AMZN
Transition to Market Positive: +3
Highly Reliable BUY-IF(2nd day): ERX(3x energy)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: TZA (-3x, down 7.5%)
Highly Reliable BUY-IF: SPY
Transition to Market Negative: -14
SELL-IF (2nd day): UCO (2x oil)
Low reliability BUY-IF(2nd day): DRV(-3x), SRS(-2x), RWM(-1x), TWM(-2x)
Low reliability SELL-IF: DRN(3x), QQQQ, IWM(1x), UWM(2x), TNA(3x), URE(2x), IYR(1x)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: DIA
BUY-IF: ERY(-3x energy)
Market Negative: -3
New Confirmed Sell: AAPL
Hold: DTO(-3x oil, down 12.7%), SCO (-2x oil, up 2.4%),
Comment: Bearish overall, Bearish Oil & Energy, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for tomorrow: Possible Sell of TZA, Possible Sell of TNA
TNA opened down 0.9%. Monday’s gap from $55.95 to $56.03 was not filled. Today’s gap was filled. TNA was up 1.2% at the high, and closed down 0.17%.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls has TNA with a Confirmed Buy signal yesterday. This trade bought TNA at $56.50, and closed today at $59.45, up 5.2%.
Volume for TNA today was about average for the past 22 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was up 0.5 % today with TNA down 0.17%. No divergence.
TNA has now been up 5 of the last 11 days. Chop generally. Hard to read.
The high for TNA yesterday was $60.58, the highest TNA price since November of 2008. The high today was $60.26, off 0.5% from that high.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 58 to 60 today on a down day, a divergence. A reading of 60 is Good for TNA.
MACD on the monthly chart crossed over to the upside 3 days ago and has been flat since. Mildly good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle touched the mid Bollinger line and closed below that line. MACD seems to be topping. Looks like $RVX might rise tomorrow. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s white candle for $RUT closed below the top Bollinger Band. It looks like $RUT may be topping. MACD may be working back up. Hard to read, but may be bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle closed below the upper Bollinger Band, after a close two days ago above that band. The upper Bollinger Band is rising. Looks like we are near a top for $RUT. Bad for TNA, but maybe not right away.
TNA had a lower high, lower low and slightly lower close – Bad for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $835 million flowing out of the market. Bearish – Bad for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks bad for TNA soon, perhaps tomorrow.
Thanks, Earl.
Carl at day’s end:
1165-1177 estimate for today (12 points)
1171 -1185 actual today (14 points)
Carl was low by 6-8 points today
Trades: no trades today
Grade: C didn’t lose any money
Hi Red, long time no talk LOL FWIW that was a serious reversal pattern today and my take is they pin the SPY between 117.01 and 119.99 most likely around 119 for OPX. After that who knows but you just have to be nimble and know your options! I have a video on a 80% winner I did on Monsanto on http://www.hotoptionbabe.com and http://www.optionsblackboard.com
Hi Anna! Hope you at least enjoyed your vacation?
Hey Anna! You are raking it in, as usual. Bravo!
SPY currently has 3 consecutive gap downs, making it highly probable for a flat open or gap up tomorrow
bull structure remains intact after the $SPX danced with the 1176 area where max contain was @ on the 60 min. Given the amount of pressure building on that containment pt. it will likely be gapped below should the downward thrust be initiated.
It looks to me that the operators want a flat close for the week, $SPX 1180 ish?
Tomorrow is the 911th day after 10.11.2007 $SPX ATH
if you remember I pointed out the closing $DJI & $SPX numbers yesterday
$DJI -72.47 = -9.11
$SPX-6.99 = -6.66
tomorrow is 4.9.2010
4*9=36
Sum 1:36=666
Co-relational Date : Value
Dear Lord Almighty. Forget the lottery, just gimme a 200 dow pts gap down day before April OpEx.
once $SPX loses red containment, it's a long fall to yellow
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45033…
Is red containment slightly higher now or is it still 117.60?
your wish will probably be granted
tomorrow if the operators park the $SPX above max containment on the 60 around 1180 you'll able to sleep easy over the weekend
Well, I can sleep well b/c my shorts are via puts and the capital at risk is small %. The thing is, I dont want to sleep well, because I would much rather be sooooo happy that I can't fall asleep! LOL
ha ha!
Thanks Sundancer.
Looks like we might reach that SPY 119.35 #. Let me know if we get any other “fake” prints.
No doubt about it!
I saw that IYT set a new rally high today. I'm not sure this thing is done, yet!
I luv pain. In New York you have to pay for getting spanked. But you get it for free, when you trade.
I got rid of my TZA and bought some puts. Still short to the wazoo but only risking a very small % now. I am saving a ton of moolah on maalox and vaseline. Booyah!
I hope you did not give notice at the burger joint yet.
I did but ended up going back to beg for a second chance.
🙁
Thanks Earl. I keep an open mind. However, I have to wince when I read comments that we gapped lower 2 days in a row so we will gap up tomorrow based on probabilities.
How are we defining those probabilities. The stock market is not Gaussian. If I flip a coin and get 100 heads in a row, I still have a 50 percent chance of hitting a tail.
The study of 'runs' is very interesting and has preoccupied minds much brighter than mine.
Gere64,
I believe the probabilities are derived from the trading history. I've found people on both sides of the issue.
I really don't believe the market is a coin toss, although that would explain why things seem so unpredictable 🙂
This is not a good place to slam someone for their belief system. Everyone here gets to believe whatever theory they like most, and we like it that way.
If you really hate the statistics aspect, it's ok to say so one time, but then let it go. Easier said than done.