The Bears celebrated today by laughing and giving each other "High Fives"...
It's seems it's been such a long time since the bear has had a decent meal, that this one almost seems like a dream. The sell off I've been waiting for is finally here... but will it end today? I don't think so. Here is the same chart I posted on Sunday... now look at where we are compared to the last sell off?
Do you notice anything similar? I certainly do, and I believe that tomorrow will not bounce at all, as many of the bulls are expecting it too. I think it will open and continue selling off until we hit the 115.00 spy level, and then a bounce will occur. How much is still unknown? It could end the correction and then we are back to the slow grind up to our finally destination of 11,816 (DIA 118.16), where we have our fake print that Sundancer caught many weeks back.
However, the way the market climbed to it's current height, leads me to believe that we will continue on down to the other fake print of Dow 10,000 and 107.38 spy first, and then rally hard. The climb up is too step I believe, and a larger correction needs to happen before turning the ship back around.
Think of it as a large ship, traveling way too fast in the water. If it sees danger ahead, (like a fleet of enemy ships), it must turn the ship around as fast as possible and go back another direction. Unfortunately, it's been moving too fast for too long, without stopping for any maintenance (pullbacks in the market), and now the engines are kicked into full reverse causing the ship too turn quickly.
But, half way through the turn (the coming bounce at 115.00), the ship's engine's lock up from the stress, and a quick repair must be done (another sell off to 107 area), before she can get back up to speed and away from the enemy ship (full of an army of bears of course).
So as you can see, I'm really leaning toward fulfilling the lower target fake prints first, before the rally continues back up again. Will it play out that way? That's any one's guess? I think it will, but time will tell...