Friday, April 19, 2024

Weekend Update…

Was the oil disaster rigged?

It looks like Halliburton was making a power play for the oil, and didn't care about what effects would come from blowing up the rig.  Thanks Dick Chenney, George Bush, David Rockefeller and all the other thugs in the Bilderberger group and Illuminati Zionist pigs!

Your days are numbered and good will prevail over your evil plans to destroy the world and save only yourselves.  Sorry, but it's not going play out like you portrayed it in the movie "2012".  If fact, I believe it will be the end of centuries of lies and manipulation, that you have done to the people of the world.

A new age is coming, and secret technologies are going to be released to the people, rendering your control over humanity inapt.  Good and positive changes are going to happen after 2012, not the destruction you want to happen, so you can create anarchy, violence, and chaos.

Moving on... (sorry, I got off subject a little, but these control freaks need to be publicly hung! ... and why can't I find this news being reported by the America press?  I have to find it on Russian Television... I wonder why that is?)

Friday was just as I expected it too be... a sell off.  Obama lied as usual, by stating that the jobs numbers was great... which rallied the market on Wednesday and Thursday.  So who pulled his strings I wonder?  Sounds like a typical politician... lie, lie, and lie again.  It sure did trap a lot of bulls on that lie.  What's next?  Will he say they stopped the oil from leaking, but really didn't?  I'm sure he would say that... if he thought he could get away with it.

Anyway, from a technical point of view, the market sold off because it hit strong overhead resistance from the 200ma, as well as the 20ma barreling down for above, to form a necktie.  On top of the that, the market was  bumping its' head on the upper trendline from a strong falling channel that's held the market since it peaked in April.  Plus horizontal resistance around 1100 too... so there was a ton of technical reasons for the sell off, but the jobs report was the blame.

For Monday, I'm not sure what to expect, as we are very oversold on the 60 minute chart, but the daily, weekly and monthly are still not oversold.  That leads me to believe there will be more selling next week.  If the market stays in this falling channel, as I believe it will, then we could easily go down to 1000 spx or so.

My thoughts for Monday are that we gap down at the open, but quickly bounce back up throughout the rest of the day.  It should take most of the day to work off the oversold conditions on the 60 minute chart.  While the histogram bars are rising back up, the price could rise back up too, or just trade sideways until the chart is overbought again?  Just because the chart is oversold, doesn't mean the market will rise back up in price while the STO's, MACD and Histogram indicators do.

It could, and should... but there isn't any guarantee that it rise up with while it works off the oversold conditions.  However, if it does rise up, then the 1080-1090 area is the likely bounce target.  I do not see the market breaking outside the falling channel yet.  Not when the daily chart has worked off its' oversold conditions and just turned back down again.

So yes, this market is due a powerful rally, but until we put in a lower low, I just don't see it happening.  I believe a powerful rally will come after we have a capitulation day like February the 5th was.  We haven't had one yet.  There are still a lot of bulls out there thinking that we are just trading sideways building a base to go higher.  The bulls have too be forced into panicking... which I haven't seen yet.

Back to Monday... if we gap down, then I expect it to reverse early in the morning an rally throughout the rest of the day to work off the oversold conditions on the 60 minute chart.  If we gap up, I think it will be sold hard as there are retail bulls still trying to get out, and bears trying to get in.  That's why I don't think we will gap up.  It seems too easy, as it would allow the bulls an escape and the bears a great entry point.

Of course a flat open is possible too, which should lead to some early selling from panicked retail bulls, and then a rally the rest of the day... to again, work off the oversold condition on the 60 minute chart.  The day could simply be a "pause" day, which means it could close flat making a doji.  This all assumes that there isn't anymore bad news released over the weekend.  If so, then the selling could continue with very small bounces back up.

Personally, I would love to see it gap down in morning (at which point I would close my shorts), and then rally back to 1080-1090 area, so I could get short again.  But, that seems to easy... which leads me to believe it might not happen?  The only thing I'm feeling the strongest about, is that the market is highly likely to stay in the channel and put in another lower low by the end of the week.  The target looks to be around 1000 spx, but that's just guessing at where the lower trendline support will be at next week.

So, if Monday doesn't just continuing selling all day, and actually give us a decent bounce, then Tuesday should be the next big move down.  If last Friday was a smaller wave 1 down, and Monday gives us wave 2 up, then Tuesday would be a wave 3 down.  But again, I'm not an Elliottwave expert.  This is just speculation at this point.

There are other counts that have us breaking out the channel and going back up to 1140-1150 to put in a right shoulder.  It could happen like that, but I don't believe it will... until it first puts in a lower low.  The downward pressure from the monthly and weekly charts is huge, and now that the daily has also turned back down, it tells me the market is still too weak to go make that right shoulder that everyone is looking for.  Maybe after the lower low... or maybe never?

To recap... I'm expecting a doji Monday (assuming no more negative news), and large down day on Tuesday, and then a rally into the end of the week.  To what level, I don't know yet?  It will depend on how far we sell off, as the rally back should be some type of Fibonacci level.  We'll cross that bridge when will get there...

Red

P.S. While the world is focused on the oil disaster, our evil enemy Goldman Sachs is once again laughing all the way too the bank.  In part 2 of the video below, they talk about an email that a Goldman Sachs employee emailed to his girlfriend, telling her that the company was going to take a large short position against the Gulf Oil Rigs just one day before the disaster happened.

For those that forgot, Goldman Sachs also had large short positions on the mortgage packages they were selling during the 2007 mortgage bubble peak.  And, they also took a large short position just days before 911 occurred too.  They profit from being part of creating disasters that kill people.  If that doesn't make you anger, I don't know what will?  These people need to be tortured by the public at large, for crimes against humanity.

And finally, this professor mentions that some unknown person posted something on a website stating that a North Korean submarine was responsible for the disaster. But, he thinks it's very unlikely to be true, as the creditability of the that story is weak. He focuses more on the fact that Halliburton people were on the rig just 20 hours prior to the explosion... leaning more toward their involvement.

Regardless of which story is true, if either is true? ...the one thing that is obviously a fact --- It was all planned ahead of time. How else could Goldman Sachs have known when to short them? Just like 911 was planned, and every war and major event this country has had in the last 100 years or more. Wake up people! Everything is planned, controlled, and staged to make a profit and control the brainwashed public.

If there is one video you should watch (later as it's a long one), it's this one by David Wilcox called "The 2012 Enigma".

It will open your eye's to a lot of things that "The Powers That Be" don't want YOU to know!  (P.S. It's about something positive and wonderful for once... LOL)

Red
Author: Red

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Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The G20 Summit Failed, and the Bilderberger's are running scared…

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/73/574/The_Bilde

pezhead9000
13 years ago

If your already short, go ahead and order that red vet you always wanted

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  pezhead9000

I stayed 80% short over the weekend Pez, so I'm not sweating any big rally yet. I think Monday and maybe Tuesday will be down, and then the rest of the week will rally.

But, after the rally is over, I'll be getting short again for the following week. Lot's of downside to come… I think.

z seven's next winning trade
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I can't remember the last time Monday was down. I'll go with Tuesday's down, though.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Monday could be a flat or “pause” day, putting in a doji and then Tuesday would be the large down day. It's hard too tell about Monday, as we are very oversold short term… like on the 60 minute chart.

But, the monthly, weekly, and daily are pointing down. So, it could go either way at this point? The over night futures sold off pretty hard, but have now recovered all the lose. So, a flat day (which could be slightly positive or negative) looks more likely at this point.

That leaves Tuesday to be a big down day. We'll see I guess, but I do believe this month is going to be like May was… down.

anoopsan
13 years ago

USD VS CAD Falling wedge gives a good break out
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

z seven's next winning trade

It's the oil industry's Chernobyl Say goodbye to cheap energy. Obama is a one term President, and Sarah Palin's career is FInished.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Drive the Pacheco pass and Western Wy.

they do not work

z seven's next winning trade

USO has to retest 31 this week, and since the DOW is following USO, the DOW will go up when USO at 31. USO at 34, short the DOW.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

But the Anti-Christ isn't running. What's the antidote for that?

I wish I could hear another video or news out of BAMinvestor.com
any news on them?

Mon-Tues they stated (I think I'm being accurate) that the S&P will go down to 944!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

This is all I have from BAM, and it's available on their Twitter feed…

http://twitter.com/baminvestor

Anna
13 years ago

BP is British I know someone maybe Red told me it was royal dutch shell

http://www.blurtit.com/q776117.html

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Yeah, I just found that out too Anna. It's in the first video I posted above. Looks like Halliburton destroyed the rig so BP couldn't get rights to the oil. Thugs… all of them!

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

For those of you who track the Euro as an influence on US Stocks. Kathy lien has the following to say.

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kathy/3481/will

(concerning G-20 meeting) She thinks the ECB will not support the Euro. Should read her article

“If the meeting turns out to be a dud and no ground breaking announcements are delivered, the next focus turns to the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.

ECB Not Expected to Lend Support to the Euro
The market clearly wants Europe to get their act together and calm things down, but the European Central Bank may do more to hurt the euro than help it when they meet later this week. With inflationary pressures still muted, the ECB needs to keep monetary policy ultra easy to prevent a double dip recession in Europe.”

pezhead9000
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

live by the central banks, die by the central banks

anoopsan
13 years ago

European markets situation may give a positive start for dow and sp 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Interesting post Red – bizarre futures action.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yeah Monica,

Looks like we will get a bounce today, to work off the oversold conditions on the 60 minute chart. That leaves Tuesday as another down day.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

should be interesting to say the least.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Should be a choppy day today. But Tuesday will be fun.

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

Nice charts Diablos… could work out just like that.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

thanks diablos.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Today looks like it's going too be very boring, as it will take most of the day to work off the oversold conditions on the 60 minute and 15 minute charts.

So, while the histogram bars rise from negative territory into positive, the market isn't keeping up… but instead just trading sideways. This is called a bear flag, and it should play out either late today or tomorrow morning.

anoopsan
13 years ago

SP 500 Fibonnacci levels in hourly chart

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Wow…

I guess we could have all just sleep through today, as the market isn't doing much of anything. I thought it might go up to 1080 to work off the oversold conditions, but I guess it's just too weak?

If it keeps trading sideways all day, it's going to put in a nice bear flag for tomorrow. Don't know what news is out, but I don't think it's going to matter much at this point. Once the short term charts get overbought, another move down will happen I believe.

SC
SC
13 years ago

Haliburton, Cheney, Bush and the illuminati + lizzard men employed Blackwater operatives to blow up the rig?

This beats the Stargate at the bottom of the ocean south of Yemen openning up and sinking the stock market in Feb 2010.

So long guys, my Broilme-a-burger conspiracy group has recieved a Batman signal from the Knight Templar group who got theirs from the Grandlizzard Bush himself. I have been summoned to duty. All Hail the GrandLizzard! Long live the Overseer!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  SC

I know Dick Cheney well. i have fished with him many times.

He divested fro Halliburton years ago and is not involved in this in any way.

Additionally my oldest t son is with JSOC and works w/ Blackwater all the time.

i spent a good deal of my life that I cannot discuss and i can tell you that video is bunk.

They would not conduct such an operation period.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

By the way its not Blackwater anymore and has not been blackwater for some time.

Were is Waldo?
Were is Waldo?
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Well that post managed to offend just about everyone. Wonder why you have lost so many good posters? Maybe they were all Zionists?

The all powerful group that could not save 6 million of their brethren.

Time to visit Mr. Freud and get another blue pill!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Were is Waldo?

Were is Waldo?

LOL…

I don't do the “Blue Pill”… I'm not brainwashed anymore.

How about “Where is Spock?”

Where is Waldo?
Where is Waldo?
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Probably with Captain Kirk! By the way, both Zionists!

Any the live long and prosper greeting, an ancient Zionist ritual.

Read Nimoy's book.

More fodder for your conspiracy madness.

Hey SC, sorry to see you go!

Beam me up Scotty!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

I was hoping for a morning sell-off to 1035-1050, but no cigar. 1058 was not exciting enough to cover anything.

I think we could get our rally right now (1:19 EST). Pivot point is 1077. If we go past that, I think we're looking at 1090 at a minimum. It may or may not carry to tomorrow.

Generally, the action seems more interested in selling than buying, but once the call goes out, who knows.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

seems the bears are running out of time. But then again, a watched pot never boils.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Friday selling was the greatest in many years. i have to think people are selling into this as they can.

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

Don't pretend to understand everything he says, but he's normally pretty accurate. He day trades ES. His latest…

“VPOC shift up. Might see an acceleration upwards from here with target of 1073.25 and 1080.50 as tweeted earlier”

http://twitter.com/futurestrader71

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Jim and SC,

I don't know who is responsible for it blowing up, but I do believe Goldman Sachs profited from it, by shorting it the day before it happened. That tells me that it was planned in advance. By who is unknown? The bad guys would an accurate answer.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red,

This will be investigated for years. I beleive the entire story will show incompetnce.

Just so you know this happeened before in the Gulf of mexico i think about 30 years ago. When i get some time I will get the history.

Also more oil escapes from the ground every day than this catastrophe but at a more dispersed rate.
the ocean eats it up.

iam not justifying. its a horrific problem. But conspiracy of gov't just ain't it.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago

Update on Atilla's site : The market is entering in a stage that will not only wipe out bulls (if it already didnt) but it will also hurt bears, especially those nimble ones, day traders and etc because we are entering in a waterfall and whatever you do before we hit absolute bottom will hurt you. The best thing is to stay out or stay short while utilizing some sort of position sizing.

So don't get cute and try to play the bounces.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Smart advise Newbear. I'm staying short, and just waiting for this bear flag to form and play out tomorrow or later today.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It immediately caught my attention because I try to play those bounces but in the scenario about to unfold I agree with Atilla. Just be short and stay short. He also says the bottom will be even obvious to a 5th grader.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Well good thing I am not nimble – I just stay put forever and ever. . . .

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I can't wait for this pot to boil.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Might have to wait another day, maybe not.

I'm hoping for a rally because I'd like to have a lot more puts, so of course there won't be one. 🙂

z seven's next winning trade
Reply to  newbear

IWM about to make a new monthly low. I'm waiting for the summer rally. ( mid-July possible)

z seven's next winning trade

BEN GO LONG JULY 80 calls, average in 87-90. exit 95 ( financial stock)

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones may close near days low and below this year's low

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

This market is even weaker then I thought. I'd be shocked if it doesn't gap down tomorrow.

z seven's next winning trade

BP spill… What ever marine life populations get decimated, the population never returns.
Valdez study.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

That is completely false. it took two years for the coast to recover from valdez.

z seven's next winning trade
Reply to  jimhobson

In fact, the marine population, still hasn't moved to pre-Valdez levels–It's still the same, 3 decades later.
btw, there's enough toxicity in the Gulf, to kill all the marine life.
Hopefully, they are wrong about this. Just has to play out.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

There was a report on FOX news this am that had one of the chief scientist that supervised the clean up of valdez and he disagrees.

z seven's next winning trade
Reply to  jimhobson

FOX news is absurd! go to some University sites..Fos is sort of dimwit / sensationalist.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Russell 2000 playing with major support area. If it cracks it, it should send the market lower (I think 624 is key).

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

The market is trying hard to hold on with every last breath… but it's not working. It looks like it's going to break key support today, which means tomorrow is going to be really ugly.

We'll see though… it might close flat today? Just think of how weak this market is now, because today is a Monday (almost always a bullish day), and we have NO news with light volume. That's not good for the bulls.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Just finally even on the day. Time decay and VIX can kill all options.

z seven's next winning trade

Tuesday signals, look confusing. DOW up, Q's down.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

They all look ready to break support to me Z… not confusing from the way I'm reading the charts?

z seven's next winning trade

AA 10.6, has an easy stop loss signal, 10.5

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

I knew it, SPX low was ~1058.

Sure hope spiralgraphs doesn't have its cycles backasswards, sort of looks like it unless we rally into close.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

The pre-market low was 1052.50 ES, so that could be our downside target for today Rip?

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

i'm not sure but cycle dates can be top or bottom

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We are banging on that 1052.50 pre-market low, and will probably pierce it soon.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

still haven't cracked support on russell or GS which makes me nervous.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

It will Monica,

Remember, today is Bullish Monday and volume is light. What will the rest of the week bring? It's coming down, and very soon I believe.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

we will have to have a major gap down in the morning to get to the expected level. I am staying short but this time I am nervous.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Nasdaq 100 breaks down from a head and shoulders pattern

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Charles Nenner calls for a NASDAQ low on June 18

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

If the markets behave like this June 18 is too long may happen before that

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

thanks jim- nenner is super (I think)

baminvestor has low on Monday june 21. the 18th is a friday
opx

mark you calanders!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Wasn't BAM's crash window from the 21st to the 25th meaning the low is on the 25th?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

ALERT ALERT – russell cracked support!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

IWM broke below 200 sma

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

yep.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Russell getting pounded. Don't believe we will have a bounce from here.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

about BAm investor

low on 7-8 of june tomorow is the 8th

then another low on june21st monday after opx june 18
below jimh… says nenner (he very good) says nasdaq bottome june 18 at opx

mark you calanders

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

please recheck my dates i'm not infallible but I'm darn sure

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

I don't have access to their site anymore so I'm sure you are right.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

More selling in the afterhours… not good for the bulls.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

my account has moved almost as much in the afterhours as it did during the day. never seen that happen.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

that's a sign of more of that to come 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

I don't know what news is out tomorrow… if any, but I think we gap down tomorrow and sell even more. The bulls just blew the most Bullish day of the week… and on light volume! That's speaks a lot for the strength of any up move coming.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It was refreshing to see this kind of move on light volume before I would get nervous. Looks like this is just a sign of more things to come.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

You got that right!

FTM
FTM
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hello RDL. Came across your site not too long ago. Good stuff here! Tell seeker401 that FTM said hello.

What is your guys take on this story? The “shock and awe” financial rescue package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will total euro750 billion ($1 trillion) – money that can be lent to any indebted eurozone nation risking default, and intended to counter investor fears that Spain, Portugal or others could follow Greece in requiring a bailout to meet debt repayments. http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100607/D9G6KE… -FTM

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  FTM

Sounds like another move lure in more retail bulls into market, so they can steal their money again. I don't think the market will be so quick to jump the gun and rally 400 points again, like they did the last time a bailout plan was made.

Borrow from the taxpapers, and give it to rich again. The people of the world are waking up to the scams. I think it will fail to save the market from another big down month.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Did you all notice the 20sma crossed the 200 on spy today. not as significant as the 50 crossing but its directional.

i am a little bummed we did not close below 1044 just to put the bulls to rest.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Have to give hope to the bulls before the rug gets pulled from underneath.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago

very quiet in the blogosphere tonight, strange after such a good sell off today

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Maybe everyone is still in shock that the market didn't rally today? Or, everyone is going on summer vacation early?

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

TK has a really good video tonight.

He says there is too much fear on the bear's part.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Thanks, I'll go drop by and watch it. No one hanging out in HOB chat I guess? I get tired of it too sometimes.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

It seems that there are now 2 oil leaks not one…

http://www.businessinsider.com/platform-23051-2

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