Bearish Monday…

158
1631

How rare it is too see a down Monday...

But, today was very bearish all day, with a very small bounce back up in the morning.  I really wasn't expecting too much of a rally today, however I thought 1080 was possible.   But, the bulls just didn't have anymore money left to buy it seems.  They had everything going for them... after all it was "Bullish Monday", the most bullish day of the week.  And, they had light volume (129 million shares of the SPY) working for them too, but they failed at every attempt to get something going.

Tomorrow doesn't look an better for them either, as daily chart has clearly rolled back down, with the monthly and weekly also supporting more selling.  They also broke through a key horizontal support level on many of the indexes.  On top of that, they are still stuck in a falling channel with no real support to stop the sell off, besides the 1040 area... which will likely be broken in the afterhours session, or tomorrow morning.

The lower trendline on the falling channel is now coming in around 990-1000 spx, which should provide some good support, since this falling channel has keep the market in it since the 1220 high.  From a technical point of view, the market isn't oversold on the monthly, weekly or daily charts.

The 60 minute charts was trying to rise back up today, from being oversold on Friday, but it turned back down at the end of the day.  It can go a lot lower as the ADX line is just now rising up, with the -DI line on top.  While it might feel like it's oversold... it's not, at least from reading the technical's it doesn't look like it too me.

The 15 minute chart is heading down, but isn't oversold yet either.  It's now in another falling channel of its' own.  There are still lots of negative things out there in the world that isn't helping the bulls any at all.  Some good news, and oversold conditions are going to be needed to rally this market.

That means we must sell off more, to put the charts in oversold conditions, before any serious rally could occur.  Gold was also rallying big today, which tells me that there is still fear in the market.  Gold is where people run for safety, when they fear the stock market.

On top of all that, most of the bank stocks sold off today.  So did Apple and Google, as well as oil related stocks.  Of course with the oil disaster still not solved, I don't see them rallying the market.  It probably going to come from some other sector... which one, I don't know?

Bottom line... the traders are still scared to buy.  Another lower low is most likely coming, unless some miracle bailout plan is created again.  I just don't see that happening again.  The Federal Reserve crooks are broke, and they can't steal anymore money from the taxpayers, as the people won't let them.

Let me remind everyone of these two charts from Cobras blog, showing the "Institutional Buying and Selling", and the "Long Term Trending Federal Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows".  As you can see, there isn't anymore bailout money left in to rally the market.  So who's left too buy now?

I'm expecting more selling tomorrow, with small intraday bounces.  My target is the lower trendline of the falling channel, coming in now around the 990-1000 level.  After that is tagged, I expect a nice rally up to occur, to work off the extreme oversold conditions that will happen from the move down.

Red

P.S.  SC, you don't have too read my posts or watch the video's... if you don't agree my "red pill" reports.  No point in leaving over spoiled milk... as the old saying goes.  I enjoy chatting with you, but if you feel the need to leave, I understand.

P.S.S.  Trolls, you might as well get used too me posting stories about you, as I plan to continue exposing the truth.  Not that it will be a daily thing, but from time to time, I'll be posting something that still keeps this site classified as a "Red Pill" site.  You're welcome to read it of course, but I don't know why you waste your time trying to distract the regular readers here by posting something of no value.  They aren't stupid you know... they know a troll when they see one.

158 COMMENTS

  1. I should post a correction on yest. post

    Monacidern take note

    Baminvestor said the market would turn down heavily from the 4th-8th of June and would also turn down heavily June 21st (monday) BUT +,- a couple or few days. (Previously I said the market would bottom on the 21st).

    Minus a few days from the 21st could be Wed/thurs 16th and 17 of June as the start of another downturn.

    Nenner said Nasdaq bottoms on the 18th which is opx friday

    so one bottom tomorrow or a little after then a rally, then another huge tumble going into opx. Just thinking out loud.

    • Ben,

      That is correct, and in line with what I'm thinking too. From an Astrology standpoint, June 8th is a reversal date, which lines up with BAM Investors too.

      I'm looking for a flush out, to get all the bears on board short. Very few bears in the market now, as they have been burnt too many times.

      Without bears to squeeze, how are you going to rally the market? They need bears to go short, and I believe many will do so once we pierce the magical 1000 level.

      Then you put on the brakes and reverse hard and create a 3-5 day rally. Bears get squeezed out again, and go back to sitting on the sideline in disbelief. Bulls think the correction is over… then BAM, you dump the market again for an entire week.

      It's perfect really, as the moving averages will probably get the death cross just before the dump in the market. Of course all the fund managers will see that, and they will all hit the panic button.

      Lot's of people don't look at the weekly and monthly charts, so they won't believe the sell off is real, until it's over. I know I didn't look at the longer term charts last year, and that's exactly why I kept losing money by shorting the market when it was clearly showing up bullish on those charts.

      You live and learn I guess… hopefully you learn.

      • When you say…”From an Astrology standpoint, June 8th is a reversal date, which lines up with BAM Investors too.”

        You mean we bottom on the 8th tomorrow Wed and then head up?

        • Here's the exact quote:

          “With the Moon and Jupiter in Aries joining Uranus in Aries, the market may decide it’s time to plough full speed ahead into risk. However, Jupiter conjoining Uranus in Aries might expand the scope of risk to be investing in U.S. sovereign debt and the dollar trade. It’s all a matter of whatever Jupiter and Uranus thinks has become exaggerated and overblown that presents the potential for a reversal. With Jupiter and Uranus conjoined in Aries, risks could change in a nanosecond. Jupiter was last in Aries from February 1999 to February 2000, corresponding to the peak of the dot com bubble. The 1987 crash occurred during the prior transit of Jupiter in Aries”.

          So it means that anytime in the day it could reverse, but I think it will close day, and rally on Wednesday. Just have too wait and see tomorrow and watch what levels we hit.

          • Here's more for you Ben:

            Monday, June 7, 2010
            Strong aspects between Mars, Jupiter and Uranus can bring large market moves in either or both directions, but I think these influences could reverse to positive.

            ….. and the details for the day …

          • People email me stuff, and that was an email from a friend yesterday. The astrology stuff was also from a friend. I'm not sure how they come up with the forecasts, but I thought I'd just post it anyway.

  2. Here's more for you Ben:

    Monday, June 7, 2010
    Strong aspects between Mars, Jupiter and Uranus can bring large market moves in either or both directions, but I think these influences could reverse to positive.

    Tuesday, June 8, 2010
    Strongest in the morning and weakens as the day progresses; closes negative.

    Wednesday, June 9, 2010
    Positive.

    Thursday, June 10, 2010
    Positive trend bias.

    Friday, June 11, 2010
    Choppy/mixed to moderately positive.

  3. This is Bam investors big day the time where we still go down (not up) I haven't subscribed yet. But what's their latest scoop for today?

  4. Good Morning gang…

    Just remember that if we dump hard today, a nice 3-5 day rally should follow. So be ready to exit all shorts and go long if you are brave enough. (or stay in cash and wait to re-short)

  5. FYI- Rick Ackerman sees a POSSIBLE turning pt (we bounce from) 1022 on the emini s&P, based on his method which can be “incanningly accurate” but it my just pause, its good for a long with a tight stop he would say. It coincides nearly with the daily and weekly BB which are dropping hard now.

    I really hope we go lower

  6. Red,
    My guess is that we go up to where we were in futures overnight (1061) and then plummet.

    • Yes Monica,

      The 60 minute chart is still trying to rise back up to the zero line, and cross over into positive territory. I don't know if it will make it there or not?

      But, we should move up in the morning, and sell off in the afternoon, if I'm reading the charts correctly.

  7. Red,

    Just remember, just because you see a news story does not mean it is the truth. The media is the most untrusted profession even more untrustworthy than politicians according to a pole done by Time magazine ( can you imagine ?) about a year ago.

    The advent of internet reporting has its good and bad. There are a lot more cracks out there trying to get into the pot and they are no more qualified than the rest.

    i could tell you a few stories that have happened in the Iraq Afghan campaigns that would curl your hair if you knew the truth and the news media completely botched and flat out lied.

    • Oh but you BELIEVE the TIME magazine poll? Polls are the most played with news item of all. Your greater point is correct however. The real problem is no one can know what the real truth is anymore.

      • I do not believe many polls. But a poll done by an extreme left bias magazine that denigrates it own tends to have credibility.

        Jim

    • Jim,

      I agree completely that the news media in America lies. They are all controlled and only allowed to print approved stories. That's why I look to the internet for news. That story was from Russia TV.

      I don't know if it's real or not, but I do believe that Goldman Sachs profited from the event. Meaning that they knew it was going to happen in advance. Also meaning that it was planned… the “Who” part is anyone's guess?

    • That 60 minute chart is still trying to rise up Jim. It might take all day, and fail again in the afternoon. I think more selling is coming, but after all the charts line up pointing in the same direction… down.

      • or maybe it will happen sooner?? look at Hawaii's chart – big down, followed by a big up, followed by another big down. So my guess is we get to 1000 or so, bounce hard, then fall towards the end of day to below 1000.

  8. Divergences in the indexes. Strange. Last night on CNBC they showed nasdaq futures down 40 while the other index futures were up. I am not sure it was a typo, a print from earlier, or what.

  9. We should be moving higher, as the 15 minute chart is now trying to cross over into positive territory, from being oversold on the histogram bars.

    The 60 minute chart is still trying to rise up as well. If the bulls can push a little harder, I think they could get to 1060 today. But, there are still a lot of trapped bulls waiting for a exit bounce to happen… meaning that they might not get much of one?

    • It should breakout to the upside San, as the shorter time frame charts are oversold. But, who knows? Lot's of trapped bulls ready to sell on any bounce higher.

      • Yes Leo the shorter time frames is also showing positive divergence. Lets see how it goes from here

    • That's cool, San, thanks for posting.

      There was a positive divergence in money flow late yesterday afternoon in SPX, and I am looking for a rally about that size.

      I acquired additional short inventory this morning at 1056, will buy more at 1065 and 1078 if we get that far.

      • it will be very interesting to see if we rally. I would say no except for the fact that the day action has been following the night action to a degree. I would say highest we get is 1061

  10. my 2 cents

    jaywiz says rally midday. perhaps we bounce off Rick Ackerman's 1022, then drop later in the afternoon.

    actually his “ekg” says drop into late day and bounce near the close. But the bounce could reflect after market hours.

  11. Dip buyers are running the tape now. They just came in on the double bottom around 1040. Should be over soon, as trapped bulls will sell into any bounce now.

    I think the next time we go down to the 1040 level, it will break through it. Not much support below, and a flush down to 990-1000 could easily happen. Maybe by the end of the day? Who knows?

        • 9896 based on overnight action. Don't know whether the DJIA or the S&P levels will be the trigger? Maybe they will both reach those numbers at the same time? But, the DJIA look more evil so I'm going with those!

    • Yeah,

      Everything is going up, trying to work off the oversold conditions now. It will be interesting to see what happens at the end of the day, when they have all topped out.

      If they roll back down, then we will sell off into the close. If not, we could rally some more, until it peaks out and gets overbought. How much is overbought, is the question? Just have too wait and see.

  12. Just post 11 hours from BAM Investors: “June 9 and 10 are possible crash dates. Bigger-picture, an even more intense crash window appears into June 17/18th as well.”

      • LOL Monica…

        If it makes you feel any better, the 60 minute chart should be ready to roll back down by the end of the day, and the 15 minute chart too. Once the all line up together, we will have another big move down.

        No one gets it's perfect you know. So being off one or two days is still pretty accurate. And remember, those guys don't do options. They are long term players.

        • yes, but on the other side red, tomorrow could be a big up so i don't think i'll be holding a position overnight.

          • Maybe? It's hard to say? I'll be waiting to see what the charts say at the end of the day. We only know that today is a turn date… but which way? Up, or Down?

          • We shall see. Let's see if GS can break the 135 level. At least the Russell has broken down.

    • so bam changes the plan. ugh but look at that lower BB!!! just waiting to get hit. Doesn't look like its going to rally till that lower BB gets hit or tear right thru it.

      jawizz appears to think now no sell off (but just one of his bloggers, rrman is his name

      appears to want to foil the bulls hear (but I'm biased) spike higher to wreck the bears, then spike lower to wreck the bulls etc etc repeat

  13. after rrman negated (his opinion) afternoon sell off Jaywiz stated:

    Jay Strauss said…
    Benjoice,
    Today's sell off may only end the day with no gain, or a minor loss.
    BUT tomorrw promises to be lower
    Will cnofirm with PRELIm EKG later today

    • Sometimes it takes a little longer then expected, but I believe Jay could be right on tomorrow selling off. Once the shorter time frame charts get overbought, and line up with the larger time frames… the selling should be severe.

  14. OK – so there are auctions today tomorrow and Thursday so maybe we won't rally until after the auctions.

  15. alright – think I have changed my mind. We have treasury auctions today, tomorrow and Thursday which should correspond to weakness in the market.

  16. Oh joy! were are down rather hard last half hour. Just got off a ladder, I'm a house painter with an air card. I'm going to retire from this business and use my brain (I do have one) get the right tools and the right info which I never had before.

  17. nearing 1040 doesn;t look good for the bulls. maybe bam is correct. so far so good. if we do “bottom' short term on thurs . maybe we can get a real SHARP rally for three days, then wimp out and traders tank it 17th and on

  18. from jaywizz site

    csiwallstreet has a interesting site–He has made some great calls for timing and price the past few years–Current analog has posibilities–of MAJOR CRASH by June 18–FWI

    • I think there will be a big rally next Monday and Tuesday that will fall flat by EOW, leave practically all option holders (long and short) out of the money, which is the norm.

      • good point rip. But there is end of the month for the emini s&p. I'll do both. Assuming I have any money

  19. I believe now that the “turn dates” given too us are flipped over. I believe that today's turn date of the 8th, will be a high, and the other turn date on the 12th, will be a low.

    Then a run up for 3-5 days, followed by another move down into the 25th, for a finally low. Then a summer/fall rally into September.

  20. Looks like they are trying to manipulate another run.

    The volume must be very low for these swings to occur

    • The 60 minute chart will be in overbought territory by the end of the day, or first thing tomorrow. The 15 is already in overbought territory now.

      When they turn back down together… either in to the close today, or tomorrow morning, we should have another leg down in the market. This time we should take out the 1040 support area

  21. I think that fake print low on the Dow maybe our short-term bottom, if it gets confirmed with some bullish divergence. A Drop to 97 for the DIA ETF from the current levels corresponds with about a 1033-1035 level on the S&P, slighly lower than the low on 2/5 and 5/25 but now lower than the 11/2 low, which many technicians have said the S&P would need to close under to truly launch into a bear market.

    • Well,

      Mr. TopStep posted this earlier today…

      “ESM SPM are LOADED with sell stops under 1139.00 down to 1134.00 so far we have a total of 1.1mil minis traded”

      Now keep in mind that they most likely meant to post 1039 and 1034, instead of 1139 and 1134… simply mistake, as I've just now got used too 2010, instead of 2009.

      Anyway, it means that they will likely go down and take out those stops at some point. Today or tomorrow… who knows? But I think they will go down more.

      Here is their latest video too…

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DWL6boFnls

      • Red, that seems to correspond with my thoughts about us find some sort of potential short-term bottom at that fake print, which just happens to correspond to that level on the S&P. Once those stops are taken out, maybe we go to like 1030, but then have a deadcat bounce up from there before the next big leg down. Unless we get confirmation with lower low on the RSI below the Feb level. Then we could be in for a decent rally to finish off that potential H&S pattern on the Daily charts.

    • I'm staying short too Monica.

      Today is just a “pause” day to work off the oversold conditions. I see it dropping again tomorrow afternoon. We are still pointing down on the daily charts, and the 60 minute is putting in a bear flag now. Plus the 15 minute is overbought. I'm staying put.

    • LOL..

      That tells me the overall market isn't buying into this rally. Tape is still very weak. I don't want whipsawed out of my position, that's why I stayed short.

      • You need to understand how the market works to trade it. The VIX calculation period ends on Thursday and that was obvious last week.

        Best to stay away from options until you know what you are doing.

    • It has do do with Money Flow. They QQQQ's ran up the highest therefore when the Mutual Funds liquidate they transfer funds out the fastest.

  22. Looks like last trade on Ameritrade is showing 3:07. I guess quotes stopped updating then? Oh lord.

  23. never knew you could get think or swim for free through ameritrade. Boy do I feel like a doof.

Comments are closed.