Saturday, April 13, 2024

Bearish Monday…

How rare it is too see a down Monday...

But, today was very bearish all day, with a very small bounce back up in the morning.  I really wasn't expecting too much of a rally today, however I thought 1080 was possible.   But, the bulls just didn't have anymore money left to buy it seems.  They had everything going for them... after all it was "Bullish Monday", the most bullish day of the week.  And, they had light volume (129 million shares of the SPY) working for them too, but they failed at every attempt to get something going.

Tomorrow doesn't look an better for them either, as daily chart has clearly rolled back down, with the monthly and weekly also supporting more selling.  They also broke through a key horizontal support level on many of the indexes.  On top of that, they are still stuck in a falling channel with no real support to stop the sell off, besides the 1040 area... which will likely be broken in the afterhours session, or tomorrow morning.

The lower trendline on the falling channel is now coming in around 990-1000 spx, which should provide some good support, since this falling channel has keep the market in it since the 1220 high.  From a technical point of view, the market isn't oversold on the monthly, weekly or daily charts.

The 60 minute charts was trying to rise back up today, from being oversold on Friday, but it turned back down at the end of the day.  It can go a lot lower as the ADX line is just now rising up, with the -DI line on top.  While it might feel like it's oversold... it's not, at least from reading the technical's it doesn't look like it too me.

The 15 minute chart is heading down, but isn't oversold yet either.  It's now in another falling channel of its' own.  There are still lots of negative things out there in the world that isn't helping the bulls any at all.  Some good news, and oversold conditions are going to be needed to rally this market.

That means we must sell off more, to put the charts in oversold conditions, before any serious rally could occur.  Gold was also rallying big today, which tells me that there is still fear in the market.  Gold is where people run for safety, when they fear the stock market.

On top of all that, most of the bank stocks sold off today.  So did Apple and Google, as well as oil related stocks.  Of course with the oil disaster still not solved, I don't see them rallying the market.  It probably going to come from some other sector... which one, I don't know?

Bottom line... the traders are still scared to buy.  Another lower low is most likely coming, unless some miracle bailout plan is created again.  I just don't see that happening again.  The Federal Reserve crooks are broke, and they can't steal anymore money from the taxpayers, as the people won't let them.

Let me remind everyone of these two charts from Cobras blog, showing the "Institutional Buying and Selling", and the "Long Term Trending Federal Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows".  As you can see, there isn't anymore bailout money left in to rally the market.  So who's left too buy now?

I'm expecting more selling tomorrow, with small intraday bounces.  My target is the lower trendline of the falling channel, coming in now around the 990-1000 level.  After that is tagged, I expect a nice rally up to occur, to work off the extreme oversold conditions that will happen from the move down.

Red

P.S.  SC, you don't have too read my posts or watch the video's... if you don't agree my "red pill" reports.  No point in leaving over spoiled milk... as the old saying goes.  I enjoy chatting with you, but if you feel the need to leave, I understand.

P.S.S.  Trolls, you might as well get used too me posting stories about you, as I plan to continue exposing the truth.  Not that it will be a daily thing, but from time to time, I'll be posting something that still keeps this site classified as a "Red Pill" site.  You're welcome to read it of course, but I don't know why you waste your time trying to distract the regular readers here by posting something of no value.  They aren't stupid you know... they know a troll when they see one.

Red
Author: Red

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rationalnational
rationalnational
13 years ago

Bring on 990! Good post Red =)

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Thanks…

Let's just hope we get a nice flush out tomorrow, and big rally back up, so we can all get short again.

Illinikap
Illinikap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Dow e-mini fake print today at 9673 and on DIA it was 97.00 even. Wonder if we are headed there tomorrow.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Illinikap

Thanks!

steveo77
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Short from 1103, staying that way, no need to “play cute” and try to time every wave or astro event

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

I should post a correction on yest. post

Monacidern take note

Baminvestor said the market would turn down heavily from the 4th-8th of June and would also turn down heavily June 21st (monday) BUT +,- a couple or few days. (Previously I said the market would bottom on the 21st).

Minus a few days from the 21st could be Wed/thurs 16th and 17 of June as the start of another downturn.

Nenner said Nasdaq bottoms on the 18th which is opx friday

so one bottom tomorrow or a little after then a rally, then another huge tumble going into opx. Just thinking out loud.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Ben,

That is correct, and in line with what I'm thinking too. From an Astrology standpoint, June 8th is a reversal date, which lines up with BAM Investors too.

I'm looking for a flush out, to get all the bears on board short. Very few bears in the market now, as they have been burnt too many times.

Without bears to squeeze, how are you going to rally the market? They need bears to go short, and I believe many will do so once we pierce the magical 1000 level.

Then you put on the brakes and reverse hard and create a 3-5 day rally. Bears get squeezed out again, and go back to sitting on the sideline in disbelief. Bulls think the correction is over… then BAM, you dump the market again for an entire week.

It's perfect really, as the moving averages will probably get the death cross just before the dump in the market. Of course all the fund managers will see that, and they will all hit the panic button.

Lot's of people don't look at the weekly and monthly charts, so they won't believe the sell off is real, until it's over. I know I didn't look at the longer term charts last year, and that's exactly why I kept losing money by shorting the market when it was clearly showing up bullish on those charts.

You live and learn I guess… hopefully you learn.

Al
Al
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Totally agree with you two…Train is on the right track to the south.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

When you say…”From an Astrology standpoint, June 8th is a reversal date, which lines up with BAM Investors too.”

You mean we bottom on the 8th tomorrow Wed and then head up?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Here's the exact quote:

“With the Moon and Jupiter in Aries joining Uranus in Aries, the market may decide it’s time to plough full speed ahead into risk. However, Jupiter conjoining Uranus in Aries might expand the scope of risk to be investing in U.S. sovereign debt and the dollar trade. It’s all a matter of whatever Jupiter and Uranus thinks has become exaggerated and overblown that presents the potential for a reversal. With Jupiter and Uranus conjoined in Aries, risks could change in a nanosecond. Jupiter was last in Aries from February 1999 to February 2000, corresponding to the peak of the dot com bubble. The 1987 crash occurred during the prior transit of Jupiter in Aries”.

So it means that anytime in the day it could reverse, but I think it will close day, and rally on Wednesday. Just have too wait and see tomorrow and watch what levels we hit.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red – where do you get this from and the bias for the days ?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

What information exactly are you talking about?

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Here's more for you Ben:

Monday, June 7, 2010
Strong aspects between Mars, Jupiter and Uranus can bring large market moves in either or both directions, but I think these influences could reverse to positive.

….. and the details for the day …

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

People email me stuff, and that was an email from a friend yesterday. The astrology stuff was also from a friend. I'm not sure how they come up with the forecasts, but I thought I'd just post it anyway.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Here's more for you Ben:

Monday, June 7, 2010
Strong aspects between Mars, Jupiter and Uranus can bring large market moves in either or both directions, but I think these influences could reverse to positive.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Strongest in the morning and weakens as the day progresses; closes negative.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Positive.

Thursday, June 10, 2010
Positive trend bias.

Friday, June 11, 2010
Choppy/mixed to moderately positive.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

For those bears worried about the futures action, maybe we don't have to worry? Check this out.
http://content.screencast.com/users/neslo/folde

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

By the way – this is from OAH trading.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

This is Bam investors big day the time where we still go down (not up) I haven't subscribed yet. But what's their latest scoop for today?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Good Morning gang…

Just remember that if we dump hard today, a nice 3-5 day rally should follow. So be ready to exit all shorts and go long if you are brave enough. (or stay in cash and wait to re-short)

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

FYI- Rick Ackerman sees a POSSIBLE turning pt (we bounce from) 1022 on the emini s&P, based on his method which can be “incanningly accurate” but it my just pause, its good for a long with a tight stop he would say. It coincides nearly with the daily and weekly BB which are dropping hard now.

I really hope we go lower

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Red,
My guess is that we go up to where we were in futures overnight (1061) and then plummet.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yes Monica,

The 60 minute chart is still trying to rise back up to the zero line, and cross over into positive territory. I don't know if it will make it there or not?

But, we should move up in the morning, and sell off in the afternoon, if I'm reading the charts correctly.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Red,

Just remember, just because you see a news story does not mean it is the truth. The media is the most untrusted profession even more untrustworthy than politicians according to a pole done by Time magazine ( can you imagine ?) about a year ago.

The advent of internet reporting has its good and bad. There are a lot more cracks out there trying to get into the pot and they are no more qualified than the rest.

i could tell you a few stories that have happened in the Iraq Afghan campaigns that would curl your hair if you knew the truth and the news media completely botched and flat out lied.

VinylMan
VinylMan
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Oh but you BELIEVE the TIME magazine poll? Polls are the most played with news item of all. Your greater point is correct however. The real problem is no one can know what the real truth is anymore.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  VinylMan

I do not believe many polls. But a poll done by an extreme left bias magazine that denigrates it own tends to have credibility.

Jim

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Jim,

I agree completely that the news media in America lies. They are all controlled and only allowed to print approved stories. That's why I look to the internet for news. That story was from Russia TV.

I don't know if it's real or not, but I do believe that Goldman Sachs profited from the event. Meaning that they knew it was going to happen in advance. Also meaning that it was planned… the “Who” part is anyone's guess?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Any rally today will be sold into. headed to 1010

anoopsan
13 years ago
anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow is showing positive divergence in hourly chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Bulls are not buying into this

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

That 60 minute chart is still trying to rise up Jim. It might take all day, and fail again in the afternoon. I think more selling is coming, but after all the charts line up pointing in the same direction… down.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

or maybe it will happen sooner?? look at Hawaii's chart – big down, followed by a big up, followed by another big down. So my guess is we get to 1000 or so, bounce hard, then fall towards the end of day to below 1000.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

nevermind, looks like that may play out on a longer time frame from his chart (maybe a week or so). Today should be just straight down I think.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Straight down is much better. LOL

🙂

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

They will suck all the bears in first, short squeeze them up to 1061 and then dive.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yes, although I suppose that would be too easy!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We should be moving higher, as the 15 minute chart is now trying to cross over into positive territory, from being oversold on the histogram bars.

The 60 minute chart is still trying to rise up as well. If the bulls can push a little harder, I think they could get to 1060 today. But, there are still a lot of trapped bulls waiting for a exit bounce to happen… meaning that they might not get much of one?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I guess we should go out and come back at the end of the day. My account is down huge with only a small move up here.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

It's the vix and time decay. Yeah, go out and come back later seems like a smart idea. But, I like watching the action…

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Divergences in the indexes. Strange. Last night on CNBC they showed nasdaq futures down 40 while the other index futures were up. I am not sure it was a typo, a print from earlier, or what.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones 2 hours chart descending triangle

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

It should breakout to the upside San, as the shorter time frame charts are oversold. But, who knows? Lot's of trapped bulls ready to sell on any bounce higher.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yes Leo the shorter time frames is also showing positive divergence. Lets see how it goes from here

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

That's cool, San, thanks for posting.

There was a positive divergence in money flow late yesterday afternoon in SPX, and I am looking for a rally about that size.

I acquired additional short inventory this morning at 1056, will buy more at 1065 and 1078 if we get that far.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

it will be very interesting to see if we rally. I would say no except for the fact that the day action has been following the night action to a degree. I would say highest we get is 1061

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

nasdaq can't get it up though.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Maybe it needs some Cialis or Viagra? LOL

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

don't know if that will even help!

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

Jaywiz has us down into the close. his charts do not indicate amplitude only direction

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Looking ugly now….

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

you mean beautiful

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

LOL…. exactly!

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

my 2 cents

jaywiz says rally midday. perhaps we bounce off Rick Ackerman's 1022, then drop later in the afternoon.

actually his “ekg” says drop into late day and bounce near the close. But the bounce could reflect after market hours.

anoopsan
13 years ago

SP 500 support and resistance lines in chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

It seems that there are now 2 oil leaks not one…

http://www.businessinsider.com/platform-23051-2

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Dip buyers are running the tape now. They just came in on the double bottom around 1040. Should be over soon, as trapped bulls will sell into any bounce now.

I think the next time we go down to the 1040 level, it will break through it. Not much support below, and a flush down to 990-1000 could easily happen. Maybe by the end of the day? Who knows?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

think we could go up to 1061 based on overnight action

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Looks like we might get up to 1061-1066 after all, as we broke outside of the falling channel now.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

1061 is my best guess. Or maybe 9896 on the dow. How do you like those numbers?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Could be Monica? That 1061 level will be a double top, and provide resistance now. What level are you calling 98% on the Dow?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

9896 based on overnight action. Don't know whether the DJIA or the S&P levels will be the trigger? Maybe they will both reach those numbers at the same time? But, the DJIA look more evil so I'm going with those!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

DJIA Numbers that is.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I think we need to go up to that 1061-1066 area, so we can squeeze out all the shorts. Then we can tank again.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

HEY – we already reached 9896 on the DJIA. Let's see what happens.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Anyone notice the action in the Russell? Strong divergences.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yeah,

Everything is going up, trying to work off the oversold conditions now. It will be interesting to see what happens at the end of the day, when they have all topped out.

If they roll back down, then we will sell off into the close. If not, we could rally some more, until it peaks out and gets overbought. How much is overbought, is the question? Just have too wait and see.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow jones pennant that can take it pass 9900
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Looks like a nice Bull Flag to me. It's also a B wave down in an ABC move up to 1061-1066 spx.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Just post 11 hours from BAM Investors: “June 9 and 10 are possible crash dates. Bigger-picture, an even more intense crash window appears into June 17/18th as well.”

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

so bam changes the plan. ugh but look at that lower BB!!! just waiting to get hit. Doesn't look like its going to rally till that lower BB gets hit or tear right thru it.

jawizz appears to think now no sell off (but just one of his bloggers, rrman is his name

appears to want to foil the bulls hear (but I'm biased) spike higher to wreck the bears, then spike lower to wreck the bulls etc etc repeat

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks for nothing BAM! Timing is everything in this business 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL Monica…

If it makes you feel any better, the 60 minute chart should be ready to roll back down by the end of the day, and the 15 minute chart too. Once the all line up together, we will have another big move down.

No one gets it's perfect you know. So being off one or two days is still pretty accurate. And remember, those guys don't do options. They are long term players.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yes, but on the other side red, tomorrow could be a big up so i don't think i'll be holding a position overnight.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Maybe? It's hard to say? I'll be waiting to see what the charts say at the end of the day. We only know that today is a turn date… but which way? Up, or Down?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

We shall see. Let's see if GS can break the 135 level. At least the Russell has broken down.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

after rrman negated (his opinion) afternoon sell off Jaywiz stated:

Jay Strauss said…
Benjoice,
Today's sell off may only end the day with no gain, or a minor loss.
BUT tomorrw promises to be lower
Will cnofirm with PRELIm EKG later today

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Sometimes it takes a little longer then expected, but I believe Jay could be right on tomorrow selling off. Once the shorter time frame charts get overbought, and line up with the larger time frames… the selling should be severe.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

so jawizz is delaying his sell off. ?consistant with Bam ugh

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

i'm going to watch GS for clues.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Watch the dollar and the euro too.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I think 135 in GS is more key but I will be watching everything.

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Personally, I'd be concerned of my own short position if 1061 is breached

blue dotted line in this hourly chart: http://screencast.com/t/OWU4ZWIzM2Y

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

I completely agree. I think that is my line in the sand.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Dread had said that the market tends to rally after the treasury auction (people buy into treasuries when the market is down). Is that this Thursday?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Don't know, but Thursday does have the Treasury Budget, which is expected to come in at $154.0 Billion.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don't think that one matters but we do have the 30 year bond auction on Thusrday. But, we had the 3 year note today so I don't know which one is the important one. European markets closed down.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow jones bull flag gave a nice upmove. Now may be it's time for bulls to exit
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Does the same apply to the spx and spy? Looks like a truncated C wave if it doesn't get above the A wave high.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

for sp500 below 1048 is the place for bulls to exit

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Thanks Anoopsan. I like your charts.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Thank u

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

I too like your charts San… keep up the good work.

Also, go into your disqus account and make your name a “click-able” link to your website…. like mine is. It will get you more traffic, for those times when you are simply commenting on someone's site, and don't post a link. People will click on your name sometimes and check out your website.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks for that idea.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

OK – so there are auctions today tomorrow and Thursday so maybe we won't rally until after the auctions.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

alright – think I have changed my mind. We have treasury auctions today, tomorrow and Thursday which should correspond to weakness in the market.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

new lows – GS. We are getting near that 135 level.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

Oh joy! were are down rather hard last half hour. Just got off a ladder, I'm a house painter with an air card. I'm going to retire from this business and use my brain (I do have one) get the right tools and the right info which I never had before.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

I used too paint about 15-20 years ago. Tough work out in the hot Florida sun.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

have no fear!

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I'm on Cape Cod Ma. now painting a 11 bedroom on the water on a small island

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Sweet… not too hot up there then.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

nearing 1040 doesn;t look good for the bulls. maybe bam is correct. so far so good. if we do “bottom' short term on thurs . maybe we can get a real SHARP rally for three days, then wimp out and traders tank it 17th and on

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Here is an interesting post from Atilla, who called the 2008 crash, which made him wealth….

http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/06/they-are-still

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks for this red.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I don't know Atilla personally, as I wasn't around the blogsphere in 2008, but other posters I know (people with Disqus accounts, that were on various blogs commenting back then), stated that he did indeed call the crash correctly.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

He also called the March 2009 bottom correctly, and told everyone to cover their shorts.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

from jaywizz site

csiwallstreet has a interesting site–He has made some great calls for timing and price the past few years–Current analog has posibilities–of MAJOR CRASH by June 18–FWI

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Do you have a link to it, or is it subscription only?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I believe now that the “turn dates” given too us are flipped over. I believe that today's turn date of the 8th, will be a high, and the other turn date on the 12th, will be a low.

Then a run up for 3-5 days, followed by another move down into the 25th, for a finally low. Then a summer/fall rally into September.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

too many pointing to a “crash” june 17 or 18 area. ???

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

I think there will be a big rally next Monday and Tuesday that will fall flat by EOW, leave practically all option holders (long and short) out of the money, which is the norm.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

good point rip. But there is end of the month for the emini s&p. I'll do both. Assuming I have any money

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Duh… too obvious I guess?

illinikap
illinikap
13 years ago

Inverse H&S on 5 minute ES chart?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  illinikap

Didn't you say you caught a fake print on the Dow? Do you have a screen shot of it?

illinikap
illinikap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yes I do, but don't know where I could upload it. Any suggestions?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  illinikap

Sign up for a free screencast account, and upload it there. Or email it to me, and I'll post it for you.

illinikap
illinikap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Just sent it. Thanks. There was massive volume on that 1 minute candle for both the Dow E-mini and DIA etf.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  illinikap

Thanks Illinikap…

Here it is for everyone…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow jones triangle in 5 minutes chart

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Looks like they are trying to manipulate another run.

The volume must be very low for these swings to occur

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

The 60 minute chart will be in overbought territory by the end of the day, or first thing tomorrow. The 15 is already in overbought territory now.

When they turn back down together… either in to the close today, or tomorrow morning, we should have another leg down in the market. This time we should take out the 1040 support area

z seven's next winning trade
Reply to  jimhobson

New thread…Let's first see if there's any fish left at all, after this spill is over and done with. Rumors have it, 2 species went extinct 2 or 3 days ago.

illinikap
illinikap
13 years ago

I think that fake print low on the Dow maybe our short-term bottom, if it gets confirmed with some bullish divergence. A Drop to 97 for the DIA ETF from the current levels corresponds with about a 1033-1035 level on the S&P, slighly lower than the low on 2/5 and 5/25 but now lower than the 11/2 low, which many technicians have said the S&P would need to close under to truly launch into a bear market.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  illinikap

Well,

Mr. TopStep posted this earlier today…

“ESM SPM are LOADED with sell stops under 1139.00 down to 1134.00 so far we have a total of 1.1mil minis traded”

Now keep in mind that they most likely meant to post 1039 and 1034, instead of 1139 and 1134… simply mistake, as I've just now got used too 2010, instead of 2009.

Anyway, it means that they will likely go down and take out those stops at some point. Today or tomorrow… who knows? But I think they will go down more.

Here is their latest video too…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DWL6boFnls

illinikap
illinikap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, that seems to correspond with my thoughts about us find some sort of potential short-term bottom at that fake print, which just happens to correspond to that level on the S&P. Once those stops are taken out, maybe we go to like 1030, but then have a deadcat bounce up from there before the next big leg down. Unless we get confirmation with lower low on the RSI below the Feb level. Then we could be in for a decent rally to finish off that potential H&S pattern on the Daily charts.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

covering my shorts on thursday in line with the final treasury auction.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I'm staying short too Monica.

Today is just a “pause” day to work off the oversold conditions. I see it dropping again tomorrow afternoon. We are still pointing down on the daily charts, and the 60 minute is putting in a bear flag now. Plus the 15 minute is overbought. I'm staying put.

illinikap
illinikap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I think we rally through tomorrow some point to about 1070-1072 on ES or about $107.60 on SPY. Then the sell-off commences again.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  illinikap

I've been expecting it to rally to 1070-1072 all day, but it seems too weak to do it. Maybe it will tomorrow?

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

i dunno. looks like we are going to get to that 1061 today after all!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  illinikap

very possible.

illinikap
illinikap
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

ES just broke out of an inverse H&S and already backtested the neckline. Target is about 1071.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

got to 1061. Let's see what happens.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Strangely, my account value hasn't changed in this last part of the run up.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Mine has been whipsawed up and down like a chicken leg in a box of “shake and bake”.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don't know why mine isn't moving. I logged off and logged back in and nothing has changed?!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I wonder if Ameritrade isn't updating quotes. This is making me nervous that it hasn't changed.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Mine is updating in the “ThinkorSwim” software, but I haven't logged into the Ameritrade account directly to check.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

maybe the volume is just so thin that my puts aren't being traded.

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