for the Bears at least...
Today end up being a "pause" day, or basically flat. The market sold off in the morning on the horrible housing data, but slowly inched its' way back up to close down only a few points. The Fed's kept the rates the same (not like I really expected them to raise them), and nothing else major happened throughout the day.
There was an quick move down, and hard reversal back up, when the meeting minutes were released at 2:15pm est. I'm sure that shook out a lot of bears and trapped a few bulls. But in the end, the market just basically traded sideways the rest of the day.
Ok, so here's a pop quiz for you... what kind of pattern did today put in on the 60 minute and 15 minute charts? Do do do do, do do do... do, da-do, do, do do do.... time's up. Yes, it's a bear flag! You win today's Jeopardy grand prize... a nice move down tomorrow.
Well, of course nothing is written in stone, as the market could continue sideways to up tomorrow... but I think there is a really good chance that the bear flag plays out tomorrow, and maybe Friday too? We still haven't went down and touched the lower channel trendline on the 60 minute chart, which is around 1075-1080 area.
If that level breaks, then we should fall on down to retest the 1040 level. Since we hit that area of support several times now, if we hit it again, it will likely fail. Then I would look for the monthly 20ma (currently at 994) to be then next major support. I do believe that a move below 1040 area is going to panic a lot of bulls.
Which means a lot of selling, and that means that minor supports will be broken quickly. That's why I mentioned the major support level from the monthly. Of course there will be intraday bounces going down, but they probably won't last too long. Once the bulls start running for the exits, they don't usually stop to take a breather.
Now, with all that bearishness, let's look at the bull's point of view too. If the 1075-1080 holds tomorrow, then a bounce back up to finish the wave C up in an ABC move could start at that point. That would be the move up to make the right shoulder around 1150 that everyone and their brother is now looking for.
Let's just be honest with ourselves a little here. Do you really think they will make it so obvious, and allow everyone to get in just at the perfect spot? I think you know better then that by now. We all know that they will likely trick everyone... both bulls and bears, and not allow either to make any money from whichever direction they decide to take the market.
So for tomorrow, I'm expecting the market to fall through the 1080 support area and continue on down south. Others say we bounce, and go make wave C up. I disagree... but no one now for sure, as we could both be wrong? You just never know. But the charts tell me more selling coming.
Best of luck to both bulls and bears tomorrow...
Red
Dow jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
So what's your thoughts on tomorrow San? up, down, sideways… what do think tomorrow will bring?
For Dow As 10260 has held on closing basis it should go up.
S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell. This index is looking weaker than Dow
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
I believe it could go up a little more tomorrow morning, but at some point I believe the bear flag it's making will play out, and another move down will happen.
The daily trend which has been up for many days has turned down now. and when an index or stock trades below 50 and 200 DMA's Short would be the ideal and safe trade to go. But there are some supports in daily chart which need to break.
Bulls are waking up in hell today.
The news headlines re: housing starts and FOMC seemed rather bland yesterday afternoon, but this morning are causing shock and awe across the globe.
I was pretty sure the top was in on Monday because of CPCE trend (see Cobra's site) but thought we'd be farting around with a little rally today. Turns out it will be a gap down unless something really amazing happens by the opening.
Retail is being informed of impending doom so that they will have an opportunity to sell near the bottom, I think. I'm planning to cover Monday, but may move it up if we we have a very stunning day today, Fat Freddie style.
After this sell-off, I am looking for a rally up to the MAs one more time, but will stay 50% short at all times.
In a way I hate to bring these guys up but Preservento is looking for a huge down move around the 28th. Who can get details? What about BAM?. Attilla has some usual intellectual generalizations but doesnt seem like your going to learn much from him.
These guys really threw me off 2-3 wks ago but where are they now?
Atilla said in a post that 1130 will look like everest by the end of next week. He did call for a gap down this morning. However, who knows if we retest that high early next week?
U.S. Markets view before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
TZA is swooping down pre-market from some high place. The feeling is like if your woman were to come home at 7am smelling of aftershave and whiskey, but insisting that she was taking care of a sick friend.
Crash on hold?
http://screencast.com/t/ZGY4MDJkNmEt
http://screencast.com/t/ZGI0MTFhMDIt
Those with 'an eagle eye' may notice the interesting volume…
I think that's the UK equivalent of yesterday's 2:15 stop loss ripoff.
They copy us in slavish detail sometimes.
Diablos I saw that the big $ betting on some bullish moves
You think the bull move happens today? I guess it's impossible to know.
According to the 30 and 60 yes it could be. We could see 1092 at the least 🙁
K – it's so hard to know. When they do take it down, all the technicals will probably be out of wack anyway. The fact that they gapped it below support though, makes me think they are leading the bears in so they can take it higher on last time. Remember Red's print way back when though that took place on 6/25? Makes me think tomorrow morning will be a low before they rip it higher.
yes it is typical day after OPX is very bearish. 🙂
Do you see the whole day down, or have you changed your mind, and see a possible move up to 1092 today? That fake print of 112.41 isn't likely to play out today. But on our way back up, we should look for it. I saved a copy too.
Thank you very much Diablos. Can't thank you enough. The question is when?! Maybe today, tomorrow, next week?
I saw that too Diablos… good catch.
I don't think it plays out today though.
Good Morning everyone.
We hit 1077 ES in the pre-market this morning (twice), so we should at least get back to that point today. Since the 15 minute chart is pretty overbought, and looking to roll over, I'd say that we should move down first, in the morning… and then back up in the afternoon.
This all assume we are going to tag the lower trendline of the rising channel (around 1075-1080 spx), and go back up and make in a C wave, to finish the right shoulder. But again, should that trendline of support break, then I expect a retest of 1040.
10 year T bills breaking out to a new 52 week low this morning.
Yes, indeedy, today will be a wild ride.
isn't it unusual for treasuries and equities to be down at the same time?
Do you see the whole day down, or have you changed your mind, and see a possible move up to 1092 today? That fake print of 112.41 isn't likely to play out today. But on our way back up, we should look for it. I saved a copy too.
Damn! The volume on the ES is through the roof! Do you guys see that?
We just broke to pre-market lows. Yippee!
Don't get too excited yet. This thing is definitely being controlled.
Yes just went long low of day for scalp 🙂
k – thanks.
always 🙂
Dow Jones Trading well below the 50 Hour Sma.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Looks like we may have bottomed for awhile, and should go back up for several hours to allow the 15 minute chart to reset from oversold to overbought.
That means we could sell off into the close, if they plan on taking out the 1075-1080 lower trendline support on the rising channel. If not, then we could continue to climb back up in that C wave that everyone is looking for? Hard to say which at this point?
I sold spxu typ vxx into theis expecting a bounce.
All oscillators are still bullish. Got feeling next week is a bull week.
That I agree with you on Jim. But it all depends on where we close tomorrow. We need to close above 1080 to remain bullish into next week. A close of 1079 or below will cause more selling I believe.
I agree.
Figured I would take some nice profits here because I have a wedding party in town and cannot pay as close attention tomorrow.
S&P 500 Trending down below the 50 Hour SMA.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
I believe we can go down hard now. I hope anyway
Lots of support 1072.50 if we break that then the bears are having Nova Salmon
or kobe beef!
heheheh 😉
Do you mean on the ES or SPX?
I don't know Monica? It seems so well controlled right now. Still no panic? Now we are going into the lunch time low volume period. I wonder what they are going to do… rally up a lot, or just a little, and then sell off into the close? Tough call…
It's always controlled red.
I'm not covering.
LOL… yes it is! But you knew what I meant. I just don't see any panic moves yet. But I'm sure they will come.
When they come, that is the time to get long!
I see abounce coming. Moved into some TNA and sso just in case
BEEEEEEEPEEEEEEEEEEE is toast and will be sacrificed
Your chat isn't one… bummer?
on it's not i will turn it on
Beee peeenut butter is the way to spread your toast 🙂
Gang listen we broke 1072, so we could have more down side here
1072.18 is the 61.8% fib pullback frm the 1036.75 low to recent high of 1129.5 on the ES. I would expect some sort of bounce here. Not sure how much, but I would expect a pullback to atleast 1083-1084 or 1092-1093 on the ES.
S&P 500 Hour channel with 50 and 20 Hour SMA
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Well, I guess we are now getting our “light volume” ramp job. Let's see how far she goes up, before rolling back down?
1085 should be resistance. If we bust through, we're out of the “bear channel”.
Yeah, we are a falling channel now, and we should bust out at some point… but when? We keep making bear flags, and falling lower. (Not that I'm complaining, as I'm short).
They keep tanking the dollar, but the amount they have to tank it, to squeeze out a small rally, isn't equal to the move down the market makes when the dollar goes up. That tells me the market is still weak right now.
I'd say more like 1089-1090. That was support before, it will be resistance now and also happens to be the top of the hourly channel on the SPX.
Yesterday's low of 1085.31 needs to be retaken first.
Have a look at the bear porn here:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
There's nothing like bear porn to get me excited. Thanks Dread!
Vix above 6% so iam a little nervous about my long play. profit at moment but selling momentum is sustaining.
I'd go long at the close if the VIX can't close above 30. It's been flirting with 30 this morning, but hasn't pierced it. Close above 30, and it might bring in more Vix and Put buyers before volitility shoots up even more.
Look at the last 4 hourly candles on the ES. Just plain Ugly. Bulls getting smacked in the face with a bear claw everytime they attempt to retake the hourly 10 SMA. Sadly, my stop on SDS was hit when we went up to 1078.
Ford Motor co Triangle breaks out in hourly chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
We have low volume right now, but the market can't seem to catch a bid? Not very bullish, in my opinion. Once volume picks up into the close, what's the likelihood it will be buying volume versus selling volume?
Uh Oh… I see a 1087.75 print on the 5 minute chart of the ES, at 12:50 pm. Do any of you see it?
If the yellow line closes below 0 on the 60 and sticks, I am ruling out the chartpattern traders call of an H&S on the QQQQ.
http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders…
Speaking of the CPT, how much $ does it cost to run a site. He is always soliciting for $ and I have sent in what I can as I follow him but I am beginning to be skeptical. Can you give me an idea?
He probably has too play for the video hosting with Veoh or something? Youtube is free up to 10 minutes… after that I don't know, but I'd assume you have too pay for it.
As for the hosting fee for a website, it's not too much. Even with a lot of traffic, it might only be $20.00 per month. But, it's the time that is costly. He probably subscribes to a lot of different services to provide the info he has?
Sometimes I can spend all day on a weekend post… especially when you do video's, and have to upload them and stuff. Time is the big factor, and he is quite good with his forecasts. Of course no one is always right, and he stated on yesterdays' video that if we break outside the 1075-1080 upward channel, then the C wave could be dead.
My feeling is why does he pander so hard??? if he's so good, why not do it for charity as my part does for the animals?
I don't know Anna? Good question though. I just put up the fake print below.
RU talking to my post on the CPT?
Thanks Red! He has over 20,000 viewers and uses freeware for the video. Time surely costs $$$$. But he has a couple of advertisers as well. Starting to think it is a profit center for him. Maybe I am getting jaded 🙂
Trust me… it ain't a profit center. I took down my ad's because no one was clicking on them. I don't make a dime for this site.
I was not implying that you do! But you also do not continually solicit for funds at the end of every month.
Hey all! Can you print screen and post that print Red? Thanks
I think we are about to break on up to your fake print but I'm staying short nonetheless. VIX isn't going down commensurate with the move up and to repurchase puts will be more expensive.
Dow Jones S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hourly chart comparison
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Ok, here's the print I still see…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
thx Red
That's a doable print. I am patiently waiting for the SP to get close to the 50 period average on 60min chart and 15min chart before I enter more leveraged positions.
red, i don't think that print is legit.
Why not Monica?
volume but I could be wrong.
I don't know when the print will play out, or if it will play out? But intraday prints usually play out the day the show up, or the next day. When volume returns to the market, (around 3pm), will they be buying or selling?
Someone dumped a few hundred thousand shares of TZA and it went down near LOD even though resistance is holding – weird.
Thanks.
That sounds like that person is now bullish on the market. Large volume player usually now something, but sometimes they don't. We'll see when 3pm comes around I guess.
Some e-wavers have 5 waves down if the markets put in a new low today so ther could be a decent bounce back to the 50 period average on the 60 min. Not saying it's going to happen but it's a possibility.
Actually it does look like 5 waves down on the 60min chart.
Housing stocks are being pumped like crazy. Absolutely no volume on the move up.
RUT is back to even on the day. Simply amazing.
During bear markets, RUT performs worse than SPX, but during bulls is much better. I was surprised to see the effect of a few points on TZA volatility today.
Amazing pump
They just took out all the stops. Think we are going back down.
Huge volume spike. Made .5 back already. As someone else said here, stops dont work except for the MM's!
OK, 1085 broke but isn't resistance at 1090? ROFL Hmmm, 2:00 again, must be time to troll for stops.
We have negative divergence on STO for SPX.
The 15 minute chart is pretty overbought right now. And we are now hitting a falling trendline of resistance.
S&P 500 Triangle developing in 5 minutes chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Did any of you folks see that as of the close AAPL made up 80% of the NAZ! If they play games with AAPL the NAZ is coming down hard!
TYPO; 20%!!!!
YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE TARGET.
Thanks!
Is there an news out tomorrow that can move the market… up or down?
Updated and revised GDP for Q1
Red, the market moves the news.
True Monica… I was just trying to figure out what news (and when announced) would be the blame for the sell off (or rally?).
hurricane in the carribean moving closer to the rig.
Most Banks look like short sells, ( falling knives) The Slow sto is turning into a downtrend..Some banks are at the lower bb band…the battle is on, between the slo sto and the lower bb band.
Finally – LET THE PARTY BEGIN!
Roaring ROFL hahahhahah
STT, ( bank) 35.12, new 5 month low, falling knife, wait for the first up day and then go long the next red day.
Mr. TopStep…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhoOD4mHwFg
We need to see this triple bottom break today!
I think it already broke on the SP. Forget about any rallies the rest of the day to 50 period average. 50 period average on the 15 minutes was about as far as it goes.
Dow jones triangle breaks down
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
What's the downside target on the triangle breakdown?
around 10050. But it should find some support before getting there
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
I'm lovin this!
It's about friggin time!
Nice day indeed. I was really expecting today to be the start of the hard downturn to extend into next week/end of month. If it hadn't happened it would have been really disappointing. Added some additional shorts at the close yesterday in anticipation. Hope this signals the beginnng of the break to the 900's we've all been waiting for.
ah oh – did i jinx myself?
jaywizz has been pretty good lately
What's he calling for tomorrow Ben?
I'm still short – I hope I am not kicking myself tomorrow.
We have been down a lot of days in a row now Monica… I'm getting a little worried about a huge up day short squeeze coming. I would like to now how this looks for opens vs. closes on the 195 minute chart right now.
http://screencast.com/t/YjcwNjFkOTc
On the 60's.
http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders…
On the daily.
My thought is that we test the flash crash lows on the QQQQ's.
We did on the other Index's, now tech should follow.
nothin yet. last sun power index )whatever its called. sees a steep down day friday but rrman who read helge see some upside.
jawizz may not post till tomorrow am
u mich consumer confi. out at 9:55 am est. this has been holding up i think. maybe tomorrow it will show slowdown in confidence????
S&P 500 Triangle Break updated
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
keep you eyes on Lower BB at a potential stopping point for a least a bounce now at 1044 es june
Post close ramp job is starting. I have a feeling we will atleast open with a Gap UP tomorrow.
I don't know what to think about tomorrow? We've been down a lot of days in a row now, and a short squeeze should be coming anytime now… which makes me nervous about tomorrow.
But on the other hand, everyone is now expecting this wave C up to start tomorrow, as we tagged the lower support trendline of the upward sloping channel today.
So, do we go on up to 1150 from here, or head south and take out the 1040 low? What is everyone else expecting now? Let's do the opposite.
Don't be so sure. Rimm is getting hit hard.
Of course Anna's gang is short. 🙂
So what's the overall thoughts on tomorrow NewBear?
hoping for a move up to short more. BTW rational captured a casper to 100.73 on spy
I have one too… from a week or so ago. When did he get his?
today
Here's the one I got on June 4th… post his link if you can.
Duh, here's the link…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
I'll be covering there tomorrow (hopefully) 🙂
Red, check out the vix on TOS 349.42, another fake print or what?
Screen capture it, before it disappears.