Bears Get Tricked Again…
Man! I almost had that fish…
PLEASE DON’T FORGET TO VOTE ON THE NEW POLL DOWN THE PAGE IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY…
Down we go in the morning to fill the gap, then rally back to close positive. The bears that went short at the low today just got squeezed hard as the market rallied back into to close. While we came just a hair shy of the FP of 110.67 spy, I believe we will hit it tomorrow… probably on a gap open. Then possibly sell off a little the rest of the day, closing tomorrow slightly negative.
I think tomorrow will close below 110 spy, and above 109 spy (probably closer to 109). Basically, I’m looking for a “gap up and crap” day tomorrow. They need out of this falling channel, and Friday is the perfect day to gap up above the channel resistance trendline.
Once outside of it, they can fall back down and retest the trendline (at a lower point as the day goes on), which will allow them to close below 110 and still stay outside the channel. That will allow for next Monday or Tuesday to go up too.
While I think next week could end up DOWN, I do expect them to at least rally up a little further before this rally takes a nice correction. The move down today could have been the “B” wave down, in an ABC move up? That means we should go up to the 112.41 FP next week to complete the “C” wave.
I’m just guessing at the Elliottwave counts, because I don’t really know it too well… but it seems logical. I know the “C” wave is supposed too be longer then the “A” wave, and a move to 112.41 wouldn’t be very much further. Meaning, if it quit there, and turned back down for a nice down leg, that “C” wave wouldn’t be as long as the “A” wave, but again… I’m not an expert in EW stuff.
But back tomorrow, I’m expecting a slightly down day, around the 109 spy for the close.
Red
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Weekend Update – Market Manipulation To Extreme!
about 2 days ago - View Comments
Wednesday update… No More Taking The Stairs UP! (I made a mistake thinking today was Memorial Day in the video. Duh… it’s Labor Day! Sorry). Last week is a clear example of how well controlled and manipulated this market really is. A normal market will take the stairs up (meaning it slowly makes gains every More >
Weekend Update – US To Default On Debt
about 1 week ago - View Comments
Tuesday Update… Red _______________________________________________________________________ Monday Update… it’s not looking good for the bulls! Red _______________________________________________________________________ Before I go over the stock market I’d like to take some time and go over the picture behind the scenes… Upon reading Benjamin Fulford’s latest report, it appears that the Amero dollar is still being pushed forward, and really More >
Rally Time?
about 2 weeks ago - View Comments
Video Update for Friday… Red ————————————————————————————————- or just a relief bounce… After selling off for 4 days straight, the market needed a breather, and that’s exactly what we got today. As for tomorrow, as long as the initial claims and continuing claims numbers meet or beat expectations, the market should go a little higher. I’m More >
Weekend Update – The Wave 3′s Are Coming!
about 2 weeks ago - View Comments
Tuesday Update… Sorry gang, I had a busy afternoon. Just a video update again, as I’m to tired to write up a new post. Plus, not much has changed, except we are one more day closer to the coming crash. Red ————————————————————————————- Monday Update… We hit our target area of 1080 in the morning reversed More >
The Bears Win Today!
about 2 weeks ago - View Comments
Just a simple video update for Friday. I’ll have more on my weekend report by Sunday night. Enjoy the weekend everyone…. Red ——————————————————————————————- But don’t count the bulls out yet… Well gang, I’m bummed out. I missed the call yesterday, as I really expected it to pop up to 111.17 first… and then sell off. More >
Almost There…
about 3 weeks ago - View Comments
Video Update for Thursday… I think the top is just about in now gang. I see one more pop higher tomorrow… to the 111.17 FP level, and then the selling to begin. I don’t have any idea if it’s going to be a really big move down or if that will be next week on More >
Weekend Update…
about 3 weeks ago - View Comments
Monday Update… Not much to add, but I thought I’d just share a few feelings mainly. The charts could go either way at this point. Be careful in both directions… —————————————————————————————————————— So what’s next you ask? This coming week should be a tricky week as they will likely rally up to squeeze the bears at More >
Time For A Bear Nap…
about 3 weeks ago - View Comments
But next week should make the Bears’ Day! Ok gang, it looks like we came close enough to the 107.35 SPY FP from last week to fulfill it. We hit 107.59 on the opening gap down and rallied hard from that level. This tells me that the short term bottom is in, and we should More >
A Very Bearlishess Day!
about 4 weeks ago - View Comments
The bears got feed well today, but will it continue? And the answer is… “YES”, it will continue! Yippee! It’s great to be a bear right now, so I hope everyone was already positioned well for today’s sell off. For tomorrow I expect a “pause” day, even ending slightly up… but not much. After such More >
One More Day UP…
about 4 weeks ago - View Comments
Is all I see… Gang, I think tomorrow will go up and hit the 113.02 spy FP that Anna caught at 8-9am Tuesday morning. I see the same print in the afterhours session again. This confirms to me that we are going to hit that target tomorrow sometime. After that, I think we will sell More >
Comments are closed.
about 1 month ago
I bought the DIP.
Long, IWM at the 50% retracement.
Using a 0.65% stop, because there might be a BlackMonday.
about 1 month ago
You are too good at calling them Anna! LOL… Congratulations!
about 1 month ago
Yeah Z….
Be careful on the long side, as that 106.66 spy close is sending us a message… and it's not to buy!
about 1 month ago
On the NASDAQ quotes, two big SPY spikes, 1 and 2 million shares at 109.78!
about 1 month ago
Something is fishy there… that's for sure! I can't see it rallying back up there on Monday, but stranger things have happened.
about 1 month ago
Based on looking at the pre-market high prints, I'd say that it's not a FP, but instead just a late fill. Big institutions probably.
about 1 month ago
LONG RTH
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/r...
about 1 month ago
That chart still looks bearish too me Z… Maybe it will bounce at the 50% Fib. level, or maybe it will continue falling? All the indicators on that charts are rolling over and pointing down. You got more guts then I do… Good Luck.
about 1 month ago
you shouldn't be buying any stock here, we are bear market. You should be selling the rips or buying shorts on rips. The weekly has a huge topping tail and indicators are rolling over. Beware.
about 1 month ago
That's what happens when you buy on market orders after hours..
A few million here, a few million there, what the hey. Probably GS closed the deals for them, and charged a fee on top of it!
about 1 month ago
In Wyoming we call bulls that lost their gonads steers.
about 1 month ago
LOL… I bet it's beautiful up there in Wyoming. I'd love to travel to the states that have some much nature in them. Florida is great, but the lack of seasons to enjoy is something I miss sometimes (I'm from West Virginia, but have been in Jacksonville since 1989).
about 1 month ago
yep late fill
about 1 month ago
I went long today. Why?
SPY corrected about 40% price-wise, but 37.5% time-wise. That's really close to a fib. 38.2% retrace.
IYR corrected about 50% price-wise and time-wise.
IWM corrected 61.4%, very close to another fib. level.
I think we just saw a wave 2 correction of a wave one off the $SPX low near 1010. The fib. levels really look compelling here.
about 1 month ago
i agree, these are normal fib retracements of the larger move to 1100. i wish leo would explain the significance of 106.66.
about 1 month ago
Red , around 4/16 the govt went after GS and the market topped about a week later. Now that they kissed and made up , do you feel they turn the printing press back on and run the market like they did prior to investigation.Great blog , I remember when you started and only had a few comments a week. CONGRATS.
about 1 month ago
Thanks for the compliment. I'll do a video on my weekend post, but I see more selling coming. This week closing out negative with a topping tail on the weekly chart is very bearish.
If we would have close up this week, (at least above 1090), then I would be leaning more toward a small down move next week, to form a “B” wave down, and then another “C” wave up on the weekly chart.
Now, I'm looking for the 1010 low to be tested again, and most likely broken. They had their chance to close positive this week, but failed.
Those earnings reports could have been faked, so the rally could continue… but I guess they were too bad in reality. If they would have lied better on the reports, then the market could have gapped up out of this falling channel it's been in since the April high.
Failure to get outside of it today is very bearish. They had everything going for them. It's a Friday, with usually has light volume as traders leave early for the weekend. It was opx day, which also “usually” has light volume, as most traders close out their positions by Wednesday of opx week.
While we should expect some bounce back up on Monday, overall I feel the rally up seem finished at this point. I think another leg down is coming next week.
about 1 month ago
If you remember back in March of 2009, the SPX closed at 666… why? Because certain numbers are used by “them” to tell their buddies when big turns are coming the market.
In that case, it marked a bottom. The market rose for the next year from that level. Sometimes they are short term bottoms, and sometimes longer term. They could be tops too…
They are simply turning points… it's up to you to tell which direction it's going next. Since yesterday put in the high on this 2 week move up, I believe the closing price is saying that “the high is in”, and today started the next leg down.
Why 666? … it's the mark of the beast of course. Other number's would be 911 (the number you call for an emergency) and 212… which is the boiling point of water.
In other words, today's close of 106.66 spy tells me that… “the shit's about to hit the fan”… and that's about as simple as I can explain it. Hope that helps…
about 1 month ago
DOW JONES analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010...
about 1 month ago
That not a pretty chart… if you're a bull.
about 1 month ago
Yes the bulls should take a break now, like how the bears did last week.
about 1 month ago
i feel like yesterday's big spike EOD was used to flush out a lot of bears so they could bring it down today. and i think a lot of bears were caught on the sidelines and had to just watch this tape today wishing they were in. so i think we have a situation where these bears are waiting for the next bounce to get in. which seems too easy. so my thought is that if this really is on it's way down, we won't see much breather/bounce for a while. if we do, it could be a bear trap. would love to hear your thoughts on my logic? thanks.
about 1 month ago
Your thinking is correct. The bounce will be small, as to keep the bulls trapped, and not allow the bears a good spot to get short. This all assumes the next leg down has started… which I believe it has.
Yesterday was a perfect example of how they squeeze the bears out, just before they tank it. Then they gap it down the next day (today) and make them chase the tape, or wait for a bounce that never comes.
Of course meanwhile, the bulls are trapped and also waiting the bounce that never comes too… only they want the hell out their position, while the bears want it.
If this is the next leg down… bounces will be very small.
about 1 month ago
Yee of little faith. I'm still holding my shorts from yesterday. Huge gains… moved the stops lower. Tis insurance / hedge.
about 1 month ago
WEEKEND POST is up now everyone…