Bears Get Tricked Again…

By Red, on July 15th, 2010

Man! I almost had that fish…

PLEASE DON’T FORGET TO VOTE ON THE NEW POLL DOWN THE PAGE IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY…

Down we go in the morning to fill the gap, then rally back to close positive. The bears that went short at the low today just got squeezed hard as the market rallied back into to close. While we came just a hair shy of the FP of 110.67 spy, I believe we will hit it tomorrow… probably on a gap open. Then possibly sell off a little the rest of the day, closing tomorrow slightly negative.

I think tomorrow will close below 110 spy, and above 109 spy (probably closer to 109). Basically, I’m looking for a “gap up and crap” day tomorrow. They need out of this falling channel, and Friday is the perfect day to gap up above the channel resistance trendline.

Once outside of it, they can fall back down and retest the trendline (at a lower point as the day goes on), which will allow them to close below 110 and still stay outside the channel. That will allow for next Monday or Tuesday to go up too.

While I think next week could end up DOWN, I do expect them to at least rally up a little further before this rally takes a nice correction. The move down today could have been the “B” wave down, in an ABC move up? That means we should go up to the 112.41 FP next week to complete the “C” wave.

I’m just guessing at the Elliottwave counts, because I don’t really know it too well… but it seems logical. I know the “C” wave is supposed too be longer then the “A” wave, and a move to 112.41 wouldn’t be very much further. Meaning, if it quit there, and turned back down for a nice down leg, that “C” wave wouldn’t be as long as the “A” wave, but again… I’m not an expert in EW stuff.

But back tomorrow, I’m expecting a slightly down day, around the 109 spy for the close.

Red

Weekend Update...

Sjack123456

GS settles, the well is capped; and the bulls charge ahead as if it's xmas. Not much of a charge, and the news could not of been timed better.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It always staged and planned… you should know that by now.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

It really seemed like the goal was to get everyone out of their short positions.

Still though, look at what happened to JPM after it reported earnings this morning. We have BAC and C reporting tomorrow, and I expect similar sell offs in financials (except GS, which manipulated their stock to perfection today).

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, I think they will gap up on the report and then sell off the rest of the day. Next week is unknown right now, but I think it will be a DOWN week as a whole.

newbear

Anything to screw the bears basically.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, bears get screwed a lot my friend. I think many will go short over the weekend, only to see the usual Bullish Monday to squeeze them out again… and then a sell off can happen. LOL

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

The Euro bounced down off my unorthodox Fib 61, see charts on Hawaii Trading

My prediction of “Dine in Hell” from Wednesday night, came true. note the “Devil Pattern” which is essentially the same as Trader Steve pointed out twice, this same week.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/07/dine-in-hell-or-get-pounded-by.html

ES appears to have mostly decoupled from the Euro, and the bond and US FX markets are just acting kind of weird. Flight to safety or flight to inflationary monetary practices?

When the old school practices of safe haven are tried, and a Gila Monster is lurking therein — perhaps then the real panic starts.

ES did a nice backtest on the 100% channel of the PRS 133. Unfortunately unless you were trading late Thursday, uh, I was doing drywall….ouch. But was 50% in on a short futures, so that was nice.

This is expiry, so Monday and Tuesday next week can definitely see some big moves. I will remain 50% short.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's rare to see them tank it on opx, so this shows how weak the market really is.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

DOW JONES Futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
jimhobson

They are going to wack the shorts again today

market will be down all down until last hour

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, it's go back up some in the last hour.

jimhobson

Look at the macd on open. is that a mistake??
Sir Woody Hackswell

JPM recommended buying C $4 calls earlier this week. Wanna bet that C closes at $3.99 today? I'm guessing JPM had too many C $4 calls and wanted to unload them.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Where was that print on Citigroup at again Woody? You might see soon.

Sir Woody Hackswell

The C F@kePr1nt was on Jun 29 when C was around FRN$3.80. It was for FRN$3.317. Matched up in both Google and Scottrade.

As I said before, I doubt “they” will let C close below FRN$4.01 today to offset JPM's suggestion people buy C FRN$4 calls this week. Then bottoms away next week?

And don't forget… among ALL of this.. the govt is STILL unloading C shares for as much as they can… probably for the rest of the year.

jimhobson

Adding today will not be an easy choice.

Do we average up or wait till eod to see if they run it??
The vixes do not showserious selling as they are below the 6% positive level that would normally support this down open. So i think red is right and we get other oportunities after 3PM.

But I may get stupid and add a little.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Jim,

How's the vix's looking? Do you see it supporting is down move?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Isn't that funny how yesterday only went down to 108.17 and didn't actually fill the gap at 108.03… and now we did.

Al

yes, Red…i was fully loaded with short yesterday…. espeicallly GS and BP got me so worried. Bears finally got the fish…yeah!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'm surprised they didn't gap it up out of the channel first, before selling off. But, I guess they were too weak to do it. I'm leaning more toward closing around 108 now.

Al

yup..that surprised me too. but the down trend line from spx high at 1217 to 1090 and MA50 still consider strong resistance for spx. yes..i agree with you and more down nextweek.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, it's looking more and more like they will pin this between 1080-1090, as it's almost lunch time now, and they've been unsuccessful in breaking down below 1070 so far.

While there is still time to do so, and we are forming a bear flag, I'd be shocked if it closes below 107 spy, as there are a ton of puts at that strike price that they would have to pay out on.

We are rolling over now, and technically “should” sell off the rest of the day… at least from looking at the charts. But today being opx day, some how I think they will keep it from breaking down.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

DOW JONES FUTURES CHART
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If this close down for the week, it will change the whole ballgame… as far as I've be speaking about the weekly chart, and a possible ABC move up over the next 4-6 weeks.

A down week, with a topping tail, means we are going lower again… as in taking out the 1010 bottom. Not sure yet, as we haven't closed out this week… but today's close will tell the likely future direction for the next month or so.
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

anyone having fun yet!!!!!!!!!!! wheeeeeeeee freaking deeeeeeeeeeee

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Hey girl… how you doing today? Making lot's of mula I hope

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

I am short Google and spys and jpm and MA and oh yeah!
oh yeah and apple
thanks and so are ALL the HOBstas!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Good for you girl…

I figured it would be a down day, but I'm a little surprise on how much it went down.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

thanks if I get my google 460 I will be the happiest gal
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'm rooting for you… I hope you get them.
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

me too that would be a 1 day trade that could net over 800%

Sir Woody Hackswell

With all the blood in the streets, my Dec/Jan puts have hardly moved. =snif=

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

oh no that's because there is too much time there Woody what I do on straight options is never go out more than 45-60 days or else they usually don't work out well

however that say I wish you great success!

Sir Woody Hackswell

I'm not nimble enough for day/week trading. I do have another job, so I cannot watch the markets all day.

My puts are on long term trends. Banks are going down. Housing is going down.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

added GS short you pOS

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That should make every America feel good… I mean making money while Goldman suffers… LOL

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Don't kid yourself they make that fine in 10 days, they are NOT suffering at all

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, I know… but some fine is better then nothing. I think criminal charges should be brought on them, as they are all crooks.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Tiger woods paid off more money to Elan in the divorce!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We just hit double bottom support…. I wonder if it holds today or not?
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

closed up some longs on last bounce now on to the SALMON!
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Crashing feeling in my gutometer here

Sir Woody Hackswell

As long as it's a feeling in your gut that the market is crashing… Not that the crashing feeling is: oh, crap, the market turned against me!

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

It is I said bounce on Apple news (I shorted Apple @ 254 and change) via puts and then the tape would roll over!!!

goog luck woody!!!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Could be Anna? Wouldn't that surprise everyone?

Geccko23

It'll be interesting to see if this decline can accelerate into a flash crash into the close. It looks like the setup from May 6. A steady decline and then kaboom. Anyway today's candle should take out at least 3 of those white candles from the last week.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Please please please!!!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's looking more and more likely right now… GO Bears!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Monica called me a little while ago gang… she said something about an earthquake in Maryland, close to Washington D.C.

Did anyone else hear about that?

Sjack123456

no reports of damage or injuries

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Bummer, I was hoping it was a selective earthquake and only targeted crook politicians… LOL

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

http://screencast.com/t/OTNhYTBlY

Nothing on here….
jimhobson

Lets hope DC falls into a deep hole.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL… hell yeah! Take all those crooks straight down to hell, where they all belong.

Sir Woody Hackswell

Small earthquake of 3.6. I'm surprised people even felt it!

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

that's a tickle NOTHING ;-D

Sir Woody Hackswell

exaclty! In NE Ohio, we had a 5.0 in 1986. THAT we felt… but still hardly any damage. Still a small one!

Rip Van Trader

I was working in Mentor at the time. Very weird!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Did you feel the earthquake Rip?
Sir Woody Hackswell

I went to elementary school in Madison. 4th grade.
Rip Van Trader

Ah, I'm a different gen, then. My grade school memories are A bomb drills and JFK assassination (6th grade).

jimhobson

I guess this is what Ron calls moving average alignment.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

You mean Ron Walker (the chart pattern trader) I'm assuming… and yes, the moving average are realigning back down on the 15 minute chart, but not the 60 or daily yet.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

jimhobson

yep

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Google might be @ 460 my call from yesterday

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

This market is ready to fall off a cliff and crash now. When the bewitching hour of 3pm comes… it's going to be interesting.

(Check your google chat)

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

yep ok
jimhobson

Iam afraid to add at thsi point.
managed a little this am but only about 45% invested.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, when your down this much, it's tough to go short. You might be better off to wait until Monday to see what happens. Even as far down as it is, we should still have some type of bounce on Monday.

The 60 minute chart is pretty oversold now, and should come back up on Monday, giving bears another chance to get short. Don't know how much of course, but they have to shake out the bears that are going short into the weekend.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Bought the google butterfly for .90 just sold for 8.80 per contract

Sir Woody Hackswell

What's a butterfly?

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

it a spread you buy 1 strike sell 2 middle and buy 1 protection looks like ___/___ a butterfly

Sir Woody Hackswell

Congrats! Almost a 10 bagger!

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Feels so good thank you

Geccko23

This is about where the Neelyites took a little bite long on May 6.
Sjack123456

no idea how this will close, but it is possible it will drop hard…spx down 50-60, so to play a lottery ticket i bought 110 115 puts on amzn. cost $220, but could be fun; if not i will try and get 110 back around 3:45
Geccko23

I added more positions this morning but wanted to do it at yesterday's close but became fearful and mesmerized by that last hour push. Jaywiz was right about the close but not about an early morning bounce this morning. But he's been more accurate than anyone the past few months so I can't diss him.
Anthony Allyn has been spot on the last few weeks I have been following him although I think he's calling for a bounce into the close (which could materialize). He had another funny annotation to his charts earlier: Steve Jobs press conference bullish LOL! >>>>with an arrow directed to the chart when Jobs spoke.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, while I thought we would close at 108 or 109, that might not happen now. But, I still think that we will close above 107 spy, as there is a whole lot of open interest at that level on the put side… that they don't want to pay out on of course.

Sir Woody Hackswell

That's too rational… CRAZY TALK!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL… sorry, I didn't mean to use logic.

jimhobson

I thought at 3pm they would try to save the day.

Still maybe in last 15 minutes.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah… that's a surprise. Market is really weak now.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Truly amazing! I expected some selling, but not this…

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

howling ouaawuhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Bears are dancing in the street now! Go Bears!

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

yes we are
but I am howling for Google

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like they are trying to save 107 spy…. LOL
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

HOLY COW! I just seen a FP of 109.79 spy on my 5 minute chart just now!
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Looks like my call of GOOGLE 460 WILL PAY OFF HUGE!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Does anyone else see this?

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

red on what time?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's gone now, but that was the 5 minute time frame. But, I still see it on the 2 hour time frame. Here's that one…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

NOPE but see a hell of a bear flag

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Could have been anything… just file it away for later uses.

jimhobson

I do not see that on any of my chart sources.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

My charts are from the Think or Swim software, but my account is with Ameritrade. Maybe it was a honest mistake? (laughing here)

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Here comes 107… LOL
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If we close at 106.66 spy… Black Monday is coming!

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7

I bought the DIP.
Long, IWM at the 50% retracement.
Using a 0.65% stop, because there might be a BlackMonday.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah Z….

Be careful on the long side, as that 106.66 spy close is sending us a message… and it's not to buy!

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I went long today. Why?

SPY corrected about 40% price-wise, but 37.5% time-wise. That's really close to a fib. 38.2% retrace.

IYR corrected about 50% price-wise and time-wise.

IWM corrected 61.4%, very close to another fib. level.

I think we just saw a wave 2 correction of a wave one off the $SPX low near 1010. The fib. levels really look compelling here.

average_minimalist

i agree, these are normal fib retracements of the larger move to 1100. i wish leo would explain the significance of 106.66.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If you remember back in March of 2009, the SPX closed at 666… why? Because certain numbers are used by “them” to tell their buddies when big turns are coming the market.

In that case, it marked a bottom. The market rose for the next year from that level. Sometimes they are short term bottoms, and sometimes longer term. They could be tops too…

They are simply turning points… it's up to you to tell which direction it's going next. Since yesterday put in the high on this 2 week move up, I believe the closing price is saying that “the high is in”, and today started the next leg down.

Why 666? … it's the mark of the beast of course. Other number's would be 911 (the number you call for an emergency) and 212… which is the boiling point of water.

In other words, today's close of 106.66 spy tells me that… “the shit's about to hit the fan”… and that's about as simple as I can explain it. Hope that helps…
average_minimalist

i feel like yesterday's big spike EOD was used to flush out a lot of bears so they could bring it down today. and i think a lot of bears were caught on the sidelines and had to just watch this tape today wishing they were in. so i think we have a situation where these bears are waiting for the next bounce to get in. which seems too easy. so my thought is that if this really is on it's way down, we won't see much breather/bounce for a while. if we do, it could be a bear trap. would love to hear your thoughts on my logic? thanks.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Your thinking is correct. The bounce will be small, as to keep the bulls trapped, and not allow the bears a good spot to get short. This all assumes the next leg down has started… which I believe it has.

Yesterday was a perfect example of how they squeeze the bears out, just before they tank it. Then they gap it down the next day (today) and make them chase the tape, or wait for a bounce that never comes.

Of course meanwhile, the bulls are trapped and also waiting the bounce that never comes too… only they want the hell out their position, while the bears want it.

If this is the next leg down… bounces will be very small.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The bell just rang, and I seen 106.66 on the dot! Look out bulls, your about to be steak dinner next week!

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7

Hi Red,
I may have figured out why the Consumer and Michigan sentiment are out of touch with the market. Both had 15% to 17% historical drops.
If the Local news, would ever stop reporting all the personal economic tragedies, folks with livelihoods at risk in the gulf region, ( 100 straight days of this) of course the sentiment is going to drop off the cliff.
The first BIG BOx Retail store earnings release…Should beat st. by 20%.
Do you see the disconnect?

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall2/folde…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

You are too good at calling them Anna! LOL… Congratulations!

Rip Van Trader

On the NASDAQ quotes, two big SPY spikes, 1 and 2 million shares at 109.78!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Something is fishy there… that's for sure! I can't see it rallying back up there on Monday, but stranger things have happened.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Based on looking at the pre-market high prints, I'd say that it's not a FP, but instead just a late fill. Big institutions probably.

Rip Van Trader

That's what happens when you buy on market orders after hours..

A few million here, a few million there, what the hey. Probably GS closed the deals for them, and charged a fee on top of it!

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

yep late fill

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7

LONG RTH
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/r…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That chart still looks bearish too me Z… Maybe it will bounce at the 50% Fib. level, or maybe it will continue falling? All the indicators on that charts are rolling over and pointing down. You got more guts then I do… Good Luck.
Lee

you shouldn't be buying any stock here, we are bear market. You should be selling the rips or buying shorts on rips. The weekly has a huge topping tail and indicators are rolling over. Beware.

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7

Yee of little faith. I'm still holding my shorts from yesterday. Huge gains… moved the stops lower. Tis insurance / hedge.

jimhobson

In Wyoming we call bulls that lost their gonads steers.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL… I bet it's beautiful up there in Wyoming. I'd love to travel to the states that have some much nature in them. Florida is great, but the lack of seasons to enjoy is something I miss sometimes (I'm from West Virginia, but have been in Jacksonville since 1989).

TYTOBEBAD

Red , around 4/16 the govt went after GS and the market topped about a week later. Now that they kissed and made up , do you feel they turn the printing press back on and run the market like they did prior to investigation.Great blog , I remember when you started and only had a few comments a week. CONGRATS.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks for the compliment. I'll do a video on my weekend post, but I see more selling coming. This week closing out negative with a topping tail on the weekly chart is very bearish.

If we would have close up this week, (at least above 1090), then I would be leaning more toward a small down move next week, to form a “B” wave down, and then another “C” wave up on the weekly chart.

Now, I'm looking for the 1010 low to be tested again, and most likely broken. They had their chance to close positive this week, but failed.

Those earnings reports could have been faked, so the rally could continue… but I guess they were too bad in reality. If they would have lied better on the reports, then the market could have gapped up out of this falling channel it's been in since the April high.

Failure to get outside of it today is very bearish. They had everything going for them. It's a Friday, with usually has light volume as traders leave early for the weekend. It was opx day, which also “usually” has light volume, as most traders close out their positions by Wednesday of opx week.

While we should expect some bounce back up on Monday, overall I feel the rally up seem finished at this point. I think another leg down is coming next week.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

DOW JONES analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That not a pretty chart… if you're a bull.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Yes the bulls should take a break now, like how the bears did last week.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

WEEKEND POST is up now everyone…
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