Wednesday, April 17, 2024

No Recession Anymore…

Update for exciting Thursday...

Red

P.S.  Please answer NEW POLL... Thanks

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The correction is over now...

Yeah right... and I've got some ocean front property for sale in Kansas too!  Once again, the run up into opx week has started off with a bang.  Will it continue until Friday?  Probably not much high, but not much lower either I'm afraid.  This light volume period that we are in now, will allow them to easily gap up over resistance levels by running it up in the pre-market session first just like they did today.

So while there still might be a pullback, I think the 1040 level is off the table now.  Maybe we dip to 1060 for the "B" wave down, but it may not happen until after opx is over.  We could chop sideway until then, and sell off a little bit this week and a little bit more early next week.

However, the big concern is whether or not that week chart continues to roll back up, putting in higher lows on the histogram bars.  That could mean that we aren't going to go down below the 1010 low for awhile.

If so, then we could just sell off next week, and rally the next few weeks after that (and maybe go for the DIA 118.16 print?).  Now I don't know if that's going to happen or not, but the weekly is looking like it wants to roll back up.  So, just keep your eye on that chart, for it would likely put a limit on the downside for now... at least until it turns back down again.

Moving on to tomorrow...

The daily chart is still moving up, but the ADX line is falling now.  It's losing strength... finally!  The negative and positive DI line are converging together now, which means it should be choppy in the market for the next few days.  No major moves up or down should be expected during this criss-cross period.

The 60 minute chart is losing steam too, after putting in a much smaller histogram tower then the previous one.  With the larger amount of open interest on the 107 spy put (289,000), I'd say that we will not go below 107 before this Friday.  And, since the call side has 110,000 contracts at the 110 level, I'd also say we close below that level on Friday too.

Split the difference and you are looking at 108-109 spy level on Friday.  Which really makes more sense if they plan on dropping back a little early next week to maybe 1060 spx... (1040 would be a gift to the bears, and could halt the up move?), before a move up to 112.41 next week.  I'm not ruling out the possibility that we hit 112.41 spy by this Friday, but the odds are decreasing because the daily chart is losing steam.

So, my best guess for tomorrow is a slightly down day (not likely lower then 1080 area) or flat.  But I don't expect too much more on the upside without a "pause" day or slight pullback at this point.

Good Luck to everyone...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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zstock7
13 years ago

Guess who had shorts on BRCM, going into INTC earnings?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Hmmm… let me guess? YOU…

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Not exactly one of my finer moments. I guess BRCM headed to 38 or 39. Triple top short, LOSER. 3% stop out a comin'.
And, it's a rounded bottom, with strength.
All the warning signs are there. Mental Lapse. It happens.

zstock7
13 years ago

My overnight charts show the market went too high too fast, pullback for one day seems likely. JPM reports pre-market Thursday. That could be a down trigger, Or Wednesday the report on June retail sales, at 2 pm Eastern on Wednesday, could be bad. INTC earnings lift, may be short lived.

steveo77
13 years ago

We can dub this the “Jobless and Homeless Recovery”.

Most of these bullish reports on earnings (after guidance was dropped back severely just recently like 33% on Alcoa one week ago) don't even list the earnings.

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

Go figure, INTC more because of gov contracts, so from DELL/HP expected blowouts

steveo77
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

on Dell HP you are thinking they tank because of lack of gov contracts? just sayin' what are you sayin'

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

I meant they will report better sales, but u know its gov contracts not consumers

steveo77
13 years ago

Some headlines are just too funny.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6622I4201

Some more put call charts, on the daily. Esp for company with earnings coming up.

I don't see compelling information in here in particular, just made these charts. Feel free to comment.
Made these using my rarely used Etrade, but liking their trading platform upgrades.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/07/earning

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Finally getting a little pullback I see… It's about time.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Retail, homebuying stink. INTC carried by gov't sales.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

The whole economy stinks Jim, that's something we all agree on. But, the game is controlled and manipulated. So, the rally could likely continue, with only small pull backs along the way.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

that's exactly what I said Stimulus upgraded their systems had to, so it's temporary!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Added typ at low so far. weakness is creating some oprtunity.

DRv has moved nicely this am.kendar@bresnan.net

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Two more days left until opx is over with. I expect them to hold it around this level until then. But next week, I expect a move down for the “B” wave in this ABC move up to probably the 112.41 spy level.

You can now see in this 15 minute chart that it fell outside the rising wedge and is now backtesting the lower support line.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

However, I do think we could go down to that gap fill level of 108.03 before Friday. (Not shown on the chart, put it's the 1080 level).

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Why is that bull market moves are so boring that you just want to take a nap instead of watching the tape move? It's like watching turtles race. Bring back the hare! He's much faster and more fun…

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones trading below 50% fibonacci level
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Reza
Reza
13 years ago

Breaking news = Biden/Romer : stimulus created 3 million jobs

I guess in India, China,etc. I wonder how many in USA

Reza
Reza
13 years ago

Red, you should apply to get your share of 3 mil jobs

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

Great message! Does this guy have a good following?

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 – BROADENING TOP FORMATION
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

anoopsan, Great call on KO short…You picked a great winner.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

I thing the fall has just started. If end in negative territory today the stock will go down till 51.90 levels where the 50 day moving average is at present. A close below this average will trigger a larger correction

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Extremely weak retail environment. That entire sector can't seem to pull muster.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Everything is rolling over here. Jaywiz we probably had a 4 and truncated 5th wave this morning. Cobra had another WOW moment with Nasdaq 100 intraday cumulative tick hitting extreme levels which undoubtedbly carried over this morning. Intel has given up half its gains with a massive black bar.

Anna
13 years ago

FED DOWNGRADES THE U.S ECONOMY

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Are you serious? We just created 3 million jobs somewhere

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

… or saved. Don't forget our national (jobs) savings!

Reza
Reza
13 years ago

They mentioned created not saved

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

Strange… I've always heard “created or saved” together and inseparable… kinda like “shock and awe” or “peanut butter and jelly” 🙂

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

Hey Reza,

I need one of those 3 million jobs… where are they? LOL Just give me the 150k plus that they spent to create the job position instead.

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

well they forgot to mention in US. I guess they meant overseas

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We could go down and fill the gap at the end of today or tomorrow. It's at 108.03 spy (about 1080 spx).

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Quick technical question??
Do you all prefer the fast or slow stochastic???

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Rvix is at 4.85% vix 2.25% positive. This is nothing to get too excited about yet but during the up move the vixes seldom saw those % in inverse.

Tells me nerves are getting itchy.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Besides the vix not supporting the sell off, the volume isn't either. Only 118 million shared traded on the SPY now at 2:30pm est. It won't even come close too 200 million by closing.

Low Volume = Small Sell Off.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

They will run the market on this because its not so bad.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

they'll run this market because they are crooks

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Thieves too…

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

same thing 🙂

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Thought you might like this:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38244083

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Looks like we are going for gap fill today…

Reza
Reza
13 years ago

3 million jobs created, and no more recession declared by Red Dragon
Its adding up

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

LOL… Lies, Lies, and more Lies!

zstock7
13 years ago

NFLX looks determined to reach it's last high. possibly 135, manipulating crooks.

zstock7
13 years ago

Going Long CME, ahead of JPM pre-market earnings, Thursday…More crooks JPM.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

These guys make President Nikon look like a Saint!

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

JPM, they'll go up on earnings… Based on my new method… crookology.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Nixon too. And I remember the whole deal although I was just a lad.

The thief you know is better than the one you don't!

History is and will be kind to him.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

From what I read somewhere about the whole Watergate deal, Nixon was setup. Probably by the Illuminati gangsters, I'd guess. Maybe he was bucking the system and not listening to them anymore?

So, they set him up… and now he goes down in history as a corrupt President. Go figure… it's how the crooks operate I guess.

Any President that bucks the system is either framed, assassinated, or had an attempted assassination. So it's easy to find the good Presidents now… just look for the one's killed.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don't know about that Red. History has been kind to Nixon and not JFK. When I went to school he was a hero. Now, not so much.

You need to read some of those links you post on the Iluminati. I do not think you would agree with the hate those sites propagate. Sometimes you have to get past the initial paragraph or two.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

I'm not implying that all presidents are bad, only that the ones that got assisinated were most likely trying to “do the right thing” and not listen to their advisors that where telling them to do something else.

Of course most of their advisors were probably “bought and paid for”, by TPTB… Illuminati or some other group that secretly ran the world.

I'm sure that there good people inside those bad groups, that are simply trapped now. Obama might be one of them? Who knows? I know he's part of the Illuminati group, as they put him in office. Most all President were “put” in office, and not freely elected. But, maybe he'll turn into a good guy in the end? One can only hope he does.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yep! When I was young they used to call it the Trilateral Commision? Remember that??

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

red YGM.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Got it… and yes, I agree with you… we are going up. (YGM)

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

YGM?? What is that?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

“You Got Mail”

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I do not text either. Guess i am still 20th century

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

LOL (Laughing out Loud)

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Me neither

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

You guys are too funny… Hell, I just recently started texting, so don't feel too bad.

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I know how to text, then recent call on ban on texting while driving, thats why not much into it

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

There are going to close all markets green to avoid the negative in opex week

zstock7
13 years ago

INTC 21.35, looks like a long intraday, I hate to say it!

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

Well the second 1/2 of July is upon us.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I put up a NEW POLL and Video, so please refresh you page (for those that didn't know I put it up).

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red,
I did it! A Video Blog.
http://screenr.com/dQR

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

That cool Z…

I watched it, and it's a different way to forecast then I do. I like seeing a different look, whereas you use P/E's and earnings to forecast… as I used Technical Analysis. Good job.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Re JPM earnings.

When your cost of funds is 0 is it not easy to earn a lot???

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

LOL, yeah I agree with that 100%! Hell, if I had unlimited funds too, I'd never lose in the stock market as I'd could manipulate the price in whichever direction I needed it to go, so I could steal people money (errr… I mean profit from fair trading).

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Here's that FP I talk about in the video from yesterday in the afterhours.

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

The FP is 110.67 spy, and I expect it to be hit today or tomorrow.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

That also happens to correspond with the 78.6 fib retracement (110.62) from the last high to low. We popped above the 61.8% fib at 108.59, so I would expect SPY to make it to 110.62 give or take a few cents and sell-off. I dont like this price action. Seems as though we are just bouncing around and pulling back a little before heading to 110.62. I'm in some TZA, but keeping a tight stop.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Iam having a hard time reading this today. looks like a sell on news day which usually ends up reversing. But

the vixes are green so there is distribution, people selling, but not at a brisk pace at the moment. vixes below 6% positive.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

something just come out?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

The 15 and 60 minute charts are in negative territory on the histogram bars and probably won't start to roll back up until noon or later.

That means a run up into the close and possibly tomorrow morning too. After the 11am time period is gone, the PPT will push it up in the light volume period.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Gap fill on this move down is 108.03 spy, and it looks like we will get it today. Just don't be fooled into shorting yet gang, as that 110.67 spy FP will be filled.

It might be later today, or tomorrow, but we are know how this game is played now.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

RUT Vix just hit 6%.

Selling is accelerating. Not sure what the fire is but its a slow burning this am

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Looks like that's it…

We hit 108.17 as a low, and although the opening gap was 108.03, the actually closing on the previous day was 108.25… which could also be considered as “gap fill” on this move down.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Lots of times I've notice they go down close to gap fill, and bounce back up squeezing out the bears, and getting the retail bulls on thinking the gap is close enough for “gap fill”.

Then, they turn it back down one more time to finally fill the gap to get those retail bulls to bail on there position thinking the rally back failed. So, we still could see the actual gap fill level at 108.03 spy before the afternoon rally.

The time period is also key to watch, as it's not close enough to the 11am-11:30am period, where traders leave for lunch. That suggests there is still enough time to go down to 108.03 but the lunch rally.

anoopsan
13 years ago

DOW JONES- HIDDEN NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE UPDATED CHART
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Since tomorrow is opx, and the largest open interest level on the call side is 110, and the put side 107, I'm still expecting a close somewhere in between those two levels.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

We may never know, the open interest position can change very quickly

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Link is broken. 🙁

anoopsan
13 years ago

Thanx Sir
I have edited it

anoopsan
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

At this rate, the 60 minute chart won't bottom and roll back up until closer to the close today. That could cause tomorrow to be an UP day, as it rises back into positive territory. This assume the daily chart doesn't turn down today… and so far, it doesn't look like it's going too.

anoopsan
13 years ago

BEAR FLAG – Dow jones 10 minutes chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Yep… that's a mini bear flag and a minor bear flag. It will be interesting to see if there is enough selling pressure for them to play out today.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

Wheeeee!!!! Are we having fun on the roller coaster?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

LOL… so much that bear flag!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The 60 minute chart is rolling back up now, from being oversold all day. I suspect that the low is in for today.

zstock7
13 years ago

JPM beat street by 66%. Crooks.

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Z,
what do you think about Fed downgrading the US growth

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

That makes sense, considering the latest consumer confidence report dropped big time. ( crashed retail stocks, temporarily)
GDP numbers seem to be very fluid, month to month.
WMT earnings should be good, then the FED will raise the GDP again.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

But look closely…. record profits… but reserve capital drastically DOWN. They're sitting pretty now… until the next downturn.

zstock7
13 years ago

JPM also has all that WAMU debt. I was surprised when JPM reached 48.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

What did you expect… it's our money they are trading with.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

JPM had to use off world accounting. (Mars maybe)

I suspect they only beat by 16%… when one takes out their fantasy, lotto numbers.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

“Mars Maybe”… LOL

I've not talked about conspiracy stuff in awhile, but just to let you know… our government has a secret space program like on Stargate SG1. We have humans on Mars in a city under a dried lake bed that has 670,000 living beings in it.

Humans, aliens, future humans, etc… all their together. Our government uses an ancient technology that allows them to “jump” to Mars similar to a transporter machine on Star Trek.

You step in some like a elevator and jump to Mars. They call it a “jump room”. We also have real Stargates on this planet and our government has been using them to communicate with aliens and future humans.

The Roswell crash in 1947 was future humans (52,000 years in the future) that came back to warn us about 2012… which we are now going to survive.

Ok, enough about that…

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Are you feeling ok? 😉

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

LOL Woody…

Yes, I'm fine! I used too talk about that kind of stuff more often in the past, but it bored most readers… so I stopped. But, sense Z… mentioned it, I thought I'd just share that little bit of top secret info with you guys.

🙂

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red!
That's some great research. Keep up the good work.
There was a video circulating around in the 70's.
I saw it!
Video from a Mars lander, leaked out of Huntsville, Alabama

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Lot's of stuff out there that most people won't believe… yet it's true.

zstock7
13 years ago

VIX is showing higher high in 2 days, signals on the 15 minute chart. Monday down?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

You gotta give these people credit. They run it down and then run it up at will.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Since the 60 minute chart is rolling up now, it could provide them the strength needed to get to that FP of 110.67 spy tomorrow. Maybe a gap up, to get out of the channel, and over resistances levels?

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Jaywiz: Thought there was no way with today's candle it could close up on the high of the day or gap up to a new high tomorrow…….
As for the SPY fake print, stock charts has the high of the day for SPY at 110.4 or 110.512 which I don't get considering the SP was never positive.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

It hit those levels in the pre-market session, but the market dropped prior to opening. The 8:30am data caused the sell off.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Some of the colorful comments by Well Armed (Anthony Allyn) annotated to his public charts: SPX to lose 50pts in an hour?Maybe…..Waterfall pattern to begin shortly—enjoy the show

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Anthony Allyn called for a 47 point last opx (in June) on a Wednesday. It went up the next day, and he called for a 57 point drop on Friday… opx day!

Of course it went up, as there is NO way in Hell they are going to tank the market and payout all those put holders on the day of option expiration.

Needless to say, I don't see any 50 point drop coming tomorrow.

Kotlasr
Kotlasr
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red, with goog being in deep red n nasty earnings, i can definitely see a 200 point drop tomorrow

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Kotlasr

The futures aren't moving right now, so I don't know if we get 200 points down or not? Maybe? But first they will likely gap up to squeeze out more bears and hit the FP of 110.67 spy.

After that, they should sell off the rest of the day. While I said earlier this week that I expected Friday to have the spy pinned at 108-109, that is still possible.

I just think it will be closer to 109, then 108… but again, I don't see it below 107 or 110, as I stated previously. Of course next week is another story, but tomorrow is opx… and we rarely move a lot on the last day options expire.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Kotlasr

You were right on that call… we got our 200 point down day. Good job on that. I expected it to be down, but not so far. Mainly because it being opx, and you know how controlled and manipulated those days are.

P.S. I'm on the new post now…

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

Are there any big earnings afterhours/premarket? I know BAC is tmorrow morning. Only economic news out tomorrow is Mich Sentiment.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

Google!!

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

Mich Sentiment tomorrow? My retail longs may not fare to well.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Here thet go.
S&P closes green

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Is this unreal or what?

spot_img

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