Friday, June 14, 2024

Weekend Update…

Monday Update for Tuesday...

Red
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish OPX Week?

Most option expiration weeks are bullish, and I expect this one too be so as well (barring another false flag event, or planned default of some country of course).  We are in the light volume season of the summer months now, and the market can easily be control now with a lot less money... aka Free Printed Money given to the PPT.

So, the question is... which way do they want to take the market?  I think they want to take it up for awhile, as the media is still very bearish (at it seems that way to me).  I'm looking for a small pullback early in the week (Monday and possibly Tuesday too), and then a move higher or sideways the rest of the week.

The daily chart supports a move up this week, but how far is anyone's guess?  Many say it will go to the next Fib. Level of 1085 or so, and others say about 1100.  I think we will go to 112.41, either by the end of this week or the next.  I think we are in a larger wave 2 up on the weekly chart now, and that would support a higher move up then just the Fib. Levels.

However, it could take 2-4 weeks to get up there... should it not put in a lower low on the histogram bar for the weekly chart to discredit this analysis.  The monthly is still bearish, which certainly confirms that we are moving down overall.  But, we should have rallies back up within the shorter time frames of course.

I'm not too good a counting elliottwaves, but if the weekly chart did complete a 5 wave down pattern, to form a larger wave 1 down, then we could be in larger wave 2 up now.  If so, then several weeks of grinding higher is going to be needed to shake off the bearishness that is still out there.

We already had one week of a rally, and this week up could be enough to satisfy a larger wave 2 up in that week chart, but it could drag out for a third or fourth week.  I don't think it will, but I do think that the 112.41 spy print will be hit before another serious move down will start.

If that target is hit this week, then I can see another larger move down starting the following week.  So, while I do believe we will close this week out positive, it might only get to either the 1085 Fib. Level, or the 1100 Level by this coming Friday.  That would mean that the following week would be needed to hit the 112.41 spy target (about 1120 spx).

On a shorter time frame, I think we could go down on Monday and early Tuesday, and then up into Friday.  The 1060 area would be a very shallow pullback, but with no selling pressure yet, that could be all we get?  The 1040 level is more likely, and should be the pullback low.  Then up to start the "C" wave up in an ABC move from the 1010 low.

For the bears, I'd wait until that daily chart finishes putting in a lower tower high on the histogram bars before shorting.  It wouldn't surprise me if we only went down to 1060, before ramping up higher into Friday.  There were probably some bears that went short on Friday, because we hit the 50% Fib. Level... which also makes me think they might push up with that last gasp (on the 15 and 60 minute charts) to 1085 Monday morning,and then roll over.

If so, then 1060 area is more likely the downside target, and then a move up into Friday.  If it rolls over at the open or even gaps down, then I believe 1040 is more likely the downside move for the "B" wave.  Personally, I'll feel much better on the short side once that 112.41 print is hit.  For now, the bulls have control.  The only thing next week that can move the market, is earnings... and you know how easy that is too make up.

It's not going to last for long though folks.  All this bullishness will be over soon, and the bears will rejoice again.  But for next week, the bears should take a vacation... as any move down is best left for day traders, not swing traders.

Good luck to all you bulls and bears out there...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

July 19 thru July 23 earnings, Dow 30 doesn't have too much upside. MRK for instance, I'd short that right now. JPM at 39, 41 is probably the short sell price.
CAT,BA,DD, probably do great!

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

Hi Red, one comment showed up here, and the other one dis-appeared.
I think Disqus might be on the fritz.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I see the first one. You now have 2 comments. But yeah, sometimes it throws them in the spam filter and I have to go and undo it.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Probably so. Comments with attachments aren't getting processed, to well. no biggie.

zstock7
13 years ago

Good Video, as usual, Red! I was all set to declare, Dow going to 11,800, before the video.
I better just watch the tape, and play what's in front of me.
I have 2 intriguing double tops. BRCM and FFIV. I think they are shorts.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Anything is possible I guess? But, the monthly and weekly charts are going to have too turn back up, or at least go sideways if the market is going to 11,800… which isn't looking likely right now.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I'll be happy if the Q's can stay in a 41.7 – 45 price channel, for the rest of July. VIX 24's. I don't know what to think about that at this time.

Sjack123456
Sjack123456
13 years ago

I think the high was on Friday-10,200, Earning that are strong will not be rewarded and poor expectations will be the norm. It did not feel like a bottom, it does not look like a top, but it is, close below 1010 this week.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Sjack123456

Could be Jack, but some how I think they take it higher into opx. I've seen it too many times now.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Sorry for the double entry

anoopsan
13 years ago

Microsoft corp daily chart analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

anoopsan
13 years ago

Microsoft corp daily chart analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Interesting video about the sentiment level…

http://beta.chart.ly/bjsy88l

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

W00t!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

What's going on Woody…

Another exciting day today, I see.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

SPX is in a downward direction now. That's enought for at least one W00t!, no?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

W00t, W00t… LOL

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The 60 minute chart has now crossed on the MACD's now, and the histogram bars are ready to go into negative territory. However, I think it will be shallow, as I stated in the video above.

Since we went up to 1080 first, I'm thinking the 1060 area might be as low as we go? I'd like to see 1040 retested, but this light volume makes it hard too fall.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones rally may end at the 200 day moving average
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

This is about as boring as watching a snail race…

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I once watched a blueberry cheesecake race!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

LOL, I'm sure that would be more fun then snails… at least the blueberry cheese cake tastes good enough to eat after the race.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

That's the point of the race. In a restaurant, buy a piece of blueberry cheesecake. Tip on its side and place blueberries at top. Pick your blueberry. First blueberry to the bottom wins (and its owner gets to eat the cheesecake). The last blueberry's owner pays for the cheesecake!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

But there are a few telling signs for an Opex monday.

RVIX is over 6% so there is selling at a brisker pace than the otrher indexes. Vix is very minor negative range in complete contrast to R vix.

So i am wondering which will play catchup??

I got stopped out of all TNA and SSO this am so iam looking at going back short in a small way to set up adds.

this market has no conviction on the buy at the moment.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Agreed Jim… there is no conviction to buy. However, I don't see any conviction to sell either… at least not today. Maybe later in the week, if the earnings are really bad (mainly on the future outlook for each company), but for now it's slow as molasses.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones 5 minutes chart in a triangle
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

The rout is on. Just that the Dow and some averages are masking the action so far. Russell 2000 down 1.24% and NewYork Stock Composite has been weak all day. Solar eclipse yesterday to ignite the downmove. My best trading cycle extended a day to coincide with the solar eclipse top. The last solar eclipse in January propelled a sharp drop through options expiration.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Maybe? But somehow I just don't see another large down move this week. If you watched that video about the bearish sentiment I posted earlier, you'll see that we are at an all time high.

Then you look at the amount of short interest for this month, versus longs, you'll see that the put way out number the calls. So unless they want to pay out on all those puts, I think the downside will be limited.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Wow it's busy in here!

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Saw John Gruden this morning at a local SB in TPA.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

Oh you were in Tampa!! He is a nice guy, got hosed by the owners.

Nice to have you in my neck 🙂

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I live here.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh what neck of the wood? I am in Westchase 🙂

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I am in spitting distance, as we used to say! I workout at the Westchase LF.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

Oh my goodness! You must have seen me then?

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I do not know. You change you picture so often LOL! Are you a morning or evening person?

I am into cardio so thats where I would be. If you remember Christopher Reeves he looks like my twin. Although he was my Dads height and I never made it that high 🙂

I used to get stopped by little kids all the time thinking I was Superman.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

hahhahah yes I do… but they are all me 🙂

on the bikes or treadmills?

I go whenever I can, sometimes late sometimes early 🙂

C Reeves eh OMG!!!!

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Yep. Believe me it got old. People always thought I was his kid brother.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

In my younger days, people used too say I looked like Bill Clinton (especially in the 90's, when he was in office). It got old too. Of course I'm younger then him, so it would be more like his son or younger brother.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

LOL! Yeah, so you can relate. It is fun at first then it grates on you.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

Back in the early 80's, when I just out of high school, I had a buddy that was shorter then me by about 4-5 inches, with dark black hair and a mustache.

I'm 6 foot with blond hair, and back then it was longer in the back. When we went out together, the girls would giggle and smile, as we looked like Daryl Hall and John Oates.

Those were the days…

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yes they were! My Dad used to ask me why I was always the one who came home with the Black Eye. I used to say, well when you are almost 6'4 and 250 people tend to leave you alone.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

oh you had a mullett ewwwhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

LOL… you probably had big hair like Farrah Fawcett too…

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have long hair straight healthy shiney to my back!! 😉
strawberry blonde and if I looked like FF at anytime that would be so awesome!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I'm sure you remember how the girls would hair spray it too death, so it would fluff up. Lot's of girls had it in the 80's… the Madonna style too.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

my hair is so thick no need for hair spray ewwwwwwwwhhhhh!!

never teased or sprayed my hair !! 🙂

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

hehehehe I will look for superman and if I find him will say hello! 🙂

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Sounds good, I will do the same!

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

He is a nice guy. But I think that was a two way deal. He inherited a legacy from Dungy and played his ex team in the Superbowl.

The stars were aligned. He could not hold it together.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

Isn't that the truth I love Tony D he made that team and built it with his bare hands 🙂
He was my favorite, let's hope for a better year this season!

Go Bucs!

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

As I said last week we need to fill the gap on the Naz. Still have not done it.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Well, I keep hearing from the bears how bearish everyone is. That has to be a contrarian signal in itself. There was a market ticker sense poll last week that had 50%bulls and that was last Monday before the market meltup. Breadth is 2 to1 negative almost on a doji day. That really isn't normal.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

I agree with you Geccko. I think there is a lot of bullishness out there too. But, I guess there is many ways to measure the sentiment, so some others might show it bullish now?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Sheesh…. barely a 100 million shares trading on the SPY today. That's really low volume.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Low enough for them to do you know what if it stays that way this wee.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

You mean run it up to 112.41 spy? Yeah, with this kind of volume, they can gap it up over any overhead resistance levels… and then move up to the next level.

I don't see any major news events this week to move the market. The earnings are for companies that don't have much of an effect on the overall market too. So, it's going to take some surprise event cause a big sell off I believe.

Mnytzfan30
Mnytzfan30
13 years ago

Ticker Sense poll now shows 50% bulls 7% bears. It measures blogger sentiment. AAII poll had the scary numbers last week but they are a flighty crew and most must have been polled before the 7-7meltup.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Mnytzfan30

Getting up to date info on that is hard too find. It needs to be done after this run up. So who knows what it really is?

Mnytzfan30
Mnytzfan30
13 years ago

This one for Jaywiz too: A preliminary reading of .68 on 5day Trin. 5day Trin/Arms sell signal.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Mnytzfan30

Last 5day trin sell signal in a down market was Feb 3. The next day the market dropped hard and took out the large white candles prior to Feb3. Feb 3 itself was a small down day.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

I still think there needs too be some news to cause it. I've seen them hold the tape up too many times during opx week, and without a reason too sell, I don't see a big move down yet.

Maybe a small sell off to 1060 or so, and then back up into Friday? Of course the wild card is so country defaulting or another oil disaster… or whatever they want to blame it on?

Maybe next week will give us a big sell off? Who knows? But this week is heavily controlled (all weeks are really, but especially opx), and I still think nothing major will happen until after opx is over.

zstock7
13 years ago

MEE, ( coal mining) It looks to me as if its in one of those price channels again, where it never has 3 down days in a row, for a few weeks.
MEE goes 12% higher, that puts BTU near the 48-50.
BTU has a pattern, I wish I knew the name. I'll make a drawing. Wait one sec.

zstock7
13 years ago

BTU coal company. Extraordinary.
There's 2 patterns at work here.
One is a rounded bottom, bullish, or fails at 44.
The other is a pattern has a name, but I forgot the name = 47-49 high
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/b

zstock7
13 years ago

BTU coal company. Extraordinary.
There's 2 patterns at work here.
One is a rounded bottom, bullish, or fails at 44.
The other is a pattern has a name, but I forgot the name = 47-49 high
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/b

zstock7
13 years ago

filed under miscellaneous
at 1136, SPY p/e is 17.1, the lowest in 7 years. High p/e's, same time frame, are in the 20-22 range. potential 30% upside…
I wonder what the all time low p/e was?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

So much for the dip… looks like we go up more first.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures chart before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Picking up 25% of short positions into this strength on spxu, txa,typ and faz.

S&P hit 1090. I cannot see it moving much further.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

I picked up a few more JPM Dec '10 $35 puts…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

It's getting to the top of the channel now, and should pullback some. How much is anyone's guess?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

Anna
13 years ago

Gang I posted this yesterday on Apple Casper to 246.43

http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall2/folde

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Are they reporting anytime soon? That could be where it's going after they report?

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

hit it today already. 246.43 low for the day on AAPL

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

Thanks… I don't usually follow Apple.

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Jim Cramer AAPL buy buy buy yesterday

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

Figures… what a ass whip he is! LOL

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

what a sweet catch that was 🙂

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

we got there today DOH! that was my point. I caught it yesterday and posted it on HOB and we all made crazy gains 🙂

you must visit hob

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Anything to do with Consumer Reports dinging the iPhone 4?

Anna
13 years ago

Hi Woody I caught the casper before that yesterday that's why it's so great. 🙂 (before consumer report came out)

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Awesome!!!

Anna
13 years ago

thanks!! 🙂

Anna
13 years ago

apple target 205

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Wow. thats a bold move Anna.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Bold is what I do for a girl If I were a guy it would be called something else ROFL hahahhahahha

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Yes, If you were a guy i would call it ballsy.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

hehehhehehehehehhehhe but not so BOLD! 🙂

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Anna, What about buddy Jim Cramer

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

Fade that dumb A$$ 🙂

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

He is laughing all the way to the bank!

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

With a 20% weighting, that will pull down the NAZ big time!

anoopsan
13 years ago
anoopsan
13 years ago

Sorry for the double entry

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

Just a random thought… what if TPTB are whipsawing the markets to eat both bears and bulls (pretty much given, no?). Profiting nicely. But what if the motive is… to drive both into treasuries? Create such uncertainty, volatility, and doubt, that they just flee? And what if the MOTIVE were to drive millions into treasuries… so that TPTB can pop the treasury bubble? Or am I just way too paranoid?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

I sure am sorry i got stopped out of my TNA and sso yesterday. looks to me like the 1112 level is in play.

Only question is the volume. I am not getting a good handle on totals.

Anna
13 years ago

bp casper 34.10

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

“Casper” == ??

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago

I think it is a fake print. Not sure.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Remember I told all you guys weeks ago that the antenna issue would lead to a major stock correction. Not a simple fix. Sometimes it pays to be a geek. LOL

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Will the gap get filled??

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Has anyone got a fix on the volume today??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Volume is still very low Jim. Right now the SPY only has 140 million shares traded. Yesterday was barely over a 100 million too. We need 200 million plus too see some heavy selling I believe.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Looks like AA carries the market for the next few weeks.

The blogs are upbeat saying earnings will trump jobs.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Sure is hard not to load up on shorts in this.

I finished my 25 % a few minutes ago

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

I'd wait until after opx Jim, or until this is hit…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Iam done until averages signal otherwise.

i always get into a small percentage on up days. but i never exceed 25% of intended short positions until then.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Looks like were headed up there fast.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

5 day Trin now at .644. On the charts, everything popped up to 50 day or 200 day averages.

Iamtheggman
Iamtheggman
13 years ago

Intel beats, guides higher for current quarter. Sell the news…. or is there a devil in the details?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheggman

The intel CC was a blow out.

Bears will be in hibernation a while. i did not see this one coming.

Gonna have to look for new entry points on the bull.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

I think a “pause” day or slightly down is coming tomorrow. Regardless of Intel, the market needs another day of rest now I believe.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

I think that's just a late fill from yesterday Reza. The pre-market low this morning was 108.03 on the spy… which matches that afterhours level today too.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

New Post everyone…

zstockmiester
13 years ago

My general anticipation on earnings this week, is neutral for the indexes.
Earnings 7-12 thru 7-16

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