Last Call For The Bears…

79
1962

Is it time for the Bears to go back into hibernation?

Yesterday I called for the 1070.50 spx print to be hit, and it did exactly that today.  But, will my call for a sell off tomorrow be right?  I doubt it, as my luck isn't that good.  I may get a few calls right from time to time, but tomorrow looks quite bullish right now, so calling for a big sell off is probably just wishful dreaming on my part.

The daily chart is pushing the market up hard, from oversold territory.  It's about to cross over the zero level on the histogram bars... quite bullish.  It could easily last until opx next Friday... or longer?  And, it could just as easily roll back down tomorrow too.

There is no way of knowing how high it will go, with regard to putting in higher histogram bars... which should make a higher price on the overall market too.

The 60 minute chart is overbought, as the daily keeps pushing it back up every time it tries to roll over.  The 15 minute chart has already dipped below into oversold territory and is now coming back up now.  That's what caused the run up into the close, as the 15 finally curled up and crossed back above the zero level into positive territory again.

Overall, tomorrow looks very bullish with the daily and 15 minute chart ready to push the market up to the next level.  The 60 is overbought though, which could limit the upside, and in fact it could make the day just trade sideways as the charts aren't all lined up together pointing in the same direction.

Honestly, I don't see much hope for the bears right now.  The light volume will keep the market from selling off hard.  I think a big news event is needed to bring the market down now.  What could that be?  I don't know?  Maybe nothing, as they may want to take it up to 112.41 next week first, before they sell it off.

To sum it up, a slight down or flat day is bullish as that would just be a pullback in a move up higher next week.  A gap up and crap could be very bearish though, as that might indicate that the sell off has started.  The last hope for the bears tomorrow is a hard sell off... one that would make the bulls bail out, that just went long.  But, I just don't see it in the charts.  Sorry about that (I really am, as I'm short the market... so I'm a bear right now).

So the bulls have the ball for now, with 4 downs to go... at the bears' goal line.  The only hope for the bears is a fumble.  (Let it rain, snow, and hail down tomorrow on the field... go bears)

Red

79 COMMENTS

  1. Today's was very similar to Tuesday if you remember. We gapped up and faded entire gap and beyond. Closed on what I call a “PPT-style” rally. IMO, history cannot repeat twice in the space of 4 days so I expect strength early and bearish reversal in the afternoon.

    • Monica, you are obviously a perma bear. Mid to long term iam also. But hanging on to short positions when the ticker is doing something else does not make money.

      i made a killing on my bear funds before this 500 point push back and again on the rise.

      I hope you are playing both sides.

  2. None of the blogs have mentioned the hammer on the NAZ. Interesting.

    I am on record as guessing that we will fill the gap plus x, where x is a headfake.

    Worst case is that x takes us a tad below the previous peek.

    We are then headed down. IMO

    However, I do not see the daily as

  3. We will not know this day until the last hour.
    i am going to yoga to get in touch w/ my feminine side

  4. When and if we get down to the spu 1045 or so today or monday, I'm buying the 1080 calls for the opx, hopefully we hit the trend line, now around 1090, by Wed ?1086 or so.

    Then thurs or so buy puts (expire next day). On friday we have BAC (bank of america) earnings before the open, also citibank and GE.

    For GE, don't they have a lot of overseas business? with the high dollar, this could have cut into their earnings.

    also friday 10 am Umich sentiment. Last month was good reading. But confidence reading from the other goup (confrence board, I think) was down 10% from the previous month! Will this drop be reflected in U Mich reading on friday. ie Mich. reading has to get in line.??

    Fundementally there is a (hopefully) decent possibility of a lot of bad fundementals a week from today (friday) to send this market way down??

    I don't think this is nuts do you?

    Then I'll have enough money for my 5 min Renko charts to tare ass!! I'll let you know how I make out.

    Hopefully I'll be able to brag like hell.

    Or, I will go down in a ball of flames

    • Hi Anoopsan,
      I tried leaving comments at your site, but I can't get through all the bells and whistles, you have your comment system set to.
      Comment ended up lost, and now I can't get my gmail account to open. anyway,
      I think KO double top 53 is a better short sell signal. Folks will be lifting those defensive stocks, this cycle.

  5. EOD of ramp job again. I mean cmon, how blatant is the pump manipulation on pathetic volume

    • As long as the bears come back to work next week…. 😉 They DID work hard last week and most of this week. Everybody needs a vacation. =grin=

      • Hi Jim,I closed out GOOG today. ( 434 entry) Now I wished I had raised my stop loss, instead of closing it out. GOOG going higher on earnings.
        AA, should go higher on earnings too. I imagined AA was up $3.20 or 28% in AH, after they reported. silly imagination.

    • You could be right, who knows. BUT at some point before OpEx, they're gonna have to harvest some of the calls bought – I believe there have been MANY bought by the retail crowd all through the decline these few weeks as I believe this last ramp job has been anticipated by many.

      There will be a pullback next week, the question is how deep. Enjoy the winnings bulls, and relax bears. Fight again next week – have a good weekend all.

        • Lots of fear in the bear camp this weekend. IMO, we're between 50-61.8% on the fibs in SPX and DJI for this bounce. On the traditional “leaders” like NASDAQ and Russell, they're both around 50% or below. Transports likewise around 50% retrace.

          So far, this looks like normal retrace action except for financials which seems like they've taken a life of their own for whatever reason.

        • As I have said, we will ramp to fill the gap then headfake to x. Where x is at, thats anyones guess. We may take er up to the previous peak.

          CNBC is bearish hence the rally. This run was actually predictable which is usually not the case. I mean we have had so many low volume run ups. I have removed volume from my intra-day indicators. I find them somewhat useful on the dailies.

          I knew we would rally when the MA's crossed as CNBC hyped the cross and as many have pointed out history dictates otherwise.

          • It's the perfect way too fool the most people. Just keep everything predictable for a certain period of time, and then once everyone gets used too it… change the game plan.

            As long as the mass media stays bearish, the market could rally higher. I have a FP of DIA 118.16 (about 11,800 Dow), and it could be hit within a few months… if this large H&S Pattern is a huge bear trap?

            Of course there will be pull backs along the way, as I expect Monday and Tuesday to sell off some. But, this “could” turn and rally for several months? That would surprise the most people… in my opinion.

    • Most people I know that don't play the markets are now bearish, some of them even expecting a crash. That has got to be the ultimate contrarian indicator. The mistake a lot of people are making is seeing that the fundamentals are deteriorating, by know traders should know it means rally.

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