Upside Target Met?

By Red, on July 27th, 2010

Update for Thursday…

Put simply… possible move down at the open, and a slow grind back up in the afternoon until the close.

Red

————————————————————————————————————————-

We hit a high of 112.37 SPY today… is that enough?

It’s hard to say yet if today’s high fulfills our 112.41 FP, but tomorrow should be the last attempt higher. Since the 15 minute chart is in negative territory and ready to roll back up tomorrow, there could be one more gap up, or flat open and a quick run up to fulfill the print exactly.

However, many times in the past I’ve noticed that they either fall short a little or pierce through it a little… and then reverse directions. And, since today traded mostly sideways, it formed a bull flag on the lower time frame charts. That would support a possible quick move up tomorrow morning, and then selling off the rest of the day.

Either way, a turn back down in the market should be no more then 2 days away, with it starting as early as tomorrow. Our downside target is the 107.12 spy area (or the 107.35 print Anna caught today), once the selling begins. Since nothing news worthy is out tomorrow, we might have to wait until Thursday to see the selling begin.

So hang in there bears, your dinner should be ready soon.

Red

Is It Over Yet?

rippy41

as far data tomorrow goes, don't we have the beige book at 2:15?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That would be as good a reason as any to start the sell off. Plus, it's close to the 3-4pm time frame, when all the action starts. Sounds like the perfect setup to start the selling.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

Chevy VOLT ( electric) first day online pre sales, takes out Ford Explorer
(Huge SUV) all year sales.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

With gas scheduled to go up to $4.00 per gallon in November, and America going into the Great Depression 2, I'd say that sales of alternative fuels and “Green Projects” are going to be the new norm. (It's already planned by the Illuminati members of the Bilderburg group, who stated they are going to create a fake oil shortage to run up the price later this year in November)

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

Red, if you are fairly certain that gas will go to $4 a gallon, then SPY April high's will most likely get taken out.
Don't laugh, I'm already seeing one sign that says I can't throw this scenario out, just yet.
XLU is my first observed signal..Next one to watch is IYT.
$4 gas in Nov..means x-mas rally.
jimhobson

I think oil goes back to $35 per gallon, geen gets buried by a revolting population and oil drilling slows do to lack of demand.

Fly over central Canada some time. There is no oil shortage at all.

Over 70 % of lakes in Yukon and NW territories have floating oil. McKenzie River leaks oil out of ground almost as much as Valdez per week.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I had just seen a video on youtube some time back (can't find it now) that in the last meeting the Bilderbergs had, they planned to raise gas prices in November. Doesn't mean it will happen, as more and more people are now waking up to their scams now.

If it's exposed to the masses, it could fail just like the fake “Green House Warming” agenda did. That was staged to get the “Cap and Trade Bill” passed so they could make billions of dollars manipulating the cost of the “Credits” on the open market.

The oil disaster was a 2nd attempt to get the bill passed, as it was staged to piss off the America people enough that they would support the taxing/fining of “Not so Green Companies”, allowing the bill to be passed.

It's all just a big scam to steal billions from the public as if the bill passes, and Goldman runs up the price of the credit (that the companies will have too purchase when they fail to meet the “Green Standards”), that cost will be passed on to us… as in the form of doubling your utility bills!

If that doesn't piss you off, I don't know what will. Make's me want to get a lynch mob and take a trip down to D.C. to clean house… and WallStreet too of course.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

X earnings steel report, soft prices going forward. I think GG ( gold stocks) went down in sympathy.
GG might turn into a 4 day falling knife.
jimhobson

This is my weiss alert this am:
Dear Subscriber,

The durable goods numbers this morning were terrible, and it looks like the markets could show some weakness here.

If you acted on my recommendations immediately, as I have been stressing – you should be able to close out of your other two holdings this morning for some tidy gains.

As you know, I just got back in late last night and am preparing a full analysis on all my thoughts including all of our latest trades, which I will have for you tomorrow.

But for now, don’t hesitate – it’s time to book gains in your SPY and TBT positions.
jimhobson

Durable Goods a disaster and stocks go green.
jimhobson

CBO BOMB: 'Deficits will cause debt to rise to unsupportable levels'…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like we go down a little today. Just wonder if it's going to stay down, or try to rally back up by the close? We have several intraday FP's from Monday. They are at 110.60, 110.42 and 110.30 spy.

But we also got one yesterday at 112.15 right at 4pm… which that one might just be a late fill? I still think the bigger selling will come tomorrow and Friday.
Sir Woody Hackswell

Nothing much happening, eh?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well Woody… there's not any news to start the sell off. Tomorrow should begin the selling I believe.

Apple Al

Hey Red doesn't look like a lot of enthusiasm behind today's selling IMHO

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No there's not Al…

We need a reason to sell now. Maybe the job's data tomorrow? They will find a reason, as they've already given us our downside target. When will we get there… I don't know. But I suspect it will start tomorrow.
jimhobson

Vix is pathetic. no selling pressure.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

None whatsoever. Big boys have gotten the mandate not to sell. Just buy, buy, buy. Sucks as even with a down day for the market, my VXX calls are actually done for the day.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Triangle of Dow Jones
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Those triangles commonly break to the upside on a false breakout and the fall back down lower. I suspect it might do that again today, as the 60 minute is getting oversold now.

When it rolls back up, probably into the close today, it could give the market a pop outside that triangle. This assumes no negative news is release at 2:15 pm with the Beige Book.

Sir Woody Hackswell

I can lick my eyebrows!!!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The ladies must love you … LOL

Sir Woody Hackswell

I only need one woman to love me. And sorry for her, but she is bound to me by marriage! Muahahahahahah!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Somebody wake me up at the last hour of the day… I'm falling asleep watching this market.
Sir Woody Hackswell

W00t! BECN 17.50 Jan11 P are now in-the-money! Now, if only I were POSITIVE on the puts now. Sooooon… my preciousssss!

Not much else going on… and one of the small successes so far in my portfolio.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Here come the pumpers ofcourse. Volume dries up, machines kick in
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We have a FP of 111.55, which is where I suspect we are heading.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

not far from there so possible, for bears we are due for Retracement and any excuse to sell up here will be welcome

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Love how this is like 7th or 8th news story down the page on Yahoo Finance. The MSM is complacent in this ponzi scheme is unbelievable.

Unemployment rises in 75 pct. of metro areas

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unemployment-rise…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

snorrrringggg now…
jimhobson

This is a joke today.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Then the joke is on us little guys as we watch the options' value drop with decay.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

It is a joke. No movement from the beige book release, showing stalled and slower growth. Fix is in, big boys have the mandate not to sell. I think we are going back to the complacency we saw in Feb-April, where not matter how good or bad the news or conditions were, we just kept going up.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Maybe? But they told us that they plan to take it back down to the 107 area… when is a question I can't answer. I think it will start tomorrow, with the job's data… but that's just guessing as they could trade sideways the rest of the week if they want too.

Geccko23

There you go. That's what I've been waiting for. Before the Dow gave it up, I was going to comment that Nasdaq was hitting its low for the day with the Russell 2000 not far behind.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The dam has finally broken… let the water come pouring down!
jimhobson

They are very stubborn.

Now where does it go??

Geccko23

The decline starts slow and then will build momentum. They need the dip buyers to remain confident. Also, they seem to hold up the market into Wednesday so the AAII and Investor Intelligence polls can get bullish and then we see the sharp drop on Thursday.

jimhobson

What has me concerned is the vix is not going down at a rate that I like to see on sell day. needs to get over -6% fast

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Today is just the start of the selling I believe Jim. Have patience, as I believe will we sell more tomorrow too.

jimhobson

Hopefully we go back to the 1010 level but this is not the conviction we need . I am starting to think it is positioning for another run up from a higher level.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I don't think we are going back to 1010 at this point Jim, but 107 area is already foretold to us… that one should hit for sure. But, I'm afraid that it will only be a backtest of the falling channels' upper trendling… and then we could go back up again.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones triangle updated
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

San,

On the spy, would the 111.55 level be a backtest of the broken triangle?

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Leo,
in SPY it was a descending triangle that broke at 110.94

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We just got another 111.55 intraday FP… which means that it's very likely that any gap down tomorrow will be the bottom for the day, and the rest of it will be a grind back up to the FP to shake out the bears that went short today.

So be prepared to bail out tomorrow morning if the jobs data causes a gap down. I suspect that the selling will die off fast, which will allow the 60 minute chart (which is currently oversold, and will be very oversold on a gap down tomorrow morning), to reset back up to overbought by the end of the day tomorrow.

This would set Friday up for a nice move down, should this scenario play out? As Jim pointed out, the VIX isn't supporting this sell off today. While I still think we are going down to the 107 FP area, there will be shakeouts along the way.
jimhobson

This a meager bear trap if I ever saw one. hope i am wrong but I do not trust this as a sell off yet.

jimhobson

They are doing all to make this look like nothing.

And they are succeeding.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

Closing out half of my IWM puts from 66.6.
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

JPM, fake print, 48.7, takes out april high

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Screen capture it and post it Z… Thanks.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

I don't know if you are familiar with this other type of fake print. I use your fake print method, and this method too. Both have similar results. Go to the comment above, for documentation. back tested 5 years.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

3 more companies, ODFL,CHRW,IACI took out their April highs, is SPY lagging?
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

I usually don't play out of the money options…BAC Sept 14's look too good to pass up.
BAC if near 13.5, I can pick up the 14's under 0.50, I can possibly get a 1.00 exit.
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

JPM fake print…
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/j…
http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I'd advise everyone to be very cautious here. I think we're playing out a wave 4, with a wave 5 up still to come.

$DJIA, $SPX, and $RUT are breaking down, but $RMZ is still in a triangle.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Refresh page for Thursday update (with a new video)
superstition

thanks for the charts. That really helps was able to make $800 bucks today after a very CHIT week last week.

oh Here is another guy on todays action and where the market could be heading. He has been extremely accurate in the past. – Video Analysis http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44z9XHC39Tc

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Glad to help… thanks for the link to the video.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like we hit that FP of 111.55 (and a little more) right at the open and will now spend the first half of the day working off yesterdays' oversold conditions.

This setups the afternoon to roll back over on the 60 minute chart, which means a nice down move should be coming soon.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

FLAG OF S&P 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks San…

Since we already have double conformation of a move to the 107 area, I'd say that pattern is going to fail this time.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Gap fill is coming up… or should I say “coming down”… LOL
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Here we go gang… Jim, Woody, you guys happy now?

Sir Woody Hackswell

w00t! Now if my options just follow suit….

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

They will Woody…

Remember, we are going down to around 107 before any real bounces.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Here comes my nineteenth nervous breakdown… here it comes, here it comes! LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=091TgmnnVXI&feat…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

There should be a little support around 1090 spx, and it might bounce there, or simply close around that level today. If we are going to continue selling off tomorrow, as I expect, then we could see a gap down in the morning?
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Bought TZA calls and EFA and AMD puts at the close yesterday and doubled down this morning. Very glad I did. Given how the overbought the market was and how much the BB bands had contracted, we were due for a big move one way or another, and the bias was def. downward.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Good call on that Shaan… I think you will be good until we tag the 107 area. Then you can bail out and re-evaluate.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

That's what I'm thinking. I might pick up some TNA calls or sell 1/3 of my positions at the close to hedge/lock-in some gains in case of a gap up tomorrow, but I think the Mich Sentiment, Chicago PMI and the initial GDP for Q2 will be the catalyst for continued downside pressure tomorrow.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, I agree…

And we know our downside target is 107.12-107.35 spy, so that's your point to close out all of your shorts.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Not a ton of volume like we've seen other down days. That has me slightly worried.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, I see a 111.07 FP on the intraday 5 minute spy chart, from 11:20 am today. When the 60 minute chart finally rolls back up (it's quite oversold now), that could be our upside target for the end of today or tomorrow morning?
Sir Woody Hackswell

That's one big gap to fill!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I agreed Woody, but without some serious volume behind this selling, we can't rule out the possibility of a move back up. Let's see how it closes today first, before thinking that it's going back to 111.07 spy.
Ryan88

Where do you think we'll end today Leo?
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Hard to say Ryan?

I think we will hit 1085-1090 spx today, but a break of that could lead to a big move down to 1070 area. As long as the 1085-1090 holds today, we could close around that level… putting in a nice bear flag for tomorrow.

That would lead the door open for a gap down in the morning. But the 60 minute chart is oversold and will need to work that off at some point. Meaning that would could have a “pause” day tomorrow while that time frame resets.

I'll know more during the last hour of the day… (of course… Duh!)
jimhobson

Vixes are below -6% which I believe is a potential problem
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Yup, absolutely no selling pressure on the pops and instead its buy the dips. We've returned to Feb-Apr mentality and complacency.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

You mean “a problem for the bears”, right?

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Leo

Your comment about the flag pattern failure was spot on

S&P 500 support zone
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks San…

Would a move back to 111.07 spy be a backtest of any trendline pattern?

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

if SPY starts to move back i am expecting it to move till 110.90. this area may act as supply zone for today.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

This is def. the algos/machines kicking in.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We could chop around here until the last hour of the day.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Hre we go with typical low volume algo/machine manipulation. Volume started to dry up, and they took over.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The 15 minute chart is oversold and should spend the rest of the day going back up to reset itself. How high the market goes with it is a different story.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well gang, that means we will likely go back up to the 111.07 intraday print by the end of today or tomorrow morning.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

TZA is just getting hammered right now. Don't get why the RUT popped so much
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Pretty confident downside is down for the day. It's just going to be ramped now.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, it will take all day to rest the 15 minute chart, and the 60 too. So I'd say that all the downside we get for today.

jimhobson

Pretty serious ramp job.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, they told us they were going back to 111.07, so it's looks like they are headed there now.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Just unreal how much its been ramped back.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's a 100% controlled and manipulated market… you should know that by now.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

VIX has gone negative on the day. That's terrible for the bears and the bear case for tomorrow. There is absolutely no conviction to the downside.
Ryan88

Sounds like the Mad Cow run that Cobra's been talking about, where you start to throw logic out the window. I feel like Charlie Brown….you know, right before Lucy pulls the football back when he tries to kick it and he falls on his head?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL…

Well, they plan on shaking out all the bears before the real move happens. And, it will probably happen overnight, not allowing the bears a good spot to get short.

Just look for 111.07 to be hit by the end of the day, or early tomorrow. I think it will be safe to go short again around that level. We'll see what the charts say tonight.

Ryan88

Doesn't it get confusing when there is a high and low mark in the print? For example, there is a 111 and a 107 mark, both kind of recent, right?

Man, I wish I could be on Lucy's (the institutions) side once.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The intraday prints play out very quickly… usually that day or the follow day. The closing prints (or intraday one's that are a very long way away from the current price) usually play out within a month.

So, you have to play the waiting game, and just when you are finally going in that direction… you look for the print to be hit.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Picked up some TZA calls and EFA puts at the recent ES high. I'd be much more confident about more downside though if the VIX wasn't negative on the day. Hopefully it ramps back up into the close.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

did TOS just freeze up for anyone?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Not on my end.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

My gut tell me we are headed higher gang. We just can't gain any sell-side traction and it's been like that all day. Even the big move down today didn't cause a huge spike in the VIX nor did it have the volume we've seen on downside moves recently. Algos are just pumping it, selling it off a couple of points and then re-buying and ramping again.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

My gut tells me that the FP of 111.07 spy is our upside target, so yeah… we are going up now.

Geccko23

Haha. Just saw SP was down 6.66 at 1099.47 (911?) over at AAII site.
AAII shows 40%bulls 33%bears. Boy do they flip flop from week to week.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

They do love those rituals Geccko… LOL!

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Unreal

jimhobson

When volume is this light and vix is fixed they can do whatever they want.

jimhobson

The GDP numbers must be coming out good???
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

IWM topped out intraday around 15 minutes ago, looking for a pullback to the 64.8 area.
Exited my IWM shorts from 66.6 to 64, my target exit price for the IWM short. Now I have to go calculate the whole thing all over again.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We come pretty close to our 111.07 FP target. The 15 minute chart looks about topped out now, and it's now the bewitching hour. So, that might be about as high as the market goes?

Geccko23

I expect the market to close down, most likely on the low of the day. Today is forming a nice reversal candle.

Geccko23

Check this guy's charts out: I haven't been paying too much attention to him for awhile but he has some nice tick charts. 100 period average of the 1min tick charts is pretty much near the upper extreme of its range. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, I look at his stuff from time to time… seems to be pretty good. His link is on my blogroll under astrology as well.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The 5 minute and 15 minute charts are running out of steam but we should still get to the 111.07 target today.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We hit 110.98 spy… close enough. LOL

Sir Woody Hackswell

Kiss and run?

Sir Woody Hackswell

From another board:

A most interesting trading day. I call these “Alice Days” (lots of running around just to stay in the same place). 150+ point gyrations intraday yet VIX doing nothing.
jimhobson

Interesting how the R2K is kicking butt when durables are down.

Vix is showing accumulation.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Keep your eyes open on the VIX buying as that's a sign that the end is near… for the bulls that is!

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

IWM daytrading chart, hit all the lines today. exited swing short at 64. then daytrade, shorted at 65.5, then got out at 64.9.
LONG V
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

FTO long, looking scary, I could buy at 12, but might have to endure a 3% stop out, and then try again at 11.
TSO is throwing me off. FTO goes up from 12, then TSO goes to 14-15
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

New Post everyone…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The 5 and 15 minute charts are pointing up now, but the 60 hasn't followed yet. We might go back down a little more (not much, if any), but within the next hour I expect it to point back up too, and the market should rally the rest of the day.
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