Is It Over Yet?

Maybe for a day or two I believe…

But the selling isn’t done completely.  While I think we will close positive tomorrow, after a morning sell off, next week should start out down.  The charts tell me that these last 3 down days were likely the start of a wave 1 move, with the close of tomorrow being the start of a wave 2 back up.

However, I do think we could sell off in the morning first, and then rally the rest of the day… closing positive at the end. The downside target tomorrow isn’t known, but certainly the 1085-1090 area is the first area I’d expect hit.  If that breaks, then a move down to our 107.12 (Anna got 107.35) spy FP would be the next area of support.

If we do go down that far tomorrow morning, then you definitely should expect a move back up throughout the rest of the day to occur.  We have a 69% chance of closing green according to Cobra’s after the bell report.  That makes a lot of sense too me, as the 60 minute chart needs to work off the oversold conditions it now has.

So, where ever we open at tomorrow morning, any selling should be short lived as the 5 and 15 minute charts bottom out and move back up throughout the rest of the day.  Looking at the afterhours prints for clues, I see a 111.28 spy print showing up as a “high” now, but we haven’t been there.  Is that another FP, telling us the closing level tomorrow?  Could be?

That would certainly be a positive close, if we went back up there into the afternoon session tomorrow.  If that’s the case, then I can’t see the 107 area being hit tomorrow morning, but instead the first support area of 1085-1090 spx.  So, for you bears, look for the selling to stop after the first 1-2 hours in the day.

And, since tomorrow is Friday, it could stop within the first hour as the traders leave early for the weekend.  While it would be great to see the 107 area hit tomorrow morning, I’m giving it low odds right now.  Let’s see how fast it moves to the double bottom area first (from today’s low), then we can see if it going to break that support or bounce and move back higher the rest of the day.

A quick move down (with volume) would indicate it is likely to break support, but if it takes its’ sweet time, and doesn’t hit that area until the 10:30-11:00 am time frame, then it will likely hold, and a move back up would be expected.  Hope this makes sense to you guys…

Red