Sunday, July 21, 2024

Is It Over Yet?

Maybe for a day or two I believe...

But the selling isn't done completely.  While I think we will close positive tomorrow, after a morning sell off, next week should start out down.  The charts tell me that these last 3 down days were likely the start of a wave 1 move, with the close of tomorrow being the start of a wave 2 back up.

However, I do think we could sell off in the morning first, and then rally the rest of the day... closing positive at the end. The downside target tomorrow isn't known, but certainly the 1085-1090 area is the first area I'd expect hit.  If that breaks, then a move down to our 107.12 (Anna got 107.35) spy FP would be the next area of support.

If we do go down that far tomorrow morning, then you definitely should expect a move back up throughout the rest of the day to occur.  We have a 69% chance of closing green according to Cobra's after the bell report.  That makes a lot of sense too me, as the 60 minute chart needs to work off the oversold conditions it now has.

So, where ever we open at tomorrow morning, any selling should be short lived as the 5 and 15 minute charts bottom out and move back up throughout the rest of the day.  Looking at the afterhours prints for clues, I see a 111.28 spy print showing up as a "high" now, but we haven't been there.  Is that another FP, telling us the closing level tomorrow?  Could be?

That would certainly be a positive close, if we went back up there into the afternoon session tomorrow.  If that's the case, then I can't see the 107 area being hit tomorrow morning, but instead the first support area of 1085-1090 spx.  So, for you bears, look for the selling to stop after the first 1-2 hours in the day.

And, since tomorrow is Friday, it could stop within the first hour as the traders leave early for the weekend.  While it would be great to see the 107 area hit tomorrow morning, I'm giving it low odds right now.  Let's see how fast it moves to the double bottom area first (from today's low), then we can see if it going to break that support or bounce and move back higher the rest of the day.

A quick move down (with volume) would indicate it is likely to break support, but if it takes its' sweet time, and doesn't hit that area until the 10:30-11:00 am time frame, then it will likely hold, and a move back up would be expected.  Hope this makes sense to you guys...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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zstock7
13 years ago

UTI chart, I have a higher exit, than it's current price.
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/20
This stock just stays and stays and stays, in it's over and over price channel. Isn't the market great!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Looks like a good long play too me Z…

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I put the UTI Video at my sign up site..
Here's the link.
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/
You can delete this comment if you want to.
Everybody else does!
I'll understand!

CastorTroy
13 years ago

GDP! That's a big one tomorrow morning

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  CastorTroy

Thanks for the info Troy… I forgot about that one. Could be a reason to sell off, or rally?

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  CastorTroy

GDP, if it beats, and doesn't help the market, then Monday up. First day of the month usually up.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Today had some numerology cycles. 27 (999) trading days from June 21st high +another 27 tds from May 12 post flash crash high+ 13 days to April 23 closing high. 27+27+13=67 trading days but 66 trading days from April 26 high. Tomorrow is the 67 trading day cycle I mentioned earlier but I can't see a significant high tomorrow based on the candlestick bar formations of the past 3 days plus news that Oracle is being sued by the govt. At one small point in 2000, Oracle had the largest market capitalization in the world and it still has a hefty one.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Plus there are some 18 trading day cycles mixed at the June lows. And a consistent 9 day turn cycle.

zstock7
13 years ago

Hi Red,
here's a tomorrow event.
CVX reports tomorrow. pre-market. It's price should be all over the place.
I shorted OIH ahead of CVX report.
Last day of the month is usually a down day.

zstock7
13 years ago

Retail Sentiment is Friday. RTH will be down, unless GDP is great.

zstock7
13 years ago

SMH, huge 2.7 mil shares, big house stock swap AH, 28.14 up 1.8%, real print, works like a fake print. short at 28.14. next time SMH at 28.14
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradi

BloodWine
BloodWine
13 years ago

Hey Red,
Great Post… Looks like that double bottom you were calling for has already hit overnight in futures! Good Call

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Look how quickly they are trying to save the day.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

what the f was that pop

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  shaan kapoor

I think it is programed buying off the 1090. the vix is positive so selling is there but not enough to really create a slide.

Today will be a fight.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

anyone?

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

Looks like yesterday all over.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I told you guys any morning sell off would be short lived. We might go back down to retest the 109.00 bottom again (I doubt it), but even if we do, I expect us to close positive today.

Remember, I seen a 111.28 print in the afterhours yesterday.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Markets are going green soon folks.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Vix hit 7% and calmed way down but still positive 2.24%.If it goes back up this could get very interesting.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Keep your eyes on that VIX Jim as the last time we sold off hard, a big buyer came in days before and loaded up on Calls. The daily chart could rollover within few days, which would cause a big sell off.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

What an absolute farce.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

That's the 5 minute chart rolling over. I don't think the selling will stick though, as the 60 should roll back up within a few more bars.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

Replay of yesterday. Ridiculous. More days like this, and we'll all have gray hairs

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  shaan kapoor

It won't be too many more days before the daily chart rolls over… and that's when the real fun begins!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

They just threw a 110.40 FP…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The 60 minute chart has turned up now, and we have a bull flag on the 15 minute chart… plus it's forming a triangle pattern, which I suspect will break out to the upside before the day is over.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Besides the channel, the 60 is also forming a bull flag now. I expect a pop in the last hour of the day. I think we will go up to that FP around 111.28 spy.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

If a stock is forming a death cross, but the price breaks up above 50 MA and 200 MA at the last minute, does it cancel out the death cross?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I wouldn't think so Woody, but the death cross is a lagging indicator. So, it's possible that the market reverses and rallies to new highs, which then the death cross would reverse back up and then be canceled.

But you would certainly miss out on both the sell off and the rally waiting on the death cross, as it's more of a longer term pattern I believe.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

Is it gonna keep bouncing around, or is the top in for the day?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We have another FP of 110.25 spy at 1:40 pm…

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

We're about to freefall. Dow back below its 200 day moving average.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Hopefully this latest ramp is the last 2 wave we have to deal with…..Maurice Walker has a nice 5min chart with the 200 period average. SP is still declining gradually and not extending too far from it.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Seeing a sharp move down like that, tells me that the 60 minute chart is struggling to rise back up. This means that the daily chart is no long pushing the market up.

In fact, I'd estimate that the daily will roll over within a couple of days. Next Monday should be positive, as the 60 minute chart still needs to push up above the zero mark and get overbought.

I thought it would do it today, but it's not looking likely at this point. That leaves Monday to be the day it pops up above the zero level and puts in a few positive histogram bars.

Meaning Tuesday should have the 60 ready to roll back over, and by then the daily should be about toast too. The market is definitely weak right now, but until the 60 resets and the daily's MACD lines cross, I don't see any big move down yet.

But next week could be very ugly for the bulls…

DCAC
DCAC
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

If we close today below 1090 on SPX, I will close my long trade.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  DCAC

I doubt that we will break 1090 today. Just a chop fest of bot's playing ping pong right now. I think we will see a pop up into the close.

DCAC
DCAC
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have been reading your blog and you have been pretty accurate.!

How high do you think the market (spx) could go before it heads lower? I can see initial resistance at 1120 then at 1131 on spx.

I am looking for good levels to short this market.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  DCAC

We had a FP yesterday of 111.28 spy, which it doesn't look like it's going to hit there today (but the day isn't done yet). I expect that print to be hit for sure, but after that I don't know?

I do expect Monday to be up, at least from looking at the charts right now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Now we just got a 109.73 FP…

zstock7
13 years ago

QQQQ's I have signals, sell off, end of day.
IWM,DIA,SPY don't have any strong sell off signals, end of day.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

ramp after ramp after ramp. Never ending.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  shaan kapoor

LOL… you know how the game is played. It's designed to shake out the bears before they tank it, and shake out the bulls before they rally.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

They are still trying to ramp it higher. Unlike yesterday, probably no sell-off into the close. For my own sake, I hope I am wrong. Sick to my stomach of seeing my account whipped around the last 2 days.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  shaan kapoor

You should know by now how accurate those FP's are… and we had one yesterday of 111.28 spy. You should have closed out this morning and reshorted when we hit that FP today or Monday.

But, you should still be ok, as next week the daily chart should roll over and then we should see a nice move down.

zstock7
13 years ago

DIA touched 105, intraday retest high. let the pullback begin.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

At the rate we are moving up now, we could see that 111.28 print today.

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

One bullish scenario…

http://screencast.com/t/ZmEyMGFkNG

btw, Atilla now calls for 1187

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

If we go up to 1187, then we won't stop there. I would expect us to go up to the DIA 118.16 FP (about 1260-1280 spx) at that point. It would turn the trend back up to bullish mode on the longer term time frames.

It's possible, as the weekly chart is still pushing up, but I just don't know how long it will continue before it rolls back down? The monthly is still pointing down, and will over power the weekly chart at some point. When… I can't answer?

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I saw Atilla's prediction, too. Once we break 1120.95, that scenario is absolutely in play. Remember last summer?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Yep… I think the weekly chart is the key right now. If it shows any signs of rolling over then the market is toast. But right now it's still pointing up, so the medium term trend is cloudy right now.

When the daily rolls over, if the weekly follows, then it's down we go, but if the weekly continues higher, then it's just a pull back before moving higher.

zstock7
13 years ago

^%#@… 20 cent pullback on the DIA, that's it?

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

Two items worthy of note (from a daily newsletter):
* Stocks now account for 68% of investments held by mutual funds, pensions and endowments, according to a Citigroup survey. That’s up from 63% three months ago, and the highest level in 15 months
* Individual investors have redeemed $10 billion from mutual funds in the last three weeks, according to the Investment Company Institute. There’ve now been 12 straight weeks of net outflows.
So the funds are buying even as their investors are selling. What to do?

Is this how they make their billions… taking it from the mutual fund managers who are late to the party?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The Mutual Fund Managers are commonly wrong, so I wouldn't follow them… that's for sure!

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I know… TPTB lead the market in a misleading direction, wait for MFMs to pile on board. TPTB reverse course on a dime and take it! Pensioners are left without anything! TPTB have it all! Profit!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Exactly! Now let's all gang together, form a lynch mob, and go hang the bankster gangsters! LOL

Mr.Pibb
Mr.Pibb
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have an account with bank fund managers that I don't control and they recommended upping my cash position into stock funds,junk bond and other bond funds. They know my position on the market and they still insist on doing this.(and they are doing this at the top of the market–look where JNK is) They also seem to hate cash and go off on protecting against inflation blah!blah! I tell them we're in a depression and this will go on for years and I know they're secretly laughing inside. They have a smug attitude because they got a cracker jack MBA somewhere where they were brainwashed into worshipping portfolio theory and they spend their career following the fund managers hered. And I am not so sure they have my interests at hand or are dumping unwanted bank inventory into my account.

Reza
Reza
13 years ago

Red,
Sent u email

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

I got it… thanks.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Weekend Update is up now…

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