Weekend Update… »  
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One More Day UP…

By Red, on August 10th, 2010

Is all I see…

Gang, I think tomorrow will go up and hit the 113.02 spy FP that Anna caught at 8-9am Tuesday morning.  I see the same print in the afterhours session again.  This confirms to me that we are going to hit that target tomorrow sometime.  After that, I think we will sell off on Thursday and Friday… possibly hitting that other FP of 107.35 from a week or so back.

But, if we hit that target on Friday, get out of your shorts.  The weekly is still pointing up, and next week is opx week.  Both of those factors mean we will likely have a bullish week into opx Friday.  You know how they like to squeeze the shorts during that period.

However, the week after opx could be the start of something beautiful… if you’re a bear of course :-)  While it could chop sideways a little more and even be pushed out right up until the September 9th start of the Legatus meeting, it could still start to sell off some before it.

The charts will give us clues when we get there, but for tomorrow I expect a move up to 113.02 and then selling on Thursday and Friday.  I’m keeping this post short as I’m tired and today was my birthday too.  I’m 46, look like 36, and feel like 56… LOL

Red

A Very Bearlishess Day!

Related posts:

  1. A Day Of Rest…
  2. Bear Annihilation…
  3. No Recession Anymore…
  4. Last Call For The Bears…
  5. Weekend Update…

Uncategorized   DIA, DOW, SPX, spy, stock market, stock market forecast  
  • neoken

    Happy Birthday Red!

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Thanks… I need a beer right about now, but a nice sell off to 107.35 by Friday would really make my day! LOL

      • Al

        Happy Birthday Red! Your wish will come true!

        • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

          Can I make an even bigger wish? I'd just like to know the exact date and time the sell off will start, that will take us down to the Dow 8300 print? Pretty please… will some insider just tell me? :-)

          • Geccko23

            It's already started. Futures are supposedly down considerably although I haven't checked. Larry Pesavento has tomorrow as a big down day. Today was the major Bradley date, the lowest Bradley reading since 1930-31 as a result of the formations of the Cardinal Climax and the new moon was today. This is probably some major high holiday for the insiders since they propped up the market until 08-09-10. SP could never get up above 1130 despite all the time it spent around 1125-1127 (which is 911 by the way) even during afterhours.

          • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

            Just remember, that FP of 113.02 wasn't hit today… and it's showing up again in afterhours. It's highly likely to be hit tomorrow before any sell off.

  • ashsail10

    Happy Birthday Red. I went long and got stopped out for 15 cents gain in TNA :)

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Thanks…

    Well maybe you can make it back tomorrow? Unless I see another FP higher then the 113.02 one, I think we will sell off some from that high. Besides, it's more fun making money when the market goes down… he he he

  • Pzy5t0

    46 is just a young pup! lol, Happy Birthday and many more!

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Well,

      Some days I feel young and others days not so much…

  • Pzy5t0

    Red, not sure how legit this is but rather interesting interview with Mark Faber:
    http://www.shtfplan.com/marc-faber/marc-faber-p…

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Interesting read, and he certainly has a good point. This is not getting better. When this thing finally turns down, it's going to get ugly in America.

  • Xping

    Happy Birth Day!

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Thanks Xping…

  • http://www.patternprofits.net Ben

    Happy Birthday, Red… Enjoy!

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Thanks Ben…

  • Akka Kebnekaise

    Happy Birthday, Red!

    This video always cracks me up on my birthday:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfXXqPdYGQc

    Enjoy it for a good laugh as it is!
    All the Best!

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      That was too funny! Thanks for making me laugh. The lead singer moved about as much as a turtle crossing the road, and the cheerleaders were guys instead of girls. LOL.

      Maybe I'll change my name to Jenny, so the song will true be sung for me… (do they name guys Jenny?) Very Funny… thank's again.

  • Shaankapoor

    happy bday Red!

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Thanks Illinap…

  • rk318

    happy birthday, red
    from ur opinions & thoughts i had never imagine that ur at the age of 46…..(!)all right….but u still look like 25 on this page atlist to me dude……we will celebrate ur bday next month…… right?

    (u call me just rk,its fine for me & u too)

    read this
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-The-Bear-Marke…

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Lot's of people think I'm younger then I am. It's the blond hair I guess? I'm not complaining thou… LOL. Thanks.

  • Guest

    Happy Birthday Red from Australia :)

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Thanks… Mr. “down under” (I'd love to see Australia… maybe one day).

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Bullish! In order to fool the Quant Spider Bots (QSB's) , I would please ask everyone to put the word Bullish! into the the first word of every comment they make on every blog.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Hey RDL, I am 47 on 8-11-10,

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Well Happy Birthday back to you Steveo!

      • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

        And that is bullish!

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Get bullish!

  • http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

    8-11-10 SPY: Look out below
    06:14 $110.87 100

  • http://twitter.com/2wires Robert

    Happy B-dAY Red. Yesterday was a dress rehearsal. I still have my crash helmet on. 107FP here we go……………

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Thanks Robert (and yes, looks like we are going down. Yippee!)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Happy Birthday to you Happy Birthday to you ;)

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Thank you Ms. Anna…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Normal Fed hangover day after don't get too comfy w/your bear suit just yet. I think that 113.02 will come next week :( )

    • jimhobson

      I was as exhausted yesterday as if I ran Rendezvous Mountain. that may have just been a warm up.

      But yes i agree there will be a manipulated bounce. iam thinking it will start at the 1090 area??

      • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

        yes and I have a new casper for next week

  • Jaywiz10534

    Hi RED
    Now that we bears are out of patience and $, the MONKEY is about to come home. MY projection of FIBO math could take the dow to 8000, b4 the end of August. The timing of which is laid out at the jaywiz blog
    Whats almost best about the CLIMACTIC wave ending about to fall on Wall st will be the FEAR generated by such that will DRIVE the NEXT LEG HIGHER from Spt 1st to some time next year. Lets NOT get OVER BEARISH, once this WAVE {C} end sin such dramatic fashion
    BEST WISHES
    Jay

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Thanks for the update Jay. I have 8300 as a downside target, but either one looks good to me.

  • jimhobson

    Future are not looking good. We know they will bounce but what has this crashing this am. The Jap market is way down. Britain is lowering expectations.

    perhaps people are finally believing the following:

    http://www.michaeljournal.org/fedreserve.htm

  • http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

    Dow Jones Futures before opening bell
    http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Gang, if you're already short… great! If not, just wait for a bounce. I guess the 112.98 hit was close enough to 113.02 yesterday, as it's not looking like we are going back up that high again.

  • jimhobson

    Looking for Mr. Fat Fingers???

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      LOL…

  • jimhobson

    By the way Happy belated birthday. Mine was Aug 8 and I turned 56. Being over 50 sucks. they say i have the body of a 36 year old but the 30 year old young ladies pay no mind.

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Well Happy belated Birthday to you too Jim. The ladies are strange sometimes… it's hard to understand them. LOL.

      • Geccko23

        Happy Birthday to you Red. My birthday was July 25. I am a little younger than you.

        • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

          Thanks Geccko… Happy late birthday to you too. Hey I just thought of it… you should have the “Geccko” lizard as your avatar. That would be very cool! LOL

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    guys we got 112.98 yesterday so that might have been our 113. FP here is one from 8 am this am for next week i believe

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall2/folde…

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      What level is that Anna?

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo
  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Jim,

    What's that VIX percentage tell you?

    • jimhobson

      Vixes is moving from 14.5% to 12.78% So we have strong selling but it has been calming the last few minutes.

      Iam guessing a bounce may materialize in the last hour. But as long as the vix stays above 12% it will be a limited bounce

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Looks like Mr. Topstep is looking for 1066.50 ES, unless 1098.00 hit. If so, then 1104.00-1111.20 is upside target… but Tim Hefner says “no way”.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qKHCNio5Kw

    • jimhobson

      I am not sure what i got out of that.

      one guy is looking for a low of 1066 and a range of 1093 that if it tops out at 1098 we go back up?????

      • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

        He's just showing both the upside and downside targets, but he's clearly not looking for the upside one's to be met. He's bearish and thinks the 1066.50 ES level will be next.

        • jimhobson

          The futures is a different language and they talk so fast I have a hard time following.

  • jimhobson

    Looks to me like some shorts are getting nervous and covering before last hour hits.

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Well, you can't blame them for taking some profit. They've be screwed too many times before, and bail at any profit they get. But, we know that the downside target is 107.35 spy, which is probably the 1066.50 ES that Mr. Topstep is calling too. So, this bounce should be short lived.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

        In the past I've held my shorts and been burned way to much by the ramps. Got out all my positions this morning and just waiting for some decent retracement to get short again. I don't trust any move at this point, whether up or down.

  • jimhobson

    10400 just broke on Dow??? What do we have here??

  • http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

    for a positional trader the rally from here if it happens will be looked after by the 50 DMA. The death cross may not give its results right away. But the trend will remain down for a long time unless something dramatic happens

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      On what time frame San?

      • http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

        daily time frame

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    The 5 and 15 minute charts look ready to roll over now… Look out below!

  • jimhobson

    Vix just hit 12% again Sell programs just initiated.

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    I just seen a FP of 109.95 spy… could be tomorrows high? I don't see it happening today.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

      I also saw a FP of $48 on the daily for JPM earlier today. It's gone now. That's nuts thoguh. That's JPM's high since the March 2009 low.

  • jimhobson

    Its 3: pm Dow wants to save the day.

  • C C Rider

    For the unitiated, any close below 1087.69 is bearylicious!

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      I think we are going up to the 109.95 Spy FP for the close today.

      • C C Rider

        I'll take that bet! : )

        • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

          LOL… I'm a bear, so I'm certainly not going to bet you on that call. I just pointed it out. Maybe it will be tomorrow's high?

          • C C Rider

            Agreed. Looking for a retest of 1100 SPX. Might not be until next Ramp Monday!! Afterall, Friday the 13th looming!!

    • jimhobson

      just does not seem to want to break to it. 1090 has been tough.

  • Geccko23

    This is an initiation thrust lower. I expect the market to close on the low of the day possibly 4% down. Or what followed the SP120pt up days in September 2008. It's also a massive TD bear flip. None of the averages ever got a 9day upcount during the July rally. But I expect a 9day downcount now (9closes below the close 4 periods earlier).

  • jimhobson

    Here come the bounce??

  • Sir Woody Hackswell
  • http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

    Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
    http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    New post is up now gang… I expect a “pause” day, but I could be wrong on that? Either way, Friday should give us our 107.35 spy print we've been looking for.

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