Saturday, July 13, 2024

A Very Bearlishess Day!

The bears got feed well today, but will it continue?

And the answer is... "YES", it will continue!  Yippee!  It's great to be a bear right now, so I hope everyone was already positioned well for today's sell off.  For tomorrow I expect a "pause" day, even ending slightly up... but not much.  After such a big down day, it's normal to have the next day flat while the market disgusts the news.

But Friday... look out below!  I don't think any news can cause Friday to be some big rally day.  No trader in his right mind is going to hold over the weekend.  While they can fudge the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims tomorrow, some how I think the CPI and Core CPI data that is released on Friday will be another reason to sell.

Remember, we still have the 107.35 spy FP Anna caught about a week ago and the 107.12 spy FP that I caught about 2 weeks ago.  So you can expect to see at least the 107.35 print before we have a wave 2 (or B) wave back up into next week.

So, will we hit that target in the morning tomorrow?  Or will tomorrow open flat or slightly down and choppy around all day finally closing slightly up or even?  Odds are that the day will close green... how much is another story?  Lot's of people went short, and they usually will try to squeeze a few of them out before the next leg down.

Now this is just based on the past, and it certain could gap down and go to the 107 area first, and then rally back the rest of the day.  If so, I would suggest everyone close out your shorts and reload when the charts get overbought again.

Just don't forget that next week is opx week and there should be some rally up early in the week to squeeze out the new shorts in the market.  But, if it gets overbought by mid-week then we could sell off into opx.  If that happens then it would be a wave 3 down, and it could be the start of the move toward Dow 8300?  We could be there by the September 9th-20th date.

In that case, the Legatus meeting would be the bottom, just like the one was on February the 4th-6th... when the bottom hit on the 5th at 1044.50 spx.  You remember that one?  I certainly do!  It's too early to say for sure that we are going down into the meeting, instead of up... as it's only been one day down now.

Let's see how the next 2 days work out, and especially how next week plays out.  I'll just say that I expect tomorrow to give the bears another chance to reload short.  Just wait for that 60 minute chart to reset itself, and get overbought again.  It might not even put in but a few positive histograms... if any?  It's looking bad right now, but never under estimate the crookedness of the government to surprise the bears.  Just be on the look out for clues... (aka FP's)

Good luck tomorrow gang...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago

Well you are right on one thing, I never heard anyone talk about Fake Prints until I found your Mr. Red, you are right on one thing, I never heard anyone talk about Fake Prints until I found your site . I look for FPs all the time now, but find them allusive. I dumped my shorts at the end of the day, it was my first trade in over a year! If the market pukes tomorrow, I will have to join in! Lol. I also picked up some solar stocks which are in the red(excuse the pun), but hope to get out tomorrow EOD and sit on the side for a long weekend. Friday I am off camping to the thumb of Michigan, attending the glorious Cheese burger festival in Caseville MI. Thanks for the analysis Red. site. I always look, but find them allusive! lol

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago
Reply to  Pzy5t0

What the heck happened to my text? Sorry about that, and its not even Friday night or my birthday! lol Have a great evening sir!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Pzy5t0

LOL…

Maybe you need another beer, as it appears you spilled that one on the keyboard! he he he…

steveo77
13 years ago

Bullish!

Remember how I said the Fear Factor was running out of time, into the end of the triangle. Here is the new FF–
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

See my last Sundays post below, entitled 5 Horsemen of the Apocalypse, 2nd Horse
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/chart-o

Well pretty much nailed that like a boneless chicken to a ouiji board.

But there is Bullish aspects to everything. After all, realistic levels of fear are Bullish! Like the Wall of Worry….

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

Hey Steveo…

When are you going to email those header pictures so I can make a nice header image for you, with the text positioned right on it? Although your site looks much better, there is always room to improve.

I'd love to see the header properly stretched across the width of the page proper. Let me fix it for you. Just email those two pictures and one extra picture to make it fix the entire width of the page.

No charge my friend… just helping out a buddy. I'll create several headers for you, if you just email me the pictures and the text you want placed on them.

I'll make it look cool like the header I created for this site, and Anna's site. Who's knows, maybe one day I get to Hawaii and need a place to crash… LOL! What are friends for… right?

steveo77
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

OK, my B-day today so not today,

If you ware going to use your expertise, i want to make sure I get good pix chosen. I'm bullish on your idea though.

Come on out some time….but not now, now is time to bank coin! Let me buy the sailboat first, hehe.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

You don't need a sailboat to impress me, I'm happy with just good company to chat with. But, let's both try to make some money on this big move down coming.

In the meantime, round up a few good picture, and some cool headline text, and shoot me an email whenever you are ready.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Looks like we are going down to the 107.35 spy print this morning gang, as their erasers apparently weren't big enough to fix the jobs numbers…. LOL

pezhead9000
13 years ago

after dying by a thousand cuts, I re-examined my strategies and reduced the size of my positions. Now, I got one right! whee! I think I made a $100 yesterday

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  pezhead9000

Congrats Pez! Every little profit is still better then a big loss… trust me, I know. LOL.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

It looks like we could open right around our 107.35 print, from the looks of the pre-market right now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Be careful here gang… remember, once the FP of 107.35 is hit, we could turn back up for a counter wave move. I'd take profits asap…

C C Rider
C C Rider
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It may be too obvious, but I think 1050 by tomorrow would be the target b4 a corrective move. I've still got 880 to 950 as the destination, so the first move would need to be fairly large.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  C C Rider

I don't know how low it's going tomorrow, but I did suspect that we would turn when we hit the 107.35 print. We came pretty close at the open with a 107.60 print low.

At this point, the market should work it's way higher all day to work off the oversold conditions on the 60 minute chart. Depending on how much of it is worked off will determine tomorrows fate.

zentrader
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

great call Red

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zentrader

Thanks Zen…

I wasn't sure how we would open, as the jobs data was unknown. But I was fairly sure we would reverse at the 107.35 print… when and how we hit it was another story.

We only hit 107.60, but I think that is close enough. I'd say that the low is in for today.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I think the market will fill this gap before the day ends. After the 11am time frame rolls around the volume should lighten up some and allow the market to move higher into the EOD.

How high is unknown of course, but you should expect at least the gap fill target of 109.00 spy. As for tomorrow, I don't know yet as it will depend on where the 60 minute chart ends up.

It might not get overbought enough to cause another sell off tomorrow? It's hard to say on that one. What if the CPI and Core CPI come in good? Then it would push up a little higher tomorrow.

The bottom line is… we likely hit close enough to our FP of 107.35 spy today and a few days of “pausing” is too be expected now.

C C Rider
C C Rider
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Nice calls Red. There is a breakout on the directional which would lead me to believe we are going lower tomorrow.

http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/fo

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  C C Rider

That's a real good sign CC… let's hope it plays out tomorrow. I'll have to see where the 60 minute chart ends up, as it could take several days to get back over bought again?

A gap fill at the 1120 spx area could happen during this wave 2 up. You know how they like to squeeze the bears hard before they really take her down.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Seems hard to believe they could get this bounce going so quickly this am. combined news of GDP having to be restated to 1% from 2.4% 2nd quarter and jobs were pretty tough. But i guess profit taking rules.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

You should know by now Jim how accurate these FP's are. We hit 107.60 spy on the opening gap down. That's pretty close to the 107.35 print from over a week ago.

We now go up for awhile, to make the wave 2 retracement. Look out for next week though as wave 3 of 3 is going to be ugly.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Gang, remember yesterday before the close I seen a 109.95 FP appear. That could be our closing price today?

Akka Kebnekaise
Akka Kebnekaise
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red,
I've seen (and still do on my screen): 110.615 spy

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I don't see that on my screen, can you post it?

Akka Kebnekaise
Akka Kebnekaise
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

shame on me, I don't know how to. I can email the image…
I see it on various timeframes from 5 min up to the 60 min.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Email it to me and I'll post it. red (at) reddragonleo (dot) com

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Anna just posted this link on her site gang… I think it deserves a repost here too:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XqQYjrUTiw

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Here are the pictures of the prints Akka seen gang…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

Clearly we are going up to 110.61 spy before heading back down. When is anyone's guess? Could be by the end of the day or tomorrow?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

My only concern with these prints are how close they are to the opening gap down on Wednesday at 110.65… which means they could simply be late fills?

However, the 109.95 print I have from the last hour of trading yesterday isn't near any other important level, so I do expect it to be hit for sure. But only maybe on the 110.61 print?

Akka Kebnekaise
Akka Kebnekaise
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

110.61 is darn ambitious (low probability) for today with 1/2 day is left.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Yeah… it's probably just a late fill anyway, but worth posting. Thanks.

Akka Kebnekaise
Akka Kebnekaise
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red,

what I noticed on many FP occasions is that when the print is finally “touched” for the 2nd time, there is a big, out of the ordinary, jump in volume on that very candle. You can check your data and tell if you see the correlation too.
This might help to identify if the FP was “hit” or not, especially when there is a discrepancy between the expected (1st FP) and the observed.

Robert
13 years ago

I believe we melt to 1070 the rest of the day. Tomorrow should be real ugly. The uglier the better…….

zentrader
13 years ago

Here's that chart with some of the legatus dates on it.

http://screencast.com/t/NWE0MzgzZjIt

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zentrader

Looks pretty accurate to me. A turn in the market happens around that date from what I see. Some a large turns, and others short lived, but a turn none the less. Thanks…

anoopsan
13 years ago
Shadow
Shadow
13 years ago

WOW how bearish is Mr topnotch ?? 1006 and lower by aug end !
I tend to agree with Danny, wed/thursday's tend to bottom before opex ramp, we may not get one and do the opposite, but I'm cautious about going all in ahead of opex. It could be with bad numbers Fri we tag 1060 and feel around for a bottom mon/tue before the ramp, but its good to know Tim thinks more down before 1126 gets hit

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Shadow

Do you have the link??

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

How is his track record?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

He's pretty accurate at calling the levels the market will go to, but not always right on the timing. I think we are going up tomorrow as we came close enough to the FP of 107.35 to fulfill it. So, a bear squeeze into opx is likely now.

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Red for your analysis. Pzy5t0

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures in a tirangle
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

AAPL and XOM are moving up now, and the VIX is going down. I expect a breakout tomorrow… especially since we come close enough for our FP to be fulfilled.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Take a look at NFLX.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Wow! It's off the charts…

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

YGM

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Look at the similarities in the charts of the past two days to May 4,5. Flash crash tomorrow?? Today's bars are hollow though and could indicate a reversal but I don't think so. Too much key support was broken. $vix also crossed over its 50day but pulled back below. Look for the markets to be off to the races to the downside the next time the $vix shoots above its 50day average. (hopefully tomorrow—$Vix breakout of its wedge also)

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

There were island top reversals yesterday so yesterday's gap doesn't need to be filled. Don't try to trade a gap fill (for you—Well Armed if you're reading although I think you indicated its a fool's game to play every bounce).

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

New post is up gang, but the video won't work unless you go to YouTube directly. Don't know why, but I've seen that happen a time or two in the past. I included the link to it on the post.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

I dont think there is an economic recovery coming. have a look at the guy who predicted the 2008 crash. He has been spot on with all this and it is very scary!!!!

video => http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gn6kS4l2yFM

spot_img

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