Saturday, July 20, 2024

Time For A Bear Nap…

But next week should make the Bears' Day!

Ok gang, it looks like we came close enough to the 107.35 SPY FP from last week to fulfill it.  We hit 107.59 on the opening gap down and rallied hard from that level.  This tells me that the short term bottom is in, and we should rally tomorrow and early next week too.

However, this was simply a "tremor" warning us of the "earthquake" coming in the market very soon.  So far, it's looking like mid to late next week could be the start of wave 3 down of wave 3 down... meaning I think we completed wave 1 down of wave 3 down today at the morning low.

(I'm having problems with the video showing up, with the embed code?  However it's working by going to the YouTube page at... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_o-e2eMVE0)

So, next week should have us going up with a wave 2 inside wave 3 down.  While I don't know when we are going to top out, or if we already have, I do know that the next big move down is going to have a lot more then just 1-2 days of selling.  It's going to be a very steep decline down.

I believe that it's going to start next week, but again... that weekly chart could easily push back up and delay the move down until the Legatus meeting.  In other words, I'm not sure yet if we are going down to Dow 8300 into the meeting, or if they trick us all and rally this thing up higher in front of the meeting?

I've seen them do it before, so don't get yourself convinced that the move down is coming for sure next week.  It could be extended another week or two.  Let the charts tell you where we are going.  Right now, I think we are going up tomorrow or flat.

Then well see what next week brings us after tomorrow's close.  Keep your eye's open for FP's as they've been very accurate here lately.  I'd like to know the upside target for next week, and they might just be nice and tell us.  If you catch, let know and I'll posted it.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Apple Al
Apple Al
13 years ago

Thoughts and ruminations http://www.willowtreetrading.blogspot.com/
not sure I agree with you Red, we might bounce a little here but I don't believe the selling is over quite yet IMO

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Apple Al

Maybe Al? We could go down one more time in the morning and tag the 107.35 print, but I expect tomorrow to close flat to up.

pezhead9000
13 years ago

Sold shorts yesterday – all 100shares – made $160 – I can now retire

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  pezhead9000

You should be able to buy one gallon of gas with that $160.00 Pez, if hyper-inflation ever hits… LOL

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures Support levels
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Robert
13 years ago

Lets bust thru that 1070 level this time………….

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Robert

Once the volume lightens up around 11am-noon, I expect the market to push higher today Robert. But hang in there, next week is another story.

Robert
13 years ago

30 yr in afterburner. Financials rolling over…………

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Robert

Yes… it looks like it wants to go down today, not flat to up as I expected.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

I think everyone is looking for another move down today, but I still think we will be up or flat.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

If the channel breaks its support line Dow Jones may break the 50 DMA.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Wow gang…

All the short term charts look ready to roll over now. This could fall into the close. I'm not sure now if it can hold on or not? Bears might get to eat some more today?

It's light volume right now, and that might hold it up the rest of the day, but the charts look ugly (for the bulls that is).

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

This is getting to be a difficult day to call. I think they run it eod on light volume. Hope I am wrong.

i unloaded 40% of my shorts at open just in case next week end s in bull camp

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Good idea Jim, as they could push either way at the EOD. And next week will likely be up, regardless of what today does.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

We might get the tremor now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

It's looking pretty ugly right now. The market is barely holding on. The light volume is the only thing stopping it from taking another leg down.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It's very slo-mo right now. It might have to wait for Monday. Another pause day today??? Two May 5ths.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Yeah… I'm not so sure on how far we are going to rally back up for this wave 2 at this point. It's looking very bearish right now. But, Monday's are usually up, and we need some retracement before wave 3 down starts. So, I'm still bullish into early next week.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

YGM

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Thanks, and I agree… up early next week. (YGM back)

anoopsan
13 years ago

Apple Inc has a Triangle in daily chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

steveo77
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Is that guy any good? Haven't followed him, but looks too dweebish.

C C Rider
C C Rider
13 years ago

Looking at two possible scenarios. We pop to 1100 on Mon. and Tues., or we go straight down from here to start the 3rd wave Thru about next Thursday. History says the former, but seasonality says the latter. Either way good risk/reward here for bears since the 3rd wave could go to 980.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  C C Rider

It looks really ugly, but it's too bearish right now. They need to rally up to shake out the weak bears… then crash.

guest
guest
13 years ago

what would happen to the market if The Iranian power plant got bombed over the weekend??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  guest

The market would gap down and not stop until it hit Dow 8300… that's what would happen!

guest
guest
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Well, Russia is going to help out Iran by fueling its nuclear power plant… If Israel is going to stop this… they have to move soon right??? I agree with you above… market tanks, but oil (uso) would spike right??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  guest

Yes, oil should rally, but the market will still sell off do to fear and uncertainty.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Very bearish close. $rut and Nasdaq close on the lows of the day. All the averages that were below the 50day were repelled by it again today. 10day average is turning down and soon will drop below 20day. Yesterday's gap seems formidable resistance. Today was the day to reverse with all of the reversal bars from yesterday. Oil and Euro look to be in utter freefall with both putting in a pause day today.
The last two days action could be wave 2 within little iii of 1 of 3. 1 and 2 could have have already occurred earlier in the week.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Agreed Geccko…

I said in my video that I'm bullish into early next week, but these charts looks horrible right now. I'm not sure we will get any move up at this point. Very bearish right now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The perfect setup for a large gap down on Monday appears in the charts right now… but do you go with the charts, or the manipulation factor? We all know that they are going to squeeze these shorts out before the real move down happens, but the question is… from what level do we rally back up at?

If I were to look at the charts by themselves, I said we would gap down Monday, but my gut tells me they will rally to squeeze the bears out first. Which will it be? I really don't know at this point?

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Looks very bearish too me San… I don't see the market rallying too long next week, as now the weekly looks ready to curl back down too. Not good for the bulls.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yes the momentum is with the bears. Trading below 50 dma and 50 week moving average can easily trigger another correction.

zstock7
13 years ago

Hi Red, I'm home for 4 days, and then have to leave again.
http://zstock7.com/?p=3138
I did a video on Bank stocks. The bottom is close.
As goes the bank stocks goes the market.

steveo77
13 years ago

Lets step back and look at the forest.

The first round of QE had a payback of around 10%, for every Trillion “invested”, or sent into a “shovel ready” project, the GDP went up around $100B.

The stock market did not go up based upon “real factors”. 80% of the rise occurred on low volume after hours futures trades. This was gub'mint sponsored….they told HBB to work overtime and to pimp up the future afterhours in exchange for 1) saving their asses, 2) continued free money.

Dabama is a great orator, great politician and fund raiser. He “gets it” when it comes to influencing humans. He doesn't know shit about business or the financial markets, and thinks that all we need is “con”fidence.

No one wants to take their medicine before they have to, and your elected leaders are no different. They will try anything to avoid pain, even if the avoidance has a high likelihood of causing more serious pain.

90% of the big financial problems–yes, it's a banking problem….the collapse of the easy money Ponzi scheme that really has been going on for several decades— well 90% of those problems were just knowingly hidden and still exists (but hidden) on balance sheets. Do you know what “Mark to Market” means…if not, research it, it is very important. Don't just accept it like another financial buzzword.

Speaking of buzzwords…whenever Wallstreet or FETV (Financial Entertainment Television) come up with some new buzzword….”shields up!”….that is when yet another shenanigan card is going to be played.

OK, hope I covered the basics. Personally, 50% short on trading account into the weekend, enjoyed the nice mini-tank at EOD.

steveo
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Weekend post is up now…

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