Saturday, April 13, 2024

Weekend Update – Wallstreet Never Sleeps

Thursday Update...

One more push higher, then look out below!

Red

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Tuesday Update...

Wednesday looks like a down day, as even if the market manages to gap up and reach the 1130 level, it's like to fall back down and break the support line from this rising wedge it's in. We are within days of some serious selling I believe. Next week Ben Bernanke is likely so say something on Tuesday that will likely be blamed for the coming sell off. But we all know it's just what's in the technicals...

Red

______________________________________________________________________________________

It's been awhile...

All of last week I was have computer problems and just realized that I haven't made a post since the last weekend update I did... sorry about that.  But, at least I picked a good week to do it... as this coming week should be pretty exciting.  After much pondering on whether or not they are going to pump a ton of new stimulus money into the market, which could rally it to the DIA 118.16 FP level... I don't see it happening now.

I think that the last week when Bernanke promised to "do whatever it takes" (meaning more stimulus money)... has now run it's course, and the rally is just about over.  The first time it worked for 13 months, and by April it ended.  The rallies in between were more attempts to jump start the market, and only lasted a short while.

This should be the last injection of money by the Federal Reserve gangsters as the Fed will likely be bankrupt by the end of this year.  There is still the planned switch to the newly gold backed Amero dollar, as Ben Fulford reports on it.  The end of the Fiscal year is this September 31st, and in his last report he spoke of the US defaulting on it's international debt.  When or if it really happens is unknown, but if it does... you will see market crash hard.

The new "WallStreet" movie called "Money Never Sleeps" is coming out on September the 24th, just 4 days after the Legatus Pilgrimage ends.  The last Wallstreet movie was in 1987, just around the time period known as "Black Monday"... remember that?

Reinhardt now thinks that we aren't likely too see more stimulus in the third week of September, an my old friend that used too post many comments here also believes that "the high is in" (for the year).  Those of you who have been around awhile will figure out who I'm referring too (hint:  he has a thing with num-bers).

The charts show us that the market is ready to roll over at anytime now.  Next week we should see a move lower, which could be the sell off we are look for, or just the "B" wave down (inside of wave 2 up), with the "C" wave up yet to come.  If so, then it should peak around that September 20th-24th time period.  I'd guess at the triple top level of 1130 spx, or possibly just a little higher (only to take out overhead stops... just before the sell off begins).

Of course we could also just sell off next week with a smaller wave 1 (inside a larger wave 3), with a smaller wave 2 back up the following week... and then the mother of all waves!  A wave 3 of 3 of 3 of etc... etc... etc...  (meaning "ONE BIG CRASH")!

I think that the Democrats that are trying to hold this market up until after the elections in November, but they are going to fail now I believe.  Too many signs point to a final top within the next 2 weeks occurring.  As much as they'd like to keep it up... the Viagra is wearing off now, and no amount more is going to work anymore.  Sometimes it's just needs to go down and rest, and Dow 8300 is the likely resting point for this sick market.

I've been leaning bullish over the last few weeks, ever since that weekly chart (and the daily too) pointed back up on the histogram bars.  It was also around the time that the Fed's pump more money into the market.  At that time period, Reinhardt was still putting up pictures of women that were... how should I say this?  errr... "in a stimulated state of mind".

I wondered why he was think that, as Bernanke already promised more money in the last Fed meeting about 2 weeks ago now.  If he promised it back then, before the Legatus Pilgrimage (and the market rallied hard from it)... then what's left to do after the meeting?  Can you say... nothing? ... as in "let the market fall to pieces".

I'm glad to see him change his opinion on it, as he's been correct too many times when it comes to the market direction before and after a Pilgrimage occurs.  I don't like being on the opposite side of someone who has proven his ability to call the market direction correctly so many times.

So, let's try get a little closer look at next week.  The daily chart is still pointing up, but can roll over at any time now.  The 60 minute chart is still pointing up, but also can roll over at any time now.  (I know, that's not much help... LOL).  My point is this, while the charts are pointing up, the market is in in a rising wedge with ton's of overhead resistance and some of the lightest volume of the year supporting it.

That all spells danger!  Danger Will Robinson... Danger!  (you need to be at least my age to understand that quote).  The triangle forming on the 15 minute chart could gap the market up on Monday, if it breaks out to the upside.  Of course if it breaks down then the market should fall pretty hard from it.  I'm leaning more for a breakout to the upside because of the 60 minute, daily and weekly chart still pointing up.

I've seen them rally all week (like last week), and get all the bears short at the end of the day on a Friday... and then gap it up on them Monday for the squeeze out, which then quickly reverses with no bears left to profit from it.  Just typical manipulation on their part.  Trick the masses, and not allow them to profit from the coming sell off.  That what leads me to believe that we have 1-2 more weeks left before the wave 3's begin.

However, if we do go up on Monday, I think we'll sell off on Tuesday.  Whether or not that is the start of the coming crash or not is still unknown?   It depends on how far down we go?  If we end the week out close to the 105.39 spy FP area, then I think the coming crash has started.

But, if we only sell off a little, and rally back to close the week out slightly down, flat, or even up (I doubt it, but possible), then that leads me to believe we'll see one more push higher to at least the 1130 triple top area.  The time is near though, as we are about to see a big stock market crash coming... and it's likely to surprise a lot of traders too I believe.

Ok, to sum it... I'm leaning more toward a continued move up on Monday, and some selling on Tuesday.  If the selling doesn't go down below the rising channel line now forming (about 1080-1085 area), then a final "C" wave back up into the week after this one is likely.  That would top it out around the end of the Pilgrimage and the release of the new Wallstreet movie.

The other possibility is a sell off down to the 105.39 spy FP by the end of this week (making a wave 1 down, inside a larger wave 3), with the following week retracing part of the down move (making a wave 2 up, inside a larger wave 3 down)... which leaves same time period of the 20th-24th to start the multiple wave 3's down (aka... a "Stock Market Crash").

Hopefully everyone can get positioned short over this coming week, and possibly next week, as the move down is going to be very profitable (for the bears that is... he he he).

Good luck everyone...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

That’s what Geccko posted last week… too funny! Thanks for the reminder.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Look on Wikipedia…. I do not know much about it but there was also a movie called Wall Street that came out in….. you got it…. 1929!

Kayfischer83
Kayfischer83
13 years ago

Hey Red Dragon can you give your email? i can send your some elliot stuff that I am suscribed to.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

red at reddragonleo dot com

Robert
13 years ago

Ramping it up till the last bull is in today. Lets see what effect the 200dma will have. Alot of bullish sentiment. Gap and crap would not surprise me………….

Anna
13 years ago

Red don’t count on a down week this week it’s triple witching
I do think the overnight high is in tho as I told my folks on HOB
http://hotoptionbabe.com/blog/62-an-exciting-quarter-coming.html

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures before opening bell:CLICK HERE

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I expect some selling (probably Tuesday), but the rest of the week could go back up and erase any selling. So yeah, I agree with you on that one. I’m looking more toward the week after opx to be down. This week is a tough one to call.

Anna
13 years ago

Tuesday the most bullish day of OPX (normally) that doesn’t mean it can’t go down for sure, btw I told hobstars that the overnight high is most likely in and we are stair stepping down now

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

It’s also called “Turnaround Tuesday”… but yes, it could still be an UP down, and the rest of the week sell back down some. I’m not expect a big sell off this week, as it could end about flat… but next week is another story.

Rk318
Rk318
13 years ago

i had average the put at every rise 5500,5600,5700, now waiting for 5900 common, i want to see how extreme this meaningless rally……..

red i want to ask u why ‘they’ use fp to pointing out the next target? is there any technical reason ? there r many other things too. if it is only method then they must have mention their expected time frame with that fp with any other form of code……….is it possible?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I’m sure the people they are sending the message to… know the code for the time frame. I don’t know the that information unfortunately, so I have to use technical analysis to figure out the direction, and add in the FP’s when we go in that direction.

Rk318
Rk318
13 years ago

then they must be post some (fake) fp’s time to time to confuse us.

what i feel that we go 1130 area today(or tomoorow) with extreme buying to the perfect entry point for us & even feel like many beers wouldnt get entry when fall began becaus it might be huge one too unexpected for every one. i hope this will happen ……….

anoopsan
13 years ago

Ascending triangle of S&P 500:CLICK HERE

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I think 1130 would be a great place to get short. We should have a move down from that level for sure… at least a one day move, and maybe more?

The concern is that they might try to pop it above that level briefly, to clear out the overhead stops… then reverse hard not allowing the bears to get short. The move down will likely happen overnight, when no one is positioned for it.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

There is a 111.55 FP now, which is simply “gap fill”. It could be our closing target today?

zstock7
13 years ago

I’m finally getting some signals I can use, on my overnight index charts. Let me calculate some ranges, and I’ll get back to you. They already say, at least 1 down day this week.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Yeah… I’m not sure if the week is going to end “Down” or “Flat”, but we should have at least one down day this week.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Anthony Allyn is now bearish again. The Trader is bearish although he is writing about an extended topping process. Despite the up day, TLT made a daily reversal higher. $Vix had a reversal bar and is now 5 days removed from closing below its lower BB. The last two instances saw the $vix rise sharply 4 days after such an occurrence. USO crude oil with a black bar. Tomorrow will see a TD 9 upcount if SP closes above 1100. So far all of these summer rallies have not reached a TD 9 upcount. 12 day rate of change at 6% for SP right near the levels (actually slightly higher) of the last two summer peaks. This rally is truly a snapback affair unlike the others since its been basically straight up. Doji tops aren’t required. It’s near the point of exhaustion. 60min Macd lines did cross higher but not by much and will have a hard time separating. A same pattern occurred at the June 21 top.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

SP closed at 1121.x2 so we have two esoteric numbers embedded in there and I think SP was up 1.11% and $vix closed at 21.21 (a reversal also of the SP closing high #). I think $rut closed at 653 (11(1110). The Dow has today’s date embedded in its closing number and I saw that with gold last week.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

You’re starting to sound like someone else I know (who is very good with num-bers)… LOL

zstock7
13 years ago
zstock7
13 years ago

QQQQ should be at 46.6 or 46.25 by Tues or Thursday.Fri… Tues or, WED SHOULD BE A HIGHER HIGH, than today.

Robert
13 years ago

Great day for the bulls. Had to cover this morning. I feel a selloff is coming as soon as tomorrow. Bulls are everywhere. Everyone expects lots of upside during OPEX. Bear cap still on.

Robert
13 years ago

Great day for the bulls. Had to cover this morning. I feel a selloff is coming as soon as tomorrow. Bulls are everywhere. Everyone expects lots of upside during OPEX. Bear cap still on.

zstock7
13 years ago

VIX is going to go whack up down this week, I don”t think there will be any 10% moves, but you never know.

zstock7
13 years ago

Maybe RTH goes down on Tuesday, same store sales…CMG looks like it will take a hit by the same store sales report. RTH down, and that’s a down Tuesday, most likely.

zstock7
13 years ago

wow, springheel Jack shorted FXA today at 93.6

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Its going to take a lot more than one to repair the tech damage of the last 8 days.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Some more esoteric numerology. 1121 is basically the midpoint between the squares of 33 (1089) and 34 (1156). It is 33 numbers from the square of 33 and 34 from the square of 1156. 34+33=67 and I have mentioned there have been regular occurrences of a 67td cycle since the March 2009 low and 33 is an occult number and 34 a fib number. 1123 (todays high) is also 89 pts from 1212 April closing high, 89 being a fib number also. Today was also 89 tds from the May 6 low. The Gann square level that contains the squares of 33 and 34 contains 134 numbers, meaning numbers on that level 67 pts apart are 180 degrees from each other. 1212-134 is at the 1078 area which is a weekly TD support level. Interesting that the market keeps vibrating around that level. 1212-201 (3×67) is basically the July low levels or 540degrees????

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Looks like they are going for the 1130 level, as no selling has happened on the retail sales number. Still light volume too, which usually means higher prices.

pezhead9000
13 years ago

good call on CREE up 4% today!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Sheessh… this is so boring!

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Futures is trying to breakout: CLICK HERE

pezhead9000
13 years ago

At some point Europe is going to pop – and so will this bubble
http://pragcap.com/credit-spreads-in-europe-continue-to-widen

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago

Red, saw your post on HOB. The way gold and silver are running, maybe Benjamin Fulford is correct about the US Defaulting? I almost pulled the trigger and bought ZSL yesterday. Whew! lol Sitting on the side w/the little bear cash I have left and looking to go short soon!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

A big move is coming, and I really don’t think it’s going to be one to the upside. It could start anytime now, but I’m sure they are trying to hold it up until after opx this Friday.

Unless they plan on getting short themselves, and profiting from really cheap expiring September options? I’d keep a sharp eye out for some huge put buying volume on this front month expiration.

Cobra posted about a large buyer of puts last month… and it drops hard on that Friday… meaning that large buyer knew where it was going. Let’s see if he returns…

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

1122 is really the magic number. 33 #s from the square of 33 and 34 nmbrs from the square of 34. 89 tds from 05-06 could also be a veiled reference to the 8/9 high. The late August low came 89days from April 26 high. 1121-1123 would sit on the top left corner of the Gann square. 1212 is nearly on the opposite end of the square but several numbers inward. 1127-1131 would be more likely 180 degrees as they are inward on the Gann square. 9-13-10 reminded me of the 1131 summer solstice high.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Pretty confusing?? He is a bear but???

Johnny T.
Johnny T.
13 years ago

Red,

In the past you spoke of SPY 20.16. Is that a FP or just a target someone developed with EW/technical analysis? I agree that level would be scary even for us bears…well we might crack a small smile if we ride it down with a little FAZ/TZA 😉

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

That’s a FP Johnny… and yeah, it’s really a scary one!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The VIX contracts end at the open tomorrow for the September contracts. It would be a good place to start a sell off in my opinion, as all the remaining contracts are for October… hence the writer of them has another month before paying out on any of them.

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago

I am hoping for a rally into todays close so I can go 50 percent short, perhaps FAZ or TZA. Thanks.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Agreed… if it rallies into the close, and hits or comes close to 1130, that would be an excellent place to get short. I just can’t see another up day tomorrow. I think we will sell off some, as this wedge has got to break soon.

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