We hit the FP of 114.18 spy... now what?
Will The Market Crash On Monday?
I don't know? But I do expect heavy selling all week long. Whether it starts on Monday or waits until after the Fed meeting on Tuesday, is unknown? But my gut tells me it will start on Monday... after Obama speaks.
Right now the market is looking for more morphine (Quantitative Easing Part Two... ie, MONEY) to keep it alive, but I don't think it's going to get any.
There are too many signs pointing to a sell off, instead of a rally. There is the new Wallstreet movie (Money Never Sleeps), and the last Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it, 1987! The first Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it too, 1929! On top of that, the Legatus Pilgrimage ends on Monday the 20th, and this time the market has run up into the meeting.
The last meeting early this year in February the 4th-6th had the market going down for 4 weeks into the meeting. The opposite is true this time, as the market has been going up for the last 3-4 weeks, into this September 9th-20th Legatus Pilgrimage.
Also, there is the report from Ben Fulford that there might be some announcement from the government concerning the possible default of the international debt that the US owes the rest of the world. There is also the fact that the Federal Reverse will be bankrupt before the end of the year.
Who knows what other surprises could pop up next week? We could start WW3... I surely hope not, but anything is possible. Some event is likely going to be blamed as the catalyst for the coming crash, but it's really just what the charts say. We are getting ready to start a bunch of wave 3's down, in elliottwave terms. So the market is ready to sell off anyway, and doesn't need a reason. But, you know the government is going to create a reason for the sell off.
As for Monday, it's possible that we go up into Obamas' speech at noon (est... I think?). If so, then the target could be the 114.18 spy FP (possible FP?) that we got Friday morning. I say "possible" FP, as I don't have a screen shot of it to see if it was a sharp spike to that level (which would indicate a FP), or a steady rise that matches up with the rally that occurred in the ES, which took it to about 1130 before selling off some prior to the open.
If it matches with the ES rising, then it could have been a real print as the 1130 area on the ES could be about 114.18 on the spy... but I can't say for sure? So, just keep that target in mind if we open up on Monday. I'd estimate that to be about 1140 spx, falling short of the 1150 area that many others are looking for.
I know that Mr. TopStep (Tim Haefke) stated that the ES could go up to 1148 (about 1154 spx), taking out a ton of buy stops in that area. Could it happen? Tim doesn't think so... and neither do I. I'm sure Tim doesn't follow the FP's like I do, so he doesn't know about the 114.18 FP from Friday.
However, he did mention 2 upside levels that will be the next magnet target should the market want to go up a little more. The first target he called for his video was 1135.90 ES, and the next one was 1148.10, which he doesn't think will be hit. I agree with that, and I believe that the lower target of 1135.90 ES would line up nicely with the 114.18 spy FP level.
So, thinking like a wallstreet gangster here... if I were them, I'd take it up to 1135.90 ES (114.18 spy) on Monday morning to squeeze out all the bears that went short on Friday, and then tank it after Obama speaks. This would trap a lot of bulls expecting QE2 to provide the next rally up, and not allow any bears to get short in a great spot. All the bears would throw in the towel and go long, expecting a ride to 1150 or 1170 spx.
That breakout would also have the amateur bulls getting long too, while the pro's get short (actually, I think they've been getting short for the last week or so). As Danny Riley said in one of his video's with Mr. TopStep... when the bears go long, it's time to get short! I agree 100%! (P.S... that should be Monday!).
Ok, so that about sums it up... I'm looking for a possible move up to 114.18 spy on Monday, and a sell off the rest of the week. We still have that 105.39 spy FP from a few weeks ago, which could be the downside target for the first leg down in this move. After that? Who knows? We'll cross that road when we get there...