Weekend Update – Black Monday?

97
1933

Monday Update...


We hit the FP of 114.18 spy... now what?

Red

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Will The Market Crash On Monday?

I don't know?  But I do expect heavy selling all week long.  Whether it starts on Monday or waits until after the Fed meeting on Tuesday, is unknown?  But my gut tells me it will start on Monday... after Obama speaks.

Right now the market is looking for more morphine (Quantitative Easing Part Two... ie, MONEY) to keep it alive, but I don't think it's going to get any.

There are too many signs pointing to a sell off, instead of a rally.  There is the new Wallstreet movie (Money Never Sleeps), and the last Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it, 1987!  The first Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it too, 1929!  On top of that, the Legatus Pilgrimage ends on Monday the 20th, and this time the market has run up into the meeting.

The last meeting early this year in February the 4th-6th had the market going down for 4 weeks into the meeting.  The opposite is true this time, as the market has been going up for the last 3-4 weeks, into this September 9th-20th Legatus Pilgrimage.

Also, there is the report from Ben Fulford that there might be some announcement from the government concerning the possible default of the international debt that the US owes the rest of the world.  There is also the fact that the Federal Reverse will be bankrupt before the end of the year.

Who knows what other surprises could pop up next week?  We could start WW3... I surely hope not, but anything is possible.  Some event is likely going to be blamed as the catalyst for the coming crash, but it's really just what the charts say.  We are getting ready to start a bunch of wave 3's down, in elliottwave terms.  So the market is ready to sell off anyway, and doesn't need a reason.  But, you know the government is going to create a reason for the sell off.

As for Monday, it's possible that we go up into Obamas' speech at noon (est... I think?).  If so, then the target could be the 114.18 spy FP (possible FP?) that we got Friday morning.  I say "possible" FP, as I don't have a screen shot of it to see if it was a sharp spike to that level (which would indicate a FP), or a steady rise that matches up with the rally that occurred in the ES, which took it to about 1130 before selling off some prior to the open.

If it matches with the ES rising, then it could have been a real print as the 1130 area on the ES could be about 114.18 on the spy... but I can't say for sure?  So, just keep that target in mind if we open up on Monday.  I'd estimate that to be about 1140 spx, falling short of the 1150 area that many others are looking for.

I know that Mr. TopStep (Tim Haefke) stated that the ES could go up to 1148 (about 1154 spx), taking out a ton of buy stops in that area.  Could it happen?  Tim doesn't think so... and neither do I.  I'm sure Tim doesn't follow the FP's like I do, so he doesn't know about the 114.18 FP from Friday.

However, he did mention 2 upside levels that will be the next magnet target should the market want to go up a little more.  The first target he called for his video was 1135.90 ES, and the next one was 1148.10, which he doesn't think will be hit.  I agree with that, and I believe that the lower target of 1135.90 ES would line up nicely with the 114.18 spy FP level.

So, thinking like a wallstreet gangster here... if I were them, I'd take it up to 1135.90 ES (114.18 spy) on Monday morning to squeeze out all the bears that went short on Friday, and then tank it after Obama speaks.  This would trap a lot of bulls expecting QE2 to provide the next rally up, and not allow any bears to get short in a great spot.  All the bears would throw in the towel and go long, expecting a ride to 1150 or 1170 spx.

That breakout would also have the amateur bulls getting long too, while the pro's get short (actually, I think they've been getting short for the last week or so).  As Danny Riley said in one of his video's with Mr. TopStep... when the bears go long, it's time to get short!  I agree 100%!  (P.S... that should be Monday!).

Ok, so that about sums it up... I'm looking for a possible move up to 114.18 spy on Monday, and a sell off the rest of the week.  We still have that 105.39 spy FP from a few weeks ago, which could be the downside target for the first leg down in this move.  After that? Who knows?  We'll cross that road when we get there...

Red

97 COMMENTS

  1. wow red, you are really paranoid haha, I do think there is some small scale manipulation in the markets, and perhaps on occasion something of a greater magnitude. I had been trading some manipulation signals I was seeing with near 100% accuracy for several months, never losing on a trade and making small money (I wasn’t confident it was going to work forever, so I bet small). I had figured out the basic algorithm for how the signals were generated and what they meant. However, it just kept working. Then suddenly back a few weeks ago, the signals stopped coming in. Very odd. It was like everything went quiet. The only event that coincided with the stoppage was the ending of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs prop trading groups, so at this point, my theory was that one of those firms was behind it. I’ll let you know if it returns.

  2. Only 7 of the 30, dow 30 components show any leadership, and this is on very light volume. This is a very bearish signal. ( here are the 7 leaders, CAT,DD,CVX,KFT,KO,MCD,T). 3 of those 7 are JUNK FOOD.

  3. Yes… please do let me know if you see those “manipulation signals” again. If you don’t want to post them on the blog, you can always email them to me. I have regular updates from others that I can’t share the information on the blog, so I’d do the same for your info if you wished? Of course I still share my overall view and FP’s on the blog, just not always the sources that lead me to that conclusion.

  4. Rumors… well I just don’t believe they plan to rally this market. Too many signs show it going down next week. Of course we could simply go down to the 105.39 spy FP, putting in a higher low, and then rally back up. I doubt it thou… but anything is possible.

  5. REd LOL how many times have you posted this picture and headline? LOL I have lost count. IMHO it could go either way 50/50 break out or break down
    My new post up today soon

  6. Let’s speculate and say we are at 990 on OCT 16th, with the elections 2 weeks away, all the polls confirm, the republicans will capture the house…Do you really want to be short during OCT earnings season? That’s all I’m trying to say.

  7. I’m looking for a peak either when Obama speaks at noon Monday, or right before the FOMC meeting on Tuesday… and then a sell off to start.

    Monday should be bullish in the morning, and depending on what Obama says, will determine whether the selling starts after he speaks or wait until after Bernanke speaks.

    It could happen on Monday or wait till Tuesday? I don’t know which, but if it tags that FP of 114.18 spy on Monday, around the time Obama is speaking, then I think that’s the high before a sell off.

    I’ll be looking for that print to occur on either Monday or Tuesday, and then the selling to start. Which day? I don’t know… but what Obama or Bernanke says is likely to be the start of the selling.

  8. I’m surprised how many are still bullish. Just watched Jeff Kohlers weekly video and he’s predicting a breakout on the upside as well, go figure

  9. Not that any one person is always correct, but Atilla has been calling for the OEX to peak at 525 before any real selling. Well today it’s at 514 and climbing.

    Again, that FP of 114.18 spy will likely line up perfectly with a 525 OEX level. I don’t know Atilla personally, but he has called the market successfully many times in the past, and got wealthy from it. So you have too give him credit for calling this one if it hits it and drops.

  10. I’m not sure on, but regardless if it is… I’m not buying this rally. I still think we’ll go up to 114.18 spy, and then roll over. Whether that is today, after Obama speaks, or after the FOMC meeting is still unknown.

  11. yes i too……. but i had checked nyse its 4:1 perfect(81% to 17%). may be they plan to chop the bears at their best… but whatever, top is in………….?

  12. Well…

    Since it’s now obvious that Obama isn’t going to say something stupid (and cause a big sell off to start), that leaves it up to tomorrow for the 114.18 FP to be hit… and it’s probably going to be around the FOMC meeting.

    But, I don’t think we’ll get to 1156, as that too far above the 114.18 spy print. So, you shouldn’t have to “buy back your puts” tomorrow.

    Instead, you might be buying more puts? I think as long as there isn’t any QE2 plan announced today, the market will fall. It’s look like it’s going to happen today though… Bummer, I’d just like make one Black Monday call correctly. LOL

  13. In order for this to be a real breakout, the bulls need to close above todays’ high again tomorrow. I don’t think they will do it. The same goes for apple. It needs to close above today’s high too, by the close tomorrow.

    If not, then this was just a bull trap and a stop clearing sweep (which is exactly what I think it was). I expect tomorrow to be down, as the FP of 114.18 spy has been met now. So, the market should turn down from here.

    (But keep in mind… if Obama secretly pumped more money into system, then the bears are done).

  14. If the stock ( Dow 30 type) was at RSI 67, I went LONG, this market is still SEPT rally. or post OPX correction..it’s 50/50
    My portfolio is 55% long, 45% short

  15. What was the word of one of your favorite bloggers, “Patience”! As soon as I saw your post, I knew we would rally hard today, nonetheless you can call me crazy, but I just fully invested my 401 K in to RYIRX. Wish me luck! lol

  16. Every time that Cable has popped its 2 Bollinger Band in the past 2 years, it saw at least short term (1 week) weakness, and often some extended downturns.

    Well guess what happened just the other day?

    Cable hasn’t been super correlated with SPX, but still quite correlated. And Cable represents big money flow, more than AUD/JPY.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  17. I found another esoteric cycle connected to today. 11year 11 months 11days to October 8,2008 stock market low. It looks like a classic buying panic to me. Especially look at the Nasdaq. Hardly any pullbacks with many potential bulls waiting for a pullback that never comes and they capitulate and jump in at the wrong time. I don’t have any bullish inclinations so its hard to grasp the bullish mindset. There has been a rising wedge of a rising wedge the last few days that culminated into today’s throwover blowoff. Some other bearish topping patterns plus the Transports barely made a new high if that can be called a high and $Dax and $ftse did not make new highs like the US market and just rallied up to the highs of Friday’s red bars. (box like topping pattern potentially in the works). So we can either see the market crater tomorrow right from the get go or its help up until the Fed meeting and there is a sell the news event or a couple of days of dojis are required but it looks like upside momentum is flaming out to me. 60min RSIs are pretty high now. It would take a few days to make a divergence but I doubt 60 min RSIs had divergences at the snapback high in September 2008. Its also getting close to 1 year 11 months 11 days for October 10,2008 financial panic low (tomorrow???). Its also 3(87) tds from March lows with 396 being 66×6. Today a fibo 55tds from July 1 low.

  18. 11yr11mth11days to October 8,1998 low…………..The Trader sounds like he’s flipping bullish now and say’s he’s extremely bullish now which seems odd to me. $vix did not make new low and TLT actually rallied which surprised me since some prominent bears are even bearish bonds now.

  19. There is also the video posted on HOB by Jester that I reposted the link too early today, confirming that the smart money is buy shorts. So yeah, we are done or almost done with this rally I do believe.

  20. LOL…

    How true… how true Jim! But, at some point it’s not going to matter as the crooks want to cash in on their robbery (err… profit). So they will have too sell it off to cash out of their longs.

    And, they will want to buy it back at a discount of course (and with free newly printed money). So they will force the price lower, to whatever level is a great steal (err… bargin) to them.

    What goes up, will come down. Of course timing is the key question here. I think the top was put in today, (maybe one more short lived spike tomorrow?), and they will sell off after the FOMC meeting ends at 2:15pm tomorrow.

    Everyone is now bullish… even the bears! So I know a top is close now. I’d say we are 95%-100% done with this rally up. Tomorrow after the Fed meeting should start the selling… no matter what Bernanke says.

    And yes… it is crooked.

  21. LOL…

    If we bears are right, then we should all get together and watch the movie… eating popcorn, cheese nacho’s, large pepsi, and of course a hot dog or corn dog (made from bulls of course).

  22. today i sold my bear etfs…..but today i feel empty inside….i was waiting and I did pay to watch the sell off….but the flop and the river didnt match with my cards….i will be dead tomorrow if the turn turns the market direction….

    hope can rebuy my whole position

    6800 faz
    2000 tza

  23. Sorry about that….

    I hit the “update page” button in wordpress and walked away without checking to make sure it updated. It must have gotten hung up or something? Anyway the new video is up now.

  24. FWIW nothing till FEd comes out w/statement, but do not expect more than a retracement
    I am short Orcl, RIMM, USO and long TLT spy puts
    but have on longs too

    GLTA 🙂

    due for a retracement but now 1130 cash area is main support and we are above the 200 day MA

  25. Here we go. Give it up!!!!! The Trader very bizarre. Extremely bullish yet remains in his shorts. In fact he switched his shorts into a different trading vehicle.

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