Weekend Update – The Final Countdown

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Important Friday Update...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFwUDSUm2BI )

My Twitter and Facebook accounts are (should this happen again?)...

http://www.facebook.com/reddragonleo

http://www.twitter.com/reddragonleo

Red

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Wednesday Update...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mbi8r4_iUC8 )

Red

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Tic Toc, Tic Toc... the end of Primary Wave 2 up is almost here!

The last year has been extremely painful for the bears, but I believe it's final over.  While I was fortunate enough to have a friend share the DIA print with me and the readers here on the blog back in May of 2010, I wasn't wise enough to just go long until it was hit.

Instead I shorted mostly, with little success.  Yes, I'm still alive... and that says a lot in of itself!  Many bears died on this bull train ride, paid for by the American taxpayers.  But now the ride is almost over, as the last stop for the bulls is coming up next week.

After that, the train heads straight south... toward hell.  All the excessive eating the bulls did (leveraging their long positions, and using margin) is going to make them too fat to exit through the doors on the train, leaving them to get eaten by the hungry bears on board.

Yes, as it was foretold to us, so it shall be.  The train ride down will look like the rollercoaster ride from Hershey, PA called Storm Runner... which doesn't look like it made for those with a weak stomach!

Needless to say, this isn't a ride the bulls will like.  Yes, it will end ugly as the bulls must take their turn in the slaughter house too... and there's a ton more bulls then bears, meaning the blood will run deeper!

So, for all those traders and forecasters calling for 13,000 on the Dow, I have some Viceroy tulip bulbs for the discounted price of $1,250 each to sell you!  Yes, they are original tulip bulbs from the 16th century Dutch country land... one of the kind (LOL).  How many do you want?

Moving on...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCPnOha57lM)

For the short term, the 60 minute chart is showing the possibility of a gap up on Monday, with a continued run higher... probably to about the 1280-1290 spx area, hitting or slightly piercing the upper trendline in this rising wedge (better known as the slow ride up on the rollercoaster).

It's hard to say the exact target, but I do expect the DIA print to be hit while the SPX is somewhere around that 1280-1290 area.  Remember, there are only 30 stocks in the Dow and 500 in the SPX... so the correlation between them isn't an exact science.  Just watch the DIA on Monday for your short entry.

Call this move up an "exhaustion gap" and/or "bear stop sweep"... as both are appropriate.  Keep your eye's open for more FP's as I expect to see them on the way down (Note: there is a thousand people a day that reads this blog.  That's a thousand pair of eyes watching).  Your input and help is asked by me and the other readers, so let's all work together as a team... OK?

I'm also expecting for Wikileaks to release something damaging shortly, as "some news event" needs to be the blame for the sell off coming.  Of course it doesn't have to be Wikileaks, but there will be some "planned" news released to jump start the selling.

While I'm speculating on this, I think we could go down to the 106 spy FP for Major Wave One, taking about 2-3 weeks or so to hit.  Then a move up for a week or so, into the Legatus Pilgrimage time period of February 3rd-5th, 2011.  After that Major Wave Two bounce (and after the meeting is over), I expect Major Wave Three down, (inside Primary Wave Three... aka P3!) to be the move down to the Dow 8300 (SPX 885) area.

It's possibly that the Wikileaks news could be released then, and something else released this week for the first wave down.  Since we don't know how damaging the data is that Wikileaks claims to have... if it's really bad, then "they" might save it for the end of the Legatus Pilgrimage and the start of Major Wave 3 of P3!

Again, all just speculation... but it would line up nicely with elliottwave charts too.  So wake up Bears!  Hibernation is OVER!  It's time to party like it's 1999 again!  Go mortgage your house, buy all the "shorts" you can, and just default on you house payment later... everyone else is!  (Just kidding).

Red.

Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords Shot by Illuminati mind controlled kid

P.S.  I just heard that Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords was shot.  This is an obvious attempt by the gangsters to put down a good person.  I ask that everyone support this woman, and send your prayers her way.  If anyone can find out how to support her financially, please let me know and I'll put up a link to her site or paypal link here on the blog.

P.S.S.  Since the gangsters don't like her... I love her!  My new bumper sticker will say "Gabrielle Giffords for President".  God be with her please...

2750 COMMENTS

    • Thanks Jig…

      I think Chris Carolan should also do that from time to time. It might help gain more subscribers? He follows cycles relating to Astrology, with the planets and the moon I believe and has some interesting stuff (when I could read it for free).

      But we also have the Spiral Guy, and many others listed in my “Astrology Moon Cycle” list that are free. The Spiral Guy’s chart lines up perfectly with a turn over this weekend on the 9th.

      Of course I still us spiking higher to hit the FP first, and then reversing back down… which should happen on Monday I believe. Then the train heads south and/or the roller coaster starts back down.

  1. Thanks for your posts, Red
    Fairly safe to say your FP, when reached is a safe place to short…another Gann / EW expert (paid subscription), has same “extreme” targets for this run, and says that mid Jan is final peak for 6-12 months but maybe much longer (basically, bear market into 2012)…Same for gold, his target is about $1050, but I can see how in “heat of the moment” you FPs can be hit…I’ll be a buyer there, as he sees gold going parabolic into 2013. He was bullish in the fall (but I didn’t listen), he also called dollar bottom and bond top (perfectly)….Dollar to continue up into June 2011, Euro down in same time period…

    My scenario is same as yours (maybe slight bounce into early Feb), major selling Feb into end of March…

    PS. I’m a European chick in Canada, “Europe” was my Justin Beiber…LOL…Very few people who know of Queensryche, but it seems their lyrics apply more today than ever, look at lyrics of “Operation Mindcrime” …it’s like they were written for yesterday’s senseless crime in Arizona, because that boy sure seem to be “remotely controlled”…buy the way, I do think that the “final countdown” will be a countdown to (not) bailing out Spain, and it has to happen before April, when most the Spanish debt is due to roll over…

    • Thanks for sharing (and posting) MsChemeng… And yes, I wore myself out listening to Queersryches’ “Operation Mindcrime” CD. I love it! It’s a work of pure genius the way the lyrics flow from the first song to the last… all completing a story that’s fits today’s evil world perfectly.

      Do post more often, and keep praying for Gabrielle Gifford… as in the future, she could be the “hope” America needs?

  2. That shooting was sad. Six people died. Giffords is still in critical condition after being shot in the head and I am hopeful she will be able to recover from this. My whole church will continue to pray for her.

  3. Red, I know you said you didn’t have any FP for silver. But I do remember from a long time ago a FP for silver at $19.00. Can you confirm this?

    I am heavy on Silver Puts because of the major bearish divergence on the macd and rsi on the daily silver and gold chart.

    I think we will continue a push down in Silver and then we should be off to new highs in silver and gold for the remainder of the year.

    I could be wrong though and eating dog food later this week because of my bad judgment.

  4. I started a project that I call “Real Data”. For the most part these are Excel Spreadsheets that are 100% downloadable with a direct link and no spam.

    Truth benefits the recipient. Same as “Real Data”. The powers that be do not want to provide Real Data, because it does not benefit them.

    One cool sheet I have already is Sentiment Data going all the way back to 1987. It is yours, for free. Real Data.

    You got some Real Data you want to share? Drop a comment or email the data to me at stock *at* hawaii.rr.com

    Check out the Real Data here

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  5. I started a project that I call “Real Data”. For the most part these are Excel Spreadsheets that are 100% downloadable with a direct link and no spam.

    Truth benefits the recipient. Same as “Real Data”. The powers that be do not want to provide Real Data, because it does not benefit them.

    One cool sheet I have already is Sentiment Data going all the way back to 1987. It is yours, for free. Real Data.

    You got some Real Data you want to share? Drop a comment or email the data to me at stock *at* hawaii.rr.com

    Check out the Real Data here

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/p/real-data-series.html

  6. red,

    thanks for the weekend update! patience is a b*tch, but we are almost there!

    hey red, you’all should put up a donate button. i would use it. you deserve a good bottle of wine here and there for all your hard work!

  7. Good evening all. Alcoa should start off earnings season with a positive bias. Pomo will keep the market going up to 1300 area. Enjoy the ride up…….

    • How obvious is this that this kid has been programmed? Very obvious too me. He signed up for his youtube page about 3 months ago, and only put up some black and white text message. Come on! This reeks “fall guy”, “pawn”, “set up”, “patsy”…

      Total Mind Control was done on this kid, from an early age. One he doesn’t even remember. A call was made, and he was “triggered” or “activated”.

      But, the good news is… the assassination attempted failed!

        • No, I don’t know? But I would suspect that “they” don’t want Palin winning the next Presidency, so they are trying to trash her now… before the next election.

          Who they want in, is unknown? But I did read somewhere on Ben Fulfords’ blog (some time back?) that “they” wanted to replace Obama with Hillary (or General Petraeus?).

          I think Palin is a “wildcard” that “TPTB” don’t control… yet. But she’s still NOT what America needs right now as President. We don’t want another Satanist Puppet like Obama is, or his replacement Hillary… as she’s just as bad.

          We need someone like Ron Paul, as he seems to be the only one standing up (at least that we see publicly) to TPTB right now. It’s too early to tell if he’s really a “wolf” in “sheep’s” clothing, but right now he’s America’s best hope… NOT Hillary, Palin, or anyone else I’ve seen.

          However, since “they” (aka… TPTB) tried to assassinate Gabrielle Giffords with some brainwashed kid, that tells me that she is their worst enemy.

          And you know the old saying…

          “The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”

          I say for 2012…

          Ron Paul and Gabrielle Giffords for “Taking Back America”

    • How obvious is this that this kid has been programmed? Very obvious too me. He signed up for his youtube page about 3 months ago, and only put up some black and white text message. Come on! This reeks “fall guy”, “pawn”, “set up”, “patsy”…

      Total Mind Control was done on this kid, from an early age. One he doesn’t even remember. A call was made, and he was “triggered” or “activated”.

      But, the good news is… the assassination attempted failed!

  8. Impressive Trade Ideas
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    Check out this trade log, there are a few losers for sure. Let the stop do it’s work, then move on, NEXT TRADE!

    These are from Breakpoint Trades
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  9. i WANT one more SHORT squeeze – is that too much to ask for??? AHHHHHH is anyone else at the edge with this daily chop???

    • Richie… you’ve be dead on accurate about the market. I’m just wondering if you plan to go short when 1300 (which is about the level of the DIA print) is hit.

      I’m in agreement with you on “one more squeeze” as they never make it this easy to catch a move down. Since tomorrow has been a down day recently, I expect it to be an up day (gotta change things up from time to time, or else the sheep will start making money).

      • red,

        short will be the most lucrative way to go, and so i will go short. i am unsure what the S&P will top out at, but my gut tells me 1300 is too perfect a number – and symbolic too. the DIA was finding a bid at points today when the s&p was dropping – so that final S&P number is beyond my comprehension. i am expecting something big to mark 1/11/11 – something of importance. i am hoping tommorrow will mark the top of the market – so it will indicate both the end of P2 and beginning the return to the bear market. I am looking for the catalyst to gap the market up overnight – the world wide economic calandar is light….. there has never been a new leg of a bull market that has been built upon a move with so many unfilled gaps up ever – in the history of the market. this is what we have had since the 1040 low of july of last year. the entire move will be retraced – that much i do know…….

  10. Buy the dip silly. Nice bear trap today. Very dangerous to short this strooong market. Chop should continue this week, a traders dream. Hey Red, in answer to your question, I think we do correct some after 1300ish. I do not believe we see your significant downside until summer. The rig is in with POMO. Don’t fight the Fed.

    • Well, it’s possible that we could chop around for awhile long, but I don’t think they can hold it up until summer though. That would imply we go much higher then the 1300 area.

      What makes you think that the POMO will be able to keep it up that long? Borrowing from one credit card to pay the payment on another is exactly like what the Fed is doing with these POMO’s.

      It can’t go on forever. Like I said, we could go down into the Legatus Pilgrimage date for Major Wave ONE. Then rally back up into March for Major Wave TWO. If it happens like that, the Major Wave THREE will start sometime in March, possibly April… but I can’t see June/July/August.

      Of course if the market takes out the 1300 level, then yes… they will chop around until summer. I’d be interested to know how you make your decisions to stay long or go short on the market. You should email me sometime with more details.

      • I feel it’s all about interest rates. Until the 10 yr gets to levels where bonds look attractive people will be in stocks. Of course there can always be an EVENT that will sink the market like Europe or muni defaults.

        • Robert, here I do not agree with you. You seem to be blinded by the market. Everything always looks best at the top.
          Portugal needs help this week.
          Look at the IRISH CDS.
          It is a matter of time before hell breaks loose.
          How could it not be. Basically we have been celebrating that europe is about to fall apart.
          I am not a big fake print believer until we see this 118.16. If the market tanks big after that, then I am in.
          However, caution adviced with this extremely bullish market Robert. You have been right for some time. But things are about to change. Dont get trapped.

  11. Christina Green one of the girls who died in the Arizona shooting was born on 09-11-2001.

    Amazing to see Giffords survive a point blank shot to the head. I am glad she appears to be recovering 🙂

  12. I’m not sure how this is calculated out, but apparently you can price the market in silver and gold and see how much value the S&P 500 lost.

    • i am in disbelief! i thought for sure 1/11/11 would be more significant than ‘chop’chop’chop….. red can you call up the legatus crew and remind them to GET A MOVE ON!!!!

  13. As far as the Congresswoman, I do not think that she was targeted by the illuminati. If they wanted her dead, she would be dead, as they would have had a backup sharpshooter to shoot at the same time as the patsy, using the patsy’s gunshot sound to mask the real assassin’s bullet.

  14. I’m disappointed that a blow off top didn’t happen today. Bummer! Maybe they will wait until Friday, and then tank it over the weekend? Something needs to give soon, as I’m tired of waiting.

    But, I’m stubborn… and I refuse to get short until the upside print is hit. These daily swings up and down are designed to trap the bears. I’m not going to be one of them this time.

  15. Nice grind upward. Upward to 1300 we go. A little heads up Red, POMO gets updated tomorrow about 2:00. Any hint of less funds going in could create a selloff. Rally on…………

    • Well Robert, if the POMO is updated at 2:00 pm (is that EST?), then they need to push this up hard to the FP on the DIA before that’s released, as I suspect that “something” wicked is coming soon… so it might as well be blamed on less POMO money as anything else.

      That allows them to save the really damaging data (from Wikileaks I believe) until later this year to kick off Major Wave 3 of Primary Wave 3! That one is going to be ugly!

      • Yes, thats EST. We are going to break out of this trading range and I think its going to be big. Lets hope there is no surprises from the FED and rally hard. Big storm coming in to Wall street tomorrow. Lets hope the traders show up…….

        • Are you also thinking that the POMO news will scare the market and cause the sell off we’ve been waiting for? I can only say that if we hit that 118.16 print, and stall out just before 2pm, then I can see the news surprising Wallstreet… let the selling begin! LOL

  16. let me remind you 1 thing prob it help you to determinate strategy of short entering. sp500 Jul hi was 1120,95. aug – 1129,24 sep – 1157,16. oct – 1196,14 nov -1227,08. dec – 1262,6 and curen hi in jan is 1278. in a row max of max climbing we have 0,74%, 2,47%, 3,37% 2,59% 2,89% and at last in a moment jan max/max hi is 1,22%/ Im statisticly analizing a hi, hi and low, low, for almost 50 years and its very low probability that we will go above 1300. Afer such row min 7% -10% correction essentual imo.

    • I’m with you on that one. I think that too many bears are waiting at 1300… which means they will fall short of it a little, not allowing the bears onboard. Also, I think 1300 is a little too high when compared to matching up with the DIA 118.16 print.

  17. We will up max till 1290 in jan and down to 1230 as a min cos its a min – max range of mounth in current vol conditions is 6%.

  18. One idea in addition its since a aug vix not broke his max of max in a mounth row view its a first time for a longest time and let me supouse that a hi volatility time on the way day to day staticticly its evident in a face.

  19. Trichet has been frontrunning the most vulnerable Eurozone bonds; Greece and Ireland. Look at the yields drop – they’re going to do everything they can to make sure the Portugese auction go well. POMO will be big as usual, I can’t see why it wouldn’t be bigger than the last tranche.

    What monkey wrench will be thrown in the mix?

  20. Silver broke out at $29.57 around 7PM. Silver is bullish yet again!

    Looking to pass $30.00 overnight. A fast move to $35.00 is possible.

  21. We opened at 117.15 on DIA… we’re getting close now! Maybe the 2 pm POMO data will be the reason to tank her? Or, maybe the news will first spark the move higher that we’re looking for, and then it sells off? Either way, I’m going short when the target is hit. Good luck everyone… may the force be with us!

    • As of right now, today’s high on DIA is 117.42, so we’re ~.6% away! The question is how close to the FP is “close enough” to call it hit?

    • The dollar has been going up, while the market has too. If the dollar rolls back, will the market follow? Or, will the inverse relationship they’ve had in the past come back into play?

      On the weekly chart the dollar still has room to run up, but on the daily chart it could roll back down for awhile. Hard to figure this one out?

      • IMO DXY is not really an accurate way to measure anything. The dollar is just weighted against a basket of other currencies. The driving factor has been strong oil prices & the weak Euro.

        It’s hard to tell what will happen in the short term. But long term I think we will severe a lot of “traditional” relationships.

        We very well could just continue to go up where stocks will reflect even higher and inflated prices.

  22. Red,
    Whatever happens today, it may be all you will get…if you are itching to short something FOSL has started to break down, as it did most Jan in the past (my puts are finally paying off)… Few people I follow have been pointing to top Jan 12th in time, most are saying their upside objections are satisfied…there may be 100 Dow points you are leaving on the table, but given the “publicity” of you blog, we may stop short and reverse violently (banks earnings, Europe)…We all agree on straight down on Feb, and they may shut the door early…kind of like May 2010 was suppose to be an upside month, then down… we know what happened…
    It’s a good time to increase volatility and leave majority very exposed into Feb, where all they can do is sell. I can see how CNBS will spin first few days as “needed correction”, than everyone starts to realize the worse is yet to come

  23. red,,,

    today the DIA FP will be hit….i use the DAX as a daily indicator, and it ended the day UP 1.67%…..this is more than enough to hit the DIA….i think it will hit and stay, or reverse slightly off that level…..we are close…this is exciting!

  24. Crackhead valuation of OPEN. Fundamental 156.02 P/E. 24% Short Float.

    The business is restaurant reservations of tables ¿ – ?

    Who thinks this stock is a great buy? Smokey the bear?

    Shakes head…I just don’t understand.

  25. If this market doesn’t roll over after the FP is hit, I’ll be eating mud for breakfast, lunch, and dinner… for the next year!

    Just be careful everyone, as nothing is written is stone. While I’ll be risking my money on shorting it, you should all be aware that my exposure of the FP could have changed the plans. So… gamble wisely!

        • My thought is they may start driving up the cost of puts & short etfs prior to the highs being hit. Not sure, but we will see…

          • Why would they do that? They are the only one’s buying them! They want them as cheap as possible. I’m probably the only bearish blog left right now, as everyone seems to think we are going to 1300 spx, and/or 12,000 dow.

            If they go to either of those levels, they will go higher. They have to fall short of the level to not allow any bears onboard. Once the move down starts, the vix will go up big and the bears won’t be able to buy in at the best price. They will be chasing the tape down, just like the gangsters planned.

            Believe me… they want the “puts” as cheap as possible.

        • Hay Red: On an FP related matter. Have you seen the 1-11-11 update posted by Clif High on his website, (Damn…update from Markets entity), regarding a possible sudden derivatives failure associated with the gold/precious metals market? His time frame is a matter of days and likely occurring by 1-25-11, the date of the next Shape report release. What was the FP on GOLD? This could be the catalyst that causes that FP to be hit…

    • red,

      are you looking for a daily reversal candle?? what degree of sell off were you expecting?? the DAX closed near the HOD……

      • I don’t know if it will close down hard, or just sell off a little? If it just sells off a little, then it should continue with Thursday Job’s numbers. Possibly that will be the news event to cause the sell off?

  26. Where is Robert at? I wonder if he still thinks the POMO won’t disappoint? The timing of the POMO ending right when the market is about ready to hit the FP speaks volumes to me.

    Whatever they announce, I think it will cause the selling to start. It can’t be a “coincidence” that the market is ready to hit the FP at the last day of the current POMO schedule. I’m sure it was planned that way.

    • IMHO, even if they sell this market off. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a large portion of pullback buyers in the wings, waiting.
      and even the hint of a QE3 (regardless of ones opinion if QE works) could smack a bear in the face.
      -GG

    • The new POMO schedule is released a 2 pm today. If it’s not enough money to make the market happy, well… just picture the fat kid in “Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory” without candy.

      • Red,

        Too funny….I have used the Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory analogy through the whole runup from the lows.

  27. WASHINGTON — Central banking in the aftermath of a financial crisis is a lucrative business, it turns out.
    The Federal Reserve will deliver a record $78.4 billion to the Treasury from its investments last year, a 65 percent increase from the $47.4 billion it transferred in 2009, according to preliminary estimates released Monday.

    “It’s interest that the Treasury didn’t have to pay to the Chinese,” the Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said, half-jokingly, dur

    ing a Congressional hearing on Friday at which he offered a rough preview of the figures.

    The transfer to the federal coffers is a byproduct of the ballooning Fed balance sheet, which now stands at nearly $2.5 trillion — nearly triple what it was at the end of 2007, when turmoil from the bursting of the housing bubble began to disrupt financial markets.

    The Fed has been amassing assets in an effort to stimulate growth by holding down long-term interest rates. Short-term rates, which the Fed influences more directly, have been essentially zero for more than two years. Low long-term rates have made borrowing cheaper for corporations and households and have lifted securities markets, though unemployment remains stubbornly high.

    Last March, the Fed completed the purchase of $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and in November, it began buying $600 billion in Treasury bonds.

    Interest income from its investment portfolio has produced record profits for the Fed for two consecutive years. But over time, when economic conditions improve, the portfolio could become a risk, because the investments could lose value when interest rates eventually rise.

    “From the taxpayers’ view, I think it is a mistake to make much of this number either way,” said John H. Cochrane, an economist who has been critical of the central bank. “The Fed is acting like a huge hedge fund on our behalf. It is borrowing at very low short-term rates and investing in long-term government bonds, mortgages and other risky loans. It made a profit on those investments last year, but it is bearing a lot of risk.”

    Mr. Cochrane, a University of Chicago finance professor, said the Fed was intentionally bearing those risks to support housing and other markets.

    “But inevitably, with a big portfolio of long-term bonds, mortgages and risky securities, the day will come when the Fed loses money on those investments, at least on a mark-to-market basis,” Mr. Cochrane added, referring to the accounting the Fed uses to fairly value its balance sheet.

    In testimony before the Senate Budget Committee on Friday, Mr. Bernanke acknowledged the risk. He gave an estimate of the Fed’s profit for 2010 and said that it was “much higher than normal.”

    “Should it be the case that short-term interest rates rise, which of course could happen if the economy recovers and we need to normalize monetary policy, then those remittances could go down,” Mr. Bernanke said Friday.

    For now, Mr. Bernanke added, the Fed “is a profitable program, from the perspective of the federal deficit.”

  28. Hay Red: This is slightly off subject at this moment of our trading day but could be very important to anyone planning on parking money in precious metals – as a strategy to ride out the upcoming market collapse. Have you seen the 1-11-11 update posted by Clif High on his website, (Damn…update from Markets entity), regarding a possible sudden derivatives failure associated with the gold/precious metals market? His time frame is a matter of days and likely occurring by 1-25-11, the date of the next Shape report release. What was the FP on GOLD? This could be the catalyst that causes that FP to be hit… Allowing TPTB to take money from all those that seek the security of precious metals as the market collapses.

    • Thanks for the update. The FP on Gold was 935 (and 939). They can be seen on the toolbar below, under the “Photos” button.

      (do you have a direct link to read that report?)

      • IF gold ever dropped to $1,200 there would be so many buyers that it would spike up to $2,000 an ounce. India is hoarding gold as they purchased 557 tons in 2009 and 800 tons in 2010. The chance gold could hit 935 is highly unlikely.

        • I seen the print many times at the end of the day. All of the other prints were only shown once. So, I do question the accuracy of the print. It “could” have been an actual technical error?

          I won’t be looking at gold or silver anyway, until the Dow 8300 print is hit. Then I see where the metals are, and if they are around that area, I’ll go long on them. Remember, I also have a gold FP of 3500.

          • go to madhedgefund traders blog, he has interview with Nenner…
            Nenner uses cycles (as some Gann traders I follow) and has loaded up on GLD 100 puts…the only substantial volume, which matches timing for rise of US dollar into June, gold down, euro down into June (not my timing), but it all lines up… I have some GLD June puts as well, but I’ll likely not hold until then…

          • That’s pretty deep, but if the market collapses then it will do so before June I believe. Those puts now cost 23 cents (ask) and 18 cents bid. I wonder what they’ll be worth in June? That could make someone a ton of money… if gold goes down to 935?

          • Elites are buying physical, not paper…lot more paper then physical…can’t make the delivery demands or London exchange will be exposed for the fraud that it is…so dump paper, force margin calls, remove all smaller players, then take delivery at much lower prices…Physical gold parabolic in 2012, 2013…

            Simple, you just need enough capital to get it going…margins in equities and commodities are ripe for picking…

        • dz,

          i disagree…this equity volumeless levitating equity market has been achieved on margin…..when this market is brought down and the subsequent margin calls – gold holdings are always sold as a consequence. it is liquid and holds value….935 is possible in a collaping equity market…….

    • As I posted earlier, I already have some GLD June puts…and that Nenner disclosed he is loaded with 100 GLD puts (didn’t mention month, but I think is June, due to open interest)… from another Gann trader, I have major gold lows at Feb, March…which would make those cheap June GLD puts, very expensive, as they have lots of time value left…

      Gold always sells off, if equities sell off (to meet margins), but what would happen if sell off is in reverse…that is, what happens if gold paper fails, gold futures sell of majorly (and we know there is lot more paper, than physical)…

      Max Kaiser had been speaking of gold vigilantes and raiding of London exchange…what if they come clean??? We got no gold, just paper! What earth shattering even would that be…a true black swan…it’s not like they can separate price of physical and paper in days…it would probably freeze trade of physical anyway…other things have never happened before, that is what makes them a black swan…

      Just something to think about…as margins are maxed…

  29. Well, since we’ve yet to hit the FP on the DIA, I’m thinking that the POMO will be “as expected”… which should give the market one last push up.

    Then tomorrow, we have lot’s of economic data that everyone is expecting to be a “non-event”. This is where the SURPRISE comes in!

    Out tomorrow…

    PPI
    Core PPI
    Trade Balance
    Initial Claims
    Continuing Claims

    Out Friday…

    CPI
    Core CPI
    Retail Sales
    Mich. Sentiment
    Business Inventories

    Something will be “BAD” and the selling will start. WHAT? I do not know… but it doesn’t matter as I’ll still be short whenever it happens.

  30. On one of my blogs the traders caught a FP at 12:17:07 today on GS. It was seen on Ameritrade and Finviz – it was $141.89 listed as the low. I don’t think anyone got a screen shot – did you catch it?

  31. On one of my blogs the traders caught a FP at 12:17:07 today on GS. It was seen on Ameritrade and Finviz – it was $141.89 listed as the low. I don’t think anyone got a screen shot – did you catch it?

  32. The new POMO schedule looks like the old one… full of free money! So, we wait until the end of the day to see if they pump it up ahead of all that economic data tomorrow. Some how, I think they will… meaning that today is “the day” to get short.

    I don’t feel that 117.65 is close enough to the print. We should at least hit 118 even, and piece through a little to reach within a few cents of 118.16 I believe.

    The volume on the SPY is horrible. Only 67 million shared traded so far. At this rate, it will barely break 100. Right now the 60 minute chart is peaked out, and ready to roll over at anytime. The 15 minute chart is in negative territory and should point back up before the close…. giving us the last push needed. The 5 minute is trying to come back up from being oversold the last 3 hours.

    This sideways movement is of course putting in a bull flag. The question is… does it play out at the EOD, or tomorrow? I think at the EOD, because I highly suspect that the data tomorrow is going to surprise everyone.

    • Do you not think it will be manipulated like all the other spin.
      Even the Portugal bond spread although sold out it was at the high. Rates are moving.

      • I don’t know Jim? I think they manipulate the numbers positive and negative… depending on what they want the market to do. Is anyone expecting bad numbers? (I mean on other blogs).

        Also, I heard Ron Walker has his Facebook page taken down. Any news on why? Are TPTB watching his bearish calls and decided to send him message? Remember what happened last year to BAM Investors? Someone deleted their email list. Ron is pretty popular on the net, so I’m sure he’s being watched… just like I am.

        Let me know if you find out anything about that. I like Ron, and hope he gets it all fixed.

        • Red, what evidence do you have that you are being “watched” by the TPTB? Have “they” ever approached you? Every site gets a few trolls in the forum/comments section, but do you have anything else?

          • They watch all the sites I’m sure. As for mine, I’m sure they have posted here as trolls. I have my reasons for believing so… just trust me on that one! All sites are monitored by Big Brother.

          • Actually if you read some of the latest FCC power grab trys re the internet they have essentially admitted what they are doing. Also the monitoring og cell phones has been upheld without warrant.

          • Actually if you read some of the latest FCC power grab trys re the internet they have essentially admitted what they are doing. Also the monitoring og cell phones has been upheld without warrant.

          • Actually if you read some of the latest FCC power grab trys re the internet they have essentially admitted what they are doing. Also the monitoring og cell phones has been upheld without warrant.

  33. ………sob……… this may need 1 more trading day….i guess all things worth while is worth waiting for………

  34. The traders just found another FP 127.46 on SPY – It is on my platform right now. The actual low is 127.99

    • That’s a tough one to figure out, as it’s also at the gap fill, opening price from today. Meaning that it could be just a late fill? The higher print is at gap window, and could also be a late fill?

      But the good news is that the Goldman print was very likely a “real” FP. Good job at catching it.

  35. well 1 more day red,

    friday morning is earning from JPM…..hmmmmmmm i was sure today waS A paint of the FP, one more day…..will it be 1/13/11 – what do you think??

      • the set up is sweet though – a gap up of .5% in the morning open on some made up claims number – we tag the FP and we reverse from hard from there – a great topping candle….. the next day JPM comes out with some nasty earnings and the markets reponds with the initial sell off…..

        • Sounds too easy doesn’t it? Well, maybe it will be this time? So, good data tomorrow morning, and surprise on Friday? I’m lovin’ it! (would you like fries with that?)

  36. The rally continues….. No surprises in Pomo so off we go to 1300 and beyond.. I hate to tell ya guys but as long as POMO is with us the market will rise. Of course we will see normal pullbacks but the trend is up. Don’t fight the FED. It will hurt your wallet. I think next week we will see some downside. Seasonals
    bad next week.

  37. XOM is just about to hit it’s 2 year high 77—–just in time for dow 11,800 and then a pullback. earnings are going to be good next week, but what about outlook?
    And can JPM beat the street by 12%—that’s what it has to do, in order to get to 48–it’s last high

  38. Red,

    What I do not understand is why pension funds and investors would continue to invest in the very companies that have choosen to defraud and continue to defraud them using their off balance sheet liabilities. The FED and US govermnet are complicit in their actions, which is unconscionable .

    Regardless of the “Recovery”, the markets will return and perhaps penetrate the lows in March of 2009. The Million, Billion, or Trillion dollar question is when!

  39. Today is 261 days from 4-26 high. This is the number of the exit as the lead character in 127hours drives to the national park. Only divisible by 3 and 9 with the remainders 29 and 87. Of course, I believe it was 4-25 the day he drives past it. But the movie goes on to May 1.

  40. Red,
    red,
    robert has a thesis of “don’t fight the fed and POMO”. Looking at the money flows, we all know that the government/fed money is the only real reason for this equity market – so with all these buyers of stocks since july of last year front running the fed – if you wait too long, who are you going to sell to?? accumulation right to the bitter end of june?? REALLY…..i think smart participants know this, and know the food riots happening now has handcuffed the fed’s ability for QE3, and we will be seeing distribution now rather than never ending blind accumulation…..

  41. Jobless Claims up more then expected by 35,000… but the most the market can sell off is about 3 points on the ES futures! LOL! Talk about a controlled market, they got this market wrapped so tight it can’t sell off a penny without Fed approval.

    • Odds are the highest that it will hit today, as the 15 minute chart is looking like to come back up from being oversold and go positive. The should push the market up to the print.

      But, by the end of the day, I expect the 60 minute chart to finally roll over into negative territory… which means that it’s not likely to happen tomorrow. Today has the best odds.

    • Not sure I understand the question? Do you mean the specialists on the Main Stream Media (MSM)? The msm is there to get the sheep to invest there money in the casino so the house can take it.

      They rarely, if ever, speak negatively of a company. When they do, the bottom in the market is near. Remember, they are paid to be on TV, and their bosses own most of the companies they analyze.

      As for those that “specialize” in certain sector or area, they are getting paid by the sheep to invest the sheep’s money (mutual fund companies, etc…).

      These specialists may or may not know about the fact that the market is rigged (most don’t know, that’s why those companies will lose money for the sheep in bear markets). Regardless, they get paid for their “advice” and make money through “bonus”… that they set of course.

      So they pump themselves up as “specialists” in whatever area they cover, but most sheep would stand a better chance of making money by simply investing in the company they work for, as opposed to paying these clueless specialists to invest it for them.

      If the specialists would get paid like lawyers, then they would go broke. Imagine if your mutual fund company only got paid 25% of your profit. Since most people lost half their money in the 2008 crash, many funds would have went under.

      Yet gangsters like Goldman Sachs pays out record bonuses by using YOUR money (without you giving it to them) through bailout programs to manipulate the market, so they can steal the money you actually did put in the market.

      That “flash crash” was done to steal all the sheep’s money. They seen all the “stops” in at lower levels and decided to go down there and hit those stops… therefore stealing that profit from the poor sheep who thought they were slowing gaining back some of what they lost in 2008.

      There are “specialists” in every walk of life. Some are needed, and others are worthless. Take people like “Dr. Phil” on TV, who makes tons of money telling you how to solve your problems.

      Too me… a total scam! If I have a problem I need fix, I’ll ask an old wise man (or woman) that has been through the same problem. I’ll learn a lot more from them then a quack.

      But to answer your question… the “specialists” are just out to make a buck from the sheep, and I don’t think have have any purpose or role in “helping rig the market”, as most get paid to advise… not make a profit for the sheep.

  42. Red I saw a Fake Print of about $142-$143 on GS last night on ThinkorSwim on my Iphone. It is gone now, but that would be slightly more than a 61.8% fib retrace from the July low to the current high from last week. If the top is in or in a week or two, that would make sense. That implies a market pullback of at least somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% or more.

    • Thanks Skaps..

      That’s the same one that DeeDee caught too, be was also unable to get a screen shot of it. That should be the downside target for GS once Wikileaks releases it’s data (whenever that happens?).

  43. From the looks of the 15 and 60 minute charts, it looks like they may decide to keep the 15 in negative territory all day and dip the 60 negative too… therefore allowing a push up tomorrow as both charts could be pointing back up for tomorrow (assuming the 60 just barely goes negative and rolls back up the last hour of the day).

    Since most crashes happen on Friday’s and Monday’s, tomorrow could pop higher at the open, and fall back down into the close, putting in a nice topping candle on the daily, (and hitting our FP of course too).

    If this happens, then something negative could come out over the weekend and cause a gap down on Monday, followed by a lot of selling the rest of the week.

    The bulls will be trapped, and the bears won’t be onboard. as the squeeze up to the FP will shake most of the them out (whether that happens today or tomorrow doesn’t matter).

    I know that the Fed’s are pumping more money into the system, but I think the FP is more important then the POMO schedule. It’s there to distract us sheep, as everyone has now caught on to the idea that as long as POMO exists the market will go higher.

    You know the old saying, once the masses know about it, it doesn’t work anymore. POMO or No POMO, that FP on DIA is still valid until proven otherwise.

    If we hit the FP tomorrow, I’ll be getting short. If I lose my money next week on another push higher, then so be it. I’ll live. But the rituals I’ve seen (through these FP’s) have been accurate in the past, and I see no reason for it “not to work” this time.

    So if I’m wrong, then they win again. But if I’m right, “something” will be released/staged (aka… False Flag) over the weekend, causing Monday to be a very ugly day.

  44. Sorry about that everyone… I did put up a temporary site about 15 minutes ago (www.WereLive.TV), but now we’re finally back. Yippee!

    Go read the site for an explanation. If this happens again, check my twitter and facebook account for updates.

    • Red,

      As of two minutes ago when going to your main page, I get re-directed to your support page. I had to click on the Weekend Update link you provided in the support page to get here. Let’s hope this all works out, cause we all know it’s a critical time!

      • i second that thought johnny…it is a critical time – and it is interesting the TIMING of this outage….hmmmm…kinda makes you wanna look over your shoulder just to see if a big black van is following you…………..

  45. Gang, I put up the http://reddragonleo.com/support site thinking that it was only the home page that people couldn’t access. But, it was the entire domain name.

    My hosting company worked on it hard, and finally fixed the issue. They some how had it setup that only my IP address could access the site.

    I put another temporary support site up at http://www.werelive.tv and it was up during the time that the entire domain of reddragonleo.com was down.

    I’m going to leave the redirect index.html up the rest of the day, so everyone will know what happened. I’ll take it down before tomorrow, and hopefully everything will be back to normal.

    • thanks red for putting in the effort to get the site up and running. i, for one, greatly appreciate this site and your due diligence! you are the best!

  46. red,

    markets closed on monday for martin luther king….. so if the FP hits tommorrow, we will have 3 days before the markets open…..something to think about and something that makes you go “hmmmm”………..

  47. Alot of talk about a ‘Crash’…..honestly, I hope they do, but look at history…NO CRASHED come from overbought markets…..they come from oversold markets.

  48. I finally figured out what’s wrong with BVN—its PERU!
    49-50 is the target price for this year—not the support price! The support price is probably 10% lower, from today’s close.

      • its all to coincidental to not be perpously caused, I think. When people question or call out certain things about the government, you bet the’re going to “take measures”. I appreaciate your courage Red! (and Zstok7)

        • I just wonder why they picked on “The Chart Pattern Trader” (Ron Walker), as he doesn’t talk about them like I do. But, I guess him telling everyone about the technical picture could hurt their ability to get more bulls onboard to rob. So, the shut down his Facebook page… I guess “they” did it?

          • seems to me he is a hamper on their number one financial tool, dont you think? Sad to see them discredit technical analysis.

          • Ron is smart guy, and I’ve learned a lot about TA’s watching his video’s. I only wish that TA still worked. But everyone on this blog already knows that the market is manipulated, and TA is worthless during these “heavily manipulated” time periods.

            Problem is, once TA start working again, how do you know that you can finally trust it again? Just as soon as it works for several weeks, and gets to a “big turn”… bam, they come in again and keep the turn from happening.

            I can’t tell you how many calls that Ron made (and many others too, including myself) that a certain level is where the market should roll over, only to see it rally up past it… totally dis-crediting what the charts say.

            It’s very frustrating! Especially for Ron, as that’s what he’s known for… Technical Analysis! While I try to cover the TA’s too, I’m more know for covering the “Darkside” of trading… aka, the “Manipulation” that goes on behind the scenes.

            But, I’m sure Ron has a large audience of video viewers, so they needed to mess with him a little too I guess? Why stop at “only” picking on the “red pill takers” like me… might as well go after the “blue pill takers” as well (like Ron… although I think he’s tasted the red pill… LOL).

    • let’s hope that is the case….market momentum is fading faster than a pair of jeans in a tub of bleach…..

  49. red,

    this waiting game is pure art form! i have been so patient my butt officially hurts now…. we are so close now.. HOD so far 117.43

  50. pssst, RED can’t pimp out his own site (or the great eye of Google shall smite he) and remind y’all to visit some sponsors, but I can remind you, know what I mean?

    • LOL… Steveo! Yes, it’s hard to make any money on your blog with ad’s. I put up some that I thought would be interesting… like the one’s here to the right.

      But I guess no one likes to take surveys, as only one person completed one of the 3 surveys banners. They are very targeted ad’s and deal directly with what we talk about on this site (Wikileaks, the economy, the tea party).

      That one puzzled me, as to why more people didn’t take at least one of those surveys? But, such is life! I’ll guess have too try and make my living off the market (does anyone have a spare room I can live in when I go broke?).

    • The 60 minute chart is just now at the zero line on the MACD, so I do still expect it to go up into the close today. Don’t about about FAS, but I suspect it will go higher to, as JPM and GS are rocking today.

  51. They’re going to “pump this” into the close… I can just feel it. They’ll get close to 1300 spx, maybe tagging it on one quick stop sweep, or just fall short of it… which would leave the bulls thinking about “Bullish Monday” all weekend.

    Of course Monday is a holiday for the market here in the US, but the rest of the world will be open. I don’t know what they got planned, but if that FP is hit at the close today, then Tuesday should be a very ugly day for the bulls!

  52. Tunisian president left the county…food prices started the revolution…watch China raise interest rates over the weekend to curb inflation (in food prices and otherwise)…Gold sell off may be confirming this scenario…
    Does this equal lights out for bulls over 3 day weekend?

    • It sure sounds like “lights out” to me! The VIX is now at 15.58! Whole Cow! Talk about a perfect opportunity to rob the bulls, this weekend makes one. I don’t know “what” the event might be, but something wicked is coming.

    • I’m going for February puts. The strike will depend on your risk tolerance, but 5 to 10 points lower then the current level is what I’m looking at.

      Remember, “if” a big move happens, the VIX will rise too… which helps with any time decay. If she falls apart over the weekend, we could easily see a 5 point drop (50 spx) by the end of next week.

  53. Do you all know why it never crashed in the past when I would put up a “Black Monday” or Black Friday” post?

    Answer: I got the day wrong… it should have been “Black Tuesday”!

  54. With all seriousness…..the market may have crashed 1 or 2 times in its entire history from ‘overbought’ conditions. Calling for a crash is ‘at best’ a less than 1/1000th of 1% probability…thats just plain math !

  55. “If” we do top here and tank next week, today will be looked upon as a typical day… with NO news or indication of the disaster that followed it the next week.

    We of course, will be some of the few who knew months in advance of the final top price level. Of course the “insiders” will have known, as they always know. But this should mark the first time that a lot of us “sheep” knew too!

    I’m excited, scared, and anxious… how about you?

    • Way to complacent over 3 day weekend, especially, when all other markets are trading on Monday…if this is not “staged” I don’t know what is…
      Anyway, gold bugs are lot smarter that people are giving them credit…the fact that gold is selling off speaks volumes to me…my put collection is completed today, waiting mostly in cash, until I see that 50 point move on S&P

  56. Trading is an odd game…..taking a bet on 1/1000th of 1% chance of anything happening is like feeding the money and watching him shit

  57. zzb….you missed the numbers wildly. 1/1000th of 1%…..thats a far cry from 1%. Think about it…there are only 3 times that I can think of where the market crash from very overbought conditions….Oct. 1987, July 1998 and April 2010….outside of those, any major crash has been from overold conditions.

  58. Heres my take….I’m a market structure guy. The market is setup exactly like the pre Jan ’10 sell-off and the pre April 2010 crash. If we follow those examples, then indeed we are setup for minimum 10% ‘quick’ correction starting as early as next Wednesday. On the other hand, the market arguably looks like pre 1994 massive run UP. Lastly, if you compare US markets to Japan markets after ZIRP, we should be at/near ultimate top which will never again be seen…..

    • After the market crashes over the next couple of years, you will see a rally that will take the Dow to 20-30,000, as Hyper-Inflation kicks in. At the same time, gold will go to 3500.

  59. Does DIA HOD 117.77 mean anything? We just pulled back – skeptical of final push up to 118.16… just waiting.
    As far as Feb puts are you looking at 124 or lower? I was thinking 126…

    • The 126’s are the safer bet’s and the 121’s are the wildcard’s. Depends on your risk tolerance. I think we’ll hit the 106 SPY FP before a really good bounce… but will that happen before those puts expire in February? I don’t know?

      • Maybe March options?
        If you add those numbers together 117.77 – maybe it equals 1 + (1+7) or 8 & 7+7 = 14 so 18.14 pretty close to 18.16… dang I am searching! LOL

        • March is much safer, as you could go to the 121 level and still have time if things didn’t go as planned. Of course you would bail out way before that… should everything go as planned.

    • Yes Jim, let’s hope they push this puppy up just a little more into the close. I really don’t want to set out over the weekend, not knowing if we are “close enough” today, and not be short going into Tuesday. I think we’ll get it though…

    • Looks like you’ve done well Blaine. Congrats! While I don’t dismiss your ability to trade, I only say that “trading” hasn’t been the same the last few years. Every since the print press has been running 24/7 this market has been extremely manipulated.

      Many people lost their shirts during this fake rally. You seem to have adapted. That’s great… but I wouldn’t dis-regard these FP’s as “not important”, as that would not be wise.

      While I can’t guarantee that this is the “final top”, I do believe a strong move down will happen after this print is hit. We’ll see next week I guess? Good luck to you… if you decide to stay long?

      • zstock7…..I like a quite site.

        Its one thing to ‘document history’ which is what I see on your site. Maybe I missed something ?

        I show my history in real time !

  60. palms sweaty here……. last little squiggles up will put us where we told was the top of the market…..red, i think your gut instinct is correct, they will be pushing this thing right to end of day and we will close near HOD… time to make some trades…..

    • We are forming another bull flag on the 5 and 15 minute charts now. So, does it play out today, or Tuesday? Oh… and the high of the day on the DIA is now 117.77 (as DeeDee caught).

      Hmmm… is that close enough? It’s a nice ritual number to end with. Remember the Unstoppable 777 Train? Could this be it?

      • red,

        in terms of price we have the FP, but in terms of time on jan. 19th we will be .618 time fib of the A corrective wave. We may float have to float – similar to last jan…….we will see…

  61. jimhobson…..YBR is his proprietary prediction….nothing to do with the FED/Bernanke….if I understand your comments correctly.

  62. Ok gang, I’m now short. Don’t know if we get one more push higher or not? The charts looks ready to rollover, so I’m not going to worry about a few more cents. Good luck to us all…

  63. The Dow topped out in this area on January 14,2000 which coincidentally was a Friday before Martin Luther King weekend. This week gives a similarity to the week of April 23. Massive puts bought today in SP100: 22000+ to 6000+calls while the equity put to call ratio was reversed in the other direction. Muni funds/bonds breaking down to new lows. Silver to new multi week lows with Gold dropping furthur below its 50 day average.

    48 trading days from August 25 to November 4 high….48 tds later is today. 470tds to 3-6-9 low and 822tds to 2007highs. (Angelie Jolie takes train 822 from Paris to Venice in the Tourist and the Madoff character AP owes 744million in taxes)

    • It’s also the Bear Grit number of weeks from October 11,2007 highs. Another remake of a TV series from the 1969 era is released today: Green Hornet. The Jets fulfilled their 1969 Superbowl destiny last week against the Colts. It would be the ultimate upset if they defeat the Patriots this week.

      • The Nasdaq continued to make highs until March. The only thing I don’t like is that the daily RSIs are too high and that the market could go higher and top out on lower RSIs. The $rut and dow are at acceptable levels but $spx and nasdaq aren’t. Commodities have been topping out on lower RSIs.

  64. eur/dollar currency. on my demo acct it showed an fp down to 3200 area. but on my real acct it didnt go down that far. so dont know if it will get there.

    hey redd how do i post a picture here?

  65. The MLK trade worked as advertised. Pomo kicked in at lunch and we rallied. What a beautiful week. Sold all my longs today into strenth. We are in the 1300 area and the risk reward for me is too risky. I have rode this monster up for awhile now and it’s time to lock profits. I am expecting some weakness next week and hopefully the bears get a bone or two. Have a great weekend Red.

      • I don’t think that’s the same symbol/chart that Chris C. has on this FP chart. It’s showing 3200 as a low on the FP (according to Chris), so I’m not sure how that matches up… unless he meant 32.00, and dropped the 1… which would be 132.00?

        Chris… you still there? What time frame is this chart? Daily, 60 minute, etc…? What is the exact symbol too?

  66. hey redd its the eur versus the dollar on the currency market. that fp can be seen on any time frame from the daily down to the one minute chart. the one i mailed you is the one minute chart. the price would be 1.3200 area. can you post it so everybody can see? i think next week will be a very down week. from what we have seen. hope im wrong on that one as i dont like for our economy to go to shits.

  67. red,

    i was just thinking – martin luther king day is on jan.17 or 117. that dia print was 117.77 …… Am i just over thinking this putting meaning where there is no meaning///

  68. red,

    the last time jan 17th was a monday was in 2005 (2+5 =7). On this day the leader of china Zhao Ziyang dies at 7 am in the morning. LOL that makes 117.77 you thing another world leader might die on this 117.77??

    • That’s pretty wild Richie… lot’s of coincidences recently. I don’t know if “something” will happen or not over the weekend, but I think we came close enough to the FP for it to be considered “fulfilled”.

      The first major FP I got back in January of 2010 was for a 97 point drop on the spx. It showed a print of 1047.20 (spx), and 3 weeks later it hit 1044.50, piercing it by 2.70 points, or about 27 cents on the SPY (1/10th the value of the spx…. approcimately).

      Today, the DIA hit 117.77, which is 39 cents from the 118.16 FP. Is that close enough? I think it could be, which is why I went short at the close. If it goes higher on Tuesday, and nothing happens over the weekend, I’ll just wait it out.

  69. Red – I think it would be pretty hilarious if some quants picked up your short signals, which are being noticed by people from coast-to-coast, and actually drove them to swamp the market on Tues.
    Anyway, when is the last time you got an upward print?

      • Actually, yes. An upside print that supports the downside prints. Interesting. I guess we shall see…

        Don’t see how an actual crash can happen, but maybe just the beginning of “the” downward movement. Even the 87 crash started the week before. But who knows? There is so much absolute control over equities (which are being pumped) and commodities (that are being suppressed), that just about anything is possible.

        Just be prepared for the “Thought Police” to break down your door and blame you for causing the crash! The markets have gone more crazy than I ever thought possible.

      • Hey Red — It seems like so long ago we saw the fake print on DIA. Now, we’re nearly there! I really do think we hit it as we chop around next week. I do not expect any sort of downside push until after opex.

        I have been (unleveraged) long in my 401K since Jun 8th. It might be time to reduce risk exposure and hide in short term gov’t securities and bonds for a while.

        Some charts ($RUT) are showing activated IHS patterns. The most downside a bear can really expect is a back-test of the necklines. IMO, of course.

          • I don’t expect it until the week after next, if it really does happen. Big plunges don’t seem to happen until after January opex.

            Look at a weekly chart of $RUT dating back to 2008. I see a neckline at 750. That was also the April 2010 highs. My bullish biased expectation is for a 6-7% correction in $RUT back to the neckline then another explosive move up. Although it seems insane, the IHS target is 1150 for $RUT.

            Still trying to think of a bearish-biased scenario, but having some trouble with a target.

    • Studying the chart – in a longer view – looks like it may be forming the right shoulder of an IH&S with the right shoulder being back in June… I hope I am wrong and it doesn’t confirm.

    • Hello there Dee, I use different settings of the MACD as a guide. I notice there is almost always weakness before a plunge, they are not showing any weakness yet. Hopefully they will start to curl down beginning tuesday and start a nice downturn. I just dont see it yet. I’m getting so tired of seeing the bs, I dont know about you? Anyway, my conclusion matches Dans.

  70. I’d looooove to see this market roll over though. Like little Toby at the hot dog stand. LOL. Sorry, it was a little slow so I could not resist.
    Dont drink and blog! Or Red will make me to go over to marketWatch.

    • Most of the surge in commodities is driven by China and speculation. And the BDI is falling because there is no demand from anywhere else.

    • I’ve been watching BDI closely, there was even fake print Zero Hedge was making fun off (Red has it)…I think we are near half way point to fake print, since it was reported (already???)

      CNBS is taunting BDI in 2009 as sign of recovery, no one has mentioned anything about falling off the cliff now…commodities are bubble…some companies were using commodities trade as a hedge, to real business ups and downs, they are now commodity trading for profit, thus, commodities are bubble…BDI is correct, there is no real trade to support equity prices, nothing is moving according to some export / import bloggers. I can’t wait for BDI in 3 digits, and watch the panic in equities…popcorn anyone? BTW, don’t buy added capacity BS…inventories are building up at suppliers, supporting nothing is moving argument. Commodity low due in March 2011, not too far away…

  71. well red, its MLK day. Will we get eerie “quiet” or will something happen to spook the markets??? Only time will tell…..

    • I read that this morning Richie, and I’m putting it in my new post and video. Thanks for catching it and posting it (just in case I miss it, as I can’t see everything… LOL).

      I’m also using the other link you posted yesterday Richie. Another good catch.

      🙂

  72. Red,

    We may have hit the FP in the futures last night….not sure. Anyhow, I think it was fairly close.

    It will be interesting this week. All those calls need to be erased before OPEX.

    • Steve Jobs on health leave – and AAPL earnings after the bell tomorrow. They usually run up and then tank after earnings. Maybe we should have bought puts in the Q’s as this is a double whammy don’t you think?

  73. New post is now up everyone…

    P.S. This comment I’m now making is comment number 6661. What happens when I make comment number 6666? Will the fraking top finally be in? Man I hope so!

  74. Other blogs are showing AAPL down as much at 8-11% in Germany, one said $322 which is more like 7 1/2% … I don’t have a way to check that. Tthe NASDAQ futures down 30+. Tomorrow could be sweet.

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