Weekend Update – A Hair Away From Topping!

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Wednesday Update:  Our FP on the DIA of 118.16 has been hit and is now fulfilled.  Primary Wave 2 is likely done now.  Welcome to Primary Wave 3!

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHrxp4rwpPQ)

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Monday Update... FP Hit, Now What?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srLE1UrVBag)

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So close, but no cigar! But are we playing horseshoes?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrXnBX003VI)

Friday's close at 117.77 DIA was disappointing, as I really expected it to tag our upside target of 118.16 and then open on Tuesday with a nice gap down. While that's still possible, the odds are against it... from a historical point of view. All most all of the cases in the past, that had a long white solid candle pattern, had at least a quick break up above the close on the next day the market was open.

Which means that the odds are that the next candle will go above the current closing price at some point in the day. While we could still open down a little, it is likely that the market will rally back past the 117.77 level and go above it at least a little bit.

In almost all cases, this has happened. So, what we are now looking for is a quick gap up (to the 118.16 level hopefully) and then a sell off the rest of the day, putting in a long "topping tail" candle pattern.  Will it happen like that?  Who knows?  Odd's are against it...

I did go short anyway, as we were so close that FP, that I didn't want to chance a gap down on Tuesday without being short. I know we didn't hit the target exactly, and I'll probably be kicking myself next week for not waiting for a better spot... but I'll survive.

Regardless of not catching the exact top, next week is a bull's worst nightmare... at least from a historical point of view. I'll refer you to Cobra's chart on that, as he does great work with prior data, and history.

Everything is now lining up perfectly for a very nice sell off in the market.  From every Technical point of view, to historical data, put/call extreme ratio's, sentiment reading, and of course the FP on the DIA... it all spells "TANK", which should make every bull worried.

I've actually been pretty well disciplined the last several weeks, as I've set out all this sideway garbage (which would have killed any option's players like myself).  While I still expect the DIA print to be hit, I just couldn't risk the the possibility that  I've given it too much exposure, and the print not being hit this time... so I caved in and went short (kicking myself if we go higher on Tuesday).

Anyway, this hasn't been easy on the bears, in fact many bears have fallen prey to the evil bear hunter Elmer Bernanke, who used too hunt only rabbits, but move up to larger game after finally killing bugs bunny I assume.

But, some did survive... and I am one of them.  While wounded, I'm still alive (and hungry), and I've learned enough to avoid being shot by the evil hunter.  The hunter has now entered bear territory and I believe he's running out of bullets.  Next week we bears will make a sneak attack on the hunter, and hopefully shove that shotgun of his up his you now what!

Looking at the news, Richie caught a very interesting article that may confirm my suspicions on Wikileaks.  As I'll stated previously, I think that the gangsters either fully control Wikileaks, or are using them to release damaging data on a timeline that marks the top of the market.

While I still don't know whether Julian Assange is a hero (if so, he's also be a "patsy" for new laws to censor the internet), or a plant by TPTB?  Either way, the release of the data seems likely to happen at the top of the market as I expected.

This article "could be" the "event" we've all been waiting for... to tank the market!  You should always remember too be cautious of any and all news that is reposted heavily in the Main Stream Media (msm), as that area is still in control by TPTB (the powers that be).

Since Wikileaks has gotten a ton of news media coverage by the MSM, you should have your "Dangling Carrot" eyes open, as the MSM is there for one purpose... to distract you, mis-inform  you, and mis-lead you.  There is always a hidden agenda behind what they tell the sheep watching.

Remember, George Soro's his helping Julian Assange with legal fee's and funding Wikileaks.  It's hard too stay clean (Wikileaks) when you are rolling around in the mud with the pigs (George Soro's).  But for now, I'm going to give Assange the benefit of the doubt, and still say that he's a HERO (but not a bright one... if he doesn't know he's being used).

For us traders though, we just need to focus on the FP's and try to tie them together with the possible news events that could trigger the next sell off to happen.  In this case, it's looking likely to be Wikileaks and not a "false flag" event (like a nuclear bomb... aka "the Simpson Video").

I'm much happier that it's just some economic event and not a physical one, as I don't want to see people die for the market to sell off like it needs too.  Instead, I'd love to see the gangsters exposed and hopefully arrested, convicted, and publicly hung for crimes against humanity.  (Wishful thinking here)  Although it does say something in the bible about people losing their heads in the end time, I think? (could be wrong on that?  Maybe that was a Nostradamus prediction?)  Let's hope it's the banksters and not the sheep.

Anyway, we are now within 39 cents of hitting the FP on the DIA.  I expect it to be hit next week (probably Tuesday), and for the top to finally be in.  This should end the Primary wave 2 up from the March 6th, 2009 low of 666 on the SPX.  What follows should the the nastiest move down in the history of the stock market... even surpassing the first Great Depression in 1929!

Once it finally bottoms in the coming years, I expect hyper-inflation to rocket this market up well beyond the current high, probably hitting 20-30,000 on the Dow... while Gold hits our FP of 3500!  But, that's a few years away from now.  Looking more short term, I'm expecting a nice move down next week... how far, I don't know?

There are a lot of people long in this months' coming expiration next Friday, which leads me to believe it will be at least the 1260 area, if not 1240.  I can't see them paying off all those calls, as you know how they like to pen the market at a level that they pay out the least amount of people... both on the calls and the puts.

While I don't know the numbers of calls/puts, to determine the "maximum pain" level, I do expect it to be much lower then the current closing price on the spy.  All I can say is that everything favors the bears next week.  If we fail here, then it's clearly never going to go down! (Kidding there... you know it will correct at some point).

This will be tough on the bears though, as we all know how they like to fool us.  They sell off just enough to get the bears licking there chops, thinking that it's going to crash... and BAM, squeeze time!  So just be sure to exit your shorts when you get a nice profit, which should be at some good support level too.  You can always re-enter later.

This could play out with a small correction down next week, and then back up into the Legatus Pilgrimage date... followed by a much larger move down.  So be prepared for some wild swings, and don't get married to your shorts.  Exit with a profit, and don't wait for "the big one", as you'll likely be whipped out before it happens.

I'll let everyone know when I exit as well.  I'll be looking at the charts to tell me when the market is heavily oversold and due to rally.  I expect that it will end the coming week down nicely, which will be a nice exit point before the coming weekend.  You know how they like to trap bears on a "rare" Friday sell off, by squeezing them out the following Monday.

So, should we sell off most of next week, and into Friday too, I'll likely exit my shorts before the weekend.  Nothing goes straight down, especially in the early stages of a correction.  When we hit the Wave 3's of 3's of 3's... then yeah, it's going straight down!  But until then, be on the cautious side and take profits when given.

Good luck bears....

Red

LINKS:

Bob Chapman Newsletter Jan 15,2011 – Slush Fund of top politicians found at Vatican Bank, Obama, Clinton, Roberts? Legatus split!

http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2011/01/17/bob-chapman-newsletter-jan-152011-slush-fund-of-top-politicians-found-at-vatican-bank-obama-clinton-roberts-legatus-split/

Swiss whistleblower Rudolf Elmer plans to hand over offshore banking secrets of the rich and famous to WikiLeaks

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jan/16/swiss-whistleblower-rudolf-elmer-banks?cat=media&type=article

Lindsey Williams Returns: Get Ready for $5 a Gallon Gasoline!  Alex Jones Tv (Sunday Edition) 1/2 (NEW INFORMATION)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noegMFZVzw0&feature=player_embedded

Lindsey Williams Returns: Get Ready for $5 a Gallon Gasoline! - Alex Jones Tv (Sunday Edition) 2/2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3i6UP4ZGXg

NOTES:

107 million ounces of physical Silver (as of now... January, 2011)

720 million ounces contracts out on Silver (again, as of now... currently)

On 01/07/11, 4 different "super wealth" people withdrew 4 million ounces of Silver (1 million each person) from the Comex Silver Exchange

First 12 days of January the us mint sold 3,407,000 ounces of Silver!  Record Sales!  Sales increased 50%!

Quote:  "It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Silver was $50.00 an ounce by February the 1st" (Lindsey Williams)

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On another note, several people caught this print showing that the FP of DIA 118.16 could have been fulfilled?

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348 COMMENTS

  1. red,

    other than steve jobs – it is eerily ‘quiet’ out there on this MLK day….i can hear a pin drop! i dunno – the hairs on the back of my neck are tingling…….

    • good article…the way in which i ‘decode’ these types of articles is simple…..if the chinese leader boldly stating they are moving toward being the reserve currency far in the future – “MEANS” they have already completed what is necessary and the transfer is 6 months away…. ..5.1% controllable chinese inflation MEANS 20% runaway uncontrollable inflation… so expect to see the yuan the reserve currency in 6 months and the revaluation will reverse the tremendous inflation china has been expereinceing…

    • why do my charts reflect the high at 11794.10 with the close at 11787.40 – that chart says close price adjusted for splits and dividends – interesting and I like that we hit the FP
      thanks

      • its a link from yahoo.finance downloaded from a history sheet. Its like incorrect date lol some sort of fp:)) if you look at chart its not the same high as a numeral date.

  2. Alot of people think we are doomed, but there are still great ways to make money. Even while the economy is collapsing around us.

    I subscribe to the guy from australia and his FFT economic newsletter at http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com that guy has called many big events before they have happend, including the stock market crash in 2008 and the current financial collapse of the US. (currently happening) I found him from a friend last year, and he has some important work.

    His oil calls are insane, and I have been making good money with them. He is well worth a look, if you want to keep two steps ahead of the sheeple out there.

    I am worried about my financial future. Is anyone else nervous out there?

  3. Red, here is the summary of my info collection from various Gann traders …Most have Jan 19th as a turnaround date (always give few days around the date)… few are saying, this year will be “V” likely with year bottom, late May, June to early July….bounce into Sep, maybe somewhat down into end of the year (but higher than mid year lows)…Some can’t believe they are saying we can see March 2009 lows this year, but that what they are seeing…So I think, given 5 waves down, we should see the worse by the end of March, early April…I’m long April –June puts, will add as move is confirmed…so Dow 8300 by end of March, early April…IMHO…thank for sharing you FPs, if we turnaround today or tomorrow, I’ll be a full convert…LOL
    Gann trader are not perma bull or bears, but at this time, there isn’t a single bull, all are very bearish…

  4. How about those gangsters? They keep the S&P under 1300 to not allow the bears a good point to short, but yet take it screaming past the 118.16 DIA. Gotta give it to them, they do a good job stealing! Let’s see if we reverse from here. (I sure hope so, cause if not my wife will kill me! LOL!)

  5. Massive dollar manipulation today, as though Europe’s problems just went away. Just an attempt at a shakeout. They went slightly lower than the low prints also.

  6. That’s all she wrote folks!! we can now focus on the two downside FP’s RED has – 8300, and a 345 FP VIX, a $13 GS FP, and a ………

    • remember the FP indicates a script,,, the whole markets are scripted.. there is nothing random about them….. see it for what it is. We overshot the FP to 118.34 on momentum, and already we have backed off…..

    • i think clifff diving on the full moon is most fun! tommorrow is a full moon – who knows…. today will be a good looking topping candle

      • thx for reminding me of the full moon tomorrow. given that we’ve not had any sort of pullback for 2 full moons, it’s likely today will close out at it’s highs, and that’ll be the top for this cycle. I’d actually like to see a big day today as it would almost solidify my theory.

  7. Red, I was thinking about your thoughts on the market crash and then later Hyperinflation possibly in a couple years. While that is one path, I’m trying to keep open to others. I really think your FP’s on gold will tell the path.

    From where we are at today, if we go down and hit the 935 FP on gold first, then yes, it sets up a scenerio for hyperinflation.

    However, I can see a scenerio where we get a market crash, political turmoil, and possibly war creates a rush to safety of gold/silver (thus pushing it up to 3500/84) – in particular with a VIX print of 349.

    After all that settles down, no consumers will have money left and we continue with the deleveraging that should be happening now. To our final low of ??? SPY 20 something (or is there a FP in the 10’s now?) and gold of 935.

  8. Sorry gang, I had to run some errands this morning. Looks like we hit our FP and went past it a hair. Now we wait, and see if she pulls back off.

    The 60 minute chart is rolling over now, so we could put in a nice topping candle on the daily if we go negative the rest of the day. Patience is the key now, as everyone else is still expecting 1300 and 12,000… which again, I think won’t happen.

    But I’ve been wrong before, so use your “mental” stop wisely.

  9. Sorry gang, I had to run some errands this morning. Looks like we hit our FP and went past it a hair. Now we wait, and see if she pulls back off.

    The 60 minute chart is rolling over now, so we could put in a nice topping candle on the daily if we go negative the rest of the day. Patience is the key now, as everyone else is still expecting 1300 and 12,000… which again, I think won’t happen.

    But I’ve been wrong before, so use your “mental” stop wisely.

  10. IF there is a ‘script’ and if there are ‘ganstas’…..then would GS not be with them ? I mean, they are the bag holder for all the FED intervening activity in March 09…..they are the ones who were ‘saved’. We msut agree The FED must show a pretty good profit on all its intervention, at least publically. Therefore, they cannot sell assets (which they hold in a big way) at depressed prices….conseuqently evevated prices can and should be sustained in their minds eye.

    • I do not agree. Increasing debt from 9.5 trillion to ov13 trillion and GDP increase only 180 billion which almost nothing does not sound like a successful investment.

  11. AAPL and IBM AH earnings.
    My bet is they both beat. There just does not seem to be anything to help us bears.

    • jim,

      do you question ‘WHY’ apple came out with JOBS new YESTERDAY, rather than announcing it during the conference call. What they have set up is a scenario whereby the entire questioning on the call will be about steve…. maybe it was a tatical distraction. maybe some margin compression will show up in there numbers after the bell which is the reason behind the early announcement. The street wants BLOW out numbers,,,maybe they only are at blow right now….? who knows….we will find out soon.. just something to think about…

      • Interesting point on Jobs. I was curious why they did not wait until after earnings. But the distraction may have been set up as you suggest.

        I am shocked that the sp has been able to sustain past 1293 fib fan

  12. From the looks of today, it appears that the DOW will close up a little and the current “low of the day” will be 11,777.99… which matches up nicely with the 117.77 DIA high last Friday. I think the “Unstoppable” train has arrived.

    Last chance to board the train to hell… all aboard!

  13. RED,

    IDIA close – 118.28 let me see (11+8 = 19) and (2+8 = 10, or rather 1) does this point to 1/19 tipping point reversal???

    • hey, makes sence. everyone else but myself went out and bought their crap. This is so strange because most people I know are hurting or are broke. Yet, these big companies who produce junk keep “surging”. Oh well. Holiday volume.

  14. Not paying a mortgage, increases discretionary income…I read blog post once, someone’s daughter working at Apple store (outside of Manhattan) said people sometimes use 3 credit cards to complete a purchase…and not a rarity…
    People in US will blow, every last bit of credit on I-crap…I’m not surprised…it’s not like banks will ever get paid anyway…look at their earnings, a la C this morning…
    Red, that turnaround better come tomorrow, or my faith in Gann traders and your FP will be gone forever…that along with any other TA, that didn’t work last year…LOL

  15. I’m finally going to have some decent short sell signals on the 15 minute charts—within the next couple of days—The overnight’s have been useless for about a month now.

  16. I’m short gasoline—never going to $5, WMT would call the president! Then the president would order shoot to kill orders at the gasoline pits. and then the gasoline pits in response, would bring the price back down.
    That’s my conspiracy theory, about that!

    • and if that didn’t work, then WMT would call the Chinese national security agency, and you’d just see gasoline pit traders, disappear on their way to work.

  17. Wow, earnings blew away estimates by a longshot. Could see a major gap and go go tomorrow. All bears should be extinct by tomorrow. Looking for a pullback starting Thurs. Don’t fight the Fed……….

    • Are you talking about AAPL? Usually rallys into earnings and sells off after – right now it is below where it traded on Friday… we will see where it goes now.

  18. I miscounted tds from August 25low to Nov 4 high. It was 49 days like I always thought but somehow it counted out differently numerous times last week. Today would then be 49tds from Nov 4 high. Thus 1(85)tds from April 26 high. 138tds (69×2) from July 1 low. So we have a sequence of 134tds from July 8,2009low to Jan 2010high. Then a high high 136tds period from April 26to Nov 4 highs and now 138tds from July low…..
    SP has also now achieved a 69%retrace of the 2007-2008 decline. 1987 B wave rally off Sept lows to early October achieved a 69% retrace….
    And the Jets juggernaut (along with the Bears, the “enlightened ones” favorite team) reprising its role from the 1969 superbowl (3 or III) by upsetting another Goliath, the Patriots (who weren’t as good as their record though….Jets really have more talent except at quarterback)…..

    Golden Globes awarded all of the “enlightened ones” favorites. Social Network swept most of the awards and Natalie Portman got the best actress award for being “The Black Swan”.

  19. I guess currency manipulation has gone 24X7. There is an obvious concerted effort to push down the dollar, even though it has the least fleas. Euro is skyrocketing like they Europeans just solved all their financial problems, cured cancer, cured AIDS, discovered cold fusion and created a perpetual motion machine, all in the last week.

    • acp,

      i find the timing between the china delegation to the US and the reversal of the (Euro/USD). it is almost as if the Usd caught the ‘asian’ flu (cough). what a grand way to show chinese dominance by arriving in the US to a ‘weak’ reserve currency. Let us see what happens to the equity markets upon Hu’s arrival – which so happens to coincide with the hitting of the FP. maybe there is ‘asian’ flu a plenty for all the markets (cough – bond/muni markets)…. “hu knows??’ Lol

      • Yes, there are some interesting coincidences…

        TODAY AGAIN, dollar manipulated like nothing else. I’ve actually never seen the dollar manipulated like this ever before, even in recent history. Supposedly, with GREAT US economic numbers, the dollar is tanking like it’s about to default. Another “never before” we can chalk up to Madman Ben.

  20. As I write this comment I have made 6665 previous comments using my Disqus handle “Red Dragon Leo”. That makes this comment number 6666, being made on 1-19-11 (911), when the Dow had a low yesterday of 11,777.99, and a high on the DIA last Friday of 117.77 (think “Unstoppable train, number 777”).

    The market also hit our FP on the DIA yesterday, and pierced it a little as expected. What does all this mean? I have no clue. It’s just odd how all this happens I guess?

    Does it mean that the final top is in, and it’s down hill from now? Could be? I personally think that “Yes”, the market has finally topped, but I won’t know it that is correct until I go back and look at this post again in the future.

    For all the bears that joined on getting short around the DIA FP level, good luck to us all….

    Red

      • you can have the next one ACP,

        either way, more and more evidence points to the validating the painting of that FP….. more like a ‘script’ than just ‘random’ markets…

        • Interesting how their read states it is the “…first sign of a reversal in the S&P since March 2009, when the indicators showed a rebound was imminent…”

          • like i said….this whole thing is playing like a SCRIPT… why announce this today? why 1/19/11? since they had their readings since 1/14? why announce at all? since they are used most by chartists and technical pros – they make money with their readings…. just makes you go hmmmm….and wanna run outside and let the sunshine! LOL

  21. EUR/USD just bounced back off the 1.35 level, which is what the forex guys were looking for to short EUR again. See if it holds…

  22. The 5 and 15 minute charts are now pointing back up. Support is now resistance around 1290 spx area. We could rally back up for awhile to work off the short term oversold conditions.

    The 60 minute chart still has more downside possible. Once the 5 and 15 reset, we could see another push down into the close? (Wishful thinking here for us bears, as even though the charts say that… they haven’t been working lately).

    So, if this really is the top in the market, then then move down could take us as low as 1280 spx today. Who knows? (crossing my fingers here).

  23. The 5 and 15 minute charts are now pointing back up. Support is now resistance around 1290 spx area. We could rally back up for awhile to work off the short term oversold conditions.

    The 60 minute chart still has more downside possible. Once the 5 and 15 reset, we could see another push down into the close? (Wishful thinking here for us bears, as even though the charts say that… they haven’t been working lately).

    So, if this really is the top in the market, then then move down could take us as low as 1280 spx today. Who knows? (crossing my fingers here).

    • red,

      my gut tells me that they will give us a full 5 waves down today – so target would be that 1280 point – with some sideways action tommorrow… that 5 min macd can just as easily turn down again and create a lower low

  24. I’m not a mathematician, but seeing all these 7s makes me think of the “rule of 7s”, which may also have something to do with turning points in the market. Such as the target retracement for a bear market rally…

  25. Any bears now in profit, should consider that we could rally back a bit tomorrow to work off the oversold conditions. So you might get a better spot to go short at? I say “might”, as we could also continue selling off too?

    But, the volume on the SPY today is still low (about 75 million right now at 1pm) which tells me that this is just a “technical sell off” today, and not a “panic sell off”.

    Until the volume surges back up above 200 million, we can (and should) expect some wild swings. Remember, they will likely shake out as many bears as they can… before the real sell off happens.

    So some profit taking is something I plan to do today, by closing some shorts and let the others ride (just in case in continues down tomorrow too?).

    The market is hitting some support now too, so that’s another reason to be cautious (if you are a bear of course). So, by the end of the day, I’ll close a small amount of shorts and look for a bounce to reload tomorrow.

    Should the bounce not happen, then the remain shorts will still be held and should increase in value. Maybe we’ll get a nice “gap down” tomorrow? Wouldn’t that be sweet?

    Anyway, just don’t expect this to go straight down without a few shakeouts. Either take some profit, or hold tight and don’t get thrown off the bull… he is dying now!

    • red,

      look at the technicals on the VIX daily. they have all ‘just’ turned up strongly. histogram on the macd is looking to want to put in some positive bars. it all just looks like this market will sell for a series of days before some kind of relief bounce and rally…. but i never know… i will watch the action till close to closing…

    • Sorry, it’s 129.53 spy…

      http://reddragonleo.com/media/fp-106-90-on-5-minute-chart-08-30-2010.jpg

      I’m not going long, but I’m out of all shorts right now. I’ll re-enter tomorrow. I don’t know if this is just a late fill or not (it doesn’t look like one), but it tell me the market is going up tomorrow.

      Besides the FP, the charts are oversold now, and need to reset back up. Use your own judgment, but I’m out now and will look to reload again tomorrow.

    • Not confident in your shorts anymore? That statistical data on Thursday looks like a dream day for bears but I guess those charts don’t account for manipulation either.

      • The 60 minute chart is oversold, and starting to hook back up. The 15 minute chart is now pointing up and about to cross the zero mark. The 5 minute will go negative shortly and reset back up within 30 minute or so.

        This allows the perfect setup for the bears to get squeezed out tomorrow on some bogus job’s data. We all know how the game is played by now. The charts only work for the bulls, not the bears… and right now they are clearly oversold.

        Add that with the new FP of 129.53 spy, and you have a short squeeze in the makings! Maybe I’m wrong, and just a little paranoid… who knows, but I’d rather be safe then sorry.

        And we are now putting in a double bottom with very light volume still. Just do the math…

  26. Well, I just can’t win. Trading software had a glitch on one of the securities I purchased and I couldn’t sell it. Lost out on some of my profit by having to call in.

  27. am not out yet red,,, am watching that VIX…it is right at the middle of the bollinger. if it rejects i will close out positions near to closing time, if it pushes through i will hang in there overnight….

      • so far, we have a break above the middle of bollinger on the VIX. if we stay above, there is a gap fill above it maybe looking to fill for today/tommorrow? – which means more selling….. will keep looking.

        • I did get out a little early today, as I was expecting only 3 waves in today’s pattern. We are now on wave 5 down (of wave 1 down), which should be ending shortly. Just be prepared for a possible wave 2 up tomorrow.

          If today took 5 waves down, then tomorrow should be an ABC (3 waves up) move.

          • thanks red, i am watching that count closely….. i will make the call in 1 hour…… but its that dumb ole VIX that is telling me to hold on…. any black bar move on the vix daily that punches through the middle bollinger and stays above always gaps up the following day….

    • So what’s the verdict? Run up into the close and sell off at the open tomorrow after a wonderful pre-market of bright futures?

      If so, I’ll be hiring a chimp to read prints and trade while I sit on the beach because the way the market works nowadays has gone completely effing nuts.

  28. well red,

    i can smell bear trap, i can see bounce written all over the short term time frames – but i am gonna hold overnight. – its that daily VIX. more times than naught, when a black bar breaks through the middle bb from the lower, the vix POPS the next day (sometimes substantially). I have to let the vix prob. lead me on this one….. and also i believe in the FP – and i believe we need to get to 8300 in short order…… say a prayer for me red – tommorrow may grind me up and may stuff me in a can of bear spam…..

  29. red,

    you just know that those names are a poison pill..errr – insurance policy… i would expect to see a few names released in short order in an agressive display to the swiss authorities…

  30. Gotta figure they are going to try another method of communicating with themselves after rdl posted the FPs on this last one.

    • nope—FP’s are here to stay. I’ve been following them for 8 years—actually longer, back when fake prints showed up as 16 3/4, or 16 1/2. and there were entire sites / industries dedicated to publishing, nothing but composite trades, that’s what they were called 8 plus years ago. So keep looking for those FP’s cause this is the only source on the internet for the time being.

        • This is how the big houses, used to transfer huge sums of money to each other. The market called them composite trades—and then Google came along, and censored the search for ” composite trades) –which leaves only Red’s site as the one and only site to get that info again.

          • Once a fake print has been filled, the big houses can tell each other they are (EVEN with each other), until there’s another “BILL DUE” and they go print another fake print, as obscure a location as they can find.
            Someone got cocky, and printed one on the DOW—-for us little guys! send him some chocalates.

  31. Wow, the tards waited until the last 2 minutes for the traditional PUMP. I guess the POMO money isn’t enough to handle all the selling any more…what with everyone being super-duper-ultra leveraged because of the Madman Put.

  32. ok – when the s&p (-13.11)ends the day off losing more points than the DOW 30 (-12.86), then you know we have just seen the top! Index divergence rules…but more importantly – FP RULES!!!!

    • FFIV has been overvalue since 118—-They beat the street, but they needed to beat by 6%… (X 4) = 24%, to stay on par with the market’s 24% growth expectations.

  33. It is opex but this seems different. Vix has not been over 10% in quite some time.

    i have little clue at this point how to read the day.

  34. Trade what ya see fellas. Weakness has arrived……. Bears got some bones today and the meal should continue for the next few days. Shorts deployed early today. Next goal is to break that 20dma. I believe I see a smile on your face Red………….

  35. If ya look at the RUT, transports and nasdaq… they were very weak today. They are supposed to lead us… should we follow? GS is also heading towards the FP – it did close slightly below the 50ma…

  36. I think the Q’s huge red candle, marked the top for this Q…Q’s In a downtrend now, Easier to short, than to go long, until FEB rally gets here. imo.
    and then there’s this! The Dow is lagging—-look for down 100 days on the Dow, while the Q just sits there. You’ve heard of rotating sectors, well this is rotating indexes.

    • I have a members only chart, that I will post here for one night–for everyone here to copy and paste, and keep in his private collection. and then I’ll take it down.—-I mathematically figured out your 1067 in the video, weeks ago,—your fake print confirms / gives me POWER NOW!

  37. Thanks for the update Red…
    Well, given the futures, and overnight session in China, I’d say Gann timing and FPs held up…As I’ve been saying before, June likely to be bottom of 2011 (and possibly lower that March 2009)…this would also match FP in gold 930… I’d say that FP of DOW 8300 should be reached in third wave or towards end of March…Soooo…don’t count on POMO boys, when job report is released on Feb 4th, and it’s obvious that Fed didn’t improve housing or jobs…
    Most of the bonds bought by Fed are new issues (like couple of weeks ago)…if they want to keep Ponzi going they have to increase debt calling fast…bad job number (along with interest rates going higher), add muni crisis and Europe…a whole a lot has to happen before April 1st…
    Red, I think you are being very bullish with 8300 later in the year…LOL…my target for that print is end of March early April, but in first half of March as well (as market if forward looking…LOL)

    • Your right… what am I thinking? I must have drank some of the bull koolaid, to think that the bottom in March/April is only 8300. I do think they will take out the March 2009 lows though… just don’t know when?

      • Wave one down… this summer support…fill in all the gaps…

        Wave three down…8300 or lower (commodity low in March , “rimes” with Nov 2008)

        Wave five down…March 2009 lows …sometimes end of May to early July…
        That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it…LOL

        Youtube Tony Robbins “economic warning” from Aug 2010 and see how his predictions are coming along…his buddy Paul Tudor Jones compared fall rally to 2000 bubble…so straight down from here…
        I’m not changing my position right now, long Apr-June puts and cash, will go fully short into Feb jobs number, maybe sooner…just to confirm this top is holding for a week or so…

  38. Red,

    For some reason, I can’t view your FP in the photo’s section (I think it’s the blockers here at work). Can you post the FP of 1060 here? Thanks.

    • well red,

      you were right about that ‘good’ claims script – you are good! i think the market will head down to about 1274 area in S&p and then bounce/reverse for a pop at around 10:30 (closing of european markets)… i will get out of short on opening and look to re-enter at better price.

  39. Red,

    Actually I was looking for the 1060ish level print that you refer to in the video, not the dia 118.16. I have to do some research, but I remember when you first received/saw that print. In the afterhours, it may have went down to that level in a “flash” after-hours crash and bounced back. So if you have that one and can you post it here? I’m basically looking for the date you received it and the level it showed. Thx!

  40. Red – you mentioned 129.53 on SPY – is that a new FP – I thought we didn’t have any higher FPs. I looked in photos and couldn’t find it???

  41. ok red,

    i am out of my short..and with it a small profit – (beer is on me), and it is looking to bounce right at 1274 as i wrote earlier (there is a net sell line at 1274.25 so it will bounce off this line as support… i think it will pop from here into friday….

    • Smart move Richie…. now we wait. Tomorrow is opx and they will likely pin the spy wherever it benefits them the most. Since the selling pressure seems too be dying right now you can expect an upward movement into the close.

      I don’t know if it will close flat or slightly down, but either way we are still likely to go up to that new FP before another big leg down. I suspect it will happen tomorrow, but they could push it off until Monday… hard to say?

      From past experience, these intraday prints play out in 1-2 days, and sometimes by the close of the day they were shown. Friday will be day 2, and that’s when I expect it to be hit. It will fool the most bears I believe, as most will not be expecting a rally up that high on Friday to happen. We’ll see…

      • red,

        that FP is awesome to know, because i think they will take it up to that level – which is much higher than most bears would expect on a ‘counter trend’ bounce. many bear might think it would be business as usual and it is on the way to melt up higher, and participating bulls will be on board…. then an event monday/tuesday that sends spy selling to that 200 million level.

      • If you look at open interest on SPY puts and calls, there’s much more open interest on puts just below where we are right now vs. calls just a little higher. Makes me think they pin it higher tomorrow, and continue you the fall next week if the TOP is indeed in.

        • Well, I’ve yet to see a FP be wrong. While we haven’t hit all the larger downside one’s yet, these smaller intraday print almost always hit within 1-2 days.

          So, tomorrow they put some more manufactured good data, along with good earnings on the major companies reporting… and Bam, it’s up we go!

  42. Wow red,

    i put on a speculative long (i feel dirty) at 1271 and put in the sell order before i left to run some errands. i came back, and sell was executed (i feel clean again), and a nice little profit….. way cool! thanks for that spy FP – now lets all concentrate on that 1060 spx level, and the 8300 dow FP.

    When you fall UP a mountain it is slow – when you fall DOWN that same mountain – well lets just say gravity is with you…. i think we will go there relatively quickly….

  43. red,

    give those charts another look quick before the end of the day. I am seeing that there may be more selling before we get this big bounce. i am seeing the short term technicals reset enough so that more selling can take place… the 30 min… macd can turn back down…. anyway i went with my gut and put some shorts back in play….

  44. Red, on my earlier comment. Check this link from ZH out: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spy-flash-crashes-nyse-cancels-500-million-worth-trades

    It appears you received your FP of SYP 106.46 at 3:15pm and then at 4:15pm that same day…well…106.46 EXACTLY –

    I’m not sure why it didn’t register with me earlier. In your videos you kept on referring to SPY 106, but I was thinking you had another one. I’d be careful about using that FP. According to the TPTB, this one might be considered filled…

      • this is freaky…but all other FPs are south from there (lower)…Right?

        I would say this more a FP confirmation that anything else…that where we are heading real soon…

        kind a scary actually, if true that market is this scripted…

        Red, maybe you should give us passwords to the blog, before your blog goes viral, it would be no good , kind of like hin—burg omen last summer, when everyone was talking about it…

        • I was thinking about the same thing the other day. At some point if too many people catch on here at Red Dragon Leo, either the TPTB will shut this site down or they will send out tons of false information to confuse those that try and use FP’s.

          Mschemeng – I think there is one FP that is higher, (QID at 4.96), but that is a very high level. (probably DOW 15K + ) – so my guess is that will get hit with hyperinflation or in like 10 years.

          • yes, FP should be good as turnaround points, but for overall market direction found that Gann followers have most sucess…EW is OK, but there is alway and alternate count, not so much with Gann…

            Few Gann traders had 19th as turnaround date…most are waithing now for move to start to give short term price and date updates…so I’m waiting too…LOL…
            In summary 5 waves down to end of May to early July bottom 2011…bounce…then Red’s real low prints for 2012… PMs will go up after June into 2013, still in bull market, but 2011 will not be a good PM year ( we need to reach FP of 930 in gold by June)…

  45. if you google ” composite trade” and some sort of weird combination of those two words—eventually you might come across a new site, that publishes every fake print for the day.
    They used to exist, but are all gone now.
    Or there may be a way to use a stock screener, to catch all of them. hi low price screen

  46. GOOG shattered earnings. AMD beat earnings.

    These two could lead the way for tech stocks tomorrow.

    OPEN down 2.18% and 1.39% in after-hours. CFO sells 6,000 shares of OPEN. How is reserving tables a 2 billion dollar business?

  47. Guys what if i say to you that is no theory of Fps as a manipulation channel and instrument of communication. What if its a like a signal or a sign from other parallel reality that can be admitted by device but not a man. Its like TV set, we can watch a 1 channel but it can be disturbed other channel. Or radio wave, all of us use SW radio when 1 strong radio station with clear signal sometimes can be interrupted other 1 for a sec, its like a mix. What if a story with FPS is the same and its seems me more clear from physic point of view.
    Sorry for my English:)

  48. No point for another video update tonight, as I’m just expecting that 129.53 spy FP to be hit tomorrow, probably into the close. (which is what I said in the current video) So hopefully everyone closed out their shorts with a profit, and you are now waiting like me to get short again.

  49. From a seasonal perspective, tomorrow and the day after OPX are weak. If my hunch is right, Bank of America will dissapoint and become the catalyst for some more downside. g.l. Red

  50. $BDI at 1393 today…

    that real close to FP, that Zero Hedge published not long ago… I can’t the link now 🙁

  51. I think tomorrow will be bullish with the Technology and Financial sector leading the way.

    If GOOG sells off then forget it all hell is breaking loose.

  52. RED,

    lol – remind me to listen to you more. you were correct! i took a short at the end of yesterday expecting more selling, but i will now have to wait it out. the short term FP will be hit first as you stated.

  53. Gang, if we hit the FP target (129.53 spy) early this morning, then there is a possibility of a late day sell off. Also note that it is common to fall short or go over just a few cent on the FP level.

    So, I’d start scaling in short when we get close, and add more if we pierce through it a little. Of course if the print isn’t hit until the close, then we won’t know what’s next until Monday.

    Could we gap down on Monday and tank the whole week? Very possible, but the lack of big volume tells me that the institutions aren’t dumping yet. So, we could chop around with wild swings up and down over the coming weeks, and then about the time the Legatus Pilgrimage happens… start the real sell off!

  54. EUR/USD pump complete, and selling off. Equities aren’t selling off, so gotta watch EUR/USD close today.

    Red, I can’t see the target being hit in pre-market. Was it another FP?

  55. got very close to FP…

    just to remind you all, since you like 11s… also Sun Spots are 11 year cycle…we very close to 11 th anniversary of .com bubble bursting…

  56. Hey Red….I saw your post over on Tom Demarks site talking about FP on SPY around 106 area…..with the FP on XTC (posted by me) up about 10%, I can envision a hard pullback sometime soon, rally into March and then finally turning over….I mean like way over !

    • Anything is possible? Your new FP is the only one that shows the market going higher. Everything I have is to the downside. If the gangsters decide to go with QE3 during the Legatus Pilgrimage, then another rally up is likely.

      But if they do nothing, then this market will tank hard! When did you get those prints, and can you estimate the level that it would take the Dow and SPX too?

      • Looks like those XCI prints take a long time to be fulfilled. That might be the target after a small correction, when it ramps up into March before a bigger fall.

    • my next time frame for a pullback is mid feb–if we don’t get it in FEB, then it’s MARCH 8th–go to all cash, if you are afraid to ride the biggest correction you can even imagine.

  57. FP alert… I see a 128.33 spy print, which could be the target for the close today? But first, I still think we will go higher to the 129.53 spy FP… and then sell off to this new print (possibly today).

  58. RED…that XTC FP is still out there. I’ve found FP’s are much more common on sector charts than DIA, SPY etc. I suspect they have little to no weight compared to those.

    • I’ve noticed that generally the FP’s only last about a day at most, and then disappear. So if a print is showing up for many days, then I’ll have to agree with you that they probably aren’t too trustworthy.

  59. The 15 minute chart is almost ready to go negative. The 5 minute chart is oversold and will roll back up once the 15 goes negative and turns back up. The 30 and 60 minute charts still have room to go on the upside.

    Since it’s almost 11:30 am now, the selling pressure should dry up by noon, and then the charts can all push back up together into the close. I’d now say that the 128.33 spy FP will be hit shortly and then rally into the close, hitting the 129.53 print.

    • Yes, and we just hit the new intraday FP of 128.33, so now what? Do will rally back up into the close, or will that 129.53 print be fulfilled Monday? I’m not sure, but my gut tells me it will happen today.

      You know how they like to leave Friday on a positive note so people will go spend money don’t have over the weekend, on stuff they don’t need.

      • when did we get an intraday FP?? I guess we are at a cross roads? do we go up or down?? One consideration is that we havent had a weekly red candle in what seems an awfully long time….

  60. REd…where are you looking (data feed etc) to find your fake prints….I can’t see the 128.33 your talking about…TIQ

  61. Monday is a very ritualistic number as well. 24 is 6. 1 plus six is 7, the 11 11 and of course the addition of 9 plus the 2 is 911. So I think Monday will be the day.

    • From the TSA

      Year to date statistics on Airport screening from the Department of Homeland Security

      Terrorist Plots Discovered 0
      Transvestites 133
      Hernia’s 1,485
      Hemorrhoid Cases 3,172
      Enlarged Prostates 8,249
      Breast Implants 59,350
      Natural Blonds 3

  62. Red,
    my vote is some down from here…..look at that 30 spx chart…. that macD is turning down again……….

      • Yeah, but the MACD’s are still neutral, up from oversold territory. They could go up a little more I believe. Plus, we now have light volume as most traders are leaving for the weekend. We might just close right around this area, or pop higher at the last hour of the day.

  63. From looking quickly at the charts, we could have a wave 3 down on Monday. While we could still have a pop higher into the close, I believe it will complete a wave 2 up, and a wave 3 of 3 should be next.

    So, if you’re already short, Monday is looking good for the bears. If not, then today might be your last shot at catching it. I’d wait until the close though, as it looks like it wants to go a little higher still.

    • HAL controls the OIH. HAL down, and it’s good to go. HAL earnings, pre-market Monday–HAL up and OIH up. might spill over to SPY, who knows. Or SPY gapped down on Monday, and then I have to go with, HAL earnings won’t make any impact on the indexes.

  64. So everyone going short before close? I was thinking about shorting the Qs. They look especially weak just that they look to close sitting just above the 20ema – maybe I should wait for a decisive close below it… I’v taken too many chances of late… what is everyone else doing?

      • was already long TZA calls and EPI puts, but added puts on AAPL, GOOG, FCX and FXI the last 20 minutes (up on all of them already) and also bought some DIA and QQQQ calls the last 30 seconds to use as a hedge. NDX and RUT lead us up the last rally, they are both showing extreme weakness vs. the other indices. RUT has already broken through below its 20 EMA/SMAs for three days now and NDX closed a hair below today. Plus both their weekly charts look like their read to roll over, with MACD and RSI about to/giving sell signals.

  65. Today is really messed up regarding direction. The thing that makes me nervous is the EUR/USD trade. They’ve been pushing the dollar down HARD to rally the market anddon’t know if they’ll push it down even farther next week. On the bright side however – I’ve been watching forex closely today – someone has had to whack-a-mole the dollar every single time the market wanted to fall. The market wants to go DOWN.

  66. so red,

    we gapped up this morning on the spx…. and the market was prevented from the gap fill today….if we gap down on monday – would that be an island reversal for the market??

  67. The only reason the DIA 118 FP failed, is because everyone here, missed a later updated FP—I’m guessing on that FP, that everyone missed, it has a FP of 120 or 122, imo.

  68. So much for $50 silver by February. At this rate we may hit $26 by next week. Silver did not hold the important $28 level and Gold did not hold the important $1,350 level. Back down to high $1,200’s? Uncertainty may be a better factor to measure silver and gold prices.

    I think there may be continued weakness next week.

    Also One week left for Assange to report something useful unless he has backed off.

    • All kinds of shenannigans to keep metals down and the dollar down at the same time. Probably the first time in world history when mints around the world are OUT of something and the price takes a dump. Shows you how much power the banks (esp JP Morgan) have now. More power than at any point since the dawn of human civilization.

      • From usmint.gov

        Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coins continues to be temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins.

        • Case in point. Fortunately, the laws of physics are irrefutable…no matter how high you try to stack cards, they WILL fall…

  69. You would think that the FP was hit. But even if it wasn’t, no big deal if Monday opens up strong and thennnnnnnn….. No big deal. Its a very occult day Monday.

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