Wednesday Update: Our FP on the DIA of 118.16 has been hit and is now fulfilled. Primary Wave 2 is likely done now. Welcome to Primary Wave 3!
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHrxp4rwpPQ)
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Monday Update... FP Hit, Now What?
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srLE1UrVBag)
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So close, but no cigar! But are we playing horseshoes?
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrXnBX003VI)
Friday's close at 117.77 DIA was disappointing, as I really expected it to tag our upside target of 118.16 and then open on Tuesday with a nice gap down. While that's still possible, the odds are against it... from a historical point of view. All most all of the cases in the past, that had a long white solid candle pattern, had at least a quick break up above the close on the next day the market was open.
Which means that the odds are that the next candle will go above the current closing price at some point in the day. While we could still open down a little, it is likely that the market will rally back past the 117.77 level and go above it at least a little bit.
In almost all cases, this has happened. So, what we are now looking for is a quick gap up (to the 118.16 level hopefully) and then a sell off the rest of the day, putting in a long "topping tail" candle pattern. Will it happen like that? Who knows? Odd's are against it...
I did go short anyway, as we were so close that FP, that I didn't want to chance a gap down on Tuesday without being short. I know we didn't hit the target exactly, and I'll probably be kicking myself next week for not waiting for a better spot... but I'll survive.
Regardless of not catching the exact top, next week is a bull's worst nightmare... at least from a historical point of view. I'll refer you to Cobra's chart on that, as he does great work with prior data, and history.
Everything is now lining up perfectly for a very nice sell off in the market. From every Technical point of view, to historical data, put/call extreme ratio's, sentiment reading, and of course the FP on the DIA... it all spells "TANK", which should make every bull worried.
I've actually been pretty well disciplined the last several weeks, as I've set out all this sideway garbage (which would have killed any option's players like myself). While I still expect the DIA print to be hit, I just couldn't risk the the possibility that I've given it too much exposure, and the print not being hit this time... so I caved in and went short (kicking myself if we go higher on Tuesday).
Anyway, this hasn't been easy on the bears, in fact many bears have fallen prey to the evil bear hunter Elmer Bernanke, who used too hunt only rabbits, but move up to larger game after finally killing bugs bunny I assume.
But, some did survive... and I am one of them. While wounded, I'm still alive (and hungry), and I've learned enough to avoid being shot by the evil hunter. The hunter has now entered bear territory and I believe he's running out of bullets. Next week we bears will make a sneak attack on the hunter, and hopefully shove that shotgun of his up his you now what!
Looking at the news, Richie caught a very interesting article that may confirm my suspicions on Wikileaks. As I'll stated previously, I think that the gangsters either fully control Wikileaks, or are using them to release damaging data on a timeline that marks the top of the market.
While I still don't know whether Julian Assange is a hero (if so, he's also be a "patsy" for new laws to censor the internet), or a plant by TPTB? Either way, the release of the data seems likely to happen at the top of the market as I expected.
This article "could be" the "event" we've all been waiting for... to tank the market! You should always remember too be cautious of any and all news that is reposted heavily in the Main Stream Media (msm), as that area is still in control by TPTB (the powers that be).
Since Wikileaks has gotten a ton of news media coverage by the MSM, you should have your "Dangling Carrot" eyes open, as the MSM is there for one purpose... to distract you, mis-inform you, and mis-lead you. There is always a hidden agenda behind what they tell the sheep watching.
Remember, George Soro's his helping Julian Assange with legal fee's and funding Wikileaks. It's hard too stay clean (Wikileaks) when you are rolling around in the mud with the pigs (George Soro's). But for now, I'm going to give Assange the benefit of the doubt, and still say that he's a HERO (but not a bright one... if he doesn't know he's being used).
For us traders though, we just need to focus on the FP's and try to tie them together with the possible news events that could trigger the next sell off to happen. In this case, it's looking likely to be Wikileaks and not a "false flag" event (like a nuclear bomb... aka "the Simpson Video").
I'm much happier that it's just some economic event and not a physical one, as I don't want to see people die for the market to sell off like it needs too. Instead, I'd love to see the gangsters exposed and hopefully arrested, convicted, and publicly hung for crimes against humanity. (Wishful thinking here) Although it does say something in the bible about people losing their heads in the end time, I think? (could be wrong on that? Maybe that was a Nostradamus prediction?) Let's hope it's the banksters and not the sheep.
Anyway, we are now within 39 cents of hitting the FP on the DIA. I expect it to be hit next week (probably Tuesday), and for the top to finally be in. This should end the Primary wave 2 up from the March 6th, 2009 low of 666 on the SPX. What follows should the the nastiest move down in the history of the stock market... even surpassing the first Great Depression in 1929!
Once it finally bottoms in the coming years, I expect hyper-inflation to rocket this market up well beyond the current high, probably hitting 20-30,000 on the Dow... while Gold hits our FP of 3500! But, that's a few years away from now. Looking more short term, I'm expecting a nice move down next week... how far, I don't know?
There are a lot of people long in this months' coming expiration next Friday, which leads me to believe it will be at least the 1260 area, if not 1240. I can't see them paying off all those calls, as you know how they like to pen the market at a level that they pay out the least amount of people... both on the calls and the puts.
While I don't know the numbers of calls/puts, to determine the "maximum pain" level, I do expect it to be much lower then the current closing price on the spy. All I can say is that everything favors the bears next week. If we fail here, then it's clearly never going to go down! (Kidding there... you know it will correct at some point).
This will be tough on the bears though, as we all know how they like to fool us. They sell off just enough to get the bears licking there chops, thinking that it's going to crash... and BAM, squeeze time! So just be sure to exit your shorts when you get a nice profit, which should be at some good support level too. You can always re-enter later.
This could play out with a small correction down next week, and then back up into the Legatus Pilgrimage date... followed by a much larger move down. So be prepared for some wild swings, and don't get married to your shorts. Exit with a profit, and don't wait for "the big one", as you'll likely be whipped out before it happens.
I'll let everyone know when I exit as well. I'll be looking at the charts to tell me when the market is heavily oversold and due to rally. I expect that it will end the coming week down nicely, which will be a nice exit point before the coming weekend. You know how they like to trap bears on a "rare" Friday sell off, by squeezing them out the following Monday.
So, should we sell off most of next week, and into Friday too, I'll likely exit my shorts before the weekend. Nothing goes straight down, especially in the early stages of a correction. When we hit the Wave 3's of 3's of 3's... then yeah, it's going straight down! But until then, be on the cautious side and take profits when given.
Good luck bears....
Red
LINKS:
Bob Chapman Newsletter Jan 15,2011 – Slush Fund of top politicians found at Vatican Bank, Obama, Clinton, Roberts? Legatus split!
Swiss whistleblower Rudolf Elmer plans to hand over offshore banking secrets of the rich and famous to WikiLeaks
Lindsey Williams Returns: Get Ready for $5 a Gallon Gasoline! Alex Jones Tv (Sunday Edition) 1/2 (NEW INFORMATION)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noegMFZVzw0&feature=player_embedded
Lindsey Williams Returns: Get Ready for $5 a Gallon Gasoline! - Alex Jones Tv (Sunday Edition) 2/2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3i6UP4ZGXg
NOTES:
107 million ounces of physical Silver (as of now... January, 2011)
720 million ounces contracts out on Silver (again, as of now... currently)
On 01/07/11, 4 different "super wealth" people withdrew 4 million ounces of Silver (1 million each person) from the Comex Silver Exchange
First 12 days of January the us mint sold 3,407,000 ounces of Silver! Record Sales! Sales increased 50%!
Quote: "It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Silver was $50.00 an ounce by February the 1st" (Lindsey Williams)
>>>>>
On another note, several people caught this print showing that the FP of DIA 118.16 could have been fulfilled?
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APPL taking a hit today – Bloomberg and reports down 7% in Germany – Jobs taking a health leave. Earnings tomorrow after bell. The link is from a blog that I follow – several useful links within.
http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=103287796413296&id=100001962273891
Link not working for me! Am I the only one?
Probably because it is a facebook page… sorry
red,
other than steve jobs – it is eerily ‘quiet’ out there on this MLK day….i can hear a pin drop! i dunno – the hairs on the back of my neck are tingling…….
China’s Hu Jintao: Currency system is ‘product of past’:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12203391
good article…the way in which i ‘decode’ these types of articles is simple…..if the chinese leader boldly stating they are moving toward being the reserve currency far in the future – “MEANS” they have already completed what is necessary and the transfer is 6 months away…. ..5.1% controllable chinese inflation MEANS 20% runaway uncontrollable inflation… so expect to see the yuan the reserve currency in 6 months and the revaluation will reverse the tremendous inflation china has been expereinceing…
Dow Jones Industrial Average on 14 jan max was a 11 827,11. So that means we hit a 118,16 FP.
How do you mean? I don’t show that as a high (on cash)… was that AF futures??
Mate i did a link above its again http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI+Historical+Prices
That’s interesting…DJIA did hit 11818—I guess it’s time to short something—maybe IWM….the weakest link, imo.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI+Historical+Prices
why do my charts reflect the high at 11794.10 with the close at 11787.40 – that chart says close price adjusted for splits and dividends – interesting and I like that we hit the FP
thanks
its a link from yahoo.finance downloaded from a history sheet. Its like incorrect date lol some sort of fp:)) if you look at chart its not the same high as a numeral date.
I think that was another FP for sure and today we may hit the 118.16 for sure… then what???
I don’t know who trades KSS, but I’ve determined, I’d rather short it, than go long, next couple of waves.
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/kss-1-17aa.jpg
My Man…
FAKE SPX Rally and FAKE Gold rally
http://www.safehaven.com/article/19670/gold-and-spx-both-faked-it
GlaxoSmithKline is going to take a dump tomorrow.
The q’s are down 1% in overnight trading, but the dow is down 6. Looks like the 7% drop in AAPL in overnight, is hurting the q’s
morning red,
bid/ask on the DIA is 118.03 right now…we will no doubt be hitting that FP today….
ES Chart before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/s-500-futures-before-opening-bell_18.html
Alot of people think we are doomed, but there are still great ways to make money. Even while the economy is collapsing around us.
I subscribe to the guy from australia and his FFT economic newsletter at http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com that guy has called many big events before they have happend, including the stock market crash in 2008 and the current financial collapse of the US. (currently happening) I found him from a friend last year, and he has some important work.
His oil calls are insane, and I have been making good money with them. He is well worth a look, if you want to keep two steps ahead of the sheeple out there.
I am worried about my financial future. Is anyone else nervous out there?
Almost there !!!! Good luck mate!!
Dollar support line is being tested
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/dollar-violating-its-support-line.html
RED …
we are almost there!!!!!!!!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!! sweaty palms…DIA 118.07
its funny cause the indexes are negative right now…
DJIA is still positive. The question is: Are we going to make it that last .1 up on the DIA? Or is 118.07 all she has?
my gut says they try and run it…… this is kind of divergence we saw back in april where the DJI was the last of the indexes to drop as money flowed into ‘safety’.
How about this…. 118.07 = 118.16
the 1+6 = 7… Just a thought… I am no numerology expert
LOL …sounds good to me d…. :-))
Well you know about the number seven right?
all i know about 7 is that it comes after 6, and right before 8… but i am assuming symbolically there is more….. what would that be?
It is a bad, bad number… i.e. the seven seals in Revelations. Most things associate with seven are not good… but here we go 118.13…
yeesh…. who knew….. why 118.13…. i thought the fp was 118.16??
Actually I googled it and it also has significant good meaning
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_significance_of_the_number_seven_in_the_Bible
i just saw a 118.12 print…we are so close
108.11 now.
…108.13
overshoot… 118.20
Well 118.22 and still going up….. SYOP please!
I meant STOP – fat fingers
this is that last burst overthrow as people crowd into a safety trade…. lets see what happens
isnt this just sick! The dow.
Red, here is the summary of my info collection from various Gann traders …Most have Jan 19th as a turnaround date (always give few days around the date)… few are saying, this year will be “V” likely with year bottom, late May, June to early July….bounce into Sep, maybe somewhat down into end of the year (but higher than mid year lows)…Some can’t believe they are saying we can see March 2009 lows this year, but that what they are seeing…So I think, given 5 waves down, we should see the worse by the end of March, early April…I’m long April –June puts, will add as move is confirmed…so Dow 8300 by end of March, early April…IMHO…thank for sharing you FPs, if we turnaround today or tomorrow, I’ll be a full convert…LOL
Gann trader are not perma bull or bears, but at this time, there isn’t a single bull, all are very bearish…
19th is a full moon!!!
How about those gangsters? They keep the S&P under 1300 to not allow the bears a good point to short, but yet take it screaming past the 118.16 DIA. Gotta give it to them, they do a good job stealing! Let’s see if we reverse from here. (I sure hope so, cause if not my wife will kill me! LOL!)
This just out… we knew about it but here is an update
http://visiontoamerica.org/story/wikileaks-to-release-secret-swiss-bank-account-info.html
APPLE Below 50 hour moving average
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/apple-gaps-down-below-50-hour-moving.html
Massive dollar manipulation today, as though Europe’s problems just went away. Just an attempt at a shakeout. They went slightly lower than the low prints also.
That’s all she wrote folks!! we can now focus on the two downside FP’s RED has – 8300, and a 345 FP VIX, a $13 GS FP, and a ………
I hope so. this rotation crap is irritating.
remember the FP indicates a script,,, the whole markets are scripted.. there is nothing random about them….. see it for what it is. We overshot the FP to 118.34 on momentum, and already we have backed off…..
Fuck I hate this why can’t we just fall off a cliff already.
i think clifff diving on the full moon is most fun! tommorrow is a full moon – who knows…. today will be a good looking topping candle
I was thinking a topping candle too, we’ll see.
thx for reminding me of the full moon tomorrow. given that we’ve not had any sort of pullback for 2 full moons, it’s likely today will close out at it’s highs, and that’ll be the top for this cycle. I’d actually like to see a big day today as it would almost solidify my theory.
Red, I was thinking about your thoughts on the market crash and then later Hyperinflation possibly in a couple years. While that is one path, I’m trying to keep open to others. I really think your FP’s on gold will tell the path.
From where we are at today, if we go down and hit the 935 FP on gold first, then yes, it sets up a scenerio for hyperinflation.
However, I can see a scenerio where we get a market crash, political turmoil, and possibly war creates a rush to safety of gold/silver (thus pushing it up to 3500/84) – in particular with a VIX print of 349.
After all that settles down, no consumers will have money left and we continue with the deleveraging that should be happening now. To our final low of ??? SPY 20 something (or is there a FP in the 10’s now?) and gold of 935.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKd37fiZ6po&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL
great EW video…P[3] starts about now!
Sorry gang, I had to run some errands this morning. Looks like we hit our FP and went past it a hair. Now we wait, and see if she pulls back off.
The 60 minute chart is rolling over now, so we could put in a nice topping candle on the daily if we go negative the rest of the day. Patience is the key now, as everyone else is still expecting 1300 and 12,000… which again, I think won’t happen.
But I’ve been wrong before, so use your “mental” stop wisely.
Where did you place your SPY stop? Just curious..
Sorry gang, I had to run some errands this morning. Looks like we hit our FP and went past it a hair. Now we wait, and see if she pulls back off.
The 60 minute chart is rolling over now, so we could put in a nice topping candle on the daily if we go negative the rest of the day. Patience is the key now, as everyone else is still expecting 1300 and 12,000… which again, I think won’t happen.
But I’ve been wrong before, so use your “mental” stop wisely.
IF there is a ‘script’ and if there are ‘ganstas’…..then would GS not be with them ? I mean, they are the bag holder for all the FED intervening activity in March 09…..they are the ones who were ‘saved’. We msut agree The FED must show a pretty good profit on all its intervention, at least publically. Therefore, they cannot sell assets (which they hold in a big way) at depressed prices….conseuqently evevated prices can and should be sustained in their minds eye.
I do not agree. Increasing debt from 9.5 trillion to ov13 trillion and GDP increase only 180 billion which almost nothing does not sound like a successful investment.
Possible late sell off?
POMO should be about done but its a small one today 1-2billion
AAPL and IBM AH earnings.
My bet is they both beat. There just does not seem to be anything to help us bears.
jim,
do you question ‘WHY’ apple came out with JOBS new YESTERDAY, rather than announcing it during the conference call. What they have set up is a scenario whereby the entire questioning on the call will be about steve…. maybe it was a tatical distraction. maybe some margin compression will show up in there numbers after the bell which is the reason behind the early announcement. The street wants BLOW out numbers,,,maybe they only are at blow right now….? who knows….we will find out soon.. just something to think about…
Interesting point on Jobs. I was curious why they did not wait until after earnings. But the distraction may have been set up as you suggest.
I am shocked that the sp has been able to sustain past 1293 fib fan
From the looks of today, it appears that the DOW will close up a little and the current “low of the day” will be 11,777.99… which matches up nicely with the 117.77 DIA high last Friday. I think the “Unstoppable” train has arrived.
Last chance to board the train to hell… all aboard!
red,
i agree…. but i am going to ride my bike instead…. i never DID like trains anyhow…….
And Dow broke above upper BB
Did you say train? (7’s & 11’s)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/11_July_2006_Mumbai_train_bombings
RED,
IDIA close – 118.28 let me see (11+8 = 19) and (2+8 = 10, or rather 1) does this point to 1/19 tipping point reversal???
IBM beat on all counts.
AAPL blows out. No recession there.
hey, makes sence. everyone else but myself went out and bought their crap. This is so strange because most people I know are hurting or are broke. Yet, these big companies who produce junk keep “surging”. Oh well. Holiday volume.
No holiday volume at TGT or KSS—safer to short those, than go long.
Hello Z, you got that right. But sco looks ripe to me. Good posts. dont forget to hit some ads.
Not paying a mortgage, increases discretionary income…I read blog post once, someone’s daughter working at Apple store (outside of Manhattan) said people sometimes use 3 credit cards to complete a purchase…and not a rarity…
People in US will blow, every last bit of credit on I-crap…I’m not surprised…it’s not like banks will ever get paid anyway…look at their earnings, a la C this morning…
Red, that turnaround better come tomorrow, or my faith in Gann traders and your FP will be gone forever…that along with any other TA, that didn’t work last year…LOL
you’ll get it, within 48 hours.
Look at the NASDAQ BB breaks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p70433372832&a=221452831
there’s no chance the q’s can get to 60, before a pullback.
Unless the dow sells off on its 100+ point open tomorrow, I’d say that print was revised…
I think I’m in way too early on MRK. adding puts tomorrow as a hedge.
When I miss, it’s usually by 8%—
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/mrk-1-18aa.jpg
I’m finally going to have some decent short sell signals on the 15 minute charts—within the next couple of days—The overnight’s have been useless for about a month now.
I’m short gasoline—never going to $5, WMT would call the president! Then the president would order shoot to kill orders at the gasoline pits. and then the gasoline pits in response, would bring the price back down.
That’s my conspiracy theory, about that!
and if that didn’t work, then WMT would call the Chinese national security agency, and you’d just see gasoline pit traders, disappear on their way to work.
Wow, earnings blew away estimates by a longshot. Could see a major gap and go go tomorrow. All bears should be extinct by tomorrow. Looking for a pullback starting Thurs. Don’t fight the Fed……….
Are you talking about AAPL? Usually rallys into earnings and sells off after – right now it is below where it traded on Friday… we will see where it goes now.
There is always the possibility of a sell the news. With massive Pomo and other factors I seriously doubt it. Bears probably are gonna get crushed……
there are no “other factors”, just pomo. thanks though.
UNP reports thurs pre-market—that can kill-off a lot of sectors–it has octopus tentacles that reach into almost every sector.
Just visited http://www.apmex.com/ and they are giving away a 1 ounce Gold American Eagle every month. I think all you need to do is register.
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y258/redripple2/WINAGOLDAMERICANEAGLE.jpg
We hit a significant (multi year) DOW TL today. it held, for now.
no telling if POMO will break it. A reverse on the 19th would fit ‘perfect’.
http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-67EB_4D358D71.html
-GG
need explaining please! I don’t get it!
I miscounted tds from August 25low to Nov 4 high. It was 49 days like I always thought but somehow it counted out differently numerous times last week. Today would then be 49tds from Nov 4 high. Thus 1(85)tds from April 26 high. 138tds (69×2) from July 1 low. So we have a sequence of 134tds from July 8,2009low to Jan 2010high. Then a high high 136tds period from April 26to Nov 4 highs and now 138tds from July low…..
SP has also now achieved a 69%retrace of the 2007-2008 decline. 1987 B wave rally off Sept lows to early October achieved a 69% retrace….
And the Jets juggernaut (along with the Bears, the “enlightened ones” favorite team) reprising its role from the 1969 superbowl (3 or III) by upsetting another Goliath, the Patriots (who weren’t as good as their record though….Jets really have more talent except at quarterback)…..
Golden Globes awarded all of the “enlightened ones” favorites. Social Network swept most of the awards and Natalie Portman got the best actress award for being “The Black Swan”.
I don’t want to bet long on the USD , but I will bet against the other guys, hehe
Short Cable Short Yen
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/01/short-cable-short-yen.html
I guess currency manipulation has gone 24X7. There is an obvious concerted effort to push down the dollar, even though it has the least fleas. Euro is skyrocketing like they Europeans just solved all their financial problems, cured cancer, cured AIDS, discovered cold fusion and created a perpetual motion machine, all in the last week.
acp,
i find the timing between the china delegation to the US and the reversal of the (Euro/USD). it is almost as if the Usd caught the ‘asian’ flu (cough). what a grand way to show chinese dominance by arriving in the US to a ‘weak’ reserve currency. Let us see what happens to the equity markets upon Hu’s arrival – which so happens to coincide with the hitting of the FP. maybe there is ‘asian’ flu a plenty for all the markets (cough – bond/muni markets)…. “hu knows??’ Lol
Yes, there are some interesting coincidences…
TODAY AGAIN, dollar manipulated like nothing else. I’ve actually never seen the dollar manipulated like this ever before, even in recent history. Supposedly, with GREAT US economic numbers, the dollar is tanking like it’s about to default. Another “never before” we can chalk up to Madman Ben.
I noticed that too.
Frightening Evidence of China’s Looming Economic Bubble: The Ghost Mall
http://caps.fool.com/blogs/frightening-evidence-of/524613
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=177673
here is something lot worse… Forged Commercial Paper in Chinese banks… there is a link to original story in Karl’s ticker…
also, great chart blog, agrees with FPs and likely timing, scroll down for S&P chart
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3387040
“Target of 1294 on the S&P 500 has been reached… Maybe a GAP UP in the morning on IBM AAPL earnings…, then the rubber band BREAKS!…”
this was the quote from the stockchart blog link I provided…check it out…
so I guess the rubber band is BREAKING, as I type…
As I write this comment I have made 6665 previous comments using my Disqus handle “Red Dragon Leo”. That makes this comment number 6666, being made on 1-19-11 (911), when the Dow had a low yesterday of 11,777.99, and a high on the DIA last Friday of 117.77 (think “Unstoppable train, number 777”).
The market also hit our FP on the DIA yesterday, and pierced it a little as expected. What does all this mean? I have no clue. It’s just odd how all this happens I guess?
Does it mean that the final top is in, and it’s down hill from now? Could be? I personally think that “Yes”, the market has finally topped, but I won’t know it that is correct until I go back and look at this post again in the future.
For all the bears that joined on getting short around the DIA FP level, good luck to us all….
Red
So far so good 🙂
hey, it’s weirder.
my odometer yesterday was 77,177
I kid you not!!!
Now that’s FUNNY! Somethings brewing… that’s for sure!
RED here is something for you, another co-incidence to the FP being hit!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tom-demark-11-drop-market-imminent
Perfect timing Richie!
Damn, beat me to the punch, I just read that!
you can have the next one ACP,
either way, more and more evidence points to the validating the painting of that FP….. more like a ‘script’ than just ‘random’ markets…
Interesting how their read states it is the “…first sign of a reversal in the S&P since March 2009, when the indicators showed a rebound was imminent…”
like i said….this whole thing is playing like a SCRIPT… why announce this today? why 1/19/11? since they had their readings since 1/14? why announce at all? since they are used most by chartists and technical pros – they make money with their readings…. just makes you go hmmmm….and wanna run outside and let the sunshine! LOL
anyone care to buy ibm right here? Its nice and cheap! lol. they must have read cobras blog last night.
EUR/USD just bounced back off the 1.35 level, which is what the forex guys were looking for to short EUR again. See if it holds…
Hey Leo, if you like numbers…. todays date 1/19/2011
if you flip 119 backwards you get 911 🙂
LOL… I posted that early on my 6666 comment. You must have been sleeping? Ha Ha Ha…
http://reddragonleo.com/media/comment-6666-on-1-19-11-and-DIA-FP-118-16-was-finally-hit.jpg
Check your odometer too, as lot’s of strange things are happening today. Gold Gerb has his reading 77,177! (Hey Gold… maybe you shouldn’t cross any railroad tracks today!)
cr@p, how am I going to get home?
[I have to cross two!!]
ok y’all gotta check this out….. it is HILARIOUS!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MM8dbWZ8Xw&feature=player_embedded#!
The 5 and 15 minute charts are now pointing back up. Support is now resistance around 1290 spx area. We could rally back up for awhile to work off the short term oversold conditions.
The 60 minute chart still has more downside possible. Once the 5 and 15 reset, we could see another push down into the close? (Wishful thinking here for us bears, as even though the charts say that… they haven’t been working lately).
So, if this really is the top in the market, then then move down could take us as low as 1280 spx today. Who knows? (crossing my fingers here).
The 5 and 15 minute charts are now pointing back up. Support is now resistance around 1290 spx area. We could rally back up for awhile to work off the short term oversold conditions.
The 60 minute chart still has more downside possible. Once the 5 and 15 reset, we could see another push down into the close? (Wishful thinking here for us bears, as even though the charts say that… they haven’t been working lately).
So, if this really is the top in the market, then then move down could take us as low as 1280 spx today. Who knows? (crossing my fingers here).
red,
my gut tells me that they will give us a full 5 waves down today – so target would be that 1280 point – with some sideways action tommorrow… that 5 min macd can just as easily turn down again and create a lower low
Profit Drop Shakes Up Goldman Sachs:
http://www.forbes.com/2011/01/19/goldman-sachs-earnings-trading-markets-equities-banks.html?boxes=Homepagelighttop
Profit Drop Shakes Up Goldman Sachs:
http://www.forbes.com/2011/01/19/goldman-sachs-earnings-trading-markets-equities-banks.html?boxes=Homepagelighttop
OK….here is BIG PIC chart for you bears, might help you sleep better.
http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-2000-comparisons.html?mega-bear-2000-nominal-extended
I’m not a mathematician, but seeing all these 7s makes me think of the “rule of 7s”, which may also have something to do with turning points in the market. Such as the target retracement for a bear market rally…
red,
i am trying to find where you put that screen shot of the 8300 dow FP?
Click on the “Photos” button below on the toolbar. It’s the 4th one from left to right, on the top row.
Any bears now in profit, should consider that we could rally back a bit tomorrow to work off the oversold conditions. So you might get a better spot to go short at? I say “might”, as we could also continue selling off too?
But, the volume on the SPY today is still low (about 75 million right now at 1pm) which tells me that this is just a “technical sell off” today, and not a “panic sell off”.
Until the volume surges back up above 200 million, we can (and should) expect some wild swings. Remember, they will likely shake out as many bears as they can… before the real sell off happens.
So some profit taking is something I plan to do today, by closing some shorts and let the others ride (just in case in continues down tomorrow too?).
The market is hitting some support now too, so that’s another reason to be cautious (if you are a bear of course). So, by the end of the day, I’ll close a small amount of shorts and look for a bounce to reload tomorrow.
Should the bounce not happen, then the remain shorts will still be held and should increase in value. Maybe we’ll get a nice “gap down” tomorrow? Wouldn’t that be sweet?
Anyway, just don’t expect this to go straight down without a few shakeouts. Either take some profit, or hold tight and don’t get thrown off the bull… he is dying now!
red,
look at the technicals on the VIX daily. they have all ‘just’ turned up strongly. histogram on the macd is looking to want to put in some positive bars. it all just looks like this market will sell for a series of days before some kind of relief bounce and rally…. but i never know… i will watch the action till close to closing…
It was fun while it lasted.
Got a GREAT position in VXX.
Time to bail out on all shorts… at least for me! I got a new intraday FP of 129.61 on SPY. That’s our upside target I believe. I’ll post a screen shot here asap.
Sorry, it’s 129.53 spy…
http://reddragonleo.com/media/fp-106-90-on-5-minute-chart-08-30-2010.jpg
I’m not going long, but I’m out of all shorts right now. I’ll re-enter tomorrow. I don’t know if this is just a late fill or not (it doesn’t look like one), but it tell me the market is going up tomorrow.
Besides the FP, the charts are oversold now, and need to reset back up. Use your own judgment, but I’m out now and will look to reload again tomorrow.
Sorry again… wrong link. Here’s the correct one:
http://reddragonleo.com/media/spy-fp-129-53-on-01-19-2011.jpg
lower highs, lower lows—That’s what it says! imho
Not confident in your shorts anymore? That statistical data on Thursday looks like a dream day for bears but I guess those charts don’t account for manipulation either.
The 60 minute chart is oversold, and starting to hook back up. The 15 minute chart is now pointing up and about to cross the zero mark. The 5 minute will go negative shortly and reset back up within 30 minute or so.
This allows the perfect setup for the bears to get squeezed out tomorrow on some bogus job’s data. We all know how the game is played by now. The charts only work for the bulls, not the bears… and right now they are clearly oversold.
Add that with the new FP of 129.53 spy, and you have a short squeeze in the makings! Maybe I’m wrong, and just a little paranoid… who knows, but I’d rather be safe then sorry.
And we are now putting in a double bottom with very light volume still. Just do the math…
Well, I just can’t win. Trading software had a glitch on one of the securities I purchased and I couldn’t sell it. Lost out on some of my profit by having to call in.
am not out yet red,,, am watching that VIX…it is right at the middle of the bollinger. if it rejects i will close out positions near to closing time, if it pushes through i will hang in there overnight….
Good luck Richie… maybe I’m wrong on this intraday print?
so far, we have a break above the middle of bollinger on the VIX. if we stay above, there is a gap fill above it maybe looking to fill for today/tommorrow? – which means more selling….. will keep looking.
I did get out a little early today, as I was expecting only 3 waves in today’s pattern. We are now on wave 5 down (of wave 1 down), which should be ending shortly. Just be prepared for a possible wave 2 up tomorrow.
If today took 5 waves down, then tomorrow should be an ABC (3 waves up) move.
thanks red, i am watching that count closely….. i will make the call in 1 hour…… but its that dumb ole VIX that is telling me to hold on…. any black bar move on the vix daily that punches through the middle bollinger and stays above always gaps up the following day….
I am still holding shorts – looks like more selling… VIX @ HOD
Stupid A, FP, non- believers, Shorts are making tonnage, raising my stops.
So what’s the verdict? Run up into the close and sell off at the open tomorrow after a wonderful pre-market of bright futures?
If so, I’ll be hiring a chimp to read prints and trade while I sit on the beach because the way the market works nowadays has gone completely effing nuts.
well red,
i can smell bear trap, i can see bounce written all over the short term time frames – but i am gonna hold overnight. – its that daily VIX. more times than naught, when a black bar breaks through the middle bb from the lower, the vix POPS the next day (sometimes substantially). I have to let the vix prob. lead me on this one….. and also i believe in the FP – and i believe we need to get to 8300 in short order…… say a prayer for me red – tommorrow may grind me up and may stuff me in a can of bear spam…..
HUGE red candle on IWM—IWM topped for the Q yesterday, pullback has started.
Red thanks for the FP tip. And of course its reverse 911 11 11 day. Its the end as we know it.
red,
you just know that those names are a poison pill..errr – insurance policy… i would expect to see a few names released in short order in an agressive display to the swiss authorities…
ooops forgot the attachment….
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/julius-baer-whistleblower-who-was-supposed-hand-over-wikileaks-list-2000-tax-evaders-arreste
VIX up almost 2 handles. I love the smell of BULL meat at the close.
Gotta figure they are going to try another method of communicating with themselves after rdl posted the FPs on this last one.
nope—FP’s are here to stay. I’ve been following them for 8 years—actually longer, back when fake prints showed up as 16 3/4, or 16 1/2. and there were entire sites / industries dedicated to publishing, nothing but composite trades, that’s what they were called 8 plus years ago. So keep looking for those FP’s cause this is the only source on the internet for the time being.
Why were they called composite trades?
This is how the big houses, used to transfer huge sums of money to each other. The market called them composite trades—and then Google came along, and censored the search for ” composite trades) –which leaves only Red’s site as the one and only site to get that info again.
Once a fake print has been filled, the big houses can tell each other they are (EVEN with each other), until there’s another “BILL DUE” and they go print another fake print, as obscure a location as they can find.
Someone got cocky, and printed one on the DOW—-for us little guys! send him some chocalates.
I’ll send a message via your contact form on your site, if you don’t mind.
Oh yeah, thanks for the info!
Hi ACP!
I’m just glad Red and the folks here, get it! I’m not by myself anymore. YAY!
Wow, the tards waited until the last 2 minutes for the traditional PUMP. I guess the POMO money isn’t enough to handle all the selling any more…what with everyone being super-duper-ultra leveraged because of the Madman Put.
ok – when the s&p (-13.11)ends the day off losing more points than the DOW 30 (-12.86), then you know we have just seen the top! Index divergence rules…but more importantly – FP RULES!!!!
IBM holding DOW up – don’t think that is going to save it
FFIV down $28+ AF earning must have been really disappointing! What effect will it have on Qs?
FFIV has been overvalue since 118—-They beat the street, but they needed to beat by 6%… (X 4) = 24%, to stay on par with the market’s 24% growth expectations.
It is opex but this seems different. Vix has not been over 10% in quite some time.
i have little clue at this point how to read the day.
Trade what ya see fellas. Weakness has arrived……. Bears got some bones today and the meal should continue for the next few days. Shorts deployed early today. Next goal is to break that 20dma. I believe I see a smile on your face Red………….
calm down, it’s opX wednesday.
then again, if the $TICKS are negative like today (Wed)
I’m in for a little, and add next week!
-GG
Don’t forget about Fed day numbnutz………
If ya look at the RUT, transports and nasdaq… they were very weak today. They are supposed to lead us… should we follow? GS is also heading towards the FP – it did close slightly below the 50ma…
I think the Q’s huge red candle, marked the top for this Q…Q’s In a downtrend now, Easier to short, than to go long, until FEB rally gets here. imo.
and then there’s this! The Dow is lagging—-look for down 100 days on the Dow, while the Q just sits there. You’ve heard of rotating sectors, well this is rotating indexes.
anyone notice the ratio of INTC to Q’s?
something is truly amiss IMHO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC:QQQQ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79881103905
INTC’s target price for 2011, is $20.50. So how it got to 22, I’ll never know. Each year, INTC has different target prices. I guess this year, the market is dogging it, cause it should have a target price of 24 or 25, you’d think.
I’m scared…your print and 119. doh!
New video is up now. Refresh page…
I have a members only chart, that I will post here for one night–for everyone here to copy and paste, and keep in his private collection. and then I’ll take it down.—-I mathematically figured out your 1067 in the video, weeks ago,—your fake print confirms / gives me POWER NOW!
Here you go Red—This is a one only glimpse and then I’m taking this info down.
http://zstock7.com/?p=3729
That’s some crazy shiznit!
That’s how I calculate the high and the low for the year, going on 5 years now. As long as their aren’t any surprises, it’s pretty accurate. it predicted 7000 dow in the bank crash, but it didn’t predict 6100, because around that time nobody knew the numbers!
This method even predicts by Quarters, sometimes—in OCT, it said we would correct at 11,800—coincidentally Red’s FP. and by coincidence again, it confirms Red’s FP 1067—-I personally think that FP won’t be reached until after March, when the market gets worried that QE2 runs out in June.
This chit even works on stocks and ETF holdings, like BHI 60 or XOM 81.5 = OIH high.
Interesting how some simple methods can be fairly accurate. The only trick is the timing, and patience…
Where do you get estimate on future earning?
Bring forth some downside………..
You finally joined the bears Robert! Wa Who!
Thanks for the update Red…
Well, given the futures, and overnight session in China, I’d say Gann timing and FPs held up…As I’ve been saying before, June likely to be bottom of 2011 (and possibly lower that March 2009)…this would also match FP in gold 930… I’d say that FP of DOW 8300 should be reached in third wave or towards end of March…Soooo…don’t count on POMO boys, when job report is released on Feb 4th, and it’s obvious that Fed didn’t improve housing or jobs…
Most of the bonds bought by Fed are new issues (like couple of weeks ago)…if they want to keep Ponzi going they have to increase debt calling fast…bad job number (along with interest rates going higher), add muni crisis and Europe…a whole a lot has to happen before April 1st…
Red, I think you are being very bullish with 8300 later in the year…LOL…my target for that print is end of March early April, but in first half of March as well (as market if forward looking…LOL)
Your right… what am I thinking? I must have drank some of the bull koolaid, to think that the bottom in March/April is only 8300. I do think they will take out the March 2009 lows though… just don’t know when?
UberBear. you are a rare specimen at these times.
🙂
Wave one down… this summer support…fill in all the gaps…
Wave three down…8300 or lower (commodity low in March , “rimes” with Nov 2008)
Wave five down…March 2009 lows …sometimes end of May to early July…
That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it…LOL
Youtube Tony Robbins “economic warning” from Aug 2010 and see how his predictions are coming along…his buddy Paul Tudor Jones compared fall rally to 2000 bubble…so straight down from here…
I’m not changing my position right now, long Apr-June puts and cash, will go fully short into Feb jobs number, maybe sooner…just to confirm this top is holding for a week or so…
Red,
For some reason, I can’t view your FP in the photo’s section (I think it’s the blockers here at work). Can you post the FP of 1060 here? Thanks.
http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010/04/DIA-misprint-03-31-2010.jpg
Sorry Johnny, I posted the wrong FP. Here’s the 106 spy…
http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010/10/spy-fp-106-46-on-10-18-2010.jpg
“Jobless Claims Fall More than Expected, Down 37,000 to 404,000″… What a surprise! (Like we didn’t see that BS coming)
well red,
you were right about that ‘good’ claims script – you are good! i think the market will head down to about 1274 area in S&p and then bounce/reverse for a pop at around 10:30 (closing of european markets)… i will get out of short on opening and look to re-enter at better price.
Thursday AM news out.
Check out the MinDow futures (after the news)
http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-E48C_4D382F53.html
Glad to see you made it home safely Gerb, especially since you had to cross 2 train tracks… LOL
Bearish Engulfing of ES
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/bearish-engulfing-in-s-500-futures.html
Red,
Actually I was looking for the 1060ish level print that you refer to in the video, not the dia 118.16. I have to do some research, but I remember when you first received/saw that print. In the afterhours, it may have went down to that level in a “flash” after-hours crash and bounced back. So if you have that one and can you post it here? I’m basically looking for the date you received it and the level it showed. Thx!
Red – you mentioned 129.53 on SPY – is that a new FP – I thought we didn’t have any higher FPs. I looked in photos and couldn’t find it???
I got the print yesterday Dee, but it’s not higher then the current high. I expect it to be hit today or tomorrow, and then more selling next week….
http://reddragonleo.com/media/spy-fp-129-53-on-01-19-2011.jpg
Damn,
Silver is getting hit hard today…. the manipulators are having their way today….
red,
http://www.forexpros.com/indices/indices-futures free real time indices futures for the world….. just in case anyone is interested.
ok red,
i am out of my short..and with it a small profit – (beer is on me), and it is looking to bounce right at 1274 as i wrote earlier (there is a net sell line at 1274.25 so it will bounce off this line as support… i think it will pop from here into friday….
Smart move Richie…. now we wait. Tomorrow is opx and they will likely pin the spy wherever it benefits them the most. Since the selling pressure seems too be dying right now you can expect an upward movement into the close.
I don’t know if it will close flat or slightly down, but either way we are still likely to go up to that new FP before another big leg down. I suspect it will happen tomorrow, but they could push it off until Monday… hard to say?
From past experience, these intraday prints play out in 1-2 days, and sometimes by the close of the day they were shown. Friday will be day 2, and that’s when I expect it to be hit. It will fool the most bears I believe, as most will not be expecting a rally up that high on Friday to happen. We’ll see…
red,
that FP is awesome to know, because i think they will take it up to that level – which is much higher than most bears would expect on a ‘counter trend’ bounce. many bear might think it would be business as usual and it is on the way to melt up higher, and participating bulls will be on board…. then an event monday/tuesday that sends spy selling to that 200 million level.
EURUSD Chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/eurusd-resistance-level.html
Silver Chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/silver-looks-weak.html
We were wondered where you was San… taking a few days off I guess. Looks like P3 has started… next week will really be fun.
Problems with my computer forced me to take some time off.
Now tell the truth San… you just partied too much over the 3 day weekend and was still hungover on Tuesday and Wednesday. LOL
We could test $25.00 to $26.00 area again.
$26 is very much possible
Looks like we may turn positive.
What a recovery!¿!
You mean… “What obvious manipulation” LOL
looks like.. Bernekee and his printing machine has just joined the market action.
Yes indeed, it looks like we are on our way to 129.53 (probably by the close tomorrow).
If you look at open interest on SPY puts and calls, there’s much more open interest on puts just below where we are right now vs. calls just a little higher. Makes me think they pin it higher tomorrow, and continue you the fall next week if the TOP is indeed in.
Well, I’ve yet to see a FP be wrong. While we haven’t hit all the larger downside one’s yet, these smaller intraday print almost always hit within 1-2 days.
So, tomorrow they put some more manufactured good data, along with good earnings on the major companies reporting… and Bam, it’s up we go!
Wow red,
i put on a speculative long (i feel dirty) at 1271 and put in the sell order before i left to run some errands. i came back, and sell was executed (i feel clean again), and a nice little profit….. way cool! thanks for that spy FP – now lets all concentrate on that 1060 spx level, and the 8300 dow FP.
When you fall UP a mountain it is slow – when you fall DOWN that same mountain – well lets just say gravity is with you…. i think we will go there relatively quickly….
red,
give those charts another look quick before the end of the day. I am seeing that there may be more selling before we get this big bounce. i am seeing the short term technicals reset enough so that more selling can take place… the 30 min… macd can turn back down…. anyway i went with my gut and put some shorts back in play….
Red, on my earlier comment. Check this link from ZH out: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spy-flash-crashes-nyse-cancels-500-million-worth-trades
It appears you received your FP of SYP 106.46 at 3:15pm and then at 4:15pm that same day…well…106.46 EXACTLY –
I’m not sure why it didn’t register with me earlier. In your videos you kept on referring to SPY 106, but I was thinking you had another one. I’d be careful about using that FP. According to the TPTB, this one might be considered filled…
I meant SPY, not SYP in the above. When I saw this back in October and then an hour later a flash crash to this level, it was a big tipping point in me being a beliver in FP’s. http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010/10/spy-fp-106-46-on-10-18-2010.jpg
I meant SPY, not SYP in the above. When I saw this back in October and then an hour later a flash crash to this level, it was a big tipping point in me being a beliver in FP’s. http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010/10/spy-fp-106-46-on-10-18-2010.jpg
this is freaky…but all other FPs are south from there (lower)…Right?
I would say this more a FP confirmation that anything else…that where we are heading real soon…
kind a scary actually, if true that market is this scripted…
Red, maybe you should give us passwords to the blog, before your blog goes viral, it would be no good , kind of like hin—burg omen last summer, when everyone was talking about it…
I was thinking about the same thing the other day. At some point if too many people catch on here at Red Dragon Leo, either the TPTB will shut this site down or they will send out tons of false information to confuse those that try and use FP’s.
Mschemeng – I think there is one FP that is higher, (QID at 4.96), but that is a very high level. (probably DOW 15K + ) – so my guess is that will get hit with hyperinflation or in like 10 years.
yes, FP should be good as turnaround points, but for overall market direction found that Gann followers have most sucess…EW is OK, but there is alway and alternate count, not so much with Gann…
Few Gann traders had 19th as turnaround date…most are waithing now for move to start to give short term price and date updates…so I’m waiting too…LOL…
In summary 5 waves down to end of May to early July bottom 2011…bounce…then Red’s real low prints for 2012… PMs will go up after June into 2013, still in bull market, but 2011 will not be a good PM year ( we need to reach FP of 930 in gold by June)…
which gann traders do you follow????
Nice round trip to the 20dma as I hoped for. More weakness to follow tomorrow………
all my Longs were UP and all my shorts were down, today—I couldn’t post here today. Too busy collecting money! Rare day! every position wins!
If CREE is down 1 more day on FRI, I gotta go long. I don’t know when I’ll be able to get it this cheap again.
if you google ” composite trade” and some sort of weird combination of those two words—eventually you might come across a new site, that publishes every fake print for the day.
They used to exist, but are all gone now.
Or there may be a way to use a stock screener, to catch all of them. hi low price screen
My overnight charts show a range on the DIA 116.40 to 118’s, next couple of days….Black monday?
GOOG shattered earnings. AMD beat earnings.
These two could lead the way for tech stocks tomorrow.
OPEN down 2.18% and 1.39% in after-hours. CFO sells 6,000 shares of OPEN. How is reserving tables a 2 billion dollar business?
Hi Red! here’s an old FP SPY 106.63, I stashed away! NOV 2010
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/spy-11-30aa.jpg
if you type in google search ” fake print stock market” RED owns the whole page! Red’s house is under 24 hour surviellance, I betcha!
And if you search for “composite trades”, you’re at the #1 spot!
LOL… but who is really searching for that term?
Guys what if i say to you that is no theory of Fps as a manipulation channel and instrument of communication. What if its a like a signal or a sign from other parallel reality that can be admitted by device but not a man. Its like TV set, we can watch a 1 channel but it can be disturbed other channel. Or radio wave, all of us use SW radio when 1 strong radio station with clear signal sometimes can be interrupted other 1 for a sec, its like a mix. What if a story with FPS is the same and its seems me more clear from physic point of view.
Sorry for my English:)
Not likely, but certainly a far out thinking. I’m fairly sure TPTB use theses prints to communicate to each other where they plan to take the market.
While I’m sure there are parallel dimensions, I doubt that they are sending signals to us. What would be the reason to do so? I can’t think of any?
Its just a other explanation of FP nature.
ITS TO BE SEEN BY THOSE THAT SEE
No point for another video update tonight, as I’m just expecting that 129.53 spy FP to be hit tomorrow, probably into the close. (which is what I said in the current video) So hopefully everyone closed out their shorts with a profit, and you are now waiting like me to get short again.
Or even possibly at the open, and that would be the end of it.
Wow, lookie that EURO PUMPING they’re doing…I think they just might try to open big, then dump…
what does that translate into on the spx red,thanks
From a seasonal perspective, tomorrow and the day after OPX are weak. If my hunch is right, Bank of America will dissapoint and become the catalyst for some more downside. g.l. Red
$BDI at 1393 today…
that real close to FP, that Zero Hedge published not long ago… I can’t the link now 🙁
What does this chart on XCI tell us about the Future ?
http://kbsctrading.blogspot.com/p/fake-prints.html
The telecom FP, means VZ is going up 20% this year.
Good catch there on those FP’s GSspy. Thanks for sharing.
I think tomorrow will be bullish with the Technology and Financial sector leading the way.
If GOOG sells off then forget it all hell is breaking loose.
Gerald Celente’s Top Trends Of 2011:
http://www.rense.com/general92/top.htm
The bottom line. The gov’t, still has to govern.
And with today’s entitlement attitude, it’s going to be tougher than ever…
Another gap down start on Friday…no pomo eod would be a nice change, dow futures down 14, asia is down, about 1%
Premarket sure changed from 8 hours ago.
Gap up is more like it! Looks like we are off to 129.53 spy (about 1294-1295 spx).
RED,
lol – remind me to listen to you more. you were correct! i took a short at the end of yesterday expecting more selling, but i will now have to wait it out. the short term FP will be hit first as you stated.
I’m learning…
🙂
Gang, if we hit the FP target (129.53 spy) early this morning, then there is a possibility of a late day sell off. Also note that it is common to fall short or go over just a few cent on the FP level.
So, I’d start scaling in short when we get close, and add more if we pierce through it a little. Of course if the print isn’t hit until the close, then we won’t know what’s next until Monday.
Could we gap down on Monday and tank the whole week? Very possible, but the lack of big volume tells me that the institutions aren’t dumping yet. So, we could chop around with wild swings up and down over the coming weeks, and then about the time the Legatus Pilgrimage happens… start the real sell off!
A big turn date is the weekend of jan 29th, so I think it’s best to get short around that time
Yes, it is a big turn date. While I might get short today (to see if we sell off into the close), I don’t think I’ll hold over the weekend. Could be choppy next week.
I agree. It could bounce in this range of 1270 to 1300 for next week and then break down in Feb
do you say that because 2+9=11?
EUR/USD pump complete, and selling off. Equities aren’t selling off, so gotta watch EUR/USD close today.
Red, I can’t see the target being hit in pre-market. Was it another FP?
Never mind the question. I read your note wrong. HA!
Gold Chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/trend-line-of-gold.html
ok we are close to that FP being hit….. spy @ 129.14
Not close enough yet Richie…
http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010/04/DIA-misprint-03-31-2010.jpg
It’s 129.53, which we should hit within 5 cents I believe.
Falling off – is it likely that the FP won’t get hit until Mon? Gap up and then tank? GOOG not able to hold this highs… helping the Q’s to fall some.
the 1 min macd on spx is resetting, and the 30 min needs to get closer to zero before real sell off, i think after 1 min reset we hit…
The 5 minute is just over bought now, and once it’s reset… they will make another push higher.
got very close to FP…
just to remind you all, since you like 11s… also Sun Spots are 11 year cycle…we very close to 11 th anniversary of .com bubble bursting…
Hey Red….I saw your post over on Tom Demarks site talking about FP on SPY around 106 area…..with the FP on XTC (posted by me) up about 10%, I can envision a hard pullback sometime soon, rally into March and then finally turning over….I mean like way over !
Anything is possible? Your new FP is the only one that shows the market going higher. Everything I have is to the downside. If the gangsters decide to go with QE3 during the Legatus Pilgrimage, then another rally up is likely.
But if they do nothing, then this market will tank hard! When did you get those prints, and can you estimate the level that it would take the Dow and SPX too?
Looks like those XCI prints take a long time to be fulfilled. That might be the target after a small correction, when it ramps up into March before a bigger fall.
my next time frame for a pullback is mid feb–if we don’t get it in FEB, then it’s MARCH 8th–go to all cash, if you are afraid to ride the biggest correction you can even imagine.
Just a silly thought… 129.53 = 129… 5+3 = 8
the HOD so far 129.17 = 129… 1+7=8
What say ye?
d,
LOL – that sounds good to me….
Red, have you ever seen the numbers manipulated a bit like this? Or am I being too optimistic? I know you think we will surge higher today…
GOOG totally falling off a cliff… AAPL down – it won’t be long now…
FP alert… I see a 128.33 spy print, which could be the target for the close today? But first, I still think we will go higher to the 129.53 spy FP… and then sell off to this new print (possibly today).
lets all stop guessing.. and just let the market take us where we want to go 🙂
LOL… how true! They tell us where it’s going, so let’s us wait for it to get there.
RED…that XTC FP is still out there. I’ve found FP’s are much more common on sector charts than DIA, SPY etc. I suspect they have little to no weight compared to those.
I’ve noticed that generally the FP’s only last about a day at most, and then disappear. So if a print is showing up for many days, then I’ll have to agree with you that they probably aren’t too trustworthy.
BTW…how old is that SPY print at 106 and change?
It’s from 10-18-2010, and it disappeared the next day.
http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010/10/spy-fp-106-46-on-10-18-2010.jpg
GOOG puts GO GO GO
The 15 minute chart is almost ready to go negative. The 5 minute chart is oversold and will roll back up once the 15 goes negative and turns back up. The 30 and 60 minute charts still have room to go on the upside.
Since it’s almost 11:30 am now, the selling pressure should dry up by noon, and then the charts can all push back up together into the close. I’d now say that the 128.33 spy FP will be hit shortly and then rally into the close, hitting the 129.53 print.
red,
we are into gap fill territory right now…
Yes, and we just hit the new intraday FP of 128.33, so now what? Do will rally back up into the close, or will that 129.53 print be fulfilled Monday? I’m not sure, but my gut tells me it will happen today.
You know how they like to leave Friday on a positive note so people will go spend money don’t have over the weekend, on stuff they don’t need.
when did we get an intraday FP?? I guess we are at a cross roads? do we go up or down?? One consideration is that we havent had a weekly red candle in what seems an awfully long time….
Today a 10:45 am Richie. It was for 128.33, and it’s now fulfilled.
oh yeah, i just went back and read your post stating that – you see kids sniffing GLUE will make you miss real important posts!! golly gee!
Walmart Prison towers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lETlFe81o
Don’t be acting up in the parking lot or you might get sniped.
REd…where are you looking (data feed etc) to find your fake prints….I can’t see the 128.33 your talking about…TIQ
It’s showing up in my Ameritrade account, using Prophet Charts.
What time frames ? (1,5,10,15 min etc) or all ?
Is it still there ? Just trying to monitor so I can assist in catching these for the group here. TIA
I’m watching the 5 minute, but I’m sure they show up on all of them.
with all these intraday FP’s they are making it as difficult as possible to play short term movements….
Jan OPX day weakness playing out. Looking for more weakness thru Monday………..
You looking for a gap down on Monday Robert?
Your guess is as good as mine. The risk does seem to be to the upside.
Monday is a very ritualistic number as well. 24 is 6. 1 plus six is 7, the 11 11 and of course the addition of 9 plus the 2 is 911. So I think Monday will be the day.
Can you explain that a bit better – thanks
anybody got a good joke to TELL – this market is putting me to sleep today!
From the TSA
Year to date statistics on Airport screening from the Department of Homeland Security
Terrorist Plots Discovered 0
Transvestites 133
Hernia’s 1,485
Hemorrhoid Cases 3,172
Enlarged Prostates 8,249
Breast Implants 59,350
Natural Blonds 3
Red,
my vote is some down from here…..look at that 30 spx chart…. that macD is turning down again……….
sorry – 30 min chart on spx
Yeah, but the MACD’s are still neutral, up from oversold territory. They could go up a little more I believe. Plus, we now have light volume as most traders are leaving for the weekend. We might just close right around this area, or pop higher at the last hour of the day.
From looking quickly at the charts, we could have a wave 3 down on Monday. While we could still have a pop higher into the close, I believe it will complete a wave 2 up, and a wave 3 of 3 should be next.
So, if you’re already short, Monday is looking good for the bears. If not, then today might be your last shot at catching it. I’d wait until the close though, as it looks like it wants to go a little higher still.
do you think we make it to the FP?? or is it filled with the 129.17 high???
At this point, I’d say it’s filled. It fell short of hitting it, so it could have only been a “directional” print, not an exact level.
I think we could get to about 128.80 spy by the EOD, which should complete wave 2 up, leaving a nice wave 3 of 3 for Monday.
cool – i am short from EOD highs from yesterday….. so lets see if monday is ‘bloody’ monday or just chop monday…..
It very well could be, as it doesn’t look like it wants to breakout of this wedge right now. It might just close right about here?
while the spx chopped today – take a look at the action on the daily VIX..it is telegraphing some really bullish behavior…there is looking to break out up from a descending triangle from june of last year, and the look of the daily technicals makes me think early next week is gonna see some solid selling.
Yes, I agree. Next week should see some nice selling.
the financials here in canada – especially the royal bank – are selling off at the end of the day today on no news… while financials/ overall markets are positive south of the border. i use the canadian financials as the canary in the coal mine – they are signalling SELLING….
It’s looking bad for next Monday… LOL!
mini flash on DAX down to 7015 or so
http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=177895
you have to logged into Karl’s ticker to see screen shot…
i wonder if that is a fake print??? fp of the dax…. hummm cool!
HAL controls the OIH. HAL down, and it’s good to go. HAL earnings, pre-market Monday–HAL up and OIH up. might spill over to SPY, who knows. Or SPY gapped down on Monday, and then I have to go with, HAL earnings won’t make any impact on the indexes.
So everyone going short before close? I was thinking about shorting the Qs. They look especially weak just that they look to close sitting just above the 20ema – maybe I should wait for a decisive close below it… I’v taken too many chances of late… what is everyone else doing?
i am short spy ….. good risk reward…
was already long TZA calls and EPI puts, but added puts on AAPL, GOOG, FCX and FXI the last 20 minutes (up on all of them already) and also bought some DIA and QQQQ calls the last 30 seconds to use as a hedge. NDX and RUT lead us up the last rally, they are both showing extreme weakness vs. the other indices. RUT has already broken through below its 20 EMA/SMAs for three days now and NDX closed a hair below today. Plus both their weekly charts look like their read to roll over, with MACD and RSI about to/giving sell signals.
yes, tiny position.
I have the bullish percent charts at my back. (me hopes)
There she blows! LOL! Monday looks really ugly too me.
what blows?
GG chants [video, video, video…]
Can you post the screen shot mschemeng, as it doesn’t show up unless you login.
Red…try this one…chart itself…if it doesn’t work, post your email
http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?getimagenr=90190
use the save image as routine, and email it to RED
Nope. Here’s what it says…
No Outside Links / Please Sign In
Access to large images, or links from outside sites, are not permitted unless you are viewing the board. Please browse to http://tickerforum.org and select your image or file from the appropriate message.
Thank you,
Management
emailed…
Today is really messed up regarding direction. The thing that makes me nervous is the EUR/USD trade. They’ve been pushing the dollar down HARD to rally the market anddon’t know if they’ll push it down even farther next week. On the bright side however – I’ve been watching forex closely today – someone has had to whack-a-mole the dollar every single time the market wanted to fall. The market wants to go DOWN.
broad market wants to, can’t speak for narrow ones
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWO&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p37712538574
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p21668681989
so red,
we gapped up this morning on the spx…. and the market was prevented from the gap fill today….if we gap down on monday – would that be an island reversal for the market??
The only reason the DIA 118 FP failed, is because everyone here, missed a later updated FP—I’m guessing on that FP, that everyone missed, it has a FP of 120 or 122, imo.
Uhh, what is that? No way.
So much for $50 silver by February. At this rate we may hit $26 by next week. Silver did not hold the important $28 level and Gold did not hold the important $1,350 level. Back down to high $1,200’s? Uncertainty may be a better factor to measure silver and gold prices.
I think there may be continued weakness next week.
Also One week left for Assange to report something useful unless he has backed off.
All kinds of shenannigans to keep metals down and the dollar down at the same time. Probably the first time in world history when mints around the world are OUT of something and the price takes a dump. Shows you how much power the banks (esp JP Morgan) have now. More power than at any point since the dawn of human civilization.
From usmint.gov
Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coins continues to be temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins.
Case in point. Fortunately, the laws of physics are irrefutable…no matter how high you try to stack cards, they WILL fall…
You would think that the FP was hit. But even if it wasn’t, no big deal if Monday opens up strong and thennnnnnnn….. No big deal. Its a very occult day Monday.
Apple Chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/bearish-apple.html
MSFT Chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/microsoft-chart-analysis.html
New post is up everyone…
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