Almost A Double Top On The Dow

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The charts point to a rally tomorrow... which sounds crazy too me, but the gangsters control the non-farm payroll report data, so you should expect it to cause the market to rally.  Yeah it sucks, but what do you expect from thieves?  You know they are going to steal your money, so while logic says we should break the rising wedge and sell off... you know they won't let it happen.  Maybe next week the Bears will get to feast?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTnRddcREE4)

Red

Which means that rally isn't over just yet...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2DN8QGa4Ts)

But, I think we will dip down in the morning a little first, and then push up and close that SPY gap at 133.50, as well as hit the VIX FP of 17.25, and finally hit the double top on the DOW.  Of course it's likely that we will have an intraday pierce of the current high of 12,391.25, but we should fail to close above it on the first attempt.

I was really expecting a gap up and crap move today, but the gangsters once again tricked us all with their monopoly money used to push this pile of bull crap up higher all day long.  We all know that this thing is really going to collapse hard when the gangsters pull the POMO out this June (or sooner?), but I'm still expecting some type of decent move down before then.

Since the market is so close to a double top on the Dow, it should hit it before selling off.  Anytime the market gets that close to a double top, it rarely doesn't hit it.  In fact, most of the time it will pierce it slightly (to trap bulls into thinking it's a breakout), and then sell off for awhile.  On the daily chart, we should see a multiple day sell off after hitting it.  Then the next time it goes up to that level it will likely breakthrough for real.

Since we have until June with the POMO money manipulating the market up, we should expect the FP of 138.86 spy to be hit.  It's not the guaranteed high of course, but instead just a target that "they" said they plan to take the market too... we could continue higher after hitting it, and pulling back?  Remember what happen with the DIA 118.16 FP... we hit it, sold off for one day, and then pushed higher.

Meaning, we only know that "if" the FP is real, then we will probably hit that level well before June, as again... that's when the free money runs out!  But for now, we should see some selling come very soon.  Starting with tomorrow morning, as I fully expect the 60 and 30 minute charts to push this market down early on.

However, I've said that before and been surprised when the market rallied first (from the 15 and 5 minute charts), and didn't allow the 30 and 60 to go negative until later when all the charts lined up together pointing down.  So, it's also possible that they could gap it up in the morning on those 2 shorter charts, at which point they would quickly get overbought.

Then we should see all 4 of them rollover and push the market down into the close.  The daily is overbought too, but could go either way at this point.  If the 60 and 30 push the market down hard, the daily will follow.  The best thing the bears could hope for is a gap up tomorrow morning, as it's got extremely low odds of holding.

As for how far down we go... that's another story.

Kevin made a valid point that it looks like we are forming an "inverse Head and Shoulders" pattern on the daily chart.  This means that the coming sell off could just put in the right shoulder of this H&S pattern, which would be a higher low then the 1249 spx low.

The other possibility is that we start a Wave 3 down, as many Elliottwave people see it.  This would mean that the market would have too take out the 1249 low and put in a lower low.  Which one is accurate?  I don't know?  The stronger move for the "bullish" case would be to go down in a wave 3 and bounce off the 200ma (current around 1193) on the daily chart.

This would allow the daily histogram bars to put in a positive divergence by forming a higher low, which would allow for a nice rally up to the 138.86 FP over the coming months.  This would also allow the weekly chart to get oversold on the Full STO's, and put in a nice ABC move down.

The more "bearish" side would be to fulfill the H&S pattern and then rally higher to the 138.86 print.  This would then come much soon, possibly by mid-to-late April, as opposed to May or June.  Too me, the move up would be too fast and un-sustainable.

A lower low put in would give the bulls more time to push up slowly to the FP level, as opposed to another rocket ride straight up.  With all the negative news in the world today, I just can't see another straight up move.  But, we all know that the gangsters manipulate this market to steal our money and trick us at every corner.  So... expect the unexpected!

This means you shouldn't throw out the possibility of an inverse H&S pattern forming instead of Wave 3 down.  Just take it one day at a time, and hopefully we can figure out which is accurate when we cross that road.  For now, just look for the double top on the Dow to be hit (possibly tomorrow?) and the VIX FP of 17.25... and finally the SPY gap fill at 133.50 (from February 21st/22nd).

Good luck...

Red

 
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118 COMMENTS

  1. I am currently working on a new theory of market manipulation. The theory is that media outlets use certain key words to alert insiders to dump or buy stock. The repeating of the phrase “low volume” on CNBC the past few days is a potential key phrase. Now, in and of itself, reporting on low volume and then seeing a market top would not be too mysterious. What bothers me is how many times they repeat it and the way they repeat it, as if to say, “LOW VOLUME…HINT,HINT” or “HIGH VOLUME…HINT,HINT”.

    Do not act on this. It is a work in process.

    • There is no doubt in my mind that they use “buzz words”, (as Lindsey Williams calls them), to inform the insiders. Just putting in all together is the hard part.

      Feel free to email me your thoughts on this if don’t want to post misleading or unconfirmed information on the blog. I’ll try to help bounce my thoughts on it too, and maybe we can find a nugget of fact in it?

        • Well, you and I both know that the Illuminati control the media, so telling certain people to say keywords is too be expected. I wonder is Jim Cramer is “in the club”? He’s arrogant, has a big ego, lies all the time… perfect! But wait… he’s also a butthead! Nah… even the Illuminati have more class then to bring him into the club. LOL

  2. If we have a pullback here, I wouldn’t trust it. The timing is off. Just doesn’t make sense. If we fall off a few percent, I’ll be watching carefully for a possible move back up early April to hit the last higher prints.

    • Could be just an “inverted head and shoulders” pattern that plays out? We don’t know at this point? But wouldn’t it be ironic if we hit the 138.86 SPY on April 29th (the volume was 4,290 shares… as it 4-29-2011)

      • Yes, but they have to do something a little different…they always change stuff up a little. But based on the irrational behavior of the pumpers (or maybe rational, because they know they can get away with anything they want), I’m not ruling anything out.

        Why not screw with everyone and spike the market up and down for a while, unlike last year, in order to jack their profits up as much as possible, before illegal money printing 2 ends, then tank it and wait for illegal money printing 3? Commodities are backing off, so the only thing I think is a probability is that the dollar could gain strength. BUT, on the other hand, since they pumpers don’t care, why not just push it as far down as they can? Just thinking out loud.

        Gotta just follow the trend, I guess.

  3. i was just about to give up coming here, today is the first day my bandwidth let me log in here, in a long time…and i have high speed wireless.

  4. Remember gang, the best we will likely get today is gap fill (if we get that? Could be only gap window?). I still think they will push it up one more time. We have light volume again today, so it’s just a technical move… nothing more.

    • Yeah, today will be sketchy, if this isn’t a local top, then will be looking at mid-April for a double-top or head in a standard head & shoulders. Looking at how easily the HFTs can pump this market with illegally printed money, it’s too much of a bullish bias.

      I’m watching oil, euro and symmetrical timing. I wish ANON would hack the HFTs and tell them to tank the market. That would really be something, if they want to make a real statement.

    • Well, at least the traders on main stream media know this rally is all manipulated… and we thought we were the only ones! Ha… the whole trading community knows this P2 rally is just BS!

  5. None of the short term charts are in sync today, so it looks to be a choppy day. Later today or tomorrow they should all line up point in the same direction… not sure which way?

    If they allow the 60 to fail negative on the histogram bars, while keeping the price level up, then expect a rally tomorrow. Or, if they hold the 60 up until the 5, 15 and 30 get overbought, expect selling into the close.

    • Lately, Bull Flags have been spiking down before rallying back up to take out resistance. Although, that’s a lot of resistance to break through. With such low volume, it may just keep moving sideways until 3pm. I suspect the jobs report tomorrow will be creatively put together. So tomorrow AM could be that pop and drop.

      • Actually, we could get our pop the last hour today, and then drop tomorrow. I think we are now forming a triangle, which I believe will breakout to the upside at the EOD (within the last 2 hours).

        If we do breakout and put in a new high, and fulfill all 3 of those conditions I spoke of, then we could have a “surprise” job report? Hard too predict right now, as the norm is for the gangsters to manipulate the jobs numbers to always look good (or not so bad).

        But, at some point they will fool the masses and put out something really ugly! When is anyone’s guess?

        • Agreed. As you have said, they would like to take those stops out above 1332. If the market is ever free again, TA will actually work more often, but until then, the gangsters want a casino for retail investors.

        • I’m glad you said that, because that’s what I was thinking. Regardless that tomorrow is beginning of month, I think we’ll see a spike then drop tomorrow. VIX is WAY oversold and SPX is WAY overbought. At the very least, to let off some of the momentum to consolidate.

  6. Red I’m with a trading group and this ex-wallstreet banker who opened the group say that we are not going to sell off anytime soon. They will not let it happen just yet. Im hoping a fall collaspe like 2008.

    • Thanks for the heads up. I’m thinking that they will certainly go to the FP of 138.86 spy this year before starting any major moves down. It does make more sense to wait until this Fall anyway, as that’s when WW3 is scheduled to start, as well as our dwarf star Elenin causing disruptions as it passes between the Earth and the Sun.

      Feel free to email me anytime.

      red (at) reddragonleo (dot) com

      • Yeah Red most likely your fake print will hit hopefully in April so we can get some selling but we need a major event or announcement for that to happen.

    • prince,

      does your ‘ex-wallstreet banker’ indicate exactly WHEN they will let a sell off happen?? btw i have NEvEr heard (anecdotally or otherwise) a wall street banker EVER devulging knowledge of an impending sell off……

      • No, he doesn’t give us a hint of any sell off prospects. I’m been trading since 2005 so I have to discern a lot of what he is telling us. I traded the collaspe of 2008 and made good money. I will be prepared this time to. Wallstreet traders are bias Bull daytraders anyway until the last minute when the markets starts to collaspe and the word spread to get out. Some people are even calling for 13000-14000 dow before collaspe; we shall see. From my experience the collaspe probably will happen in Fall 2011 or beginning of 2012 hopefully Hope this helps

    • I do believe it will break Jim, as the gangster still have this market 100% controlled. However, we should still sell off some after piercing the double top… maybe to only put in the right shoulder of an “inverse H&S” pattern, or wave 3 down. But after that, I expect another grind higher to at least the 138.86 spy print.

  7. This looks like a bull flag now (60 minute chart), and the fact that it has broken out of the triangle (to the upside), would normally lead me to believe they will fulfill the bull flag in the last hour of the day, and ram this thing higher… I just have this gut feeling that they won’t do it until tomorrow morning (in fact, they could drop a little into the close instead).

    The usual BS spin on the Non Farm Payroll report and a gap open seems more likely. Run it up and put in a new high (to rape the realist… aka “the Bears”), and then sell off some into the close tomorrow now seems like the course they are planning to take.

    So, unless we breakout to the upside at the EOD, I’m now expecting them to close today about flat. This makes sense actually, as traders don’t want to take any position ahead of NFP report.

    Therefore, it’s back to the norm with made up reports, designed to rally the market. How can it not rally the market? If the report is really good… then yippee, more people are going back to work and it’s rally time again. If the report is bad… then yippee, less people are going back to work so now we will get QE3. Either way, it’s time to celebrate on wallstreet… gangster style! With Cuban Cigar’s, Thousand Dollar Hookers, Bags of Cocaine, and Penthouse Suites… yeah, it’s good to be a thug!

  8. BOys and Girls… Dont forget that… its not over until the fat lady sings!! lol… nothing goes up forever!!!…

    • nice, could be

      the thing I noticed is that “low volume” was repeated by multiple people throughout the morning, did you hear the same phrase from multiple people?

  9. omg, i going to give birth! beyond the normal manipulation…….this ~ today ~ is all Q1 bonus driven manipulation ~ absolutely.

    • What did you expect from thieves? You know they are gangsters, and stealing the little guys money is their ultimate goal (which they achieve daily). Fear not, they will have to sell off some… and soon. Double tops on daily charts are always good for a multiday pullback.

  10. is anyone else onboard with me ~ i am going to set in a voodoo hex on the “non human” algo/hft/momo’s out there causing me grief with all this window frickin dressing for Q1 and month end…. you may control price movements in a low volume environment ~ but some voodoo magic curse hex is gonna kick yo ago butts ~ oh yes, i will am gonna put one on that jaimie diamon freak, and that blankfein “doing god’s work’ ego freak!!!

    • You’re way too nice Richie. I’ve become extremely polarized the last 6 months. I’m going to put a red hot iron thru the Bernanke vodoo doll’s left eye. And then tear the limbs off with my bare hands, stomp on it, have my dog yak on it, then dump it in a pool of used battery acid. What say you?

  11. Buyer or seller of stocks in a rising interest rate environment? Somebody “important” said something about rates needing to rise .75% by end of 2011. Supposedly, that spooked the market at the end of the day. I don’t know about that.

    • Classic CNBC moment. I can imagine someone saying, “Hey Bob Pisani, ask one of those bubbleheads behind you what happened?” And, as usual, one of those bubbleheads made up some BS story. I would make nothing of it…just my humble opinion…

  12. Strange inside day red bar for the SP. Similar to the fishhook pattern Atilla likes but they seem to only work for bottoms. But the $vix has a nice bottoming pattern like it and also similar to the July and November bottoms for SP

    Anyway, it is ………..: http://www.foxsearchlight.com/28dayslater

    And the bitchin warlock from Mars agrees: http://www.x17online.com/gallery/view_gallery.php?gallery=charlie-sheen-shows-off-new-girlfriend-20110221&index=26

    No, it isn’t the real 28 but Tds from the high ala the 1987 episode.

    By the way, the SP did a 87%retrace from its 3-16 bottom to its high yesterday or to be exact .870232529. nice little 23 29 embedded combo in there. But I did the calculation by hand so the last few digits could be off but I paid enough attention to believe that they are correct.

    The comet Elenin guy was playing music from the first link so I would be very concerned that he might be connected.

    28 weeks has a very interesting release date. 5-11-2007. These films were directed and or produced by the director of 127 hours which happened to be released last year on 11-5. Remember the raven stops visiting James Franco in 127 hours on 5-01 after visiting him everyday at 8:15 in the morning. 81weeks 5months and 1 day later from 10-29-29 was yesterday and today would be two days ala 5-11. Today is also 7years 1month27 days from Facebook day and tomorrow is 7years 1month 28 days. I didn’t notice any 127s in Social Network but plenty of 28/82s.

  13. The REITS (IYR) continue to baffle me. I know they don’t track housing prices and the housing market 100%, but they should trade with it to some extent. The IYR is practically at bubble peak levels and yet housing has DETERIORATED since the BOTTOM in March 09. That makes NO SENSE and I don’t understand what is causing them to rise, unless the market is “pricing in” some massive recovery to bubble levels in housing, although there is no evidence it is occurring.

    Let’s see if IYR can make a lower high and turn lower in the coming weeks to possibly confirm a trend change.

    • Looks like we will gap over resistance this morning. I’m not surprised one bit. I didn’t know if they would open down and run it up, open flat and run it up, or open up and run it up… but I did expect them to “run it up”! LOL

  14. Everyone so quiet today.. I guess we are waiting to see if this is going to be a double top on DOW or if that resistance doesn’t hold???

    • Dee,

      LOL, i am actually yelling till i am horse, and vocalizing curses out my balcony window!!….what you are unable to hear?? hahaa…. double top….

      • Geeze Richie – I don’t even know what you are saying… I guess you are now thinking it is NOT going to be a double top…
        Still early in the day and pretty light volume…

        • dee,

          LOL,,,i was saying that i am making alot of noise ~ it is localized noise. i was resonding to your “its so quiet in here today” comment.

          as for the progression of the day ~ i am just sitting back and wondering if TA will be of any use in determining that…it has a double toppie feel though!

      • Oh and Richie – sorry I can’t hear you… I guess AZ is too far away – although there was just a sonic boom… was that you?
        Only kidding… when I used to live in Tucson sonic booms from DMAFB planes have been known to shatter my windows…

  15. Were going higher sorry. Im a bearmarket investor too, but look for higher prices until we have a 1987 day

  16. Hey Red, just heard Bob Pisani talk about poor volume in the XLF. A few minutes later, FAZ started taking off as XLF fell.

    Coincidence?

    He is one I listen to closely because it sounds like he gets fed the key phrases.

    • i dunno red….”i fell asleep in the hammock??”…..is that what they are calling SECRET meetings with chairsaatan (the bernake) these days…. i always wondered about your connections there RDL!!!! uh huh!!

  17. +7 and +12 or .6% and .9% are the spx pivot points. i’ve been following this expert, but haven’t cracked the code on the +7 and +12 …1325 + 12 = 1338, which was exactly today’s intraday high. which he predicted yesterday. i could use help cracking this code.

    • z,

      are you talkin hidden pivot points (based on calculations and rules of ABC~D) like the ones rick ackerman uses??

  18. I would like to know if you bears feel the pain yet ? and how much pain are you in ? this will determine… if its the top or not yet…. please respond if you are a bear… thanks

    • I’m not in too much pain but I also didn’t begin shorting until 1300 and got stopped out for gains as I was selling bounces, so I haven’t lost big yet, the last few days I started to take drawdown though. I don’t think the top is in, but I feel a pullback is due soon.

  19. SP made the high at the appropriate high at 1337.85 which so happens to be 88.8 pts off the 3-16 low at 1049.05. Dow at its high was up 864(88).23 pts from its 3-16 low.

  20. Astrological Star of David Formation

    August 5, 2011 STAR

    This is a very complex star, but it is not a war star. The Sun is conjunct Venus and square to the Moon and Jupiter. The malefics are not involved. This star has a water Grand Trine with Mars in Cancer, Moon in Scorpio and Neptune in late Aquarius. The earth Grand Trine includes Jupiter in Taurus, Mercury in Virgo and Pluto in Capricorn. The war in Afghanistan should be winding down, or the USA will simply start to withdraw. The 2012 election will be won on an anti-war platform. There will still be a lot of tension in the Middle East and other parts of the world as there is a Grand Cross between Mars in Cancer, Saturn in Libra, Pluto in Capricorn, and Uranus in Aries. Flare-ups are still possible, especially in the Middle East, but an uneasy peace is more likely than war.

    Incidents of corruption in business and government will still be coming to light with Mars in detriment in Cancer opposing Pluto in Capricorn. Nationalism might be on the rise with Uranus in Aries. Protection of resources and global warming will be the reason with Jupiter square to Venus. Excessive consumption of resources continues. Technology would have made many advances in renewable energy, (Mercury is in Virgo), but it is still not enough. More is needed, and especially the sharing of renewable energy technology. Mercury is retrograde and we will all suffer if we do not work together and share what we know.

    “Incidents of corruption in business and government will still be coming to light with Mars in detriment in Cancer opposing Pluto in Capricorn.”

    • We have another cardinal cross/climax going on right now but the hype machine has been turned off for this latest incarnation unlike this past summer. In fact, the silence is stunning/deafening particularly among the hypesters who were pimping it over at Daneric’s last summer.

      More info for the true believers elsewhere.

      • Whilst the market keeps on up, I’m more favouring the end of summer now, but hey what do we know…..

  21. yoohoo red,

    you got your topping tail today! april fool’s!!!!…seriously ~ you DO have your topping tail….

    • Looking very bearish right now, but not worth going short over the weekend, as you know how they like to trick us bears. Even if there is a gap down on Monday, there will away be a bounce.

  22. A-1337.75 B-1329.02 C-1332.86 ………D point calculations ~ 1324.13, with a hidden pivot point ~ 1328.49 and x pt 1330.67 (1min spx chart)

    will we make it to point D before closing//?

  23. what a blessing…for me I actually made some lunch money today going short….. I went short from 11am and kept adding position as day went up… finally… it tanked lol

  24. i like this site and all the folks, but i have stop coming here, because this site keeps locking up my browser, due to the massive bandwidth demands placed on my computer system. i never know, if i’m going to get thru to the comments section, or have to reboot the computer. i’m so sick and tired of re-booting…. cya red….contact me, when you take all these BS ads down…..i give up!!!!!!!

    • Z… I’m going to work on all that over the weekend. I need to rearrange things, as you are right… it’s too slow loading. I’ve just been busy with a lot of other things, but it’s on my list of things too fix. Hang tight.

    • Z,

      It’s the javascript & ajax that disquis uses. I’m a programmer and have to deal with this stuff…if you want to make it load really fast, you have to disable (or un-enable) javascript in your browser, which may or may not have implications for other sites you visit. If you disable, it will load very fast, but you will only be able to see comments. If you want to make comments, you’d have to re-enable javascript and reload. Sorry, but that’s the way that disquis is coded.

      Red,

      If there is some way to decrease the number of visible comments to the last 25 or 50, that would speed it up, but the limitation is disquis. It uses javascript, which is, like the name implies, a scripting language, so the browser is rendering the code in real time because it is not compiled. Might want to ask the disquis people if they have any suggestions.

  25. I’ll be working on speeding the loading time up for the site a little at a time. I’m made some quick changes already. Please answer the polling question at the bottom of this post (above the comments) to help me out.

    Thanks, Red

    • I also think your site could be sped up if you cut down the size of the article previews — too many posts on one page with lots of embedded video. If you put a text only preview like zero hedge and then loaded the videos on the main page for the post when users click on the article, it would speed things up a lot.

      • Thanks Cletus. I reduced the number of articles from 10 to 6 on the home page, but that page isn’t really important. Very few people simply stay on the home page, as they click on the post title to get to the comments.

        Then, there is only the one post on the page, and now only 40 comments instead of 100. As for the Wibiya toolbar, I can’t find any setting to make it load in the “minimized” position (for faster loading), but I will look into it further.

        I like the bar and play one of the games listed on it, but it others don’t use it the I may remove it. I’ll have too do another poll on it I guess. But first I look for other ways to speed it up. I did reduce the file size of the header and Anna’s banner just now, so maybe that will help a little too.

  26. Cobra and a few others are expecting a VERY bullish April. Seasonals are extremely bullish this month. Pomo as always will provide the steady fuel. Probably see a pullback early in the week though but shorting this market can be hazardous to your wallet….

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