ES Morning Update January 21st, 2016

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38d06f61-2ccf-44e2-8bff-0f10dab15c49This 2 hour dipped afterhours when the 60 minute rolled over and took the futures down to 1840 area.  But it turned back up suggesting it wants to rally some.

My thoughts... we have positive divergence on many charts and time frames.  This does suggest the market is about ready to go up.  But it's still go a lot of downward pressure on it from the weekly and monthly charts.  The daily is still point down, and while it's oversold, it's not showing signs of turning back up yet.  So while I think we'll still see some kind of rally I don't feel it's going to be strong like the one yesterday.

The move up yesterday was off a double bottom area (with a pierce of it) from October 2014, and it was from an important "even number" of support... the 1800 level.  Today we are in "no man's land" as the bulls haven't cleared the falling trendline of resistance and they got themselves overbought on the 60 minute chart, tired on the 2 hour chart (shown here), and mixed support on the 4 hour and 6 hour charts.

So, I think we'll drift back down today.  In fact I wouldn't be surprised if we closed in the red some today.  The key for the bulls here is to stay above yesterday's low and make a higher low today.  Then they might have a good shot of starting a rally Friday that will last more then one day.  Right now though... I just don't see it.  I see a short at the falling trendline but not a powerful short like all the others.  Probably just a day trade only.  The market wants to go up but it's tired.  And the bears are overload right now making it hard for it to go down huge again like the past few days.  I think we'll be rangebound today between yesterday's low and the falling trendline around the 1875 area currently.  A move down to 1820-1830 (that holds) could setup a nice move up into Friday.  But right now I don't see any high odds swing trade for more then one day.  Day traders, your range is that falling trendline around 1875 to the 1830-1840 area from prior bottoms.