Friday, June 14, 2024

ES Morning Update June 17th 2016


Bulls ran it up yesterday and continued after-hours until they hit horizontal resistance around 2075 where they rolled over and appear to be putting in a B wave down with the A up starting at the bottom yesterday.

MACD's are trying to reset on this 60 minute chart and the 2, 4, and 6 hour charts support more upside.  The 6 hour chart is at -2.5 and -5.0 so it should keep the market pushing up.  Maybe it tops at the zero line and rolls over Monday?

Looks like we are back on track from missing the unexpected drop late in the day on Wednesday, which suggests we continue grinding higher after this B wave down ends... which should be early this morning.  Overhead resistance is around 2087 (September Contract now) from a falling trendline.  If we reach it today by some miracle I'd be interested in shorting it, but it might not happen until Monday.  The B wave down could also drift down more today down to the 2055 prior low or 2060 if it just rides the top trendline down of the falling channel.  The new rising trendline might not hold, but I don't think it's as critical as the prior low of 2055 is... which would then make a perfect looking "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern whereas the head is at yesterday's low.

All in all it's looking good for a top either at the close today (that's "if" they rally up to 2085-2090) or Monday as originally planned.  Either way this next wave down in the market will be a Wave 3 (or C) and that's the really big and nasty one that we bears want to ride.  We all know how important that 2040 area is on the SPX and once it's broken we should see a waterfall drop start.  This move should take 18-20 days if it's like similar moves in the past, but since everything seems to be compressing in time now it might happen faster.  I'm not sure what they are going to blame it on but it sounds like the BREXIT will be the bad guy here.  Naturally we know it's in the charts first but "they" have all this planned out months and years in advance so I'm expecting something bad to come out next week or so to take the blame for the big move down coming.

Anyway, keeping it simple for today... I'll wait until the end of the day to decide on shorting or waiting until Monday.  I'll be watching the 6 hour chart to see if it looks like it's worked off enough of the oversold conditions, as well as where the market is at by 4pm today.  Naturally I'd rather wait until Monday, but we take the opportunities given to us or else we miss them.  Upside final target for today or Monday is again 2085-2090 on the futures.

Author: Red

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