Wednesday, April 17, 2024

ES Morning Update June 20th 2016


Futures rallied up to hit the falling trendline I posted last week and seemed to have stopped there this morning.

The MACD's are very overbought on this 60 minute chart and other time frames aren't too far behind either.

Good Monday Morning everyone... or is there ever such a thing as a "Good" Monday as most working people only look forward to Friday's.  Never the less us traders have a different life and we simply look forward to every day we can trade and today looks to be interesting.  This breakout over horizontal resistance in the 2075 area has very likely hit a ton of buy stops from the bears that shorted last week thinking we were going to continue down on Monday.  Now that they are taken out there's only likely to be bulls buying this open... and I doubt if there will be many.  But if they can push hard enough they might squeeze out another 10 more points on the upside by the close today... we'll see.

Guessing here on the wave count we could have a wave 4 down and then a wave 5 up to make that happen but 5 wave patterns usually happen in uptrends and I personally think we are still in a down trend and this is just a bounce... which then suggests it will only be a 3 wave pattern, or ABC.  So, if this big move up is the C wave then it might have already ended right now or might grind some today and push on up another 10 points or so.  I think it will push some more as the other charts (the 2, 4, and 6 hour) need a little more time I think to get overbought.  Also, last week we had a FP on IWM of 116.62 and I think that's our upside target.  When that hits the SPX could be up another 7-10 points I think, which should then take out the retail bears that short this open.

So, I'm going to be looking to short when the IWM print is hit... and do note that many times FP's are pierced through, both on the upside and downside (that way they don't look too obvious).  I'll ride it out if I miss the top as the next move down should be a nasty one as it's likely some larger wave 3 down (or C wave), which should at the least retest the 2015 low on 5/19, and probably break it.  But one day at a time and today by the close I hope to see the IWM print hit to short at... if not I'll look for it Tuesday morning.

Author: Red

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