ES Morning Update July 18th 2016

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Looking at the charts this morning they look like the bulls are going to take a rest today.  While the market is set to open green the MACD's are flatlined on this 60 minute chart and the higher time frame charts show a topping and rolling over on them.  This suggests the upside today will be small until a decision is made on going higher after a rest or pulling back some this week.  Hard too fight these bulls as they may still want to go higher?  And of course any dip will likely be bought so today might just be a "pause" day where the bulls don't gain too much ground, nor the bears.

Over on the SPX Cash charts (different time frames) they all show overbought conditions at extreme levels but we all know the market can stay overbought for a very long time.  I get the feeling that we're going to need some type of news event to get the selling started as the techncials don't show anything new today (just more overbought) then they did last week.  Wave count wise as I said Friday we appear to be in a 5th wave up of some kind, or a 3rd that is dividing.  If a 3rd then today's sideways action could make the 4th wave and allow the 5th wave to continue up tomorrow or later this week.  I'm not much into Elliottwave as it's too much of an "afterwards" style of analysis, and not something that can be used successfully to forecast the future.

Not much else to cover here.  I'll put up a new chart in the chartroom should we get some kind of movement whereas I can see something in the technicals to give us a better forecast.  Until then we just have watch the paint dry I guess...