Monday, June 24, 2024

ES Morning Update July 20th 2016

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Busted through the falling trendline (in green) of resistance and made a double top.

MACD's still no clue on this 60 minute chart.

Really not a lot to say today that wasn't said yesterday.  We are still in a sideways chop zone from 2150-2165... which is either consolidation for a huge rip higher (like 2300) or distribution, and I think the latter.  With the extremely bullish sentiment out there by the retail traders I just don't see some huge rally starting from here.  If everyone is bullish, and therefore have already positioned themselves long, and all the bears are asleep, who's going to be buying this rally to fuel it up higher?  Bears need to be short to be squeezed, and/or bulls need to be in cash looking to buy.  That's not the case here.  Everyone is long.  It's just a matter of time before this rolls over in my opinion.  This week or next, it's really about how many days are still needed for the insiders to unload their longs.  Once they are done the rug will be pulled out on this market and down she'll go...

The VIX (and it's related double and triple ETF's) is getting killed and hit extreme levels at the close yesterday.  The last time the level was this low was an intraday spike down on 08/05/2015 where it hit 10.88, but closed at 12.51... which was just 19 days ahead of the mini-crash on the 24th.  The market continued to chop some more from the 5th the 18th when it finally started the big crash wave move down.  If that repeats itself here then we could have another 11 days of until the big drop starts.  That would be August 4th (as those are "Trading Days", not "Calendar Days").  Due not those that between the 5th and the 18th of August in 2015 the market did start down as it broke out of it's trading range to expand it much larger.  Then the final squeeze back up was on the FOMC day, which we have another this coming July 27th.  We could see some downward movement into that date, then a pop up higher intraday (to squeeze out some bears) followed by the start of the big drop over the next few days.

You know... if only "they" would tell us their plans in advance it would certainly make it easier to know when to go short.  But gangsters like the Fed are always out to trick the sheep and steal their money it seems.  If this truly is their plan then I'd look for the range to expand from the current top down to the 2125 area, then back up to the top (or near) again before the meeting.  The period between now and then should set up a series of waves that will lead to some large wave 3 of 3 of C down (or something like that) just like the waves did right before the August 24th 2015 mini-crash.  So, hang in their bears... your time is near.

Red
Author: Red

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