ES Morning Update June 21st 2017

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I'm 0 for 2 so far this week... not good.  I'll just call today as going up, going down, or going nowhere and I'll be sure to get it correct.  LOL!  But seriously, not much is really going on.  The bull flag failed and the futures dropped back into the support zone between the blue and green trendlines.  And it's right around the horizontal trading range in the 2430's that the market has danced around for the last 2 weeks.  Neither the bulls nor the bears are making much headway it seems.  If the bulls want to get up higher, like toward that 2500 level, they really need to lure in some more shorts to squeeze... and that means they must drop it lower to suck them in.  But right now it doesn't look like the bulls are ready to give up much ground, so this tug of war might continue all week long.

Looking at the SPY chart I see that the gap fill has NOT happened yet.  This tells me the market will go lower at some point this week to fill it.  Since the futures look like they had an A wave down yesterday that found support at this mornings' low of 2428, my bet is that we are going to chop around today to put in the B wave up.  Then at some point later today or tomorrow we should see the C wave down that should revisit the green trendline, and at the same time the SPY should fill its' gap.  We might not see this C wave down until Thursday as they might pin the SPY around the 243.50 level today for the weekly Wednesday option expiration.  So, I'll stick with a slightly up day that moves slow and pins between 243.00 up to 244.00, but 243.50 is preferred.  Then we'll see if Thursday gives us our C wave down.