ES Morning Update July 5th 2017

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I hope everyone had a great 4th of July.  Now it's back to business.  There's an FOMC meeting today but it's just the minutes from the prior meeting.  Still though, many traders put off trades until it's over with as they think something new might be said.  So we could have a slow morning while we wait for that 2pm EST period to arrive.

Chartwise we are trapped in a falling channel of sorts.  Resistance is right above from the green rising trendline and the black falling trendline.  The MACD's are making lower highs on each rally attempt and are just a hair above the zero line right now, but look weak like they could rollover anytime.  Logically it's more likely to rollover before the meeting as the "unknown" scares traders.  However, there's still another light volume day expected and most bearish setups don't play out from what I've noticed.  So I'd be more into believing that we'll just trend sideways to up with small pullback bought.

After the meeting and nothing changes the charts should be back to normal.  What is normal these days though?  Normal is whatever the Fed's want the market to do I guess.  And that's "go up" 99% of the time in my opinion.  Then once in a blue moon they flash crash it.  Speaking of flash crashes they a big one yesterday on Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google (article is re-posted on my blog).  A friend told me the QQQ's actually showed a print of 67 on them too!  Talk about a crash, now that's a crash.  Of course they just call this a "data glitch" but we "red pill takers" know there's a code in those numbers for the future price of those stocks and the Nasdaq, which means a crash is coming at some point... but the "when" part is unknown.

Anyway, back to the market for today and the rest of this week.  I'm expecting more light volume, which suggests more upside then downside.  There's an "Inverted Head And Shoulders" pattern there too, which is bullish of course.  And when you add in the new rising trendline in reddish pink you'll see we are also in a triangle... and near the APEX where breakouts or breakdowns happen.  So if the Fed's don't say anything bad I have to side with the bulls and expect another run higher versus a breakdown to retest the 6/29 lows.  But I still think the bulls are running out of time and a top this month is likely.  August through October are bear months and with these new FP's put out yesterday there's certainly a coded message of something bad yet to come.