Saturday, July 13, 2024

ES Morning Update December 28th 2017

More of the same is expected today... a whole lot of nothing.  Here on this 6 hour chart of the ES Futures we can see the MACD's leveling out around the zero area where turns are common.  It could go either way really but most of the time it hooks back up.  However, being that it's the holiday's still, I just not expecting much to happen until this week ends and traders start coming back to work next Tuesday.  So this MACD could just flatline until next week when it then picks a direction.  I think it's actually a bad decision for the bulls if they decide to start some strong rally up today and take out the current all time high.  It would be much better for them to wait until next week when they have re-enforcements (aka, traders back to work), as a light volume rally right now with very few bears to squeeze (the put to call ratio suggests bears are sleeping right now and not short the market) would likely fail to hold... and even worst it might wake up some bears waiting to short and thus start a correction the bulls don't want to see.

I believe the best thing for the bulls right now is to let the market drift down today and get more oversold.  It doesn't have to be a lot but closing red multiple days in a row is good for the bulls as it sets up a nice bull flag.  I've drawn in a falling channel and you can see that a move down to around 2675 would hit the lower trendline in that channel but the overall picture would still be bullish as the channel is just the flag part of a bull flag, and as long as that level doesn't break it's all very bullish for next week.  I doubt if we see a move down there today but closing down any small amount is better for the bulls the closing green, or worst yet... breaking through the upper falling trendline of the bull flag and therefore "fulfilling" it but with much less upside movement then just waiting until next week when everyone returns and a stronger rally can start.  Anyway, that's all I see for today... a lot of nothing with new trendlines added for support and resistance.

Author: Red

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