ES Morning Update April 30th 2018

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The ES Futures are up a little this morning after a tight sideways trading range on the Friday. Since today is the last day of the month odds favor the bulls holding it above the 2640 area to close the month out positive. But with the rising pink trendline from the 2550 lows now being support I doubt if we break below it today. The green falling trendline is also support, and from a wave count this current move could be a wave 3 of some degree. It's not acting like one so far so I'm not positive on that but all in all today should be an up day. Will it finally make that run for the prior high of 2720 and/or the falling blue trendline of resistance? Time will tell of course as the day goes on but from the early look of it I'd lean more toward that taking an extra day or so to reach.

In my mind though another hit of that area should be sold going into the next day... but whether that's at today's close or sometime Tuesday is unknown? I'm thinking there will be a move down into the Wednesday 2pm FOMC meeting, and then a rip back up afterwards. There's likely to be a sell the rumor event in front of the meeting as the Fed's try to keep on schedule of raising interest rates. Whether they do or don't is not known but the fear of it should drop the market a little in front of the meeting. Then there's the tariff's with China that is still a topic in the news. Not sure about the outcome but it's just another reason for the market to have wild swings this week.

For me though, I'm bullish today and possibly early Tuesday, with an upside target of around that 2700 level. Maybe we get up shy of it today and drop on Tuesday and then rip up into the meeting? We all know how the government leaks information out when the timing benefits them. So possibly something good comes out after the close on Tuesday just when a pullback low was put in (which could easily be down to 2650 or so), and then we rally all day Wednesday?

Again, I don't know the timing of it all but do think we'll go up today to some higher level and then we could either continue that into Tuesday morning and rollover in the afternoon or just drop right at the open and continue down all day. So to keep it simple I'll look for a high today near the close to decide on a short into Tuesday, and then a pullback low around that 2650 area for a long. It will be another choppy week but with great opportunities for both bulls and bears. Good Luck.