ES Morning Update January 18th 2019

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The futures are up again this morning after a late day pop and drop yesterday occurred on some fake news report (put out to cause a bear squeeze I'm sure) about the government shutdown ended. We should hit the FP today on the SPY from the looks of things and there's a new one that showed up this premarket morning around 8:00am EST showing a high of 266.55 on the SPY, which is a bit higher then the 264.85 FP from the 9th of this month that I have. Since this one is so close it could be hit today, or next Tuesday at the latest (closed on Monday for a holiday).

Usually those kind of prints that are so close to the current price act like a magnet and pull the cash market up (or down) to hit that level, so today has been odds I'd think. Regardless of whether that's a real FP or not it's pretty clear that the 264.85 FP from the 9th is a real one as it's within spitting distance of being fulfilled right now. Next week I expect a move down to start but I'm not sure yet on how far it drops? It depends on if this new FP this morning is hit today or not? If not, and if it's not hit on Tuesday either, then we might only drop to 2600 SPX or so and then back up for that FP later in the month.

I'm just thinking out loud here on how SkyNet could trick us all by showing us the FP and then not hitting it today or Tuesday. I'd prefer to see the FP hit on Tuesday with another green close (I want one for today too of course, and we should get one due to the SPY needing to be pinned where the most options expire worthless). If you give me that (a green close today and Tuesday), with the new upside FP hit, then I'll become much more bearish and expect only a bounce on the move down to 2600 SPX for a lower high, and then another drop lower toward 2450 or so in the coming days to weeks. Anyway, I cross that road when we get there and adjust accordingly. Have a great weekend.