ES Morning Update February 5th 2019

0
577

The bulls continue to grind higher inch by inch as the bears wait patiently for them to tire out. I myself am not doing anything until I see a good bearish setup appear... or bullish setup, but that's not likely without a good pullback. Time is the most tiring thing for the bears setting by waiting to pounce and the bulls have do a great job of extending the "time window" for the top of this move to frustrate the bears immensely.

What I think will happen is a tricky surprise drop one day this week that gets fully retraced back up but fails to make a higher high. It would trick both bulls and bears I think as bears will likely miss the first part of the drop and will chase it down. Then when it hits one of the many support levels lover the bulls that missed the entire rally up will pounce and go long expecting 2800+ to be next. But the rally up should fail and just make a slightly lower high to tease the bulls into thinking a strong move is just getting started, and this double top should scare the bears out of their shorts too. If I were SkyNet this is the move I'd play out between now and next week.

Then the drop that follows that lower high should go down hard toward the 12/26 low to lure in the most bears and panic the bulls out. But I do not think there will be a lower low put in... a higher low is more likely. From that low a very powerful rally up into the summer should start. I'm forecasting out too far here I know, but since there's not much I can say about today's expected action I thought I'd take the time to speculate on "what would SkyNet do", as we all know this market is trickier then the devil himself.

For the short term I'm still waiting on a sell to setup, which I think needs to go higher... maybe up to the 2730-2740 zone? In the end it's just a "feel" or best guess for taking that short. As always, I'll add new up to date information in the chatroom as the each day progresses. These past few days have been boring but all bull market are boring. It's just the nature of things I guess. Have a great Tuesday.