ES Morning Update February 22nd 2019

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Some small cracks in the market showed up yesterday but it still doesn't look ready to drop hard yet. Today it's probably going to play the ol' "pin game" to make the most options expire worthless. Since it's around the 278 SPY level right now before the open I'd have to guess that some where between 277.50 and 278.50 would be the pin spot for the close today. The market is very tricky at this point as if it goes sideways long enough it could actually work off enough of the overbought conditions to continue higher. Yeah, I know you bears don't want to here that but it's possible.

Ideally though we go up some more today to get closer (but not go into) that 2800 level on the SPX and the 26,000 level on the DOW. Both of those even numbers seem to be very tough resistance for the bulls right now. A final move up near them might just be the exhaustion point needed for a nice drop to start next week. It's still not an easy call here as every time you think it's ready to drop it fools you with some small pullback one day that get reversed back up the next day. Yesterday and this morning is a perfect example. Today will likely be boring as SkyNet holds the market in place all day with a bias to the upside... hopefully (if you want a good short at least).

I don't have anything else to add. We are at the spot and time period where a turn should happen. I've been expecting today or yesterday to be the top and so far it's looking like it will be on schedule. But a move down to put in another red close on the SPX and DOW would change that as it would be more consolidating by the bulls in an attempt to work off the overbought conditions.

I'll post more updates in the chatroom throughout the day if needed, but that's the forecast for today. A move up to just under 2800 and 26,000 with green closes would have a high odds short going into next week. Have a great weekend. P.S. If the bulls broke-through those resistance levels and closed above them today I would stand pat and not short as resistance could become support. I'd wait until next week to see if it was a fake out pierce through or if it holds.