The ES has gotten right into the prior resistance zone between to the two horizontal blue lines. This will be the real test for the bulls as a push through will squeeze out some bears, but likely exhaust the bulls at the same time and cause a reversal anyway. I'm showing you the upside down chart again to get a different perspective of the market. It clearly looks like a bear flag to me and gives me the feeling that it's going to push through that lower blue trendline.
That would be a squeeze on the bears short right now. The MACD's don't yet show any positive divergence on them so it's quite possible that we do get another push higher today (again, lower on this chart as it's upside down). It's really a tough one to forecast right here as there's a possible downside FP on IWM showing a low of 146.42 from Tuesday, but is it a real one or just a late fill? Only time will tell. There's lots of resistance overhead here but that doesn't mean the bears can't get squeezed first before dropping back down. For the record I took a short yesterday on IWM via a put spread.
I was up a little on it most of the afternoon, but this morning I suspect I'll be back to breakeven or down a few pennies as it's looking to open around the same level I short it at. The only good news with it is that it's making lower highs on each bounce while the SPY/SPX/ES is making higher highs. May thoughts are that we'll drop some today but it probably won't take out yesterdays low. If we chop like this today and even tomorrow possibly I'd guess that they plan on taking it up higher next week.
So maybe one more move down on Monday or so (like a C wave with today and tomorrow doing a choppy A and B wave), and then we go up into next week. I've just found that it's never that easy to have a move down (like the one from May 1st to June 3rd) that wakes up the bears, then a clean bounce to allow them to short the next drop. Most of the time the bounce is full of wild swings and fake out moves to prevent the bears from catching the next real drop. Anyway, have a great day.
