Saturday, July 13, 2024

ES Morning Update August 19th 2019

The futures are up nicely this morning as the bulls woke back up last Friday. But there's a lot of overhead resistance waiting for them from a falling yellow trendline and horizontal orange trendline, as well as a rising blue trendline that starts at the December 26th, 2018 low and connects to the June 3rd, 2019 low. So I don't see it just blasting on up much higher today. In fact at the open the 60 minute chart will be quite overbought so at best the bulls hold this level all day into the close and then try to gap over this multiple resistance zone tomorrow. I really don't expect it to happen that easily for the bulls. Instead I suspect they will turn the ball back over to the bears tomorrow and we'll go back down again.

Just a guess of course, based on looking at the charts and all the resistance overhead. Plus the "possible" downside FP on the SPY from Friday as well as the "possible" upside FP's from last Wednesday that have been hit this premarket morning. One was for 292.46 and the other was 292.55, which are now fulfilled (premarket) with a current high of 292.65 around 7:37 am today. Of course it should be retested during normal trading hours as well, and I think it will be. So while I never know the timing of "when" any given FP or "possible" FP will be hit they are still something I watch closely whenever the market starts turning and going in that direction.

Since I feel the "possible" downside FP is real too, and the fact that the market will be overbought today with multiple overhead resistance levels layered above I have to think we will be going back down to this new "possible" FP from Friday at 3:51 pm of 284.71 at some point this week. If the Wednesday upside FP's took until today to get filled then that's 3 days out, so possibly we'll hit the downside FP in 3 days as well... or less? Hard too say about what the bulls will do up here this close to the two prior highs as triple tops aren't nearly as strong as double tops.

So it's possible I guess that they some how back down small today or tomorrow and then gap over the resistance zone Wednesday to run all the stops on the bears. Then the market rolls over and starts the drop toward the new FP into Thurs/Fri of this week. Or the bulls don't make it and just fail at the triple top today and start the down move tomorrow. Tough call for sure. Have a happy Monday.

Author: Red

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