ES Morning Update January 13th 2020

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The futures are up this morning, which doesn't surprise me. I wasn't expect much to happen until at least after the January VIX contract expires this coming Wednesday morning and possibly the Index monthly options on Friday. I don't know if another new all time high will be made or not, or if the SPX reaches the all magical 3300 level, but that's not as important really as the "time cycle" is... which again points to later this week or early next week as the most likely period for a pullback in the market to start.

I don't see anything big starting today or tomorrow as the current VIX contract must first expire so the February one can start. Then at some point in the next week or so the market makers will let the SPX/DOW drop to spike the VIX up again so they can repeat the process of selling naked calls on it.

It doesn't happen every month as some are more bullish then others. But I'd say it happen two thirds to three quarters of the time for each 12 months of every year. The months that are more common for weakness are of course the higher odds ones. That would be February of course, sometimes March.

May has seen some nice drops in the market too, but April, June and July seem up more years then down. August and September has seen nasty drops as well as October. Normally November and December are quiet months but not in 2018. There's no way to be 100% sure on which months we'll see late pullbacks but it's safe to say that when the market is overbought and in a month where it's common to happen you have to be on the lookout for such a drop.

Remember that the market makers need volatility to make money, and markets that go straight up do not help them (just folks with 401k plans basically). So again, I do expect much action early this week but a sell signal could start setting up late in the week. I'd like to see some decent swings up and down (basically to make an A wave down and B up of some degree) to get the signal started. Hopefully I'll be able to see it before it happens. Have a blessed day.

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