ES Morning Update January 30th 2020


The bulls are risking losing the large B wave up scenario here this morning. If the market drops below the prior low this Monday it would kill that wave count as a drop to 3200 or lower could happen. Right now I'm counting the ABC down from the high last Wednesday to the low this Monday as a large A, which means we are in the large B up currently. If it ended at the highs yesterday then we are in the large C down now.

My thoughts were that the large B up would subdivide into smaller waves and top out early next week with a double top but right now that's not looking very promising. However, it's still possible if the bulls don't lose this double bottom area from the the low on Monday. I see a "possible" FP on the QQQ this morning, which looks more like a late fill from the close yesterday. But it's still worth mentioning anyway.

So, if this main scenario holds of a large B up into early next week, which would currently have the small A up of large B up finished yesterday, and the small B down of large B up currently in play, then a small C up of large B up should start today... and probably subdivide into 5 smaller waves as well. This is still what I see happening, but if we drop in a large C to 3200 or lower then that's out the door of course and I'll then have to adjust from there.

For now we wait to see I guess as if my scenario plays out a small C up of large B up should start either today sometime or early tomorrow at the latest. Today is actually the best odds, as going sideways all day would make a bear flag and suggest a drop tomorrow to kill my wave count and head for 3200 or lower. That's all I have for today. Good luck to bears and bulls alike.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Loading Facebook Comments ...