Another tricky move yesterday as we did get an early rally that looked like it might be going up to the FP on the QQQ, but then it rolled over and dropped steady the rest of the day, which I thought was at first just some B wave with the C up into the FP coming today. But that didn't happen as the market broke down in what is likely my Extra Tiny Wave 3, inside Tiny Wave 3, inside Small Wave C of Medium Wave 4.

I posted that chart on yesterdays update and it's tracking quite well so far... except for the rally up to the FP on the QQQ of course. When it was obvious that it wasn't going to go back up I took a small short. I hate chasing the market after it's already dropped 50 points but since I know we are going to the FP on the SPY I knew it would be worth the risk.

I think we will hit that 483 FP by this Wednesday, so I would not look for much of a bounce today. It's a short no matter how much it bounces and is a gift to the bears. I'll be looking for another spot to short again today but I doubt if I get much of a bounce. When we hit (and pierce) the FP of 483 on the SPY I expect to see a rally up of 61.85 of the drop into the end of this month.

We'll then likely pullback again for a higher low in the first or second week of May. The should be a wave 1 up and 2 down, so after that pullback I'll expect to see a super strong wave 3 rally up for a wave 3, which should go into June and beyond probably. Although I didn't get my ideal entry for the short I still got a small bit of it, and will really be excited to catch the long once the FP is hit.

Have a blessed day.

What a disaster for the bulls last Friday. I thought we would rally back up as the technicals where getting down in a zone where "turns" back up commonly happen, but it instead we took another large move down. I have to now rethink what is happening here. But first, let me share another FP on the QQQ that appeared Friday morning before the open.

This FP is for 445.70, and pretty much is a full reverse (about 95%) of the drop on Friday. Now that's ONLY on the QQQ, and it's stronger then the ES, so if this happen I don't think the ES will recover as much... maybe 75-80% of the move down? The ES is in a falling channel, whereas the QQQ (Nasdaq) is in more of a sideways channel. If the FP is hit early this week on the QQQ I think we might reach 5220-5230 on the ES, but not all the way back to the 5245 zone where it spent the premarket session at Friday.

Ok, so I said I have to rethink everything... which I have. I was stubborn and thinking that we'd only get a small pullback (which we have... so far) and then we'd go back up again and continue the grind like we've done for months now. But over the weekend I stepped back and re-thought about everything, and I've concluded that it's very likely that we are now in the 5-10% correction after all.

My FET of 5334 was a direct hit with the current all time high being just one point shy of it, so why would I think that a target that important would just produce a minor dip? I should have woke up and slapped myself and said "hey dummy, it's time for the 5-10% correction now", but I guess I've been so used too all the dips being bought, and new all time highs following, that I couldn't see the forest for the trees.

However, God gave me a good wake up last week with a second FP on the SPY that only lasted one day before disappearing. Guess where it was? The same 483 zone as the prior one back on March 1st.

Here's the first old one from March 1st below...

Now that's 2 Fake Prints showing the same level that disappeared within one or two days. Isn't that interesting?

Of course it's a signal that's telling all the insiders where the market will bottom at whenever the correction starts. So are we in the correction now? I have to think the odds are good that we are indeed in the 5-10% correction right now, and "if" we get some move up to the QQQ FP of 445.70 early this week I think it will be the last strong bounce before we have what will probably be a C wave drop (non-stop) that will hit the 483 SPY FP, which will be roughly 4880 or so on the ES (4830 or so on the SPX).

I've been clearly wrong on this pullback as it's more then that... it's the correction that everyone has been waiting for now for months. We could just go straight down to the SPY FP this week without any bounce back up to the QQQ FP, but the last 2 weeks the QQQ's have been a gold mine for FP's and they have all been hit within a few days, so I have no reason to believe this one won't be hit to. I just don't know the "when" part, but if it happens Monday it will NOT likely be the start of a big squeeze up to new all time highs as the history of those FP's don't support that, but instead they have all marked a "turning point".

Just look at all of them. They all got hit, pierced, and the market reversed back up the other direction. Why would this one be any different? When it's hit it I do think we'll turn back down again from it. The market will likely show NO FP whenever it's really going to run up and breakout to a new high and start the next multi-month grind higher, but that could be a month away.

The very fact that this FP appeared last Friday is proof to me that we are not ready for another trend move up. It will only be another short squeeze that ends and gets reversed back down again. How low we go is anyone's guess? Maybe the market isn't in the 5-10% correction now? But the second 483 FP is telling me we are indeed in it, and all of these wild swings up and down look a lot like a whole bunch of wave 1's down and 2's up before a wave 3 of a 3 of a 3 (or A's and B's and then a C of C.... you get the idea). Here's what I see as possible with the waves...

Yes, we could be setting up a nasty crash like wave down coming this week, and it might be over with by mid-week. I really am kicking myself for not seeing this but I'm human and make mistakes, and this market is not easy to figure out. But if we do get one more move up early this week I think it's the ideal short before we drop to the 483 FP on the SPY later this week.

Here's the bigger picture wave count on the daily chart of the SPX cash...

That dashed pink rising trendline will be strong resistance when it's hit this summer/fall, and it might mark the final high for Medium Wave 5?  The biggest Fibonacci Extension Target is at 6441.96, but who knows if that final leg up gets hit or not?  But I'll certainly be excited to ride that long out as it will be a huge money maker, and way easier then this correction.

Have a blessed day.

The market appears to have bottomed now as I was thinking it would. Looking at the 2hr, 6hr and daily chart the all support a lot more upside. While bears are likely shorting this bounce I don't see again big drop. The technicals look very bullish now The 2hr chart below looks bottomed to me.

And here on the 6hr hour chart the MACD and RSI have plenty of room to run up higher today and early next week.

The daily chart never reached oversold, but that's normal in a strong bull market, which we are still in I think. The RSI reached the 50% mark and turned back up yesterday, but the MACD's haven't yet made that turn. That doesn't mean it won't, and it is a lagging indicator, so another 1-2 days of upside should hook it back up.

The entire week plus correction is a bull flag as well, so unless some other big negative news comes out I see no reason to expect any more downside. I went in to detail yesterday on "why" this pullback does have any of the patterns that real corrections have. Everything says it's just a pullback and not some 5-10% correction.

As for the weekly chart, it's still very overbought, but there's NO negative divergence on it, so I suspect we are going up into June or so "in price" and down on the MACD "in volume weight". The RSI will likely go down too as the market goes up.

Have a blessed day.

The CPI didn't disappoint as we got a quick spike up on the QQQ to hit the FP and then reversed back down hard by the open. We spent the day down near the low but we didn't breakdown on the Nasdaq by making a lower low then the 4/4 low, and on SPX we pierced that prior bottom but closed up higher.

The DOW did close below it and so did the Russell, but overall the bulls have held the most important support zone. If they continue to hold then odds are good that the pullback is over with and the 5-10% correction is delayed for sometime in the future. I did several posts on Twitter throughout the day yesterday with my thoughts, and the one below is super important.

If the bears can close below the April 4th today or tomorrow then we are likely back on for the 5-10%, but if they don't then I expect to see new highs in the coming days... possibly this Friday? But that might be asking for to much in just 2 days. Next week though I do expect the bulls to rip it up again and I'll start looking for the next short term FET, which is at 5435.93.

This again, assumes the current low holds, and think there are good odds that it will. In fact, I posted in the chatroom yesterday my reasons for thinking that...

"For the record, I did not short this. I couldn't as it happened when the cash market wasn't open. But if I would have shorted it I would have already closed it at the double bottom opening area. This entire multi-week pullback has been a disaster for the bears. A real correction would have NOT had all the big squeezes every day after a fast drop. It would have started slowly on the downside (NO fast mini-crash like drops) and would have very small bounce.

It would have done this for 3-5 days and then accelerated into the last 6-9 days with non-stop drops. After about 8-11 days the bottom would be in... at least for the first big wave. Then a strong 50-61.8% retrace over 3-5 days would follow. We've NOT seen any of that. This smells of a bear trap... and if that NDX Seasonality Chart is right we'll see new highs very soon. "

As you can see my thoughts are based on my past experience with seeing real corrections start and finish. History will show you that most correction do NOT start off like what we've seen in the past several weeks. The current pullback we've had is not normal for a real correction.

All of the fast drops were done to wake up the bears in my opinion so they can be used as fuel to squeeze in the near futures. Like I said, most real corrections start slow and don't have many good bounces. They don't wake up the bears until the bottom when it capitulates. It's the idea of putting a frog in boiling water as he will surely jump out. That's what we've had recently with these fast drops.

Real corrections start slow, meaning you put the frog in cold water and slowly raise the temperature until it boils. By the time the frog realizes that the water is hot it's too late as he's already cooked. Same thing happens in the market as the bulls will keep buying the slow pullbacks thinking it's going to bounce soon, but after 9-11 days the market could be down 10% and the bulls will then throw in the towel and go short. That's when the low will be in and a strong bounce will follow.

In conclusion, I think we are going up today, tomorrow and next week, similar to the prior correction back in early January of this year.  The weakness should be reversed back up by the close.

Have a blessed day.

WOW! What a crazy day yesterday (and Monday). I had hoped that the market would rally up into the CPI and then tank after it, but Mr. Market threw a curve ball yesterday with that fast midday drop. When it happened I posted on Twitter that I thought the correction was canceled for now as it appeared that we would be going into the CPI with a low, but then late in the day the drop reversed right back up to close about flat.

That rally still did not take out the FP on the QQQ at 444.17, so we didn't close at a high going into the CPI either. Therefore anything is possible... meaning the correction is still on the table as all we need to do is to have a rally up through the FP to run the stops on the bears, and then we can still reverse back down later in the day to start the correction.

The market was very sneaky yesterday as if it would have closed down at the low I do think the correction would have been canceled (for now at least), but it's still open now and can happen. I expect to see a lot of wild swings up and down today as the prior CPI had like 4 or 5 big moves if I recall. I mean we could drop 50 points in a flash and go back up 50 points above the flat line (the spot the market is at prior to the CPI). That's a 100 point swing in total, and it could happen several times today before picking the real direction.

I still lean down as the charts tell me the market is tired and will have a correction start soon. I covered them all on Mondays post and nothing has really changed since then. But I also think that we will first go up to take out the stops on the bears, and then go down with the bulls trapped long.

How high is something I just don't know? It should be a lower high, which might be by just a few points? But technically I think it should stop around the 5308 high from 4/4... meaning it might pierce through it a few points but is more likely to stay under it. I would love to see it taken out a little and get really close to the all time high as that would scare the bears out and suck in the bulls... "the ultimate trap".

My plan is to get a short but it must be up around that 5300+ zone before I will risk it. Then I'll take my chances to see if the correction happens or not.

Have a blessed day.

A "pause" day yesterday, which today could be the same if the market is waiting on the CPI tomorrow. I would prefer to see a move up to hit the FP on the QQQ beforehand, which again is around 5280-5290 on the ES, but we might not see it until after the CPI? The market is waiting for something to spark the next move, so there's nothing to do now but wait.

Keep in mind that the FP could be hit in the premarket session tomorrow and it could be reversed by the open. That has happened before where the futures reaches some level (to run the stops) but the cash market doesn't. Clearly that's a issue for people (like me) that don't trade futures as then one might miss the FP to take a short. Nothing else to cover so I'll just end it here.

Have a blessed day.

We rallied as expected on Friday and hit the FP on the QQQ and then we pulled back about a third of the move up. I spent Friday looking closely at all the charts and while I said on Friday that we appear to be starting the much wanted 5-10% correction, I then posted on twitter that it's not ready yet.

Meaning that it's possible that there's one more higher high left before the correction starts.  I'm not sure or not if we get it as there's a ton of resistance overhead in the 5280-5290 zone on the ES, and if... just "if" we can get through it we should squeeze up to a new high and then rollover and start the correction.

What do I think the odds are on that happening Monday or Tuesday?  Probably only 10% or so.  Therefore I think there's a 90% chance that zone will stop the bulls and that we'll rollover from there and start the correction.  That drop on Thursday just buried the RSI on the short term charts and woke up too many bears I think, which is why we need to go up to hit that zone first to scare them out.

I've been studying the weekly and daily charts over the weekend and everything is setup for the bears to start the 5-10% correction now.  How fast it drops I don't know?

It might be similar to the 7/27/23 to 10/27/23 correction. I don't think it's going to last that long but it could I guess? Or something more like 8/31/21 to 10/1/21 for the correction, which again may or may not last the same amount of time as that one did back then. The only problem is that both of those periods were long and drawn out in time, and typically the market will flip back and forth between fast drops and slow one's... meaning we are overdue for a fast one.

Short term I'm thinking we'll rally up to the 5280-5290 zone today or Tuesday and then pullback from there, which might be into the CPI Wednesday before the open. Or, we could skip the rally and just do the pullback into the CPI, but with everyone short now, and looking for a large drop because of the Solar Eclipse, I have too think we need that last rally before any large drop.

If we go up today, or into the close on Tuesday, and reach the 5280-5290 zone, then we should pullback from it as I just don't see the market getting through that tough resistance zone.  After that we should go down.  Whether that's in front of the CPI or after it I don't know.  My point is that the market will likely go the opposite direction after the CPI, from the direction it goes into it.

I will add though that if we rally into the CPI the risk is much higher that the drop will be ugly... meaning it could take out the low from last Thursday.  I'm talking about a mini-crash where we get down that 5-10% in a few days. Yes, that's possible, but I have no way to predict that in advance so I'll adjust to whatever is given.

My Fibonacci Extension Target is pretty much hit as it is at 5334.39 and the high is 5333.50, so it's shy by less then a point, which is a direct hit in my book.  Of course one more higher high to pierce it would be a wonderful short, but I don't see it happening.

Timing is super important. If the market "bases" for a week under that level and then rips higher then it can continue as it will have formed a lot of support and will have reset larger term overbought charts. But if it does it today, it's not built a base and will fail to hold and will rollover. Could it do so into the CPI Wednesday... sure but that's been done many times in the past where the CPI produced a big turn, so I give it very low odds.  More then likely we won't get through 5280-5290 and it will be hit Monday.

I'm trying to cover all the possible moves the next few days and will just adjust to whichever one plays out. If we go down into the CPI we'll get more oversold, and it should produce a rally back up from it.  But that will only be short term as the daily and weekly charts are very overbought, so another lower high from the CPI would be likely.

Let's go over some charts now. First is the weekly...

Notice how the RSI has finally turned down from going up and up and up for what seems like forever.  The MACD is also "hooking over" now, which is a sign to me that the market is tired and needs a deeper pullback before racing off to 6000 and beyond.

Now the daily...

This coming correction should pullback about 38.2% of the rally up from the November 2023 low to the current high, which is roughly 4870 on the ES.  I've drawn it on the chart as lasting about month but it could be faster or longer in time, I just don't know?  There's a turn date on April 21st and then other on May 2nd, so maybe it's one of those dates that puts in the low?

Next is the 6 hour chart...

Notice how oversold the RSI got on that drop, and how the MACD went below the midpoint level, which in the past has produced a nice rally back up for days to weeks.  But with the weekly and daily getting tired and looking like they want to rollover here it suggests we could be ready now for a nice correction.

Lastly is the 2 hour chart...

On it you can see that we could rally up to the 5280-5290 area Monday from the oversold MACD's and RSI, but again... the weekly and daily charts are tired and won't likely support much more on the upside until we get a deeper correction.  Any rally up to that zone will not likely get through it.  It should fail and rollover again into Tuesday.

No one knows for certain when a nice correction is going to happen as bull market are known for killing the bears as they short all the way up.  But currently all the technicals tell me there's a really good chance here that the high is in now, and that we are going to start the 5-10% correction this week.

Also...

The FP on the QQQ never hit on Friday.  It got close but missed by a little.  That's another reason to think we'll go up on Monday to hit and pierce it.

Have a blessed day.

I'm finally back online after having a tornado come through my area Monday the 1st, which isn't an April Fools joke. It was fast and short lived, about 30 seconds I'd guess. Not something that should ever happen in Ohio with all the hills I have around me. I didn't get any damage to my home but the local volunteer fire department got hit hard. Many other buildings were too, as well as signs down, and of course trees. Power lines went down as some pole were snapped in half. The power company managed to get it back on yesterday morning thank goodness.

As for the market, we had a nasty drop after 2pm when the Fed's talked talking about not lower rates. The market was rallying up nicely in front it, but it came shy of hitting a new high and then "bam" down it went. Oddly I got another FP on the QQQ that told us the target. Here it is...

Now I did not think that we would go straight down to the lower one that fast but the market just caved and dropped all the way into the close yesterday and hit that downside FP... truly amazing! It was a very nice ABC move down from the current all time high, and it's keeping my FET of 5334 intact so far as well.

That's really what I expected as it's such a large one. That level is calculated from the October 2022 low to the July 2023 high, so it's a strong one and should produce a 5-10% correction in the coming weeks. Short term though we will likely go back up again today, and possibly into Monday... which is the Solar Eclipse is case you forgot. And it looks like they are giving everyone the upside target again with other FP that came out after the close yesterday.

The new FP on the QQQ is at 444.17, and another lower high, which tells me that we've likely topped out and the 5333.50 high is the top. From here going forward we should start going down. That's of course after we rally back up to the new FP, which might happen today from the Non-Farm Payroll Report before the open?

I don't know for certain that the new FP will be hit, but all the others have, so this one should too. My lean is to see it hit on Monday, but I won't rule out that we could get 90% of it done into the close today and the rest is just a gentle float higher Monday to make sure there's no bears left before the next leg down starts. Have a great weekend and get ready for some more wild swings next week as I think the much wanted 5-10% correction is finally starting.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday did indeed pullback after hitting my FET of 5334, which the technicals supported it as well because the RSI and MACD was overbought on the 6hr chart and the 2hr. They will likely become oversold today, which is great as the QQQ pulled back too and is getting closer to hitting and piercing the FP of 441.00, which is where I'll go long again at.  Here's that chart...

As far as "where should the market rally to next", I have a shorter term FET of 5367.59, which would be my best guess. Beyond that would be 5435.02, but that's really reaching in my opinion. The larger FET of 5334 is likely going to keep the market in a range until the next turn date can hit, which is the 8th, or the 21st (19th is the trading day as that's a Sunday).

I can see the FET of 5367.59 hit but I don't see the higher one just yet as the 5334 is a larger Fibonacci Extension Target, so a nice pullback should happen from it.  We could dance around for weeks though and pierce by 30-50 points I guess, but we should not start another large rally up until a good pullback happen from it.

So I'm thinking the market will be in a 100 or so point range for the next 2-3 weeks, whereas it doesn't make any new significant higher high. Maybe the next rally up only makes a double top? That's what I'm leaning toward. Everyone will short it, but it won't pullback that much and instead will just continue in that 100 or so point choppy range.

It could top next Monday on the 8th but I get the feeling it will pullback that date to skip it and wait until Friday the 19th (OPEX) and then Sunday night in the futures it might squeak out a slightly higher high (the 21st is the exact turn date) but by the open on Monday the 22nd it's below Fridays high. It's from that high that I think we will get our 5-10% pullback. This of course is "if" this all plays out like I think it's going to, which is anyone's guess.

The month of May is weak anyway from a Seasonality stand point, so I'd lean more toward the pullback starting in the second half of April and going into May instead of topping on the 8th and having most all of April in the correction.  The last 11 days of the month would be more likely in my opinion, not 22 days of it.

As for today, I'm on the lookout for the FP on the QQQ to get hit as the MACD's and RSI will likely be oversold on the ES when that happens too.  Then I'll go long again and wait for them to get overbought again to exit.  I wouldn't be shocked to see just a fast 2-3 day squeeze and then back down again into next week.  Rinse and repeat to frustrate bulls and bears both.  Then rally into OPEX on the 19th for a higher high of some amount.  Maybe it goes nuts and reaches the 5435.93 FET but again... I lean toward the lower one at 5367.59.

Have a blessed day.

Last Friday was a nothing day as the market just went to sleep and didn't move up or down more then a few points. It's been a week now of "basing" to setup the next big move, which should hit my Fibonacci Extension Target of 5334 on the ES (5296 SPX).  And it actually did in the Sunday futures... finally.

But there is still that one downside FP on the QQQ yet to be hit at 441.00, which will likely be pierced too. I don't know when that's going to happen of course as with the futures made another new higher high in the Sunday night session, and hitting my FET of 5334, I'm really puzzled as to why the FP wasn't hit first.

Possibly they don't plan on hitting the FP until later, and from a much higher price?  Ideally we continue this rally into next Monday, April 8th as it's a turn date. But I cannot rule out that instead we only rally into this Wednesday or Thursday and then pullback Friday and next Monday to bottom there instead (maybe that's where the FP is hit?).

This common theme happened a lot in 2021 as every time the market got close to a turn date it would top prior to it, and drop into it so it became a low and therefore could continue the rally up.

This could happen again, there's no way to know for sure. If so, then I'd look for the next turn date on April 21st and May 2nd after that. Eventually we will top into one of them instead of bottoming, and then we'll see a good correction of 5-10% I think. For now though I'm still sitting in cash and I'll continue waiting on the FP on the QQQ to get hit first, and that's where I'll take my shot again at another squeeze higher.

Along the way I will miss a lot of moves up and down but I have had much better success being patient and waiting for the right time to enter a trade then just trying to always be in one.  If I'm wrong the fake print, then so be it.  I also follow the technicals and we have not reached an oversold enough position on the 2hr or 6hr chart in my opinion to produce another 2-3 day 100-150 point squeeze.  (In fact they are looking close to overbought now.)

To me, this looks like a short as it's hit my FET and we are at the beginning of a new month where it's common (not always) there are "turns" that happen.  I mean that over the past many months I've noticed that around the end of the month (29th, 30th, 31st, or 1st) the market will turn.  It might not be very much, but it does happen a lot.  Possibly we pullback only to the FP from this new high?  Hard to say for sure.  I'm not really interested in shorts right now, so I'll just let this play out.

Have a blessed day.

Good Ol' SkyNet sure loves to play tricks on me as we had an early flush down yesterday on the QQQ to get close to the FP at 441.00, but stopped short about a point and went sideways the rest of the day making a bear flag. I told everyone in the chatroom to look for a late day flush from that bear flag to hit the FP, where I was planning on getting long.

Then out of nowhere we had a squeeze up the last hour instead... what a sneaky move! I did not get long as I trust the FP's and was patiently waiting for it to be hit before I take the next trade. It did this sneaky move before on Monday (from last Friday's FP) when it got close to hitting the higher FP on the QQQ at 443.44, but again failed and rallied up late in the day into the close. Then on Tuesday morning it dropped to hit and pierce the FP and the reversed back up the rest of the day. Tuesday morning also gave us the new upside FP as well, which again failed to hit it that day and instead hit in on Wednesday morning. Here's that chart...

Now we wait on the deeper FP from after the close on Monday to get hit, which is 441.00, and if it's hit today then I'll get long as I'd expect to see us rally hard next week and hopefully hit my FET of 5334 on the ES and 5296 on the SPX... and pierce though them by some amount. I'd love to see 30-50 point overthrow on those targets in the solar eclipse the following Monday, April the 8th as I think that will be a good short if this play out.

I might have already been long if I didn't catch the fake prints but I've been tracking them now since 2010 when I saw my first one, so I know they work. Patience is the key here to be a winner as everything tells me we will hit the lowest one before a strong multi day rally starts.

Obviously the 2 day rally up Wednesday and Thursday is still possible, but I don't see it now because of the failure to hit the downside FP and the move up late in the day yesterday was nice, but not what I would call the start of a 2 day squeeze. So that's likely off the table now, meaning that once we hit the FP we should turn back up and rally hard all of next week. It won't stop at 2 days I don't think. We've spent an entire week of "basing" in what is a bull flag. It will breakout and when it does it will rally for a week or so from this strong base.

In conclusion I still think we hit the downside FP, and probably today (possibly next Monday but I doubt it). Then a 100-150 point rally should follow in all of next week.

Happy a happy Easter. Jesus is my Savior, and yours too.

We now have closed red 3 days in a row... will today be the fourth? I doubt it as we are getting close now to the downside target of 441.00 from the fake print on the QQQ, which again is roughly around 5250 or so on the ES.

If it's hit in the morning session then I think we put in a bottom and turn back up the rest of the day. It might just go up for some wave 1 and pullback for a wave 2 (higher low) into the close, or that pullback happens on Thursday like in the chart below...

That's my thought on what could happen from looking at the technicals, but the other scenario is that we don't hit it today and close green with some small bounce. Then tomorrow we drop to the FP to close out the week negative It could hit into the close Thursday to make everything look very bearish over the 3 day weekend, which if we get oversold (and we should be), I think we'll rally hard next week with everyone short.

Of course if it's hit today then I'll still looking for a long as the FP's have proven to me over the many years of following them that they work. They can still make it very bearish into the end of the week if they do hit the FP today and bottom as we could see the wave 1 up into the close and then tomorrow gets the wave 2 down that comes really close to hitting the low again. A slightly higher low or double bottom basically. That would still get everyone bearish over the weekend I think (chart below).

Now if on the other hand the bottom comes today and we rally hard both today and tomorrow then I'd worry about next week being down... an April Fools drop on the 1st maybe? For that to happen though I'd be looking for 100-150 point rally into the close on Thursday. I think one of these 3 scenario's could happen, but I don't know which one. That rally would need to make a new all time high of course, which should hit and pierce my FET of 5334 on the ES (chart below).

That could happen, and if it does then no one will be short going into a 3 day weekend, which opens the door for a bigger pullback next week. One way or the other a big move is coming. It should up, but I don't know if it starts today after hitting the downside FP and then rallies up into the close tomorrow, or if the rally happens next week from closing down for the week to trap short before a big squeeze.

My lean is toward hitting it today and putting in 2 day squeeze to make a new all time high, which sets up next week for another pullback. But I'll play whatever I'm given and will be focusing my attention on what the technicals say after the rally gets started.

Have a blessed day.

A choppy day yesterday with a negative bias. The 443.44 FP on the QQQ was hit and pierced, so it's done now. The new upside FP almost got hit but came shy a little and the lower FP of 441.00 is still out there and will be hit at some point.  Here it is...

Looking at the technical picture we should go lower before any strong rally up, which leans toward the downside FP being hit today, maybe Wednesday, but I think it hits today. As for the upside FP... well, it might hit in the morning session first and then we drop for the lowest FP. If so, I'd say the RSI and MACD will be oversold enough on the 2hr chart to put a bottom in and allow another good move up, which again... might make another higher high, or fall short.

Once we hit that lower FP I think we'll be oversold enough to produce a strong move up, which should last into the end of the week this Thursday. Then we have a long 3 day weekend ahead, and I would not be surprise to see another pullback into the first week of April. The solar eclipse is on the 8th, and I do think that could cause some shakiness in the market until it's past by.

It would be a great time to pull the rug out on the bulls... especially if they hit my FET of 5334 and pierce it this week. Personally I'm only interesting in going long on the hit and piece of the downside FP on the QQQ at 441.00, which could be around 5250 or so on the ES. No shorts for me right now... not yet at least. Maybe if there's a new all time high to my FET by this Thursday close, as by then I'd think we'll be overbought enough to get a deeper pullback. And I'm sure all the bears will be toast if this happens.

Have a blessed day.

(Post wrote on the weekend)

Last Friday did not give us the last higher high that I was hoping for, so today is the last chance to setup a big drop. Another higher high is needed as the turn date window was from the 22nd to 25th and if it pulls back and makes a low then I'll have to say it flipped and produced a bottom instead of a top (meaning it's skipped).

Ideally we hit and pierce through the FET of 5334 on the ES and 5296 on the SPX as well, but certainly not required as it could just be a point higher.  Like I said previously the FET could fall shy or piece and we are close enough to it with the current high put in last week.

I exited my short at the close Friday at a breakeven as I just didn't like the way the market looked and felt. We pulled back small and got close to the FP on the QQQ but never hit it. I just didn't want the time decay over the weekend and decided that cash is a safe position when I don't know which direction it's going first on Monday. If we drop to the FP, (and we got another one after the close Friday that it lower), then I'll look for a long as the RSI and MACD's will likely be oversold on the 2hr chart for sure, but it could also be on the 6hr too. Here's that new FP...

So there's the 443.44 FP that failed to hit on Friday, and the new 441.00 FP after the close, which is probably around 5250-5260 on the ES I'd estimate. It's very frustrating to "not" get a setup for a nice correction, but you can't make the market do what you want it to do.

So I'm really rooting for a nice squeeze Monday to hit the FET and then reverse back down to start that correction. I would still be leary with those FP's there as typically they don't put out FP's like this if they plan on a short term correction and not just another dip to be bought. Most of the time the Fake Prints will be levels that they plan to pullback to and then turn back up, but I do find it odd that they put out a second downside FP before they even filled the first one.

As for the technicals the MACD and RSI on the 2hr chart turned down sharply from Thursday into Friday but the price didn't drop much. It looks a lot like the bull flag that was made from 2/23 to 2/29, and while it looks like it's got lower to go on this screenshot from Friday it could turn back up anytime.

I normally would think that this pattern would play out by going lower to get fully oversold first on Monday, and there's the FP's on the QQQ to support that line of thinking... but since we are still in the "turn window" I can't rule out that it turns back up from where it ended Friday and makes that last rally back up instead.

Then we rollover and drop to hit the FP's and ideally keep going to start the much needed correction that everyone is wanting. We have several things that support this, which of course the first one is the turn window. Then there's the fact that Monday is a Full Moon and we also a Lunar Eclipse is the 24th-25th. Plus we are close to a Solar Eclipse on April 8th. Lastly we have my Fibonacci Extension Target that is super close too. Many reason that we could get a nice correction, but we MUST rally to a higher high first.

My thoughts on this are that the turn window will be skipped so that the market doesn't put in a major top, as if it does then a larger drop would be needed, and it would have to bottom into another turn date.  I just don't think they will do it.  Instead I think they bypass it and put in a low Monday.

Then Tuesday or Wednesday we rally back up into the end of the week, which is Thursday because we are closed on "Good Friday" for the holiday.  Usually light trading happens during holiday weeks, which supports the bulls of course.

The FP's on the QQQ tell me that's where the bottom is likely going to be at before the turn back up.  As for which one?  Well, I have to go with the deepest one at 441.00 for the target.  I think that would put the ES in the 5250 zone most likely.  It's just a rough guess as they don't track each other as close as the SPY would to the SPX and the ES, but that's my best guess.

So, unless we start off Monday with a strong rally up odds favor this scenario.  It would suggest a small bounce early in the day that hits overhead resistance and can't get through it.  Then it rolls over to head to the FP's into the the close or Tuesday morning.  Resistance is around the 5300 zone now as you can see in the chart above.

Now the bounce back up will the the "tell-tale" sign I think as it might not clear that same resistance on the way back up?  I just don't know?  While I would love to see that last squeeze higher to hit 5334+ it might fail.

Next, let's go over the wave count.  Below is the bigger picture chart...

I've moved around some of the waves a little based on where I think we are at now and what should follow.  I don't think we have finished Medium Wave 4 down basically.  I think that's the wave we will see into April for the coming correction.

Here's the short term..

On this chart you can see I did my best to label the Small Waves, Tiny Waves and even the Extra Tiny Waves.  I think the pullback to the FP's on the QQQ will be Extra Tiny Wave 4 and then we'll get Extra Tiny Wave 5 up later this week to make another higher high.  That's where we should reach the FET of 5334 and complete T5, S5 and M3... and then we start a correction for Medium Wave 4 down.

If this all plays out like I think then we could reach the "possible" FP on the SPY sometime into mid-April to end the correction.  The Solar Eclipse is on April 8th so that could be the biggest and scariest part of the drop, (the Small Wave C?) but it might chop around the low for another week or so before putting in the final low.  Hard to know for certain, but I would look for this to unfold in an ABC pattern with the C wave subdividing into 5 smaller waves, plus the A wave as well.  The B up could be just one wave or subdivide into a 3 wave pattern.  That's all I have for now.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday before the open there was a FP on the QQQ at 443.44, which the last time it was hit the prior day and then we turned back up and rallied strongly. So that suggests we will go back up again to hit my FET of 5334 soon. Will it hit today or Monday... I don't know? I'll just say I'm very nervous here trying to short this super strong market. Here's that FP...

So everything has to line up perfectly today (or Monday) for me to risk a short. While I know it's coming I've been taking longs for a month now on pullbacks and have been doing great, so going against the trend is never easy. I really feel like just sitting in cash to see if it happens or not? Going long on a pullback (or correction) is much easier then trying to nail the top. Do I think it will pullback? Yes... but I don't know for certain how much or when. I really have to be cautious here, that's all I'm saying.

What would give me more courage?  A really strong move up to show exhaustion.  I don't think it will happen today, but it's possible I guess.  I lean toward Monday having some last rally to say 5375-5400 on the ES.  That would really fool a lot of people to see that happen on Monday I think.  I know my FET is at 5334 on the ES and 5296 on the SPX, but a pierce of them of 30+ points would be wonderful to short.

But past history doesn't show that much of a move as commonly happening.  Most of the "pierces" were 10 points, maybe 20?  However, on a percentage basis that amount of points back then, if repeated now, could be 30 or 40 points.

Lastly, I will add that I did take a short yesterday with the intention of just playing the FP on the QQQ... meaning I was just looking for a small pullback to hit that FP and then I'd look to exit and wait for that last rally up to 5334 where I'd look to re-short, if everything lines up and I have the courage.

However, Fed Chief Powell is speaking again today (oddly, as it's just after the recent FOMC), so the top could already be in?  Of all the Fibonacci Extension Targets that I researched (back to 2020) about half of the FET's pierced through and the other half fell shy.  We got within 20 points or so yesterday, so maybe it's already topped?

It's just not easy to know at this point because it's so close to the target that it might be done.  I'll just have to watch the RSI on the 2hr and 6hr chart to see when it gets oversold, and the FP on the QQQ too.  Currently the 2hr RSI could be oversold at some point today if we pullback just a small amount.

Now the 6hr RSI, and of course the daily, could take a long time to get oversold... especially the daily.  Really a tough call here.  Again, I took a short but I don't know if it's just going to reach and pierce the FP on the QQQ, or if the top is in and we are starting the correction now.  We'll see.

Have a blessed day.

We got the rally yesterday that I was expecting. We are close to my FET of 5334 on the ES, which ideally hits tomorrow, or Monday. It's a window of time for the turn date, so it could be tomorrow or Monday. For today I'd like to see some sideways chop to make a bull flag that leaves Friday for the move up to my target, and likely above it some. But if it hits today then I'll likely take my short and just hold through Friday and Monday where it "could" go a little higher. It's not a perfect system so there's always a little wiggle room as trying to nail the exact date for any top or bottom is always a best guess.

Last month I got this email about the The 1001 Nights of Ali Baba's Investments, which I thought was very interesting. Here's that post...

Introduction

Once upon a time, in a faraway land, there lived a poor woodcutter named Ali Baba. Despite his financial struggles, he always remained optimistic and hardworking, hoping for a better future.

One day, while working in the forest, Ali Baba stumbled upon a hidden treasure in a secret cave. The treasure belonged to a group of forty thieves, and Ali Baba decided to take some of the treasure for himself. However, when the thieves discovered that someone had taken their treasure, they began to search for the culprit.

Ali Baba managed to escape the wrath of the thieves, but he knew he had to be careful. He decided to use his newfound wealth to invest in the stock market, hoping to grow his fortune and secure his future.

For the next 1000 trading days or nights, Ali Baba watched his investments grow steadily. However, as the 1001st day approached, he began to feel uneasy. He had heard from a wise old sage that after 1000 trading days or nights, there was a possible downturn in the stock market.

Ali Baba didn't know what to do. He didn't want to lose all his hard-earned money, but he didn't want to miss out on any potential gains either. Finally, he decided to take a measured approach and sell some of his stocks to lock in his profits while keeping the rest invested for the long term.

As it turned out, the sage's prediction was true, and the stock market did experience a downturn. However, Ali Baba's careful planning and foresight paid off, and he was able to weather the storm without suffering any major losses.

From that day forward, Ali Baba continued to invest wisely and grow his wealth, all while keeping an eye out for any potential risks or challenges that might come his way.

(Original post here: The 1001 Nights of Ali Baba's Investments)

So I decided to do a little research on this.  What I found interesting is a 1000 days might have some value.  I went back to the 2020 crash, which was March 23rd in 2020, and then decided to add 1000 trading days.

Guess what that points to?  You guess it... March 22nd, 2024.  How funny is that?  Check it out yourself at the link below.

https://www.timeanddate.com/date/weekdayadd.html?d1=23&m1=03&y1=2020&

Lastly, the SPX cash has an FET of 5296.44, which is about 5350-5360 on the ES futures.  We could fall shy on the cash but if we base (or grind higher) today we could reach that level by tomorrow, or Sunday/Monday.

Have a blessed day.

Today is the big day. The FOMC meeting at 2pm EST will decide the next big 100+ point move, which I think will be up. Sure there could be some wild swings up and down but by the close I expect the market to close up nicely. This is all setting up for a super nice short of 5-10% if we hit my FET (Fibonacci Extension Target) of 5334 on the ES, which it will likely piece it of course.

My FET of 5334 is based on the low from October of 2022 up to the high in July of 2023, which is a super important one because it's the largest one over the past 2 years. This means it should produce a pullback like the one that came after the July 2023 high, which was 11% and took 90 days to complete. Does that mean this coming drop will be last the same about of time? I don't know but the common theme is to flip between patterns, which I'd call that that one a slow choppy decline, meaning this one should do the opposite and be a fast drop with very few big bounces.

This is where it could drop to after we top...

Now I don't know if that will be accurate or not, as I've said previously about Yahoo FP's not be reliable because they show dozens of them and you don't know what is real and what is not. But this one is odd, and it only lasted about 2 or 3 days before it was removed, so it's possibly a real one? As you can see on the chart it's around the low of February the 1st, which on the ES is 4872, and on the SPX that would be 50-60 points lower.

Now if we top at my FET of 5334, then a drop to that FP would be just under 9%, and that's right in line with the 11% back in 2023. They won't ever match exactly but something nice and close would be perfect in my opinion. That's the bigger picture. Let's see if we rally to my upside target this Friday (possibly Monday). If so, I'll be shorting it.

P.S. I posted this yesterday...

Have a blessed day.

The market had a nice move up yesterday from the low on Friday to make what was most likely a Tiny Wave 1 inside Small Wave 5 up. Then there was a pullback in the second half of the day, which was probably a Tiny Wave 2 down. Today will be hard to figure as the market is waiting on the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

I see two possible paths, which are that this Tiny Wave 2 subdivides into an ABC whereas the A leg was the first pullback from the 5240 high on the ES yesterday. From that low we could rally up for a B wave today (early?) and pullback for the C wave into the close. That leaves Tiny Wave 3 up to start tomorrow, which we should subdivide into 5 smaller waves too. I'd guess that the wave 1 up (Extra Tiny Wave) would happen early in the day Wednesday and then the wave 2 would be a small pullback into the meeting.

Then a strong wave 3 up (Extra Tiny Wave) follows, which is inside Tiny Wave 3, inside Small Wave 5. That should be the most powerful wave of course, and it should be from something said by the Fed that the market takes a positive.  Basically a lot of chop until after the FOMC where the big squeeze should happen and top into this Friday, which ideally would be at the FET of 5334... but again, if it's close and it happens on Friday, I'll be looking for a short.

The other thing that could happen is that we just do a one wave move down for Tiny Wave 2, which will still setup Wednesday to start Tiny Wave 3 up, and the first subwave (of 5) should happen in the morning on Wednesday and then the subwave 2 in front of the meeting.

Doesn't matter which way it plays out as the end result should be a strong rally up after the meeting tomorrow. I lean toward just one wave down for Tiny Wave 2, meaning it doesn't subdivide into an ABC, but I really am not concerned about which way it unfolds as everything tells me we are close to a strong breakout rally into this Friday (possibly Monday) to hit the upside target and setup the market for a nice, much needed correction of 5-10%.

Have a blessed day.

The market finished an ABC down last week for a Small Wave 4 last week most likely and we should be in Small Wave 5 up this week. It will likely unfold in 5 sub-waves with the 1 up happening today, and likely the 2 down tomorrow... which could be very small. Then the 3 up is likely to happen after the FOMC on Wednesday, and again the 4 should be small.

Then lastly the 5 up should complete Small Wave 5 up by this Friday, or possibly next Monday. My FET (Fibonacci Extension Target) is 5334 on the ES, which ideally gets hit... but "time" and "pattern" is super important too. Meaning that if we get close to that zone this Friday I'll be looking for a short.

I've taken 5 longs over the past month and no shorts, but if this plays out I will be taking my first short in a long time. I'm not going into too much more as I'm still working on the bugs of the site. It's completely a 100% clean now of all malware. I started off in a new server with nothing on it, and I'm using a new wordpress theme.

I cleaned up all the old links too, but I'm still waiting on my hosting company to update the SSL certificate, so currently the HTTPS is not working. Only the HTTP showing the website. So a browser that allows that must be used to see the site. I tried it on google chrome but it won't allow it. But Firefox allows it, and so does the Yandex browser. I've not tries others, but hopefully this is all fixed by my hosting company in the next few days.

Have a blessed day.