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How Uber plans to get you there and feed you

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NEW YORK — Next time you get into an Uber, the car's last passenger may have been a carton of Thai curry.

As UberEats launches as a standalone app this month in 10 U.S. cities — including in New York and Washington D.C., on Tuesday — it's expanding its fleet of drivers, adding bike couriers and partnering with hundreds of restaurants to dig deeper into the competitive business of food delivery.

Uber is going up against established delivery companies like Seamless, Grubhub and Yelp's Eat24, plus smaller local companies like New York City's Maple in the fight for customers who are shunning their kitchens in favor of prepared meals delivered to their door. It's a $15.3 billion market, and one that's only getting bigger. Delivery represents 3% of 61 billion restaurant visits per year, according to NPD Group figures.

The expanded UberEats has Uber partnering with more than 100 restaurants in each city — which by the end of the month will include New York, Washington D.C., Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Austin, Seattle, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Traditional Uber features are still baked in: you can track your driver — or biker — as your meal makes its way to you on a live map and existing customers will find their payment information automatically transferred over from the Uber app.

The new app, which Uber began testing in Toronto in December, allows customers, for the most part, to order from the restaurants' full menus. It's an expansion of the more limited UberEats service, which has been around since 2014 within the original Uber app and offers two to five meals that restaurants prepare early in the day so they're available for delivery immediately. That's still an option in the app under "instant delivery."

Drivers will have to log into UberEats separately to pick up and deliver food orders, and log off and back in to the regular Uber app to start giving rides again, says spokeswoman Sarah Maxwell. And in some cities, like New York, your lunch will come courtesy of a bike messenger instead of a sleek black car.

Uber built a web-based dashboard for restaurants to track incoming orders and to dispatch couriers based on how long the restaurant says it will take to prepare a certain meal, which can be updated in real time.

Uber promises to have you fed in under an hour — delivery times around lunch time in New York on Tuesday ranged from 10 minutes to 51 minutes. Although it appears the company is still working out how to accurately determine wait times when demand spikes. Before I ordered lunch Tuesday around 12:30, I was told to expect a 15-26 minute delivery window. After I placed my order, the estimated delivery time was for 50 minutes later.

It's a glitch Uber will need to act quickly to address, because speed is ultimately the key to winning over customers in the increasingly crowded delivery market, says Kevin Kopelman, senior analyst with research firm Cowen and Co.

"It’s all about speed, quality and price," he says. "The faster you can get the deliveries done, the cheaper you can make it for customers because it means you can more effectively use delivery peoples’ time and they can do more delivery drops per hour." And it will help avoid the anger of hungry customers.

Uber is waiving the delivery fee in new markets for now but eventually will charge, though it hasn't announced how much. Toronto and Los Angeles, the first two markets to get the app, charge a $5 delivery fee.

Some of Uber's competitors have been chewed up and spit out, unable to keep up with the cost of doing business. Bay Area delivery app, SpoonRocket, shut down last week, citing "intense competition" and "an ever tightening funding environment."

Another San Francisco company, Sidecar, folded at the end of 2015 when it sold its assets to General Motors. The ride-sharing and delivery service had partnered with Eat24, a delivery service owned by Yelp, to double up on food deliveries and rides at the same time. That meant food orders could be riding along in the trunk during someone's drive, a model Sidecar had said was more efficient and affordable. But ultimately, it didn't work out.

"It’s harder for a smaller company to get the new customer, to get the restaurant partner on board or to get the scale necessary to make this work," Kopelman says.

But Uber enters the game with some sizable assets: More than 19 million customers and 400,000 active drivers to target for food orders.

"They have a history of very strong, smart, aggressive competition," Kopelman says, "so you have to take them seriously."

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Armani Pledges To Go Fur-Free From Here On Out

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Armani Pledges To Go Fur-Free From Here On Out

Fur will no longer be featured in iconic fashion designer Giorgio Armani's collections.

Armani Autumn/Winter 2014 Runway

Fur will no longer be featured in iconic fashion designer Giorgio Armani's collections.

Armani is one of the biggest names in fashion, and the iconic designer has now decided to go completely fur-free.

Giorgio Armani announced today that starting with the fall 2016 collection, he will no longer use fur in any of the future Armani collections or throughout any of the other Armani Group labels.

"I am pleased to announce that the Armani Group has made a firm commitment to abolish the use of animal fur in its collections," Armani said. "Technological progress made over the years allows us to have valid alternatives at our disposal that render the use of cruel practices unnecessary as regards animals.... Pursuing the positive process undertaken long ago, my company is now taking a major step ahead, reflecting our attention to the critical issues of protecting and caring for the environment and animals."

The brand has been criticized for using fur for years, especially after PETA called out the designer in 2008 for creating children's coats with rabbit fur. PETA even went as far as setting up coffins outside the Giorgio Armani store in Taipei that read "Armani: Fur Is Dead." The brand is now being praised by animal rights organizations for finally making this decision.

"This critical decision to stop using fur, declared by one of the world's most iconic and talented designers, is an important victory for animals and fashion," said Adam M. Roberts, CEO of Born Free USA and the Born Free Foundation. "We could not be more grateful to the leadership the Armani brand has shown, and we hope this action will strongly influence the rest of the high-end fashion industry."

The designer worked closely with the Humane Society of the United States (HSUS) and the Fur Free Alliance, which is a coalition of 40 animal protection organizations in 28 countries working hard to end fur trade.

"Armani provides leadership in an industry that has fallen behind others when it comes to animal welfare," said P.J. Smith, corporate engagement manager of the Humane Society of the United States. "The HSUS calls on all designers who close their eyes to the cruelty behind fur in the name of creative freedom and luxury to follow Armani and embrace innovative alternatives."

"Armani's fur-free announcement makes it clear that designers and consumers can have creative freedom and luxury all without supporting animal cruelty," said John Vinding, chairman of Fur Free Alliance. "Mr. Armani has been a trendsetter in the fashion world for decades and this latest announcement is proof that compassion and innovation are the future of fashion."
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I Have Glimpsed a Future Without Those Pesky Cable TV Boxes, and It Is Good

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Cable TV Set-Top BoxMore speed, more devices, and more choices—that’s a huge win.

If you subscribe to pay TV, the odds are 99–1 you have what the TV industry calls a “set-top box.” Even greater are the odds that, if you have one, you despise the thing. Each month, you “rent” a device that pipes cable TV to your television—but if you rely on other media sources like a Blu-ray player or a Chromecast, you may find yourself using multiple remote controls to switch between the devices hooked into your TV. Cable and satellite companies rake in about $20 billion per year in set-top box rentals, on top of the subscription fees users pay for their services. And for the most part, subscribers, who pay $232 per year on average for the rentals, don’t get new equipment, or new software, or new features for that $20 billion.

Earlier this year, the Federal Communications Commission decided to craft new regulations for the set-top box marketplace. I’m as skeptical of new FCC regulations as anyone—more than a decade I ago, I challenged an FCC proposal that would have limited consumers’ ability to connect their computers and other digital devices to their TVs. But the FCC has a 20-year-old mandate from Congress to create competition among the platforms and devices we use to access pay TV, so if consumers aren’t pleased, the commission is right to revisit how the set-top market works—and how the larger market for pay TV works, too. That it’s doing so is reason for everyone who’s ever cursed at their cable setup to cheer, a conclusion I came to recently when I ran into stumbling blocks in my own efforts to upgrade my cable. What I realized is that the FCC isn’t just trying to make it easier for more companies to sell you a broader variety of hardware to place atop your TV. It’s aiming for something that will transform home entertainment systems far more profoundly.

First, a confession: Although I am a happy Comcast subscriber, I gave up my own Comcast set-top box years ago. (After too many cross-country moves, I gave up my high-definition TV set, too.) Still, like most other cord-cutting Americans, I have a home network. It’s mostly wireless and it’s connected to the Internet through Comcast—and I also still watch a lot of TV and video through the Internet. I have two smartphones, two tablets, and three laptops, and until recently I would frequently see slowdowns in my cable Internet service. It was worst when I watched “over-the-top” programming from services like Amazon Prime or Netflix on my digital devices, often while doing work at home, answering email, or browsing the Web.

Part of the problem, I guessed, was that I was using the same clunky old cable modem that I leased from Comcast. So I started shopping on the Web. Was there a bundle from Comcast, my provider, that would give me greater Internet speed and TV choices at a reasonable price? Or did I want to switch to a competitor like Verizon Fios or DirecTV? Each multichannel video programming distributor—or MVPD—had something special to offer on the pay-TV side, plus the bundling of telephone and high-speed Internet service.

I first tried to see if I could improve my existing service. Back in my set-top-box days, I used to like Comcast’s TV packages, mostly for HBO and Showtime, but they always included lots of TV options I never watched. These days, I mostly binge-watch over-the-top shows like Amazon Prime’s Mozart in the Jungle and Netflix’s Jessica Jones. And I can even get some series à la carte online.

I quickly learned I could just upgrade my Comcast Xfinity package over the Web, multiplying my download capacity by a factor of five or six to a whopping 150 megabits per second. But Comcast didn’t make it easy to downgrade or dispense with other services, or to buy a cable modem rather than rent one, or to get HBO without a set-top box.

Looking specifically for Internet-only offerings from Xfinity, I had to bail on Comcast’s website, which didn’t make it easy to specify unbundled Internet-only service. (I looked at websites for AT&T and Direct TV, as well—similar difficulties there.) And it was super difficult to suss out what kind of cable hardware I might want to buy that would free me from monthly rental fees for my cable box or any set-top box, be compatible with cable’s content offerings and Internet services, and feel like a flexible, functional device that’s worth owning in itself for the user experience it provides or enables. I ended up deciding to call Comcast directly, which turned out to be the only way a subscriber can easily find the kind of options I wanted for simultaneously upgrading some aspects of my service while eliminating others.

The Comcast rep was entirely pleasant and helpful. He tried to offer me attractive bundles that included one of Xfinity cable packages. But almost every one of those offerings would have required me to get a set-top box. The Comcast rep quickly priced out my requests. It turned out that I could get that super-capacious, high-speed Internet from Xfinity, cut off the unused landline, continue to forgo any cable content offering, and actually save about $20 a month on my bill.

But get this: I didn’t even need to upgrade my cable modem, which, it turns out, wasn’t as clunky and outdated as I had assumed (and as Comcast’s website had hinted). The cable modem, which is the only Comcast hardware in my apartment, had the ability to give me upgraded services through software, directed by Comcast’s network. My service was upgraded while I was still on the phone to Comcast’s sales department from my office, and the first thing I checked when I got home was whether I really got 150 megabits per second. As it happens, I got 175 on the first try.

That’s when it hit me: Upgrading and changing Internet and TV services through software, instead of relying on hardware upgrades, is exactly what the FCC is up to in this latest rulemaking, enabling you to hang your own devices, not something you rent, off your TV service.

More speed, more devices, and more choices—that’s a huge win. In effect, the commission’s proposed rulemaking would allow software-based alternatives, working through our Internet/pay-TV connections, to replace our set-top boxes. Under the FCC rule, I may soon be able to get all my premium pay-TV choices, including the ones that used to require set-top boxes, directly accessible on my computer, tablet, phone, or TV in my home network, much as I can now with Amazon Prime or Netflix. And I’d be liberated from needing a set-top box connected to any of these devices.

Even the commissioners who dissented from this new rulemaking yearn to be liberated in this way. Commissioner Ajit Pai was frank about this in his dissent. “As someone with three set-top boxes in my home, I share the frustrations felt by millions of Americans across this country. These boxes are clunky and expensive, and I feel the pain each and every month when I pay my video bill,” he said. “And as an FCC Commissioner, I know that the current set-top box marketplace is the product of an intrusive regulatory regime.”

I second that emotion. Just as I felt liberated decades ago when I no longer had to rent telephones and learned I could use my phone service to connect in all sorts of ways to the larger world, I know I’ll be liberated again when I’m able to get all my pay TV on any device in my home just by being a subscriber. I expect the FCC’s proposed regulations, which could push set-top box content controls out of set-top-box hardware and into the cloud, will help more consumers make similarly liberating decisions.

The FCC’s proposed rulemaking, if implemented correctly, actually could finally open that that market. I’m as skeptical of new regulatory schemes as I ever was, but the FCC’s latest initiative speaks directly to my TV-and-Internet-consuming self. FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler has named this initiative “Unlock the Box,” and Commissioner Pai has argued that the commission’s goal “should be to eliminate the box.” I’m ready to buy either T-shirt.
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Amazon and Comcast are teaming up, and it means good news for TV watchers

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Cable Subscribers ChartBI Intelligence

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Amazon and Comcast are joining forces in what should be a mutually beneficial partnership.

Amazon Cable Store, a new section of Amazon.com that has just debuted, is reselling Comcast's television and Internet services, according to TechCrunch. Users can sort different packages that include Internet-only deals and hybrid Internet and TV bundles, and then schedule an installation at the same rate Comcast currently charges.

The e-commerce giant could use this partnership to market itself as the go-to location for cable subscriptions, particularly skinny bundles. The Comcast deal also lays the groundwork for Amazon to partner with other cable companies, which would open up a new revenue stream for Amazon.

Furthermore, the Amazon-Comcast partnership offers a chance for a content-licensing agreement in which Comcast's content appears on Amazon Prime, though this is strictly speculation at this point because details on the partnership are scarce.

The deal could also help Comcast because it increases the company's exposure to a digital audience as cable subscriptions continue to decline. Amazon.com logs about two billion visits each month, according to SimilarWeb.

Comcast also has been criticized for its customer service, but those who sign up through Amazon will have access to the e-commerce company's customer service through phone, email, chat, and social media channels.

The partnership between Amazon and Comcast is another way that cable companies are adjusting their strategies as cable subscriptions continue to decline. The rise of skinny bundles and subscription services such as Netflix and Hulu have led some to question if traditional pay-TV even has a place anymore.

Margaret Boland, research analyst for BI Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service, has compiled a detailed report on subscription video on-demand services that examines how the growth of SVOD is coming at the expense of the pay-TV industry. The report analyzes the state of the pay-TV industry and maps out which demographics are more likely to stop buying traditional TV packages.

The report also discuss the user base, original content offerings, and subscription models of the major subscription streaming services available today, including Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Video. Finally, it looks at how traditional pay-TV companies and premium channels like HBO and Showtime are addressing the shift to digital viewing, as well as the implications of their response for advertisers.

Subscription Video on Demand Report COverBI Intelligence

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

  • Those abandoning pay-TV packages fall into three main groups: cord-nevers, cord-cutters, and cord-shavers. Whereas video streaming services have found favor with younger viewers in particular, an increasing portion of older subscribers also are leaving behind their pay-TV packages. Still, younger viewers watch four times as much video content online than older viewers.
  • Netflix is the largest SVOD service and will continue to dominate the industry with an impressive original content lineup and aggressive expansion plans.
  • Amazon is trying to compete with Netflix by investing significant resources in original content.
  • Hulu is the third-largest SVOD service, but the only one to offer ad-supported membership tiers. Hulu has been the slowest to roll out original and exclusive content, but it has inked numerous deals in the past year to boost its content library.
  • Pay-TV companies are responding to the rise of SVOD services by offering subscribers "skinny bundles" and their own streaming services.

In full, the report:

  • Illustrates the fall of the traditional TV package and the rise of broadband only cable subscriptions.
  • Lays out the different types of viewers that are leaving behind pay-TV: cord-cutters, cord-shavers, and cord-nevers.
  • Examines the leading SVOD services including Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, and premium channel offerings from HBO and Showtime.
  • Explains the various ways that pay-TV companies are responding to the rise of SVOD services, notably skinny bundles and standalone streaming services.
  • Considers what the migration to SVOD services means to marketers.

To get your copy of this invaluable guide, choose one of these options:

  1. Subscribe to an ALL-ACCESS Membership with BI Intelligence and gain immediate access to this report AND over 100 other expertly researched deep-dive reports, subscriptions to all of our daily newsletters, and much more. >> START A MEMBERSHIP
  2. Purchase the report and download it immediately from our research store. >> BUY THE REPORT

The choice is yours. But however you decide to acquire this report, you’ve given yourself a powerful advantage in your understanding of subscription video on-demand services.

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Markit (MRKT) Stock Edges Up on IHS Merger

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Markit (MRKT - Get Report) stock is up by 0.90% to $33.81 in mid-morning trading on Tuesday, after the company announced it will merge with IHS (IHS).

Shares of the British financial information services company soared on Monday after the company announced that it will merge with IHS, which is an analytics company based in Englewood, CO.

The deal is expected to close during the second half of 2016.

Barclays raised its price target on Markit stock to $35 from $30 on Tuesday. The deal makes sense financially but was a "total surprise" strategically, Barclays said.

"Scale has always been a long-term feature of the Markit story, and while IHS does add scale, it is not in the areas we were expecting," the firm added. "Maybe it's a vision that will take time for us to see."

IHS stock is up by 0.72% to $123.02 in mid-morning trading on Tuesday.

Separately, recently, TheStreet Ratings objectively rated this stock according to its "risk-adjusted" total return prospect over a 12-month investment horizon. Not based on the news in any given day, the rating may differ from Jim Cramer's view or that of this articles's author.

TheStreet Ratings rates this stock as a "hold" with a ratings score of C. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, solid stock price performance and impressive record of earnings per share growth. However, as a counter to these strengths, we find that we feel that the company's cash flow from its operations has been weak overall.

You can view the full analysis from the report here: MRKT

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Apple gets short-term win, but new mysterious FBI unlocking method looms

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Apple's encryption battle

RIVERSIDE, Calif.—Less than 24 hours before a highly anticipated Tuesday court session where prosecutors and Apple lawyers would have squared off here in federal court, government attorneys suddenly got a judge to vacate that hearing and stay an unprecedented court order that would have forced Apple to aid investigators' efforts to unlock and decrypt an iPhone linked to a 2015 terrorist attack. In a court filing Monday, federal authorities cited a newly discovered "unlocking method" that it hopes won't require Apple's help.

The sudden and unexpected postponement essentially means an immediate victory for Apple—the company doesn’t have to comply with the government’s demands to create a customized version of iOS. But the new government filing also raises more questions than it answers, such as the reach of the government's decryption capabilities.

Melanie Newman, a spokeswoman for the Department of Justice, said in a statement sent to Ars that the government only learned of this new unlock technique this weekend.

"We must first test this method to ensure that it doesn’t destroy the data on the phone, but we remain cautiously optimistic," she wrote. "That is why we asked the court to give us some time to explore this option."

In a Monday evening call with reporters, Apple lawyers told Ars that they had absolutely no information on the government's claims.

Apple attorneys also said on the call that the company was engaged in a "constant battle" with those that would attempt to circumvent the company's security flaws. They added that the company hopes to better understand what the supposed vulnerability is, and if the case continues, the firm will insist in court on knowing everything possible about it.

Tuesday's hearing would have been filled with top-notch lawyers, not to mention attorneys representing friends of the court (amicus curae), including terrorism victims, cryptographers, and many others. Apple was set to enter the Riverside courtroom with a legal team lead by a former solicitor general of the United States, who represented plaintiffs in a landmark Supreme Court case that legalized gay marriage in March 2013. The government would have countered with a number of top prosecutors, including one who previously was involved in a sextortion case a few years ago.

An arms race continues

Andrew Crocker, an attorney at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, pointed out that while the public still doesn’t know what decryption capabilities the FBI and other federal agencies have, it is known that the government retains zero-days for their own purposes.

He said he think's "it’s possible" that the DOJ would try to bring a similar case again. "But part of the reason they didn’t want to have this reason was that they couldn’t say in good faith that they had tried all the other alternatives," he told Ars.

Jennifer Granick, the director of civil liberties at the Stanford Center for Internet and Society, said that these new government decryption capabilities are not good for privacy and ever-expanding government surveillance.

"The DOJ doesn't want bad precedent, and I think Apple had the better side in this argument," she told Ars. "Being able to hack helps DOJ for a while. Apple could upgrade beyond the capability. It might also be expensive, meaning harder to do than making Apple do it."

Meanwhile, Fred Cate, a law professor at Indiana University, told Ars that while the decision to vacate is "good news," it represents a clear escalation in the security struggle.

"As a practical matter, if the FBI’s new technique works, it likely means that Apple will add more protection to its devices, which is a good thing for consumers, and the FBI will be back in court in the future asking a judge to compel Apple to help the government defeat Apple’s improved security," he told Ars. "So the issue probably has been deferred, not resolved."

The legal fracas began last month when the government obtained an unprecedented court order, citing an obscure 18th-century statute known as the All Writs Act. The case, popularly known as “FBI v. Apple,” asked the judge to decide if the government could force Apple to create a new customized version of iOS.

Prosecutors told the judge they needed this new version of iOS as a way to get into the seized iPhone 5C, which was used by Syed Rizwan Farook, one of the terrorists involved in the December 2015 attack in San Bernardino. The iOS 9 phone is encrypted with a four-digit passcode, and investigators are afraid that if they enter the wrong passcode 10 times, it will auto-delete all the data on the phone. The new customized iOS demanded from Apple would remove that lockout feature, and it would enable the government to brute force passcodes until it could get in.

The government is now required to provide a status report to the federal magistrate judge by April 5.

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Japan sees flight delays due to airline system problems

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Japan sees flight delays due to airline system problems

TOKYO (AP) — Major Japanese airports were crammed with thousands of passengers unable to take domestic flights Tuesday due to problems with airline computer systems.

The delays began in the morning, with major Japanese carrier All Nippon Airways posting a notice on its website apologizing for delays and cancellations due to a "system malfunction."

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Do you trust central banks? If so, which one?

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Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Central banks have come under fire in recent months over their divergent monetary policies that have left financial markets confused and market watchers skeptical.

The U.S. Federal Reserve last week dialed back on the number of rate hikes it would perform this year. But market watchers were not convinced, with some suggesting the number of hikes could be even lower.

Earlier this month, when the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate and deposit rate further, European equities initially cheered the move. But President Mario Draghi's subsequent suggestion that this might be the last time the central bank cut rates deeper into negative territory pushed stocks lower.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan's surprising decision to cut interest rates into negative territory in late January pushed the Japanese yen higher and stocks lower. While governor Haruhiko Kuroda defended the decision amid criticism, experts do not think negative rates are sustainable in the long term.

For this week's Trader Poll, tell us which of these central banks would you turn to for advice:
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ES Morning Update March 22nd 2016

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e41f911c-34b4-4884-8612-3468248693e2Yesterday I talked about a raising trendline from th 1800 are low as support and a possible target on any pullback.  Today we are seeing that pullback to that trendline.

MACD's are finally rolling over but do note that they tend to turn back up around the zero line.  If they go below that line today then we will be seeing our first signs of a potential top to this rally.

It's still hard to be bearish with light volume in the market every day now.  We need some kind of news to wake up the bears.  Certainly we are very overbought but with the SPY upside FP, IWM upside FP from 2 weeks ago and the Apple upside FP from yesterday it's a pretty clear sign that they want the market higher.  Of course that doesn't rule out a pullback today so if they break the rising trendline from 1800 area low I'd again look for support in that 2015-2023 prior resistance (now support) zone.

So, I can only say that until the market first breaks down out of that rising channel/wedge and then goes back up for a lower high (and/or backtest) it's back to the old "buy the dip" crap from the last 7 years. However, I'll pass on that and just wait for the top to appear as I hate chasing the last 5-10% move of any uptrend.  You never know when the music stops and you're left standing without a chair to sit in... LOL

ES Morning Update March 21st 2016

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Early morning look at the futures here shows them holding over the shorter rising trendline, which is now support.

MACD's still have lots of negative divergence "lower high" peaks but until support is broken it really doesn't seem to matter.

The futures are in a nice rising wedge/channel from the 1800 area low back on February 11th with the lower trendline showing support in the mid to high 2020's this morning.  A break of that should lead to a drop to the 2010 area where horizontal support is, and the whole zone covers about 2000 to 2010.

Considering the light volume last week and this being a Monday where traders roll into to work slowly I'm expecting another day of the same light volume.  It's hard to be a buyer of this market up this high but you really can't short it yet as there's just not enough sellers to push it down hard and fast.

I would lean more toward just day trade scalps today with that lower rising trendline being the downside target to go long at (around 2021 at the open but rising to 2027 by the close).  On the short side the 2034 area is currently holding as support from that shorter rising trendline with horizontal support around 2032, so that would need to break for a fall to the 2021-2027 area to happen.  It's just that's such a small move down it's not really worth the risk/reward to short it.

Sadly, this looks like that crappy period in October, 2015 where the market just went up non-stop with very few pullbacks.  In fact, that rally lasted 35 calendar days (CD) which was 26 trading days (TD).  Right now we are at 39 CD's and 27 TD's, so we should be close to an end.  I still have the FP on the SPY showing higher prices, so I won't be shorting until then.  Plus I want to see the media become bullish calling for new highs and the bears throw in the towel and become bulls.

ES Morning Update March 18th 2016

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423b9416-c6da-490e-9891-09f57eb4bf9e copyA breakout over the shorter rising trendline happened and then sideways consolation over it happened.

MACD's still have many negative divergences suggests a top is near.

For the past couple of weeks I have thought that we'd fill the gap from the January 2nd open this year and we did that yesterday on the SPX and the ES Futures.  At that point I was thinking it should top out a few points over that area, but yesterday I was re-shown a FP with what I now think will be the top, so I'm now thinking it will be early next week before this rally ends.

Today is Quad Witching Expiration so there could be some strange moves to pin the various instruments where "they" make the most money and "we the sheep" lose the most.  As far as the ES Futures, SPX Cash, SPY, etc... I don't see too much wild action.  I think it will be a boring day with little movement down or up as the futures certainly don't want lose the shorter rising trendline or the longer rising trendline.

So, I'll probably do a whole lot of nothing today and wait for that top next week.  On the downside for support the shorter rising trendline is around 2032 here before the open and the longer rising trendline from the 1800 area low is around 2023 or so.  Break that and I'll change my tune... otherwise I'm a patient bear.

Here Are Nike’s First Power Lacing Shoes

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Here Are Nike's First Power Lacing Shoes

Ever since Back to the Future II, people have wanted shoes with power laces. Well, it’s happened. Nike has finally put power lacing in real shoes. In real life. As in, you’ll actually be able to buy them. And you’ll never have to tie a shoelace again. The Nike HyperAdapt 1.0 will be the first real Nike shoe to implement the adaptive lacing tech and it’s supposed to work just like it did for Marty McFly. Put them on and it magically tightens up around your feet.

Tiffany Beers of Nike explains how the system works: “When you step in, your heel will hit a sensor and the system will automatically tighten.”

That sounds about right! The adaptive lacing technology isn’t fully automatic though. As in, it won’t just tighten and loosen on the fly. Along with the heel sensor, you can adjust the power laces through a button on the side of the shoe. This isn’t purely just a gimmick (it’s a lot of gimmick though) because the idea is that the added benefit of these power laces is that the shoe’s laces will give the same sort of consistent scrunching and tightening each time. Bunny ears be gone (though who knows how the power lacing gets charged up).

The Nike HyperAdapt 1.0 is supposed to come out during the holiday season of 2016 in three different colors. No word on price yet but it’s probably safe to assume that you’ll need to start shining up them pennies.

Here’s an on foot test of the shoe’s power lacing system:

And a promo video that sort of teases it:

Here Are Nike's First Power Lacing Shoes
Here Are Nike's First Power Lacing Shoes
Here Are Nike's First Power Lacing Shoes

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Oil closes above $40 for first time since Dec.

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AP SLIPPING OIL RIGS A XGR FILE USA ND

U.S. oil prices closed above $40 for the first time in three months Thursday after a market- friendly Federal Reserve stoked a five-week-old rally that has seen crude rise sharply from its February lows.

But while oil is almost certainly headed higher by the second half of the year, at least one analyst believes the recent run-up is likely overdone in light of an ongoing glut of about 1.5 million barrels a day.

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, closed up $1.74, or 4.5%, at $40.20 a barrel. It’s up more than 50% since plunging to a 13-year low of $26.21 in early February.

The latest catalyst was the Fed’s decision Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged and unexpectedly signal that it will lift rates more gradually than expected amid a weak global economy and market volatility, says Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst with the Price Futures Group. Lower rates typically weaken the dollar, and since oil is traded globally in greenbacks, that coaxes producers like Saudi Arabia to raise prices to maintain revenue.

The Fed’s pro-growth posture “was the icing on the cake,” Flynn says.

More broadly, other forces have combined to drive up oil prices in recent weeks. U.S. shale producers have aggressively cut output and laid off workers amid the tumbling prices. There were just 480 drilling rigs in the US last week, down from 1,125 a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. Flynn says small producers that have laid off workers and are on the verge of bankruptcy likely lack the resources to restart rigs, even if prices rebound further. And major companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron have slashed capital spending,  heralding future reductions in production.

While bloated U.S. oil inventories continue to rise, they’ve climbed more slowly in recent weeks. That's particularly encouraging because the current refinery maintenance season typically swells the supply of crude that has fewer outlets.

Meanwhile, a tentative agreement to freeze production by Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC and non-OPEC countries has raised hopes that it will eventually lead to a deal to cut output, Flynn says.

“It’s showing the markets that there’s going to be some type of restraint,” he says.

On the demand side, China’s economy is slowing, but the country’s thirst for oil has slackened only modestly, Flynn says. And an aggressive stimulus package announced by the European Central Bank last week has analysts predicting it could spur the euro zone’s sluggish economy and ignite more energy demand.

“You’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,” Flynn says of the recent rally.

Yet Tom Kloza, chief global analyst with the Oil Price Information Service, says the upswing “is quite premature.” The drop in shale production is being offset by higher U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico and producers’ increased efficiency, he says.

And he doesn’t believe the global production freeze will lead to a more meaningful cut. Top producer Saudi Arabia is still jaded by previous OPEC deals to slash output that were breached by other member countries. Many analysts believe Saudi Arabia is still intent on using low prices to drive high-cost producers out of business and widen market share.

Kloza is also skeptical of recent Energy Department figures that show U.S. gasoline demand up 6.6% the past six weeks compared to the year- ago period.

He believes oil is headed back above $50 a barrel by the second half of the year as the U.S. shale cutbacks finally begin to have a bigger impact and the summer driving season swings into high gear. But in the short term, he expects crude to drift back into the low $30's even as gas prices inch up to $2.25 to $2.50 a gallon from the current $1.96 average as the driving season draws closer.

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Tribune Publishing to buy Freedom’s assets, Orange County Register for $56M

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Tribune Publishing, which owns The Los Angeles Times and the Chicago Tribune, said Thursday it has prevailed at a bankruptcy auction to acquire “substantially all of the assets of Freedom Communications,” including the Orange County Register/ for $56 million, moving to control the second largest daily newspaper in the Los Angeles region while facing opposition from federal regulators.

The deal includes another daily newspaper owned by Freedom, the Press-Enterprise of Riverside, Calif., and Freedom’s real estate assets in Riverside and Santa Ana, Calif., where the Register is based. It would give Tribune three of the largest daily newspapers in the Los Angeles area, and will trigger an antitrust review by federal regulators. Tribune also owns nine other daily newspapers, including the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Tribune Publishing’s bid is subject to bankruptcy court approval at a hearing that is scheduled for March 21. But after the bid was announced, the Department of Justice filed a civil antitrust lawsuit to block the acquisition and seeking a temporary restraining order to prevent the sale from proceeding.

Filed in federal district court in Los Angeles, the DoJ complaint says the Los Angeles Times and the Register together account for 98% of newspaper sales in Orange County. In Riverside County, the Times and Freedom’s newspapers make up 81% of English-language newspaper sales.  "Tribune’s acquisition of its most significant competitor would give it a monopoly over newspaper sales in each county and allow it to increase subscription prices, raise advertising rates and invest less to maintain the quality of its newspapers," it said. .

“If this acquisition is allowed to proceed, newspaper competition will be eliminated and readers and advertisers in Orange and Riverside Counties will suffer,” said Assistant Attorney General Bill Baer of the Justice Department’s antitrust division.  “Newspapers continue to play an important role in the dissemination of news and information to readers and remain an important vehicle for advertisers.  The Antitrust Division is committed to ensuring that competition in this important industry is protected.”

Tribune's interest in Freedom's assets was widely known. In November, Tribune, based in Chicago, offered $3 million to fund operations and the bankruptcy case of Freedom merely days after the privately held company filed for bankruptcy protection and made assets available to bids from interested parties.

Tribune's competitors for Freedom's assets included an investor group led by Freedom CEO Rich Mirman and Digital First Media, which owns two dailies in Southern California, the Los Angeles Daily News and Long Beach-Press-Telegram.

If it completes the deal, Tribune doesn't have to assume the Register's pension plan, the Register reported. The liability would be taken over by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the federal agency that guarantees pension payments.

“The successful bid for the business of Freedom Communications will allow the Orange County Register and the Press-Enterprise to continue providing a distinct local voice in their communities and deliver premium news and information to consumers across Southern California,” said Justin Dearborn, CEO of Tribune Publishing.

Tribune's aggressive bidding comes merely weeks after the company's management and ownership were overhauled. Michael Ferro, the Chicago businessman who owns and controls the Chicago Sun-Times, paid $44.4 million for a 16.6% stake in Tribune Publishing, in a move that gave him control over the city's two largest newspapers. After buying Tribune, Ferro said he has "relinquished all operating involvement" with the Sun-Times.

Ferro joined Tribune Publishing's board of directors as non-executive chairman, but has been active in stirring changes at the company. About three weeks after he bought the stake, Ferro replaced Tribune's CEO Jack Griffin with his longtime business associate, Dearborn.

Freedom is familiar bankruptcy courts. It filed for bankruptcy protection in 2009 and emerged from it several months later after three investment companies — Alden Global Capital, Angelo Gordon & Co. and Luxor Capital Group — bought the company.

Local businessman Aaron Kushner bought Freedom and the Register in 2012 for about $50 million and later paid an additional $27.3 million to buy the Press-Enterprise. Betting big on the sustainability of print readership, he began expanding the Register's operations, eventually launching the Los Angeles edition of the Register. With losses mounting, Kushner left the company last year in March.

Mirman, a former casino marketing executive who joined the company in October, 2014 as interim publisher and CEO of the Register and the the Press-Enterprise, replaced Kushner as CEO of Freedom and began running daily operations.

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One of the hottest teen brands of all time is getting closer to extinction

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But it has lost popularity with teens — look no further than its dismal results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, and the entirety of the year.

Comparable sales, including e-commerce, were down 6.7% compared to this time last year. Net sales were down 16.1%.

This comes on the heels of a rough year. Comparable sales for all of fiscal 2015 were down 8.6%, and net sales for the entirety of fiscal 2015 were down 18%.

Shares were down 46% after earnings.

But terrible sales do not happen out of nowhere — a company has to make missteps.

Aeropostale is guilty of of one major mistake: it is not keeping up with its target customers. In fact, it seems stuck in a time capsule.

"Certainly, some of the decline is down to the challenging conditions within the teen fashion segment, but this 'excuse’ is far less compelling than it once was – not least because other players in the market, including AEO, are successfully rebuilding," Harrison wrote. "In our view, the majority of the blame for poor performance lies squarely with Aero which has failed to realign itself to the changing fashion demands of younger shoppers. Against this backdrop Aero has a range that looks more at home in the mid 2000s than 2015," Carter Harrison, retail analyst, wrote in a note to clients after third quarter earnings for fiscal 2015.

Since clothes aren't selling, Aeropostale has to resort to constant discounts to try to clear its inventory.

"This loss of customers has weakened turnover of inventory which has left stores crowded with merchandise – something which further detracts from the shopping experience and has seen many shoppers defect to fast fashion rivals. In response, Aero has attempted to stimulate demand and clear stock with heavy discounts and promotions. However, as the problem lies with product design and mix, rather than with pricing, the impact on sales has been negligible," Harrison wrote at the time.A woman walks past an Aeropostale store in Times Square in New York, July 27, 2012. REUTERS/Andrew Burton Thomson ReutersWoman walks past an Aeropostale store in Times Square in New YorkYet interestingly enough, Aeropostale has been desperately trying to appeal to young people — the retailer secured popular YouTube personality Bethany Mota for her own collections last year and has curated a blog with a Pinterest-friendly aesthetic. These efforts are just failing to resonate with the brand's target customers.

"To be fair to Aero, the misalignment of the range is not from a lack of trying. Over the past couple of years the company has brought in a whole raft of brands, including Tokyo Darling and Bethany Mota, but has seemingly done so without much consideration of the holistic proposition. The result is that Aero now has a very jumbled and confusing assortment and no real distinct point of view and has lost customers as a result," Harrison wrote.

A recent survey proved that teens are fleeing the brand in droves.

Piper Jaffray surveyed teens to find out where they are — and aren't — shopping in its semiannual Taking Stock With Teens Survey.

The brand ranked at the top for brands that upper-income females no longer wear. Between 22 and 32% of teens surveyed over the past two years say they no longer shop there.

Piper Jaffray losing favor results fall 2015Piper Jaffray

And it didn't rank too favorably for upper-income males, either — although the brand is in not as dire straits with men as it is with women.

piper jaffray upper income teens fall 2015Piper JaffrayTo add insult to the injury, the New York Stock gave Aeropostale a listing warning in late September, as its shares have dipped below $1.

However, CEO Julian Geiger seems optimistic about what's coming up for Aeropostale, despite some current setbacks. He said in a press release:

"The business trend has improved significantly since we introduced our spring merchandise assortments and launched our factory store initiative.  Under normal conditions, we would be very optimistic about our potential for financial growth throughout the first half of 2016.  Regrettably, our short-term visibility is limited by our current vendor dispute."

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Executive fired after opposing 5000% drug price hike

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MARTIN SHKRELI

A former vice president of the drugmaker that drew national criticism for raising the price of a parasite-fighting medication by 5,000% testified Thursday he was fired weeks after telling CEO Martin Shkreli the increase "was not justified."

Howard Dorfman, also the former top lawyer for Turing Pharmaceuticals, told a Senate committee he joined managers who told Shkreli and other company officials that hiking the price from $13.50 per pill to $750 per pill "would have a severely negative impact on Turing's business and reputation."

He said Shkreli, who later resigned from Turing and now faces unrelated federal securities fraud charges, rejected the recommendation, saying "no one cares about price increases."

"Mr. Shkreli told me that he was the most knowledgeable person with regard to this business model," Dorfman told the Senate Special Committee on Aging during the panel's second hearing about price spikes on decades-old drugs. "That I was seriously misinformed — despite my 30 years in the industry."

Benjamin Brafman, Shkreli's attorney in the fraud case, declined to comment. Shkreli, 33, who has pleaded not guilty, re-tweeted a reference to hearing testimony that he got no salary while serving as Turing's CEO.

Congressional testimony subpoenaed records show Shkreli led the 2015 price-hike push for Darapim, a drug available since 1953 and considered the standard medication for treating toxoplasmosis. The disease can cause brain and organ damage, and can result in death, for those with weakened immune systems, including patients infected with the AIDS virus, pregnant women and newborns.

The increase, approved even though Turing paid none of the original expense for researching and developing the medication, sparked condemnation from medical caregivers, patients and even some 2016 presidential candidates. The decision also made Shkreli a lightning rod for a national debate about drug pricing and distribution policies.

Shannon Weston told the Senate panel she and husband Joshua looked into seeking a second mortgage in 2015 when told a year's supply of Daraprim to treat toxoplasmosis in their newborn daughter, Isla, would cost $360,000. Their medical insurer declined to pay the bill, she testified.

"I was hopeless and depressed at the thought of what would happen to my perfect little girl if I was not able to help her," said Weston. "I truly felt like I had failed her in the worst possible way."

The couple ultimately managed to secure at least a year's supply of the drug for $200 a month from the University of North Carolina Medical Center's pharmacy, said Weston. Some patients with toxoplasmosis require treatment for a year or more.

Committee members questioned two current Turing executives about the price increase, asking whether they felt the decision was justified.

"It's important to note that we have put in place discounts and support programs that mean ability to pay should never be a barrier to access," said testified Ron Tilles, who succeeded Shkreli as CEO. Two-thirds of Daraprim sales go to federal and state programs "that pay Turing  one penny per pill," he added.

Committee Chairwoman Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said Turing is one of several drugmakers that acquired long-established remedies and then imposed steep price increases.

"Whether or not these companies’ actions are legal, their behavior harms patients, represents a market failure, and is a call to action," said Collins.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., the committee's ranking Democrat, said the panel would seek legislative action to ban such drug-pricing policies.

"We're not done," said McCaskill.

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Shell, Saudi Aramco to Break Up U.S. Fuel Venture

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Oil giants Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Saudi Arabian Oil Co. plan to end their long-standing fuel partnership, putting ownership of the biggest refinery in the U.S. in Saudi Arabia's hands.

Shell and Saudi Aramco formed their Motiva joint venture nearly two decades ago and spent $10 billion to double the size of their plant in Port Arthur, Texas, in 2012. The move made the 600,000 barrel-a-day fuel factory the largest in America; a significant portion of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel produced every day is exported to overseas markets.

Saudi officials in January floated the idea that shares of the state-owned oil company might be sold in a public offering, amid a broader push to privatize state-run companies that coincides with a protracted slump in oil prices.

The Motiva split could help pave the way for such an equity offering, while also giving Shell assets that it could place in its tax-advantaged master limited partnership, said Sam Margolin, an energy analyst at Cowen & Co.

On Wednesday, the companies said they had signed a nonbinding letter of intent and had preliminarily agreed to divvy up three Gulf Coast refineries between the companies. Shell would retain two plants with a combined capacity to process 465,000 barrels of oil a day in Louisiana where it also runs a chemical complex, as well as nine distribution terminals.
Saudi Aramco would take the Port Arthur refinery along with 26 fuel terminals.

Under the proposal, Saudi Refining also would have an exclusive, long-term license to sell gasoline and diesel under the Shell brand in Texas, most of the Mississippi Valley, the Southeast and the mid-Atlantic markets. Shell would retain its branded markets in Florida, Louisiana and the Northeastern region. No additional details were disclosed.

Motiva was formed in 1998 by Shell Oil Co., Texaco Inc. and Saudi Aramco, combining assets of their Eastern and Gulf Coast refining and marketing businesses. Under the terms of the initial agreement, Houston-based Shell Oil, a unit of Royal Dutch Shell, owned 35% of Motiva, while Texaco and an Aramco affiliate each held a 32.5% stake.

Texaco sold its stake in Motiva as part of its merger with Chevron Corp. Shell and Aramco have run Motiva as a joint partnership since 2002.
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Nike’s first official self-tying sneakers go on sale this year

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Nike made a number of new product announcements at a glitzy event in New York yesterday, but perhaps the most exciting revelation was that the company is finally bringing a pair of self-tying sneakers to market — just like in that movie.

While Nike has teased prototypes and versions of the shoe from Back to the Future 2 in the past, with the HyperAdapt 1.0, the American sports apparel giant is finally bringing a pair of the futuristic wonders to market for anyone to buy. The sneakers sport “adaptive lacing” technology, which can automatically adjust the snugness of the shoe. “When you step in, your heel will hit a sensor and the system will automatically tighten,” said Tiffany Beers, Nike’s senior innovator, in a press release. “Then there are two buttons on the side to tighten and loosen. You can adjust it until it’s perfect.”

Essentially, wearers of the shoe can make quick “micro-adjustments,” which is much quicker than untying and retying the shoe altogether — a process that may preclude users from making the adjustment at all. The new system also means that the age-old calamity of tripping over loose laces could soon be a thing of the past.

Nike HyperAdapt 1.0Michael J. Fox, star of the Back to the Future trilogy, was presented with a version of these shoes last year to mark the 30th anniversary of the first movie. Though a limited number of these “Nike Mag” sneakers are being made available to buy at auction, the HyperAdapt 1.0 represent a final incarnation that’s ready for mass-market distribution. In other words, science fiction is about to become science fact.

Nike explains:  The process saw Beers brainstorming with a group of engineers intent on testing her theories. They first came up with a snowboard boot featuring an external generator. While far from the ideal, it was the first of a series of strides toward Beers and Hatfield’s original goal: to embed the technical components into such a small space that the design moves with the body and absorbs the same force the athlete is facing.

While some may argue that self-tying sneakers is simply a way for lazy people to be ever more lazy, Nike is adamant that the system offers many benefits beyond saving you a few priceless seconds, particularly for serious athletes. “It’s a platform,” said esteemed Nike designer Tinker Hatfield. “Something that helps envision a world in which product changes as the athlete changes. It is amazing to consider a shoe that senses what the body needs in real-time. That eliminates a multitude of distractions, including mental attrition, and thus truly benefits performance.”

In other words, you can easily adjust a shoe if, say, your foot expands due to it heating up during a run — there’s no need to mess around with laces, just tap a button. Though the process for now is still manual, this could change.

“Wouldn’t it be great if a shoe, in the future, could sense when you needed to have it tighter or looser?,” continued Hatfield. “Could it take you even tighter than you’d normally go if it senses you really need extra snugness in a quick maneuver? That’s where we’re headed. In the future, product will come alive.”

The HyperAdapt 1.0 will be available to Nike+ members “beginning Holiday 2016,” according to Nike, and will come in three colors. The company hasn’t given an indication of price as of yet. Check out the official promo video below.

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Eurowings, Lufthansa’s Budget Service, Off to a Rocky Start

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A check-in line for Lufthansa’s low-cost brand Eurowings ahead of Eurowings’ first long-haul flight to Havana, Cuba, at Cologne-Bonn airport, Germany.

But his anger over his first experience flying across the Atlantic on Eurowings, Lufthansa’s new budget airline, remains as vivid as it was on the day he and 300 fellow passengers landed back in Germany — 68 hours late.

“It was an end-to-end disaster,” Mr. Haug, 53, said of the two-week trip to Varadero, on Cuba’s northern coast. The trip was also delayed by a full day at the beginning when Eurowings canceled his outbound flight to Cuba from Cologne.

“I was told this was a new Lufthansa airline, so I expected it to at least be reliable,” said Mr. Haug, a steel salesman from Lauffen am Neckar, near Stuttgart. “Instead it was just cheap, cheap, cheap.”

Eurowings, which analysts say still has too few planes to support its overseas ambitions, cited technical problems with its aircraft.

The extreme delays Mr. Haug experienced were not an isolated case. In January alone, up to one-third of Eurowings’ flights outside Europe were delayed or canceled, affecting hundreds of passengers and generating weeks of bad publicity.

It was an inauspicious beginning for Eurowings, which rolled out Germany’s first no-frills long-haul air service in November, offering one-way fares to destinations in the Caribbean and Thailand for as little as 99 euros, or $110.

For Lufthansa, which made expansion of its low-fare operations a key pillar of its long-term strategy, unhappy Eurowings customers are part of a long list of headaches as the German airline group confronts competition from leaner rivals like Ryanair and EasyJet in the lucrative market serving German air travelers.

A decision in 2012 to shift most of Lufthansa’s domestic German flights to another discount brand, Germanwings — where employee salaries and benefits were lower — contributed around €1.5 billion in cost savings since then. But it met stiff resistance from pilots and other labor unions.

Strikes over the past two years have shaved about €500 million from Lufthansa’s operating profit during that span and inconvenienced tens of thousands of travelers.

The crash in March 2015 of a Germanwings jet by the plane’s suicidal co-pilot prompted Lufthansa to accelerate a planned rebranding of Germanwings under the Eurowings name — a move that coincided with the start of Eurowings’ new long-haul services.

“The perception is that Lufthansa is trying to juggle too many balls at the same time,” said John Strickland, an aviation industry consultant in London.

Lufthansa said on Thursday that its Eurowings business made an adjusted operating profit of €8 million in 2015, on revenues of €1.9 billion. That contributed to an overall 55 percent improvement in the Lufthansa group’s operating profit, to €1.8 billion, from €1.2 billion in 2014. Annual group sales rose by 6.8 percent to €32 billion.

Shares in the Lufthansa Group fell more than 5 percent in early trading on Thursday.

Lufthansa aims to build Eurowings, based in Düsseldorf, into Europe’s third-largest budget airline by number of passengers after Ryanair and EasyJet in the coming years. It is a goal that analysts said would be easily achieved as Lufthansa eventually makes Eurowings the carrier for all flights that do not originate or land in its main Frankfurt and Munich hubs.

But it remains unclear whether Eurowings will be able to bring its operating costs down by the 40 percent needed to make its services competitive with its European rivals, analysts said.

Although fuel prices have fallen substantially over the past two years, the group’s labor costs have remained stubbornly high as unions fight to slow the pace of transition. By the end of next year, for example, Lufthansa expects the Eurowings fleet to triple in size, to 89 aircraft. But only one-fifth of those planes will be flown by pilots working under newer, more flexible contracts, while the majority continue to work under their Lufthansa contracts until retirement.

“Lufthansa is a large group with tremendous network coverage,” said Chris Tarry, an analyst at Ctaira, a British aviation consulting firm. “But at the end of the day, it has got to be profitable,” he said of Eurowings. “Can they bring their costs down low enough, and fast enough, to make it work?”

Europe’s established low-cost rivals, meanwhile, are keeping up the pressure. Last month, Ryanair, which holds just 5 percent of the market in Germany, announced plans for aggressive expansion there, doubling the size of its operations at Schönefeld Airport outside Berlin, and adding new bases near Hamburg and Nuremberg.

EasyJet, too, has recently added flights to Berlin and Stuttgart. Transavia, a budget unit of Air France-KLM, opened its first German base in Munich this month.

Beyond Europe, the troubled debut of Eurowings’ long-haul services raised questions about whether cost concerns may have led Lufthansa to underinvest in the start-up, analysts said.

A decision to serve eight far-flung destinations with just two leased Airbus A330 aircraft quickly proved unwieldy, for example. Technical problems grounded one of the planes on multiple occasions, resulting in repeated delays and cancellations, including the one that left Mr. Haug stranded in Cuba for three days. Under European passenger rights rules, affected travelers were eligible for compensation of up to €600 each.

“Given that this is the creation of a major airline group known for its German style of reliability, it is surprising that they would have started off a seemingly ambitious project with such a small fleet,” Mr. Strickland, the consultant in London, said. “It’s as if Lufthansa wants to prove they’re prepared to let this fledgling fend for itself.”

Although Eurowings plans to add two more jets to its wide-body fleet by the summer — and to reach seven planes by the end of 2017 — the stumbling start has slowed its long-haul expansion. Flights from Cologne to Las Vegas and Boston, originally planned to begin in May, have been postponed until June.

A much promoted service to Tehran that was due to begin this month has been shelved indefinitely.

Mr. Haug, meanwhile, said he was uncertain whether he would fly again with Eurowings after the Cuba fiasco. He said he was holding onto the €250 flight voucher that he and other passengers received, together with an apology, from the airline.

“I sometimes tell my wife that we could use it for a long weekend in Rome,” Mr. Haug said. “But I worry that it might turn out to be a very long weekend.”

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ES Morning Update March 17th 2016

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Shorter rising trendline of resistance was hit yesterday as suggested it might.

Lower rising trendline of support was also hit both yesterday and a 2nd time this premarket Thursday.

MACD's have 4 lower highs on this 2 hour chart, creating Quadruple Negative Divergence.  Other time frames have similar divergences.

Yesterday we rallied after the FOMC meeting to "almost" fill the 2038 gap on the SPX from January 2nd.  Today we have one more shot at doing just that by making a slightly higher high again and probably hitting the shorter rising trendline one more time.  Whether this happens or not is unknown of course I'll be looking to average into some shorts both today and Friday as we should be topping this week and the next 2 weeks (or more) should start going down and making lower highs on the rallies back up.

While I'm not expecting some "fall off a cliff" move next week I am expecting the market to start a series of lower lows and lower highs next week.  So odds are strong that this week we'll see a very important high that should allow for another big drop toward that 1800 area lows again.  It's too early to know how long that will take so I'll just be taking shorts on those lower highs from each bounce and exiting when I see the lower support level hit, as I don't see some straight down move starting for awhile.

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