As you all know by now, the government likes to sell the dollar to pump up the market.  And it’s no mistake that the dollar has been pounded hard lately.  However, there is huge support coming in just a hair under todays’ close.  Look at that lower rising trend line (in blue) that starts from back in December of last year.

If it breaks, then the market is off to the moon, but if it holds… and bounces off of it, then the market will fall.  There is still a little bit of downside left, before it actually touches it… but not much.  I’d give it one to two more days at most.  That means that Monday could still be an up day, if the job’s numbers’ are viewed as positive tomorrow?

Of course I’d expect the numbers to already be “baked into the cake”… so to speak.  Meaning that regardless of what they actually are, the market has already picked the next move.  If todays’ new high wasn’t yet enough to squeeze out the last bear, then a quick pop on Monday could still happen… before the much anticipated sell off occurs.

Not that the sell off is guaranteed, but it’s the likely next move… before any summer rally to 1200 plus occurs.  So now we wait for the jobs numbers tomorrow, and then to see how the market views them next Monday.  Regardless of the number’s, the media will have 3 day’s to turn them into something positive.  I think the best we can hope for… is a flat close on Monday.  That would be a huge relief for the bears, as every Monday since I don’t know when… since I was born?  … has been bullish.

I’d had about enough of the Bullish BS… how about you?

Red

The Bulls have certainly been having their fun these last few weeks.  They tease the bear by acting like they are going to let him have a little fun.  This morning was no different as the bulls teased the bear by selling off on the Bad ADP job’s numbers, only to rally back most of the loss throughout the rest of the day.

Tomorrow should be no different as the light volume should keep the market up.  But I suspect that by next week, the bear will rise again!  The bull won’t know what hit him, as the bear is sneaky and will attack from behind.  Payback will be brutal and swift as bear seeks his revenge.

The government is already preparing us for bad job’s numbers on Friday, by releasing the bad ADP numbers earlier today.  They are lowering the expectations by the market… which could lead everyone to believe that the numbers are really bad, or they could “pull another dead rabbit out of a hat” and beat the estimates largely?  I don’t know which will happen, but a good number (from the part time new hiring of census workers) could also panic the market, as fears of rising interests rates from a growing economy come back into play.

Of course if the numbers are bad, then there is no fear that the government will raise rates, but if they’re too bad… then the market may lose faith in the recovering economy and still sell off?  After all, the supposedly bullish rise in the market was based on a recovering economy (all though we all know that it was based on the PPT buying up the market with printed dollars from the Stimulus plan).

So, my feeling is that the market will sell off next week regardless of what the numbers are.  That’s probably why the government didn’t push up the release to Thursday, or delay them until next Monday.  They know that’s it’s really a “NO Win Situation”, and they are hoping that people will calm down over the 3 day weekend.

I think that it’s a perfect time to also release some other bad political news, or global event to blame the coming sell off on.  Blame it on Greece or some other country… but not the bad or good jobs numbers.  Yes, I guess we could rally higher or trade sideways for another week… but I seriously doubt it.  We are now at 7 days in a row of sideways trading between about 1160 and 1180.

We did that back in the first week of January too… and you see what came next.  It was also about 7 days before a fall to the down side.  Looking back on the daily chart, I see that many times the market would trade sideways, in a tight range, for a week or more before falling hard.  Of course we could have the usual bullish Monday again, but I think we are overdue for a sell off on Monday.

I don’t know if it happens or not, but it certainly would surprise a lot of bulls… and bears.  Ask yourself how many bears will go short over the 3 day weekend?  Not many I would guess?  They are so used too the bullish Monday’s (plus time decay on options) that they will wait until next week before getting short.

It’s hard to say for sure what they are thinking, but I’m sure it’s aim is to steal the money from the new retail bulls, and not to allow the bears to profit from the sell off.  I’d say that they want to steal the bears’ money too, but all the bears are now broke, as they stole that money many weeks ago.

Just basing my decision on the number of days sideways, compared to previous moves in the past, I’d say we are within a couple of days of a big move… which have the odds favoring the downside.  I’m probably going to get short tomorrow if the market rallies.  If it sells off, then I’ll probably wait until Monday for the bounce back up.  However, I do expect the market to float higher on light volume tomorrow.  Not much of course, but higher none the less…

Red

This market is now so ugly it needs “double bagged”!  But, at this point I still have too believe that we will see 11,000 DOW this week, as the bears are now dead and bulls have little resistance to stop them.  This pushes the coming fall out to next week… or the following week, or the following month, or the following year, or after I’m dead and buried.  Maybe it will correct in my next life?  I’m hope I’m reincarnated in the bankster family… as then I’ll know where the market is going.

Writing about this market lately has been extremely challenging as nothing is happening.  Maybe the ADP jobs number will give us some excitement tomorrow?  But, after that… it’s back to being boring for the rest of the day.  Thursday should be just as boring as most traders will leave early for the 3 day holiday weekend.

However, the market is looking really tired now, as each day is having pops and intraday drops… indicating that retail traders are buying the news, and the big institutions are selling on those pops.  I have no doubt that we are still within spitting distance of a big dump in the market, but it seems that it can drink a few more beers before it pukes its’ guts out.

And believe me… this market is seriously drunk now.  It needs too throw up before I do!  Reading the comments from yesterdays’ post had me agreeing that someone needs to puke now… and I rather it be the market then my fellow traders.  So hang in there gang… just a few more spins on the merry go round before the fat pig loses it.

Red

As every minute tick’s by, another grain of sand falls inside the hour glass we call the Stock Market.  Eventually, the sand will all be gone and so will the rally.  But when you ask?  The only people that can answer that question are the insider’s in Goldman Sachs and the Government… which are basically the same entity now anyway.

I’d love too tell my fellow bears that the market is going down hard this week, but it’s not likely to happen.  That jobs report on Friday is probably horrible… which is why they didn’t move it up to Thursday, or out to Monday.  They want to give the Obama Gangster Gang (OGG from now on… kinda cool, isn’t it?) the long 3 day weekend to lie, steal, cheat, manipulate, fabricate, and spin the bad news into something positive, so the market won’t tank on Monday.

With that said, I still think we will see some selling next week.  Don’t know how much, as we might only get to 1150, and reverse back up?  Hard to say on that one.  It’s again… all about volume.  Big volume equals big institutions selling… and that means we are going down further as small moves down aren’t enough profit for them.  They need 5-10% corrections to make it worth their time on swing trades.

Of course they still have Hal (their top secret computer trading program) that manipulates the market up and down daily to steal money from the day traders, by front running the market.  Yes, it’s illegal… but who cares?  They are doing “God’s” work, and seeing what trade orders that are coming down the pipeline, just split seconds before they are executed (allowing Goldman to place their orders ahead of them, at a lower price), is perfectly OK in their eye’s.

What’s the big deal anyway?  Stealing a few billion dollars a year from dumb Americans who are too busy watching American Idol and Jerry Springer, isn’t really a crime… now is it?  Besides, they won’t miss it… just keep them high on legal drugs that the doctor prescribes for every little ache and pain they get from such a tough life of sitting in that uncomfortably arm chair… pressing buttons on the remote control, causing their fingers to go numb as they get brainwashed from the bought and paid for media telling them that it’s safe now to go spend again.

Yes, my dear readers, it’s now safe to go back into the market and spend your last dime on some new electronic toy like the Apple iPhone, iPad, iPod, and iUnbelievably that the public is so iStupid!  Needless to say… the market is likely to trade sideways to higher all week, and will probably hit 11,000 on the Dow.

Next week will have a lot of earnings coming out, and could be the bad news we are looking for?  But, you must understand that the OGG isn’t the only one that can lie and fabricate numbers… so can the CEO’s of those companies announcing earnings.

A correction down to that fake print area around 1075 spx is coming… but when?   Thinking outside the box, and trying to think like the OGG, would have me tanking the market in the summertime, and rallying into the fall/winter season.  This is the opposite of what most people are expecting.  I think we can all agree that if everyone is expecting something to happen… it won’t.

So, what if we sold off in April and rallied back in May and June to put in a double top, or maybe a lower high?  Then sell off early throughout July and August… pass Stimulus package TWO in September, and rally the rest of the year.  Just trying to think like the OGG…

What would Jesus do? What would the OGG do?

Red