I’ll be looking to short tomorrow. Not sure where it will go to but even if it’s not the big wave down there should at least be a 10-20 point pullback. I’m still 50/50 on the big C wave down versus a pullback wave and then another move up next week. But I’ll short it anyway and let the cards fall where they may…
Thanks. Hell of a battle we’ve got going here. Down 275 yesterday…up 275 today. But we found out today the FED still has at least a few tricks up their sleeve. They don’t like the Dow much below 17,000 at all. I think if we’re going to get lower by much,say below SPX 1900..we’re really going to have to get some good back to back down days in a row within 2 weeks tops.
LOL… you’re not kidding there! Thank goodness I didn’t short it. Clearly it was too strong and too fast of a move to stand in front of. I think the wave count “may” have changed now? This chart (from someone else) shows what I’m thinking as well.
On the SPX I’d put the “line in the sand” at 1985 area. A move above it and the low is most likely in. Right now I’ll give it a 50/50 chance of the current 1925 low holding. This move up looks fast and furious just like last Thursday and Friday did, so while the 2nd time around may fool us bears and continue higher I’m not convinced yet that the selling is done.
They squeezed a ton of bears today as I noticed very heavy volume on the SPY during the last couple of hours when the big squeezed happened. I’m not sure how many bears are left above the current level to squeeze? I’m sure there is a lot above that 1985 area but does the market have enough juice to go up from today’s close?
I’m on the sidelines for now to see what happens but if we gap up tomorrow and stay below the 1985 area I’d look to short it for at least a 20 point move back down… if not more? While I don’t know if we’ll get our flush out move to the downside and break 1905 any gap up tomorrow should be worth 10 points minimum on the downside I’d think.
If we gap down (not likely) I’d wait to see what happens. In the past they will have some gap up exhaustion move but there’s nothing to say it’s going to happen tomorrow. Maybe it happens on Friday? Mainly I’m just happy to have NOT be caught short in that squeeze… LOL
Double bottom area of 1926 SPX should lead to a 20-30 point bounce. Then we drop again to hit and pierce the prior low of 1905 SPX. I’m looking for 1890-1900 as a short term bottom.
“Could” bounce the rest of today and into the FOMC meeting Wednesday? It’s just a prior reading of the last meeting but traders still hang on and wait to take a position long or short until they hear what is said (again) it seems.
Therefore the low we have today could hold until after 2pm tomorrow. I see in the technicals of the charts that we could rally (choppy though) the rest of today and into early Wednesday. However, the low is very likely NOT in yet. I think we’ll drop again and take out the 1926 low and possibly the 1905 low very soon… probably by the end of this week.
That implies the Yellen says nothing positive at this meeting and the market then just reacts on a technical (and Elliottwave) bases… which indicates a larger wave C down that takes out the current low.
Next week though is option expiration week and we should rally most of it like we always seem to do. The market makers won’t pay out on all the put holders that are short as we all know they like to steal your money not pay you out. Therefore the reason is clear to the rally and the expected low this Thursday/Friday.
Today is called “Turnaround Tuesday” by many floor traders because of it’s habit of turning around from one direction early in the day to the other direction later in the day. If that plays out again today then the bounce back up before the next big drop should happen in the last half of today.
It has been a strong wave down this morning so I don’t know how much of a bounce we’ll see but bears that missed this move down should get another chance to get short later today I think. But overall it looks pretty good for another visit down to last week’s low of 1926 SPX… if not lower?
I’ll be looking to short tomorrow. Not sure where it will go to but even if it’s not the big wave down there should at least be a 10-20 point pullback. I’m still 50/50 on the big C wave down versus a pullback wave and then another move up next week. But I’ll short it anyway and let the cards fall where they may…
Thanks. Hell of a battle we’ve got going here. Down 275 yesterday…up 275 today. But we found out today the FED still has at least a few tricks up their sleeve. They don’t like the Dow much below 17,000 at all. I think if we’re going to get lower by much,say below SPX 1900..we’re really going to have to get some good back to back down days in a row within 2 weeks tops.
Some past history of what happened after large rallies up: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzdgO5yCQAEdN81.jpg:large
LOL… you’re not kidding there! Thank goodness I didn’t short it. Clearly it was too strong and too fast of a move to stand in front of. I think the wave count “may” have changed now? This chart (from someone else) shows what I’m thinking as well.
http://www.61point8.com/Portals/0/article%20images/20141008/20141008NDX1.png
On the SPX I’d put the “line in the sand” at 1985 area. A move above it and the low is most likely in. Right now I’ll give it a 50/50 chance of the current 1925 low holding. This move up looks fast and furious just like last Thursday and Friday did, so while the 2nd time around may fool us bears and continue higher I’m not convinced yet that the selling is done.
They squeezed a ton of bears today as I noticed very heavy volume on the SPY during the last couple of hours when the big squeezed happened. I’m not sure how many bears are left above the current level to squeeze? I’m sure there is a lot above that 1985 area but does the market have enough juice to go up from today’s close?
I’m on the sidelines for now to see what happens but if we gap up tomorrow and stay below the 1985 area I’d look to short it for at least a 20 point move back down… if not more? While I don’t know if we’ll get our flush out move to the downside and break 1905 any gap up tomorrow should be worth 10 points minimum on the downside I’d think.
If we gap down (not likely) I’d wait to see what happens. In the past they will have some gap up exhaustion move but there’s nothing to say it’s going to happen tomorrow. Maybe it happens on Friday? Mainly I’m just happy to have NOT be caught short in that squeeze… LOL
Might need another ‘after the close’ update after “that” close. 😉
SPX Update: http://screencast.com/t/9cPDvrPf51
Double bottom area of 1926 SPX should lead to a 20-30 point bounce. Then we drop again to hit and pierce the prior low of 1905 SPX. I’m looking for 1890-1900 as a short term bottom.
“Could” bounce the rest of today and into the FOMC meeting Wednesday? It’s just a prior reading of the last meeting but traders still hang on and wait to take a position long or short until they hear what is said (again) it seems.
Therefore the low we have today could hold until after 2pm tomorrow. I see in the technicals of the charts that we could rally (choppy though) the rest of today and into early Wednesday. However, the low is very likely NOT in yet. I think we’ll drop again and take out the 1926 low and possibly the 1905 low very soon… probably by the end of this week.
That implies the Yellen says nothing positive at this meeting and the market then just reacts on a technical (and Elliottwave) bases… which indicates a larger wave C down that takes out the current low.
Next week though is option expiration week and we should rally most of it like we always seem to do. The market makers won’t pay out on all the put holders that are short as we all know they like to steal your money not pay you out. Therefore the reason is clear to the rally and the expected low this Thursday/Friday.
Today is called “Turnaround Tuesday” by many floor traders because of it’s habit of turning around from one direction early in the day to the other direction later in the day. If that plays out again today then the bounce back up before the next big drop should happen in the last half of today.
It has been a strong wave down this morning so I don’t know how much of a bounce we’ll see but bears that missed this move down should get another chance to get short later today I think. But overall it looks pretty good for another visit down to last week’s low of 1926 SPX… if not lower?
Life is just a fantasy (and so is the stock market) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhddPnxDWvI