I was expecting more on the upside but the rally died out at the double top area around 1985 SPX. The selloff to follow wasn’t something i was expecting… at least not as big. The longer this sideways chop continues the more bearish the market is. Failure today to hold the high isn’t good for the bulls.
While there’s still some time later this week to rally it’s not looking a promising as it looked before today. One big problem is the IWM not rallying up with the SPX. The QQQ’s rallied up and was the strongest it appears but ever day that goes by without a breakout to the upside says the bears are winning and indicate we could break the 2011 rising trendline of support on the weekly chart this Friday if the bulls don’t kick it in gear soon.
ok..just read it. 🙂 Yea hard to say…but if there is a BIG trade coming soon..I’ll still say it’s to the downside.Hope we see that 1905 again soon for a re-test and then we should really find out “whats what” going into the Oct/Nov period. Hold or fold time. I’ll swing by tmrw and give my thoughts again.
I get the feeling there won’t be any more good short entries this week. It looks (and feels) like the shorts are getting tired as the bulls keep buying every selloff. The moves down aren’t lasting as long either as this mornings move was quickly reversed within the first hour.
I would only take a short trade if we gaped up to hit the falling trendline around 1984-1985 SPX Tuesday morning. It’s not likely the bulls will get through it if they have to gap up to hit it. That is the highest odds trade of working for a short.
However, SkyNet doesn’t like to give out high odds trades to us bears (does for the bulls a lot though), which tells me they might just drop tomorrow morning again and let that falling trendline of resistance drift lower before they attempt another run up to it and through it. Since it’s around 1984-1985 today at the close, but was around 1990 at the open this projects it to fall to 1980 area by the close on Tuesday.
So if they go down again tomorrow morning and either make a new low or slightly higher high that downside move should again be finished early in the morning allowing them to do the old “Turn-around-Tuesday” dance and rally into the rest of the day.
By the close it could be back up to that falling trendline of resistance again, but since it’s coming in lower (again, I’m guessing it will be around 1980 then) it could “possibly” push through it or stop at it at the end of the day.
If it stops at it then we should expect them to gap up over it on Wednesday and carry that strong move up into Thursday morning. SkyNet is being very tricky right now and it’s hard to figure out what’s coming next. But I’d look to short a gap up Tuesday if provided. And strangely, I’d look to go long a gap down with a retest (slightly higher or slightly lower low) as we are much closer to a multi-day rally starting then another multi-day selloff now.
I’m on the fence on which one will happen but I do think we only have one more lower low (double bottom?) coming before we have a rally to squeeze out these bears. Then of course I’d expect another move back down as I do believe we will take out the 1905 low by the end of this month. But they won’t make it easy to spot and trade…. that’s for sure!
I don’t see a strong signal here either way on “that” close about tmrw morning as more likely being a gap up..or gap down. Right now the MM’s like the SPX in this tight 40 pt range just under the ATH’s….and for placating the public keeping the market headlines from sounding negative….they are going to extraordinary measures to keep the Dow closing below 17,000 so far.- Certainly no strong bear signal here yet…but I’ll bet we don’t get back near the highs again either.- I don’t know..but if I had to bet my life on it..I think I’d bet they “try” and take her down again tomorrow. We shall see.
Looking good for the gap up tomorrow. “Could” go higher then I previously thought (1985 was my first thinking). Still though, I think it’s a high odds short for a move down. However, I might not make a lower low as I suggested earlier.
Too soon to tell on that one. First let’s see if it gaps up, and how high? From the 1964 low to the 1980 high today is 16 points. If that was an A wave up and then choppy sideways down throughout midday was the B wave, with the C wave just starting from the 1970 low then we could see 25 points up in total to end that wave.
That is around 1995 for the ABC wave up from today’s 1964 low. If that plays out then we should do the opposite of what I thought earlier and start a nasty move down later this week to break the current low. Not sure if that is going to play out that way or not but it’s possible.
On the flip side a move up to just under the falling trendline of resistance (around 1984 into the close today) should indicate that we’ll rollover tomorrow as previously thought and make that lower low later Tuesday afternoon.
Then we should rally some into the close I’d think and start a choppy rally up into the rest of the week with Friday being the best “up” day. This would be the more likely move I think as I just don’t see them being ready to close the week out below the rising trendline of support from 2011, which is around 1960 area.
We need to at the very least re-test that Aug 7th SPX low of about 1904/1905 soon or I doubt we get much done to the downside anytime soon. Obviously shorts just lost the edge again big time…as they just cut the market decline in half…and we are way above Dow 17,000 again.- Hell…closing green today is not off tee table now.
I was expecting more on the upside but the rally died out at the double top area around 1985 SPX. The selloff to follow wasn’t something i was expecting… at least not as big. The longer this sideways chop continues the more bearish the market is. Failure today to hold the high isn’t good for the bulls.
While there’s still some time later this week to rally it’s not looking a promising as it looked before today. One big problem is the IWM not rallying up with the SPX. The QQQ’s rallied up and was the strongest it appears but ever day that goes by without a breakout to the upside says the bears are winning and indicate we could break the 2011 rising trendline of support on the weekly chart this Friday if the bulls don’t kick it in gear soon.
Morning Market update: http://screencast.com/t/BH4fIKzY6w
ok..just read it. 🙂 Yea hard to say…but if there is a BIG trade coming soon..I’ll still say it’s to the downside.Hope we see that 1905 again soon for a re-test and then we should really find out “whats what” going into the Oct/Nov period. Hold or fold time. I’ll swing by tmrw and give my thoughts again.
LOL… just posted a new comment above basically agreeing with your thoughts.
I get the feeling there won’t be any more good short entries this week. It looks (and feels) like the shorts are getting tired as the bulls keep buying every selloff. The moves down aren’t lasting as long either as this mornings move was quickly reversed within the first hour.
I would only take a short trade if we gaped up to hit the falling trendline around 1984-1985 SPX Tuesday morning. It’s not likely the bulls will get through it if they have to gap up to hit it. That is the highest odds trade of working for a short.
However, SkyNet doesn’t like to give out high odds trades to us bears (does for the bulls a lot though), which tells me they might just drop tomorrow morning again and let that falling trendline of resistance drift lower before they attempt another run up to it and through it. Since it’s around 1984-1985 today at the close, but was around 1990 at the open this projects it to fall to 1980 area by the close on Tuesday.
So if they go down again tomorrow morning and either make a new low or slightly higher high that downside move should again be finished early in the morning allowing them to do the old “Turn-around-Tuesday” dance and rally into the rest of the day.
By the close it could be back up to that falling trendline of resistance again, but since it’s coming in lower (again, I’m guessing it will be around 1980 then) it could “possibly” push through it or stop at it at the end of the day.
If it stops at it then we should expect them to gap up over it on Wednesday and carry that strong move up into Thursday morning. SkyNet is being very tricky right now and it’s hard to figure out what’s coming next. But I’d look to short a gap up Tuesday if provided. And strangely, I’d look to go long a gap down with a retest (slightly higher or slightly lower low) as we are much closer to a multi-day rally starting then another multi-day selloff now.
I’m on the fence on which one will happen but I do think we only have one more lower low (double bottom?) coming before we have a rally to squeeze out these bears. Then of course I’d expect another move back down as I do believe we will take out the 1905 low by the end of this month. But they won’t make it easy to spot and trade…. that’s for sure!
That was supposed to..extraordinary measures to keep the Dow from closing BELOW 17,000 of course. Just changed it.
I don’t see a strong signal here either way on “that” close about tmrw morning as more likely being a gap up..or gap down. Right now the MM’s like the SPX in this tight 40 pt range just under the ATH’s….and for placating the public keeping the market headlines from sounding negative….they are going to extraordinary measures to keep the Dow closing below 17,000 so far.- Certainly no strong bear signal here yet…but I’ll bet we don’t get back near the highs again either.- I don’t know..but if I had to bet my life on it..I think I’d bet they “try” and take her down again tomorrow. We shall see.
Looking good for the gap up tomorrow. “Could” go higher then I previously thought (1985 was my first thinking). Still though, I think it’s a high odds short for a move down. However, I might not make a lower low as I suggested earlier.
Too soon to tell on that one. First let’s see if it gaps up, and how high? From the 1964 low to the 1980 high today is 16 points. If that was an A wave up and then choppy sideways down throughout midday was the B wave, with the C wave just starting from the 1970 low then we could see 25 points up in total to end that wave.
That is around 1995 for the ABC wave up from today’s 1964 low. If that plays out then we should do the opposite of what I thought earlier and start a nasty move down later this week to break the current low. Not sure if that is going to play out that way or not but it’s possible.
On the flip side a move up to just under the falling trendline of resistance (around 1984 into the close today) should indicate that we’ll rollover tomorrow as previously thought and make that lower low later Tuesday afternoon.
Then we should rally some into the close I’d think and start a choppy rally up into the rest of the week with Friday being the best “up” day. This would be the more likely move I think as I just don’t see them being ready to close the week out below the rising trendline of support from 2011, which is around 1960 area.
We need to at the very least re-test that Aug 7th SPX low of about 1904/1905 soon or I doubt we get much done to the downside anytime soon. Obviously shorts just lost the edge again big time…as they just cut the market decline in half…and we are way above Dow 17,000 again.- Hell…closing green today is not off tee table now.
“If” we pop higher tomorrow I do think it will reverse and drop the rest of the day… and “likely” take out the current low.